US Foods Holding Corp. research snapshot
USFD AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads US Foods Holding Corp. as a scaled foodservice distributor whose independent-restaurant growth, operating discipline, and share repurchases have improved earnings faster than sales. At the July 31, 2026 close of $100.59, 220.22 million shares implied a market capitalization of about $22.15 billion, re-verified as $100.59 times 220.22 million shares with 0.01% deviation. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 6, 2026, so the Q1 FY2026 report from May 7, 2026 remains the latest reported quarter. The trade-off is a thin-margin model, about $5.12 billion of net debt at the March 28, 2026 balance sheet date, exposure to restaurant demand and food and fuel costs, and a valuation that leaves less room for execution misses. The USFD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price prediction. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$100.59
Market cap
$22.15 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Scaled foodservice distributor with improving execution, real leverage, and limited valuation cushion
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with momentum cooling from an overbought reading
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | US Foods distributes fresh, frozen, dry, and non-food products plus business tools to about 250,000 foodservice customer locations across the United States. | High |
| Moat | Route density, purchasing scale, broad SKU availability, customer service, private brands, distribution infrastructure, Pronto delivery, and digital tools create an operational moat, although customers can still switch distributors. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair and CEO Dave Flitman added the Chair role in May 2026, with CFO Dirk Locascio running finance. The focus is independent-restaurant growth, productivity, technology, and repurchases, and the next test is the August 6, 2026 Q2 report and a full year of higher fuel costs. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 4.1% to $39.42 billion and GAAP net income rose 36.8% to $676 million. Q1 FY2026 sales rose 2.8% to $9.6 billion while adjusted EBITDA rose 6.2% to $413 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $100.59, financial_rigor.py calculates about 33.8x TTM GAAP EPS, 26.1x free cash flow per share, a 2.96% earnings yield, and a 3.83% free-cash-flow yield, in line with the StockAnalysis statistics snapshot. | High |
| Technical trend | USFD is above the reported 50-day and 200-day moving averages after pulling back from the 52-week high, with RSI cooling to about 57 from an overbought reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the business has scale and recurring customer demand, but low margins, about $5.12 billion of net debt, food and fuel volatility, labor, and restaurant demand can move results quickly, with the Q2 report due August 6, 2026. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data and calculation checks. Medium for scenario outcomes because macro demand, operating leverage, fuel, and valuation sentiment cannot be known in advance. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Execution has improved, but the current price requires continued earnings growth and leaves less margin of safety than a lower-multiple entry point. | Medium |
USFD AI stock forecast
The USFD AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $100.59 July 31, 2026 close, not a guaranteed target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using TTM GAAP EPS of $2.98 produces mechanical three-year outputs near $117.20 in a bull case, $90.10 in a base case, and $59.60 in a bear case. These outputs are sensitive to growth and terminal multiple assumptions, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 report is the next scheduled catalyst.
$110 to $120
More likely if independent-restaurant case growth stays ahead of the market, fuel costs normalize, gross profit and productivity improve, adjusted EBITDA follows the company growth framework, repurchases continue without stressing the balance sheet, and investors retain a premium earnings multiple.
$85 to $95
More likely if sales grow at a low to mid-single-digit rate, margin gains are gradual, debt remains manageable, fuel stays elevated but recoverable, and investors value USFD closer to a mid-20s GAAP earnings multiple.
$55 to $70
More likely if restaurant traffic weakens, food or fuel costs are not passed through cleanly, labor and logistics costs rise, leverage limits flexibility, the Q2 report disappoints, or the market re-rates the shares toward a cyclical distributor multiple.
USFD AI technical analysis
USFD AI technical analysis starts from the latest accessible $100.59 July 31, 2026 close. A StockAnalysis market snapshot near the August 2, 2026 cutoff showed a 52-week range of $69.88 to $105.17, a 50-day moving average near $93.56, a 200-day moving average near $86.25, RSI near 57.41, and roughly 2.38 million shares of average 20-day volume. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so levels must be rechecked before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $100.59 | Latest accessible July 31, 2026 regular-session close used for this static page. |
| Near support | $93 to $94 | The reported 50-day moving-average area is the first broad support reference after the recent pullback. |
| Deeper support | $86 to $87 | The reported 200-day moving-average area is the next long-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $105 to $106 | The 52-week high of $105.17 is the immediate breakout area and needs volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $93.56, 200-day about $86.25 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot around the cutoff. These are references, not trade instructions. |
| Momentum | RSI about 57 | Momentum cooled from an overbought reading, which reduces but does not remove consolidation or pullback risk. |
| Volume | About 2.38 million average 20-day shares | A breakout above the 52-week high is more credible when turnover is near or above this reference. |
| Volatility | Five-year beta about 0.79 | Lower historical beta does not remove earnings, commodity, demand, or gap risk around results, including the August 6, 2026 report. |
| Invalidation | Loss of $93 support, then $86 | Failure through the 50-day area followed by the 200-day area would weaken the trend-following case. |
USFD AI trading strategy
The USFD AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a foodservice distribution stock after a strong trend and a recent pullback. It is not personalized advice and should be combined with position sizing, defined invalidation, earnings-calendar review, and current market data.
