Prologis, Inc. research snapshot
PLD AI stock analysis currently reads Prologis as a high-quality global logistics REIT with rare scale, strong rent spreads, a growing data center and energy pipeline, and meaningful sensitivity to rates, industrial supply, and valuation multiples. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, PLD closed at $143.61 on July 7, 2026, market capitalization was about $136.86 billion, and the stock traded near 22.6x price to FFO. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on 2026 Core FFO guidance, occupancy, same-store NOI growth, development yields, debt costs, and demand from logistics, digital infrastructure, and energy customers. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$143.61
Market cap
$136.86 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality logistics REIT with valuation, rates, and development-cycle risk
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Prologis owns and manages logistics real estate serving global supply chains, e-commerce, manufacturers, retailers, and third-party logistics customers. Q1 2026 average occupancy was 95.3% owned and managed, with 66.7 million square feet of leases commenced. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from irreplaceable infill locations, global scale, customer relationships, capital access, operating data, and development expertise. It is strongest in high-barrier logistics nodes and weaker where new supply or weaker demand reduces rent growth. | High |
| Management | CEO Daniel S. Letter and CFO Timothy D. Arndt are steering the company through logistics, data center, energy, and strategic capital growth while preserving liquidity and credit quality. Founder Hamid Moghadam remains an important board-level figure. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $8.790 billion and net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $3.322 billion. Q1 2026 revenue rose to $2.298 billion, Core FFO was $1.50 per diluted share, and AFFO was $1.472 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $143.61, PLD traded near 36.2x trailing earnings, 22.6x price to FFO, 2.5x book value, and 26.7x operating cash flow. The verified Core FFO scenario model produced a base case near $156.80, with valuation risk if multiples compress. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | PLD is slightly above its 50-day moving average of $142.65 and above its 200-day moving average of $132.53. RSI near 53.6 is neutral, so the chart shows a constructive but not stretched trend. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a REIT because debt was $34.670 billion at Q1 2026, debt to Adjusted EBITDA was 4.8x, and the stock remains sensitive to rates, cap rates, industrial leasing demand, and development execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported FY2025 and Q1 2026 data, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, guidance, and technical inputs; medium for data center economics, future cap rates, and global logistics demand. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. PLD has an above-average business, but the current price already discounts a meaningful amount of execution, embedded rent growth, and lower capital-market stress. | Medium |
PLD AI stock forecast
The PLD AI stock forecast uses Core FFO per share, FFO multiples, occupancy, same-store NOI growth, development returns, debt costs, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if 2026 Core FFO guidance rises again, rent spreads stay healthy, data center and energy projects earn attractive returns, and cap rates stabilize. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, new industrial supply pressures rents, customers delay leasing, or the market assigns a lower REIT multiple.
$185 to $195
More likely if PLD compounds Core FFO near 6% annually, the market applies a 26x terminal multiple, logistics demand normalizes, and data center starts convert into visible value. The verified three-scenario model produced about $190.40 using 6% growth and a 26x terminal multiple.
$150 to $160
More likely if PLD tracks the midpoint of 2026 Core FFO guidance, occupancy remains around 95%, same-store NOI grows in the guided range, and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average. The verified model base case was about $156.80.
$100 to $110
More likely if Core FFO declines, cap rates move higher, industrial leasing slows, development margins narrow, or PLD is valued closer to an 18x FFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $104.20.
PLD AI technical analysis
PLD AI technical analysis starts from the $143.61 close on July 7, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average of $142.65 and the 200-day moving average of $132.53, while RSI of 53.58 signals neutral momentum. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on July 16, 2026, rate moves, REIT flows, leasing demand, development updates, and guidance changes.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $143.61 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $140 to $143 | This zone covers the current price area and the 50-day moving average. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $132 to $133 | This zone aligns with the 200-day moving average and is the key trend support for medium-term buyers. |
| 50-day moving average | $142.65 | PLD is only slightly above this level, so a weak close back below it would reduce trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $132.53 | The stock remains above long-term trend support. A close below this level would shift the chart toward a risk-off setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 53.58 | RSI is neutral, leaving room for either a continuation move or a failed breakout depending on volume and Q2 results. |
| Volume | 20-day average 4.05 million shares | A move above $150 would need stronger volume to confirm institutional demand rather than a low-volume rebound. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.34 | PLD has traded with higher volatility than the broad market, which matters for position sizing and stop discipline. |
| Invalidation | Close below $132 or lower Core FFO guide | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average, weaker leasing metrics, or reduced 2026 guidance would weaken the base case. |
PLD AI trading strategy
The PLD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, 2026 Core FFO guidance, occupancy, cash same-store NOI, development starts, debt costs, cap rates, and Q2 2026 earnings.
