TXNM Energy, Inc. research snapshot
TXNM AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads TXNM Energy as a regulated electric utility holding company that agreed to be acquired by Blackstone Infrastructure in May 2025 at $61.25 per share, an enterprise value of roughly $11.5 billion. The page uses scenario analysis, not a certain price prediction. At the cutoff, the stock closed at $57.92 on July 31, 2026, traded near $57.62 intraday on August 3, and carried a market capitalization of about $6.41 billion, verified as $57.92 times roughly 110.71 million shares. Q2 2026 results, released July 31, 2026, beat the consensus with GAAP EPS of $0.64 and ongoing EPS of $0.58 versus the $0.57 consensus, and the Public Utility Commission of Texas approved the TNMP base rate settlement on July 30, 2026. The deal has cleared FERC, PUCT, FCC, and the HSR waiting period, while approval from the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is still pending. On July 17, 2026, the merger agreement termination date was extended to May 31, 2027, and the company anticipates closing in the first half of 2027. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$57.92 at the July 31, 2026 close; $57.62 intraday on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$6.41 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Regulated electric utility in acquisition by Blackstone Infrastructure at $61.25 per share, with Q2 2026 beat and TNMP rate case approved but NMPRC and NRC approvals still pending
Trend status
Range-bound between $55.64 and $59.53, trading near the $61.25 deal price minus a narrow merger-arbitrage spread, with low realized volatility
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TXNM Energy operates two regulated utilities, PNM in New Mexico and TNMP in Texas, serving about 800,000 electric customers with roughly 2.7 GW of generation capacity. Regulated utilities produce predictable but regulator-capped returns, and TTM revenue is about $2.23 billion up 9.97%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulated utility franchises that grant exclusive service territories. Customer choice is limited, but regulators set allowed returns, so the moat protects revenue more than it drives profit growth. | Medium-high |
| Management | Don Tarry is President and CEO and is leading TXNM through the Blackstone transaction process, having reported a Q2 2026 ongoing EPS beat of $0.58 and a TNMP rate case settlement. Management is measured by regulatory outcomes, operational reliability, and dividend consistency, not by earnings growth that will be capped by deal terms. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $2.23 billion up 9.97%, TTM net income is about $195.86 million up 10.4%, and TTM GAAP EPS is about $1.77. FY2025 revenue was $2.17 billion with net income of $151.36 million. The company carries about $5.94 billion of total debt against about $14.59 million of cash, and TTM free cash flow is negative at about $502 million on heavy capital spending. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $57.92, TXNM trades at about 32.7x TTM GAAP EPS and 18.9x forward EPS, with a 2.92% dividend yield and 2.87x sales. These multiples reflect the pending $61.25 Blackstone acquisition, not standalone utility fundamentals, and the upside is capped near the deal price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TXNM trades in a narrow 52-week range between about $55.64 and $59.53. As of the cutoff, price sits between the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $57.54 and $57.78, below the 100-day and 200-day averages near $58.34 and $58.39, with 14-day RSI near 48.8, 14-day ADX near 24, and historic volatility near 7%. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because the deal outcome is binary. The key risk is NMPRC or NRC rejection, further delay past May 31, 2027, or deal renegotiation. Regulatory, political, and financing outcomes dominate, while utility fundamentals such as rate case results and interest expense matter mainly if the deal fails. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for verified price, market cap, Q2 2026 results, dividend, and the TNMP rate case, all cross-checked during the August 3, 2026 refresh. Lower for forward price ranges because NMPRC and NRC approval timing is inherently uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. TXNM is a binary option on Blackstone deal approval. Long-term utility fundamentals are obscured by the acquisition premium, and the upside is capped near $61.25 while the downside depends on where standalone utility valuation lands. | Medium-low |
TXNM AI stock forecast
The TXNM AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the July 31, 2026 close of $57.92. The bullish case depends on the Blackstone deal closing near the announced terms; the base case assumes the deal closes with delay or modest adjustments; the bearish case assumes the deal fails and TXNM reverts to standalone regulated utility valuation. All scenarios are subject to NMPRC, NRC, political, and financing uncertainty.
$59 to $62
More likely if the NMPRC and NRC approvals arrive without material conditions, the deal closes in the first half of 2027 as anticipated, and the stock converges to the $61.25 per share consideration with only a minimal timing discount.
$55 to $60
More likely if the Blackstone deal closes but requires additional regulatory concessions, an extension beyond the May 31, 2027 termination date, or financing adjustments that modestly reduce per-share value, keeping the stock at a modest merger-arbitrage discount to $61.25.
$33 to $48
More likely if the NMPRC or NRC blocks or materially conditions the acquisition, or the deal is abandoned, TXNM reverts to standalone regulated utility valuation at a P/E more typical for the sector, and the stock loses the acquisition premium embedded in the current price.