Monitor whether USFD clears and holds above the $105 to $106 high with turnover near or above average. Confirm that restaurant demand, case growth, adjusted EBITDA, fuel trends, and peer distribution stocks are not deteriorating.
A failed breakout followed by loss of the $93 50-day area should invalidate a short-term trend setup.
If USFD consolidates toward the $93 to $94 support zone while independent-restaurant growth, margin, and free cash flow remain intact, monitor whether price stabilizes before assuming the uptrend has resumed.
Do not treat every pullback as value if it follows weaker restaurant traffic, margin pressure, higher leverage, reduced earnings guidance, or a weak August 6, 2026 Q2 report.
Track case-volume growth, independent-restaurant cases, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, net debt, free cash flow, repurchases, food and fuel costs, labor costs, and FY2026 guidance, and review the Q2 FY2026 report scheduled for August 6, 2026.
Reduce confidence if buybacks continue while organic growth, cash conversion, or debt metrics deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Customers pay US Foods to source a broad food and non-food assortment reliably, simplify kitchen and purchasing operations, and receive delivery, local service, private brands, and digital business tools.
The moat comes from route density, purchasing scale, distribution assets, broadline assortment, customer relationships, private brands, Pronto small-truck delivery, sales coverage, and execution. It is real but not absolute because large customers can negotiate and competitors can serve many accounts.
The failure path is paying a premium for a low-margin distributor just as restaurant demand, food inflation pass-through, labor productivity, or volume growth weakens. Debt and a lower earnings multiple can compound a modest operating miss, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 report is the next checkpoint.
Management has focused on share gains, productivity, technology, and returns of capital, and Dave Flitman now serves as both CEO and Chair. Capital-allocation quality depends on preserving balance-sheet flexibility while buying back shares and investing enough to sustain service and margins.
Food-away-from-home spending, independent restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and digital ordering support long-term demand, but the industry remains cyclical, operationally intensive, price-sensitive, and exposed to food, fuel, labor, and supplier disruptions.
At roughly 33.8x TTM GAAP EPS and 26.1x free cash flow per share, the market is valuing sustained execution. The safety margin improves if earnings rise faster than the price or if a pullback occurs without a deterioration in volume, margin, or leverage.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| USFD price | $100.59 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.15 billion, $100.59 times 220.22M shares, 0.01% deviation in financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis quote and statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $39.424 billion, up 4.1% | US Foods FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $676 million, up 36.8% | US Foods FY2025 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 gross profit and operating income | $6.864 billion and $1.199 billion | US Foods FY2025 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $49M cash, $5.33B total debt per StockAnalysis, and about $5.12B net debt on the March 28, 2026 balance sheet with 2.6x net leverage | US Foods Q1 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis balance-sheet snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating update | Net sales $9.6B, up 2.8%; adjusted EBITDA $413M, up 6.2%; independent restaurant cases up 4.6%; diluted EPS $0.52; adjusted diluted EPS $0.78 | US Foods Q1 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Net sales growth 4% to 6%, adjusted EBITDA growth 9% to 13%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth 18% to 24%, including the impact of a 53rd week | US Foods Q1 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 FY2026 results scheduled for August 6, 2026, before market open | StockAnalysis quote snapshot and US Foods announcement | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 16 analysts with an average price target near $105.75, range $61 to $120; July 2026 targets include BMO $115, Citi $110, and Morgan Stanley $103 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 52-week range $69.88 to $105.17; 50-day average $93.56; 200-day average $86.25; RSI 57.41 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
This USFD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change. The Q2 FY2026 report on August 6, 2026 is a scheduled event that may move the stock.
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