VICI Properties Inc. research snapshot
VICI AI stock analysis currently reads VICI Properties as a differentiated experiential net lease REIT with large gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment, and leisure assets, long-term triple-net leases, and a high dividend yield. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, VICI closed July 31, 2026 at $26.35, market capitalization was about $29.01 billion, and the stock was below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Q2 2026 results released July 29, 2026 showed revenue of about $1.1 billion, up 5.7% year over year, AFFO per share of $0.62, up 4.6%, and a raise in the low end of 2026 AFFO guidance to $2.45 to $2.47 per share. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on AFFO per share, rent escalators, tenant credit, interest rates, acquisition spreads, development loan risk, and REIT valuation multiples. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$26.35
Market cap
$29.01 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-yield experiential REIT with durable rent streams, an expanded 16-tenant roster, and rate-sensitive valuation
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | VICI owns experiential real estate and earns rent or interest from large operators. Its current profile lists 103 experiential assets, 63 gaming properties, 40 other experiential properties, more than 130 million square feet, about 66,000 hotel rooms, and more than 700 restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and sportsbooks across the United States and Canada. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, operator relationships, long lease duration, irreplaceable Las Vegas Strip assets, sale-leaseback credibility, and access to large private transactions. It is not monopoly-like because capital can compete for real estate if cap rates and financing spreads are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Edward Pitoniak is pushing a partner-driven experiential real estate model beyond core casino properties. Q2 2026 added Clairvest, Golden Entertainment, and Club Med as the 14th, 15th, and 16th tenants, including the closing of the $1.16 billion Golden Entertainment sale leaseback and the Club Med St. Croix build-to-suit. The capital allocation test is whether this diversification raises AFFO per share without adding hidden credit or development risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $4.0 billion, net income attributable to common stockholders was about $2.8 billion, and AFFO per share was $2.38. Q2 2026 revenue grew 5.7% to about $1.1 billion, AFFO per share rose 4.6% to $0.62, and management raised the low end of 2026 AFFO guidance to $2.45 to $2.47 per diluted share. | High |
| Valuation | At $26.35, VICI traded near 10.2x trailing EPS, 10.23x price to FFO, 0.99x book value, 7.08x sales, and a 6.83% dividend yield by verified math. A three-scenario AFFO proxy model produced a base case near $30.90, with downside near $21.50 if AFFO contracts and the multiple compresses. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | VICI is below its 50-day moving average of $27.17 and 200-day moving average of $28.41. RSI near 44.46 shows weak but not deeply oversold momentum, so a recovery needs a reclaim of the moving averages and improving volume. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to medium-high for a REIT. VICI has attractive lease economics and dividend income, but it also carries about $17.2 billion of company-reported total debt, net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA near 4.9x, tenant concentration, gaming regulation risk, a $90 million loan modification during the quarter, and exposure to rate-sensitive real estate multiples. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported Q2 2026 data, FY2025 financials, shares, market cap math, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for tenant credit outcomes, development funding performance, private deal economics, and future cap rates. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. VICI has a clear business model, raised guidance, and an above-market dividend yield, but the stock still needs AFFO durability and rate relief to turn a cheap-looking multiple into a true margin of safety. | Medium |
VICI AI stock forecast
The VICI AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, FFO multiples, dividend coverage, tenant credit, rent escalators, interest rates, acquisition spreads, development loan exposure, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if 2026 AFFO guidance is raised again, tenant performance stays stable, new capital commitments earn attractive spreads, and REIT multiples recover. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, gaming or leisure demand weakens, tenant credit stress appears, or VICI is valued at a lower income REIT multiple.
$36 to $40
More likely if AFFO per share compounds near 6% annually, the market applies about a 13x terminal AFFO multiple, tenant rent coverage stays healthy, and lower rates support REIT income multiples. The verified three-scenario model produced about $38.10 using 6% growth and a 13x terminal multiple on the raised 2026 guidance midpoint.
$29 to $32
More likely if VICI tracks 2026 AFFO guidance of $2.45 to $2.47 per diluted share, maintains dividend coverage, and gradually reclaims its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The verified model base case was about $30.90 using 3% growth and an 11.5x terminal multiple.
$20 to $23
More likely if AFFO declines, rates stay restrictive, the market applies a 9x AFFO multiple, tenant credit worries increase, or development and loan commitments absorb more cash than expected. The verified bear model produced about $21.50 using flat-to-slightly-lower AFFO.
