US Foods Holding Corp. research snapshot
USFD AI stock analysis currently reads US Foods Holding Corp. as a scaled foodservice distributor whose independent-restaurant growth, operating discipline, and share repurchases have improved earnings faster than sales. The trade-off is a thin-margin model, $5.28 billion of net debt, exposure to restaurant demand and food-cost volatility, and a valuation that leaves less room for execution misses. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, the latest accessible July 7 close was $103.99 and 220.22 million shares implied market capitalization of about $22.90 billion. The USFD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price prediction. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$103.99
Market cap
$22.90 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Scaled foodservice distributor with improving execution, meaningful leverage, and limited valuation cushion
Trend status
Strong above long-term moving averages, but extended near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | US Foods distributes fresh, frozen, dry, and non-food products plus business tools to about 250,000 foodservice customer locations across the United States. | High |
| Moat | Route density, purchasing scale, broad SKU availability, customer service, private brands, distribution infrastructure, and digital tools create an operational moat, although customers can still switch distributors. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair and CEO Dave Flitman has emphasized independent-restaurant growth, productivity, technology, and repurchases. The next test is balancing buybacks with debt reduction and durable margin gains. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 4.1% to $39.42 billion and GAAP net income rose 36.8% to $676 million. Q1 FY2026 sales rose 2.8% to $9.6 billion while adjusted EBITDA rose 6.2% to $413 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $103.99, financial_rigor.py calculates about 34.9x TTM GAAP EPS, 27.0x free cash flow per share, a 2.87% earnings yield, and a 3.70% free-cash-flow yield. | High |
| Technical trend | USFD is above the reported 50-day and 200-day moving averages and close to its 52-week high, which supports the trend but raises pullback risk after a sharp run. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the business has scale and recurring customer demand, but low margins, $5.28 billion of net debt, food and fuel volatility, labor, and restaurant demand can move results quickly. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data and calculation checks. Medium for scenario outcomes because macro demand, operating leverage, and valuation sentiment cannot be known in advance. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Execution has improved, but the current price requires continued earnings growth and leaves less margin of safety than a lower-multiple entry point. | Medium |
USFD AI stock forecast
The USFD AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $103.99 July 7 close, not a guaranteed target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using TTM GAAP EPS of $2.98 produces mechanical three-year outputs near $117.20 in a bull case, $90.10 in a base case, and $60.30 in a bear case. These outputs are sensitive to growth and terminal multiple assumptions.
$110 to $120
More likely if independent-restaurant case growth stays ahead of the market, gross profit and productivity improve, adjusted EBITDA follows the company growth framework, repurchases continue without stressing the balance sheet, and investors retain a premium earnings multiple.
$85 to $95
More likely if sales grow at a low to mid-single-digit rate, margin gains are gradual, debt remains manageable, and investors value USFD closer to a mid-20s GAAP earnings multiple.
$60 to $75
More likely if restaurant traffic weakens, food or fuel costs are not passed through cleanly, labor and logistics costs rise, leverage limits flexibility, or the market re-rates the shares toward a cyclical distributor multiple.
USFD AI technical analysis
USFD AI technical analysis starts from the latest accessible $103.99 July 7, 2026 close. A StockAnalysis market snapshot near the cutoff showed a 52-week range of $69.88 to $105.17, a 50-day moving average near $89.37, a 200-day moving average near $84.11, RSI near 73.38, and roughly 3.15 million shares of average 20-day volume. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so levels must be rechecked before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $103.99 | Latest accessible July 7, 2026 regular-session close used for this static page. |
| Near support | $89 to $90 | The reported 50-day moving-average area is the first broad support reference after the recent advance. |
| Deeper support | $84 to $85 | The reported 200-day moving-average area is the next long-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $105 to $106 | The 52-week high of $105.17 is the immediate breakout area and needs volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $89.37, 200-day about $84.11 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. These are references, not trade instructions. |
| Momentum | RSI about 73 | Momentum is strong but extended, which can increase the probability of consolidation or a pullback. |
| Volume | About 3.15 million average 20-day shares | A breakout above the 52-week high is more credible when turnover is near or above this reference. |
| Volatility | Five-year beta about 0.79 | Lower historical beta does not remove earnings, commodity, demand, or gap risk around results. |
| Invalidation | Loss of $89 support, then $84 | Failure through the 50-day area followed by the 200-day area would weaken the trend-following case. |
USFD AI trading strategy
The USFD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a foodservice distribution stock after a strong trend. It is not personalized advice and should be combined with position sizing, defined invalidation, earnings-calendar review, and current market data.
Monitor whether USFD clears and holds above the $105 to $106 high with turnover near or above average. Confirm that restaurant demand, case growth, adjusted EBITDA, and peer distribution stocks are not deteriorating.
A failed breakout followed by loss of the $89 50-day area should invalidate a short-term trend setup.
If USFD consolidates toward the $89 to $90 support zone while independent-restaurant growth, margin, and free cash flow remain intact, monitor whether price stabilizes before assuming the uptrend has resumed.
Do not treat every pullback as value if it follows weaker restaurant traffic, margin pressure, higher leverage, or reduced earnings guidance.
Track case-volume growth, independent-restaurant cases, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, net debt, free cash flow, repurchases, food and fuel costs, labor costs, and FY2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if buybacks continue while organic growth, cash conversion, or debt metrics deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay US Foods to source a broad food and non-food assortment reliably, simplify kitchen and purchasing operations, and receive delivery, local service, private brands, and digital business tools.
The moat comes from route density, purchasing scale, distribution assets, broadline assortment, customer relationships, private brands, sales coverage, and execution. It is real but not absolute because large customers can negotiate and competitors can serve many accounts.
The failure path is paying a premium for a low-margin distributor just as restaurant demand, food inflation pass-through, labor productivity, or volume growth weakens. Debt and a lower earnings multiple can compound a modest operating miss.
Management has focused on share gains, productivity, technology, and returns of capital. Capital-allocation quality depends on preserving balance-sheet flexibility while buying back shares and investing enough to sustain service and margins.
Food-away-from-home spending, independent restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and digital ordering support long-term demand, but the industry remains cyclical, operationally intensive, price-sensitive, and exposed to food, fuel, labor, and supplier disruptions.
At roughly 34.9x TTM GAAP EPS and 27.0x free cash flow per share, the market is valuing sustained execution. The safety margin improves if earnings rise faster than the price or if a pullback occurs without a deterioration in volume, margin, or leverage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| USFD price | $103.99 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.90 billion, $103.99 times 220.22M shares | StockAnalysis quote and share-count snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $39.424 billion, up 4.1% | US Foods FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $676 million, up 36.8% | US Foods FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 gross profit and operating income | $6.864 billion and $1.199 billion | US Foods FY2025 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $49M cash, $5.33B debt, and about $5.28B net debt | StockAnalysis balance-sheet and statistics snapshots | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating update | Net sales $9.6B, up 2.8%; adjusted EBITDA $413M, up 6.2%; independent restaurant cases up 4.6% | US Foods Q1 FY2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Net sales growth 4% to 6%, adjusted EBITDA growth 9% to 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth 18% to 24% | US Foods Q1 FY2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $69.88 to $105.17; 50-day average $89.37; 200-day average $84.11; RSI 73.38 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
This USFD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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