Realty Income Corporation research snapshot
O AI stock analysis currently reads Realty Income as a high-quality net lease REIT with a diversified global portfolio, a long monthly dividend record, raised 2026 AFFO guidance, and clear sensitivity to interest rates, cap rates, tenant credit, private capital growth, and equity issuance. At the August 1, 2026 cutoff, O closed at $63.87 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $59.73 billion, and the stock traded near 15.0x price to FFO. The AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the investment case depends on AFFO per share, occupancy, rent recapture, same-store rent growth, investment spreads, debt costs, private capital vehicles, and REIT valuation multiples. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$63.87
Market cap
$59.73 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Durable net lease REIT with high dividend appeal, moderate growth, and rate-sensitive valuation
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but momentum has cooled (RSI 48.5)
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Realty Income is paid to own long-term net lease real estate for large clients. As of March 31, 2026, it owned or held interests in 15,571 properties leased to 1,786 clients across 92 industries, with 98.9% occupancy and a weighted average remaining lease term of about 8.7 years. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, tenant relationships, investment sourcing, low-cost public and private capital, diversification, and a long dividend reputation. It is weaker than a monopoly moat because real estate capital can compete for similar assets when spreads are attractive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Sumit Roy is expanding global net lease scale and private capital partnerships, including the Apollo joint venture, the GIC relationship, and a new Cloud Capital data center program, while preserving the monthly dividend. The test is whether new investments earn enough spread over borrowing and equity costs. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $5.75 billion and net income was about $1.06 billion. Q1 2026 revenue was $1.5487 billion, net income available to common stockholders was $311.8 million, and AFFO per share rose 6.6% to $1.13. | High |
| Valuation | At $63.87, O traded near 52.3x trailing EPS, 15.0x price to FFO, 1.5x book value, and a 5.1% dividend yield. A verified AFFO scenario model produced a base case near $70.7, with downside if rates rise or the AFFO multiple compresses. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | O is above its 50-day moving average of $62.74 and 200-day moving average of $61.35. RSI near 48.5 is neutral rather than strongly bullish, and momentum cooled from about 60 in early July, with $61 to $62 the key trend support zone. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate for a REIT. Net debt to annualized pro forma Adjusted EBITDAre was 5.2x at Q1 2026, and the stock remains exposed to rates, tenant bankruptcies, cap-rate moves, acquisition spreads, and equity-market access. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for company-reported Q1 2026 data, market cap math, shares, valuation ratios, dividend data, and technical inputs; medium for future cap rates, tenant credit losses, data center economics, and private capital returns. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. O has a durable income model, but the current case depends on steady AFFO growth and a stable rate environment rather than a visibly cheap valuation. | Medium |
O AI stock forecast
The O AI stock forecast uses AFFO per share, FFO multiples, occupancy, rent recapture, same-store rent growth, acquisition yields, financing costs, dividend coverage, and technical trend rather than a single deterministic price prediction. The bullish case becomes more likely if 2026 AFFO guidance rises again, investment spreads stay positive, private capital vehicles scale without heavy dilution, and rates move lower. The bearish case becomes more likely if rates rise, tenant credit stress increases, acquisition spreads narrow, or the market assigns a lower REIT multiple.
$76 to $84
More likely if O compounds AFFO above 5% annually, the market applies a 16x terminal AFFO multiple, occupancy stays close to 99%, private capital expands through Apollo, GIC, and Cloud Capital, and rate pressure eases. The verified three-scenario model produced about $82.0 using 5% growth and a 16x terminal multiple.
$66 to $74
More likely if O tracks the 2026 AFFO guidance range of $4.41 to $4.44, same-store rent growth remains near guidance, investment volume stays productive, and the stock holds above its 200-day moving average. The verified model base case was about $70.7.
$48 to $54
More likely if AFFO stalls, rates or cap rates rise, tenant distress increases, equity issuance becomes more expensive, or O is valued closer to a 12x AFFO multiple. The verified bear model produced about $53.1.
O AI technical analysis
O AI technical analysis starts from the $63.87 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is above the 50-day moving average of $62.74 and the 200-day moving average of $61.35, while RSI of 48.51 is neutral and cooled from about 60 in early July. Technical levels should be checked against Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026, rate moves, REIT fund flows, dividend announcements, tenant credit news, and acquisition spread commentary.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $63.87 | Latest verified close used for this page, reported for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $62.50 to $64.00 | This zone covers the current price area and the 50-day moving average. Holding it keeps the short-term trend constructive. |
| Secondary support | $61.00 to $61.50 | This zone aligns with the 200-day moving average and is the key trend support for medium-term buyers. |
| Resistance | $67.90 to $68.10 | This area overlaps the 52-week high near $67.94 and the average analyst target of $68.01. A breakout would need volume and lower-rate support. |
| 50-day moving average | $62.74 | O is above this level, so a close below it would reduce short-term trend confidence. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.35 | A decisive close below this level would shift the chart toward a risk-off setup for a rate-sensitive REIT. |
| Momentum | RSI 48.51 | RSI is neutral and cooled from about 60 in early July. Momentum needs confirmation from volume and rate-sensitive REIT performance. |
| Volume | 20-day average 4.97 million shares | A move above $68 would be more credible if volume expands rather than fading near resistance. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.73 | O has lower reported beta than the broad market, but REIT drawdowns can still be sharp when rates or credit spreads move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $61 or lower AFFO guide | A break below the 200-day moving average, weaker AFFO guidance, lower occupancy, or tenant credit deterioration would weaken the base case. |
O AI trading strategy
The O AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, moving averages, 2026 AFFO guidance, occupancy, rent recapture, investment yields, dividend coverage, debt costs, cap rates, and Q2 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026.