Track whether PLD holds the $140 to $143 area and then clears $150 with improving volume after Q2 2026 earnings. Confirmation improves if management keeps Core FFO guidance at $6.07 to $6.23 or raises it.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 200-day moving average near $132.53, if volume expands on down days, or if rate-sensitive REITs weaken together.
Use pullbacks toward the 200-day moving average as a watchlist condition only if occupancy, same-store NOI, liquidity, and development yield commentary remain intact.
Do not treat PLD quality as a valuation floor. A higher cap-rate environment can still compress the FFO multiple.
Track average occupancy, retention, cash rent change, net effective rent change, Core FFO per share, AFFO, development starts, data center build-to-suit activity, debt to Adjusted EBITDA, and available liquidity.
A combination of weaker rent growth, higher debt costs, narrower development margins, and a break below $132 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Prologis is paid to provide scarce logistics infrastructure near consumption centers, ports, airports, highways, and labor pools. Customers pay for warehouse space, speed, reliability, development capability, energy solutions, and access to a global property network.
The moat is built from irreplaceable locations, zoning friction, global scale, capital access, long customer relationships, logistics data, and a strategic capital platform. The moat is not immune to new supply, slower goods demand, or cap-rate resets.
The thesis can fail if industrial demand weakens, customers delay leasing, new supply pressures rents, rates lift cap rates, data center and energy projects consume capital without adequate returns, or global currency and political risk reduce cash flow visibility.
Daniel S. Letter became CEO in 2025 after a long operating role inside Prologis, while Hamid Moghadam remains influential as co-founder and executive chairman. The capital allocation test is whether development, data center, energy, and strategic capital growth increase FFO per share without stretching leverage.
The long-term trend is favorable because resilient supply chains, e-commerce, nearshoring, cloud demand, and electrification increase the value of well-located logistics real estate. The near-term cycle depends on economic growth, inventory behavior, tenant demand, supply completions, and interest rates.
The verified scenario model produced about $190.40 in the bull case, $156.80 in the base case, and $104.20 in the bear case using 2026 Core FFO guidance as the earnings proxy. The margin of safety is moderate rather than obvious because PLD already trades at a premium REIT multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLD price | $143.61 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis financials page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $136.86 billion, verified as $143.61 x 953.01 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 953.01 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $8.790 billion, cross-validated against Macrotrends at $8.790 billion and StockTitan at $8.8 billion | Prologis FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings to common | $3.322 billion company-reported, cross-validated against StockTitan near $3.3 billion and AlphaQuery near $3.32 billion | Prologis FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, earnings, Core FFO, and AFFO | $2.298 billion revenue, $980 million net earnings to common, $1.50 Core FFO per diluted share, and $1.472 billion AFFO | Prologis Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating metrics | 95.3% owned and managed average occupancy, 66.7 million square feet of leases commenced, 8.8% cash same-store NOI growth, and 16.8% cash rent change | Prologis Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | $861 million cash and equivalents, $34.670 billion debt, $6.7 billion available liquidity, and 4.8x debt to Adjusted EBITDA | Prologis Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Current guidance of $3.80 to $4.05 net earnings per diluted share and $6.07 to $6.23 Core FFO per share | Prologis Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $142.65, 200-day MA $132.53, RSI 53.58, 20-day average volume 4.05 million, beta 1.34 | StockAnalysis statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
This PLD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, cap rates, leasing demand, development returns, debt markets, or market conditions change.