VICI AI technical analysis
VICI AI technical analysis starts from the $26.35 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is below the 50-day moving average of $27.17 and the 200-day moving average of $28.41, while RSI of 44.46 signals weak momentum without a confirmed capitulation signal. Technical levels should be checked against Q3 2026 earnings expected in late October 2026, REIT rate moves, dividend announcements, tenant credit news, and updates on Golden Entertainment, Clairvest, Gamehost, Club Med, and One Beverly Hills related capital commitments.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.35 | Latest verified close used for this page, at the July 31, 2026 market close. |
| Near support | $26.00 to $26.40 | This zone overlaps the current price area and sits just above the recent 52-week low of $25.82. Losing it would keep sellers in control. |
| Secondary support | $24.50 to $25.50 | A break below the current support zone and the 52-week low would make this the next risk area for income-oriented buyers to reassess. |
| Resistance | $27.20 to $28.40 | This area contains the 50-day moving average of $27.17 and the 200-day moving average of $28.41. A reclaim would improve the medium-term chart. |
| Higher resistance | $31 to $34 | This zone lines up with analyst target context and the upper part of the 52-week range of $25.82 to $34.01. A move there would need stronger REIT flows and stable AFFO guidance. |
| 50-day moving average | $27.17 | VICI is below this level, so short-term trend confidence remains limited until the stock reclaims it. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.41 | A close back above this level would be a stronger signal that the rate-sensitive downtrend is easing. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.46 | RSI is weak but not extremely oversold. Momentum still needs confirmation from price reclaiming moving averages. |
| Volume | 20-day average 8.67 million shares | A recovery above $28 to $29 would be more credible if volume expands on up days rather than fading at resistance. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.68 | Reported beta is below the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates, credit spreads, or tenant headlines move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25 or lower AFFO guide | A decisive break below $25, weaker AFFO guidance, tenant credit stress, or higher funding costs would weaken the base case. |
VICI AI trading strategy
The VICI AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, 2026 AFFO guidance, dividend coverage, rent escalators, tenant credit, interest rates, debt costs, acquisition spreads, and Q3 2026 earnings expected in late October 2026.
Track whether VICI can reclaim the $27.20 to $28.40 moving-average zone and hold it for several sessions. Confirmation improves if Q3 2026 results keep AFFO guidance at $2.45 to $2.47 per share or raise it, with no deterioration in tenant credit commentary.
Reduce confidence if price fails at the 50-day moving average, volume expands on down days, REITs weaken together on higher rates, or management lowers AFFO assumptions.
Use pullbacks near $26 or below as a watchlist condition only if dividend coverage, liquidity, tenant health, and capital deployment economics remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a hard valuation floor. A high-rate environment can keep the multiple low even if AFFO is stable.
Track AFFO per share, payout ratio, lease escalators, rent coverage, tenant concentration, debt maturities, new capital commitments, development loan funding, and net debt metrics.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker tenant credit, higher financing costs, a failed moving-average reclaim, and a close below $25 would override a bullish setup.
Investment research summary
VICI is paid to own or finance experiential real estate that operators need but often prefer not to keep on their own balance sheets. Tenants pay rent under long-term triple-net leases, while VICI converts those cash flows into dividends and new capital commitments. Q2 2026 added three tenants, bringing the roster to 16.
The moat is built from scale, major operator relationships, irreplaceable gaming assets, transaction credibility, access to public capital, and the ability to underwrite large experiential real estate deals. The moat can narrow if capital costs rise faster than deal yields or if tenant credit weakens.
The thesis can fail if rates stay high, tenant concentration becomes a credit problem, gaming regulation changes, leisure demand weakens, development loans disappoint, acquisition spreads compress, or investors overpay for dividend yield.
Edward Pitoniak and the VICI team have broadened the platform from casino real estate into broader experiential assets and structured financing, including the Golden Entertainment, Clairvest, Gamehost, and Club Med transactions that closed or commenced during Q2 2026. The main test is whether those moves add durable AFFO per share without weakening the simplicity of the triple-net lease model.
The long-term trend is mixed but investable. Experiential real estate can benefit from consumer demand for travel, entertainment, wellness, and out-of-home leisure, while the near-term cycle depends on rates, credit spreads, gaming demand, and property transaction liquidity.
The verified scenario model produced about $38.10 in the bull case, $30.90 in the base case, and $21.50 in the bear case using the raised 2026 AFFO guidance midpoint as the earnings proxy. The margin of safety is moderate because the multiple is low, but leverage, rates, and tenant concentration still matter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| VICI price | $26.35 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $29.01 billion, verified as $26.35 x 1.10 billion shares with 0.09% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.10 billion shares outstanding, up 1.85% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and AFFO | About $1.1 billion revenue, up 5.7% year over year, and $0.62 AFFO per share, up 4.6% year over year | VICI Q2 2026 results release and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 AFFO guidance | Raised to $2.675 billion to $2.695 billion AFFO, or $2.45 to $2.47 per diluted share, up from $2.44 to $2.47 at the low end; midpoint implies 3.4% year-over-year growth | VICI Q2 2026 results release and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | About $4.0 billion revenue, cross-validated against StockAnalysis at $4.01 billion, and about $2.8 billion net income | VICI FY2025 results release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | About $17.2 billion company-reported total debt, net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA near 4.9x, weighted average interest rate of 4.45% as adjusted for hedges, and about $2.5 billion total liquidity at June 30, 2026 | VICI Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Portfolio scale | 103 experiential assets, 63 gaming properties, 40 other experiential properties, over 130 million square feet, about 66,000 hotel rooms, and more than 700 restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and sportsbooks | VICI Properties official website | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $1.80 annual dividend, 6.83% verified dividend yield, 10.2x verified trailing PE, 10.23x price to FFO, 0.99x verified PB, and 7.08x verified price to sales | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 25 analysts with an average price target of $32.92, ranging from $27 to $39 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $27.17, 200-day MA $28.41, RSI 44.46, 20-day average volume 8.67 million, beta 0.68 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Tenant-level rent coverage, lease maturity details, and development loan collateral details require supplemental filings and future disclosures; public summary pages do not fully replace primary filings. | VICI investor relations and SEC filing links | August 2, 2026 |
This VICI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, tenant credit, gaming demand, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, development loan performance, or market conditions change.
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