Track whether O holds the $62.50 to $64.00 area and then clears $68 with improving volume. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results keep AFFO guidance at $4.41 to $4.44 or raise it, with occupancy near management expectations.
Reduce confidence if price closes below the 200-day moving average near $61.35, if volume expands on down days, or if REITs weaken together on higher rates.
Use pullbacks toward the $61 to $62 support area as a watchlist condition only if dividend coverage, tenant health, liquidity, and acquisition spread commentary remain intact.
Do not treat the dividend yield as a valuation floor. A higher-rate environment can still compress AFFO multiples and pressure equity funding.
Track AFFO per share, payout ratio, same-store rent growth, rent recapture, occupancy, investment volume, weighted average acquisition yield, liquidity, net debt to Adjusted EBITDAre, and tenant concentration.
A mix of lower AFFO guidance, weaker tenant credit, higher financing costs, narrower spreads, and a close below $61 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Realty Income is paid to provide real estate capital to retailers, industrial operators, gaming assets, and other commercial tenants. Tenants pay rent under long-term net leases, while O converts property cash flows into monthly dividends and incremental acquisitions.
The moat is built from scale, public-market access, private capital relationships, tenant relationships, underwriting data, global sourcing, and the credibility of a long dividend record. The moat can narrow if capital costs rise faster than acquisition yields or if tenant defaults increase.
The thesis can fail if interest rates stay high, cap rates reset upward, tenant bankruptcies rise, acquisition spreads compress, equity issuance becomes dilutive, private capital growth disappoints, or investors overpay for dividend stability.
Sumit Roy has shifted Realty Income toward larger global scale, private capital partnerships, and broader asset types, including the Apollo joint venture and a new Cloud Capital data center program, while preserving the monthly dividend identity. The main test is whether this expansion improves AFFO per share without adding hidden complexity or leverage risk.
The long-term trend is mixed but investable. Net lease real estate benefits from corporate sale-leaseback demand, global portfolio outsourcing, and income demand, while the near-term cycle depends on rates, credit spreads, consumer demand, and property transaction liquidity.
The verified scenario model produced about $82.0 in the bull case, $70.7 in the base case, and $53.1 in the bear case using 2026 AFFO guidance as the earnings proxy. The margin of safety is moderate because O trades at a reasonable REIT multiple, not a distressed one.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| O price | $63.87 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis overview page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $59.73 billion, verified as $63.87 x 935.17 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 935.17 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.749 billion, cross-validated with StockAnalysis financials at $5.749 billion | Macrotrends revenue page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.06 billion per StockAnalysis financials | StockAnalysis financials page | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, net income, FFO, and AFFO | $1,548.7 million revenue, $311.8 million net income to common, $993.6 million FFO, and $1.13 AFFO per share | Realty Income Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating metrics | 15,571 properties, 1,786 clients, 92 industries, 98.9% occupancy, 103.4% rent recapture, and about 8.7 years weighted average lease term | Realty Income Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and leverage | $3.9 billion pro-rata available liquidity, $388.4 million pro-rata cash, and 5.2x net debt to annualized pro forma Adjusted EBITDAre | Realty Income Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $4.41 to $4.44 AFFO per share, 1.0% to 1.3% same-store rent growth, approximately 98.5% occupancy, and $9.5 billion investment volume, raised from $8.0 billion | Realty Income Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and valuation | $3.25 annual dividend, 5.09% dividend yield, 52.34x PE, 14.99x price to FFO, 1.52x PB, and 10.07x price to sales | StockAnalysis overview and statistics pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $62.74, 200-day MA $61.35, RSI 48.51, 20-day average volume 4.97 million, and beta 0.73 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with a $68.01 average price target, $61.50 low, $67.50 median, and $72.00 high across 24 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Cash and net debt were cross-checked using company-reported consolidated and pro-rata Q1 2026 figures; this is a useful basis check but not a fully independent third-party cash validation. | Realty Income Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
This O AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 1, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, rates, cap rates, tenant credit, acquisition spreads, financing costs, dividend policy, or market conditions change.
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