Valero Energy Corporation research snapshot
VLO AI stock analysis currently reads Valero Energy as one of the largest independent refiners in North America and the U.K., with renewable diesel exposure through the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture, 12 ethanol plants, and a history of disciplined cash returns. The August 2, 2026 snapshot follows a record second quarter reported on July 30, 2026, with $3.7 billion of net income attributable to Valero stockholders and $12.62 of EPS, driven by extremely wide refining margins amid Middle East tensions. The stock closed at $312.90 on July 31, 2026, up roughly 124.5% over 52 weeks and near its 52-week high of $320.24. The VLO AI stock forecast therefore uses scenario ranges, not a price promise, because the current price already prices in continued strength in crack spreads, and analyst consensus targets around $304 sit below the current price. The variables that matter most are refining margins, throughput, clean fuel policy, DGD margins, buybacks, debt, and whether the market treats record earnings as durable.
Current price
$312.90 close reference
Market cap
$90.09 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
High-quality refiner with record Q2 2026 earnings, strong cash returns, and a valuation that already prices in wide refining margins
Trend status
Uptrend, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and near the 52-week high of $320.24
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Valero turns crude oil and feedstocks into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and ethanol through a large refining, logistics, and low-carbon system that earns its cash when product margins are wide. | High |
| Moat | Scale, Gulf Coast export access, complex refining assets, logistics, feedstock flexibility, DGD renewable diesel, and operating know-how support the moat, but end-market prices are commodity-driven and margins remain cyclical. | Medium-high |
| Management | Lane Riggs leads a framework focused on operational excellence, balance-sheet strength, disciplined capital investment, dividends, and buybacks. The key test is capital discipline while margins sit near a record high. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $122.69 billion and net income was $2.35 billion. Q2 2026 was a record with $3.7 billion of net income and $12.62 of EPS, lifting TTM EPS to about $23.93. | High |
| Valuation | At $312.90, VLO screens at 13.08x TTM EPS, 8.46x forward EPS, 3.60x book, 8.90x free cash flow, and a 1.53% dividend yield using cross-checked data. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is above the 50-day moving average near $270.36 and the 200-day average near $218.58, with RSI near 66.37 and the price near the 52-week high of $320.24. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are crack spread normalization, weaker demand, crude differential shifts, refinery outages, clean fuel credit volatility, policy risk, and paying a high multiple for peak-cycle earnings. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the data is source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because refiners can reprice quickly when margins roll over. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | VLO is a strong operator with record earnings, but the current price already reflects strong margins, so the margin of safety depends on sustained crack spreads and continued cash returns. | Medium |
VLO AI stock forecast
The VLO AI stock forecast is scenario-based because Valero earnings swing with crack spreads, crude differentials, throughput, renewable diesel margins, ethanol margins, and capital returns. Using the $312.90 close reference, TTM EPS of about $23.93, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to roughly $88 in a bear case, $249 in a base case, and $437 in a bullish case before dividends. The current price of $312.90 sits above the base case, which means the market is already paying for sustained refining strength, so additional upside requires earnings and crack spreads to beat conservative assumptions.
$360 to $450 before dividends
More likely if crack spreads stay wide through the second half of 2026, Middle East supply disruption keeps export demand firm, VLO keeps throughput high, DGD and ethanol margins improve, buybacks reduce shares, and the market values earnings above the low-cycle refiner multiple range.
$230 to $290 before dividends
More likely if earnings stay strong near TTM levels but margins partially normalize, the market uses a single-digit to low-teens refiner multiple, and cash returns support total return without preventing a cyclical drawdown from the record quarter.
$70 to $110 before dividends
More likely if crack spreads fall sharply as geopolitical risk fades, crude differentials move against Valero, renewable diesel credits weaken, refinery downtime rises, policy costs increase, and investors price VLO on lower normalized earnings.
VLO AI technical analysis
VLO AI technical analysis is strong but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $312.90 close on July 31, 2026, a 52-week range of $130.78 to $320.24, a 50-day moving average near $270.36, a 200-day moving average near $218.58, RSI near 66.37, and 20-day average volume near 2.70 million shares. The uptrend is intact and the price is near the high, but support sits far below if refining headlines reverse.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $312.90 close | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 closing price, with an after-hours print near $316.37. |
| 52-week context | $130.78 to $320.24 | The 52-week range shows the size of the rally and places the current price near the top of the range. |
| Immediate support | $306 to $312 | This zone covers the July 31 day low near $306.25 and the recent breakout area, and it is the first test on any pullback. |
| Trend support | $270 to $280 | This range brackets the 50-day moving average near $270.36 and marks the line between trend-following and risk review. |
| Long-term support | $218 to $230 | This range brackets the 200-day moving average near $218.58 and marks a deeper cycle-risk support zone. |
| Near resistance | $320 to $325 | The 52-week high of $320.24 is the immediate test. A close above it would open price discovery. |
| Upper resistance | $340 to $360 | This is the zone where several analysts set targets after the record quarter, including UBS near $355, Wells Fargo near $356, and Goldman Sachs near $357. It is a scenario zone, not a price promise. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $270.36, 200-day near $218.58 | Holding above both averages keeps the uptrend intact. A break below the 50-day average would shift the setup from trend-following to risk review. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66.37 | Momentum is strong and near overbought, which can persist in a breakout but raises pullback risk. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 2.70 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because refiners can move quickly around crack spreads, crude prices, and earnings. |
| Volatility | Next earnings near late October 2026 | The next earnings update, crack spread direction, crude differentials, DGD commentary, and policy headlines are likely volatility drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $270, then below $218 | A sustained break below the 50-day average weakens trend confidence. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger uptrend. |
VLO AI trading strategy
The VLO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with refining margins, distillate demand, crude differentials, throughput, renewable diesel credits, dividends, buybacks, and balance-sheet risk.
Watch for VLO to hold above the $306 to $312 breakout area and keep trading above the 50-day average while crack spreads, export demand, and margin commentary support elevated refining results.
A close below $270 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals weaker margins, higher turnaround costs, lower throughput, or slower buybacks.
If VLO pulls back toward the $218 to $230 long-term support area without balance-sheet stress or structural margin impairment, compare the lower price with normalized earnings and cash-return capacity.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if crack spreads are collapsing, policy costs are rising, or free cash flow no longer covers dividends and disciplined capital returns.
Track Gulf Coast crack spreads, distillate margins, gasoline demand, crude differentials, refinery utilization, DGD margins, ethanol margins, buybacks, dividends, debt, cash, and regulatory costs.
Position sizing should reflect that Valero is a cyclical refiner with record current earnings, not a guaranteed income stock or a precise AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Valero because transportation, agriculture, aviation, industry, and export markets need refined fuels and low-carbon liquid fuels. The business turns complex refineries, logistics, feedstock sourcing, commercial optimization, DGD, and ethanol plants into cash flow when product margins are favorable.
Valero has scale, complex refinery assets, Gulf Coast export access, feedstock flexibility, operating discipline, renewable diesel exposure, and logistics advantages. The moat is real, but product margins remain cyclical and competitors can benefit from the same margin cycle.
The thesis fails if crack spreads normalize faster than expected, crude differentials move against Valero, clean fuel credits weaken, refinery downtime rises, policy costs increase, buybacks occur at peak-cycle prices, or investors mistake record cyclical earnings for durable growth.
Lane Riggs has continued a framework focused on operational excellence, balance-sheet strength, disciplined capital investments, and shareholder returns. The current management test is whether cash returns stay rational after a large stock move and record earnings.
Refined fuels remain essential to transport, trade, aviation, agriculture, and industrial activity, and Middle East supply disruption is currently lifting demand for U.S. product. Long-term fuel efficiency, regulation, clean fuel policy, EV adoption, and commodity volatility limit certainty.
At $312.90, VLO prices in continued strong refining margins after a record quarter. Margin of safety improves if earnings keep rising or if the stock falls toward conservative scenario ranges while cash returns remain well funded.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLO quote reference | $312.90 close on July 31, 2026, with a 52-week range of $130.78 to $320.24 | StockAnalysis VLO overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $90.09 billion reported and $90.09 billion calculated from $312.90 x 287.93 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis VLO statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 287.93 million shares outstanding, down 4.60% year over year | StockAnalysis VLO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $3.7 billion net income attributable to Valero stockholders and $12.62 EPS; adjusted net income of $3.7 billion and $12.54 adjusted EPS | Valero Q2 2026 results | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Refining operating income of $4.5 billion at 3.0 million barrels per day, Renewable Diesel operating income of $717 million, and Ethanol operating income of $318 million | Valero Q2 2026 results | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and debt | $7.9 billion cash, $9.1 billion total debt, $2.2 billion finance lease obligations, and an 11% net debt to capitalization ratio | Valero Q2 2026 results | June 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $122.69 billion revenue, $2.35 billion net income attributable to Valero stockholders, and $7.57 EPS; adjusted net income of $3.29 billion and $10.61 adjusted EPS | Valero 2025 fourth quarter and full year results | January 29, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $139.40 billion and TTM net income of about $7.2 billion to June 30, 2026, cross-checked between Macrotrends and StockAnalysis | Macrotrends net income and StockAnalysis financials | July 30, 2026 |
| Technical and valuation snapshot | 13.08 PE, 8.46 forward PE, 3.60 PB, 8.90 P/FCF, 1.53% dividend yield, 50-day average $270.36, 200-day average $218.58, RSI 66.37 | StockAnalysis VLO statistics | August 1, 2026 |
This VLO AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and can be wrong if refining margins, crude prices, policy, capital returns, or market multiples change.
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