TXNM AI technical analysis
TXNM AI technical analysis starts from the $57.92 July 31, 2026 close used for the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Public quote sources place the 52-week range near $55.64 to $59.53, with 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $57.54, $57.78, $58.34, and $58.39, a 14-day RSI near 48.8, a 14-day ADX near 24, and historic volatility near 7%. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages, volume, and momentum should be confirmed in a live charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $57.92 close, $57.62 intraday | StockAnalysis and Barchart showed the July 31, 2026 close near $57.92 and an August 3 intraday price near $57.62. The stock trades in a narrow range because of the pending Blackstone acquisition. |
| Near support | $55.64 to $56.32 | Uses the 52-week low near $55.64 and the July range low. A break below this zone would suggest the acquisition premium is eroding and deal risk is rising. |
| Near resistance | $58.03 to $59.53 | Uses Barchart resistance levels near $58.03 to $58.27 and the 52-week high near $59.53. A break above this zone would need positive acquisition news or an improved buyout offer. |
| 52-week range | $55.64 to $59.53 | Barchart and StockAnalysis showed this 52-week range around the cutoff. The narrow roughly $3.89 range reflects the acquisition overhang and very low realized volatility. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $57.54, 50-day $57.78, 100-day $58.34, 200-day $58.39 | Barchart technical data around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Price sits between the 20-day and 50-day averages and below the 100-day and 200-day averages, a mildly mixed setup. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI near 48.8 | Barchart showed a 14-day RSI near 48.8 and a 14-day ADX near 24, indicating low directional momentum. Price action is driven by acquisition headlines rather than organic technical forces. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 876,000 shares | Barchart showed a 20-day average volume near 876,037 shares as of the cutoff. Volume has been modest because the stock is a low-volatility merger-arbitrage name. |
| Volatility | Low, historic volatility near 7% | Barchart showed 14-day historic volatility near 6.9% to 7% and a beta near 0.17. Low realized volatility is a deal overhang effect, but an NMPRC or NRC decision could cause a sudden large move. |
| Invalidation | Close below $55.64 | A decisive close below the 52-week low of $55.64 would signal that the acquisition premium is unwinding and require a fresh review of deal risk. |
TXNM AI trading strategy
The TXNM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, live chart checks, and fresh company filings. The pending Blackstone acquisition makes this stock behave more like a merger-arbitrage situation than a normal utility trade.
TXNM is effectively a merger-arbitrage position. Monitor the spread between the current price and the $61.25 per share acquisition consideration. Track NMPRC and NRC hearing dates, the May 31, 2027 termination date, Blackstone financing conditions, and any competing bids or activist involvement.
The spread can widen on regulatory delay or political opposition. Position sizing should reflect the binary outcome risk. A close below $55.64 or a formal regulatory rejection should trigger exit.
If the Blackstone deal is definitively blocked, wait for TXNM to settle at a normal utility valuation. Re-evaluate based on organic rate base growth, the approved TNMP rate case, the NM and TX regulatory climate, dividend sustainability, and the updated 2026 to 2030 capital plan of $10.2 billion.
Do not buy immediately after deal failure. Allow time for forced seller liquidation and analyst downgrades to clear. Use a predefined maximum position size based on utility sector allocation.
Track NMPRC and NRC hearings and decisions, the Blackstone acquisition timeline, TXNM quarterly EPS, net debt, rate case filings, customer and load growth, and the PNM resource portfolio application. Monitor Texas regulatory developments for TNMP, whose rate case settlement was approved on July 30, 2026.
Reduce exposure if the NMPRC or NRC calendar slips significantly, if Blackstone signals renegotiation or a further extension, or if TXNM operating earnings deteriorate faster than guided.
Investment research summary
TXNM Energy owns regulated electric utilities in New Mexico (PNM) and Texas (TNMP). Customers pay regulated rates for reliable electricity delivery, and the company earns a regulator-approved return on its invested capital, with about 800,000 customers and roughly 2.7 GW of generation capacity.
Regulated utility franchises provide exclusive service territories, but the regulator sets allowed returns. The moat protects revenue from competition but limits profit growth to rate base expansion and operational efficiency.
The thesis can fail if NMPRC or NRC blocks the Blackstone deal, the acquisition price is renegotiated or another extension is needed, operating earnings decline due to weather or higher costs, or interest expense on roughly $5.94 billion of total debt pressures results.
President and CEO Don Tarry is leading the company through the Blackstone transaction, reporting a Q2 2026 ongoing EPS beat and a settled TNMP rate case. The board and management team now focus primarily on closing the Blackstone transaction and managing regulatory approvals.
TXNM is exposed to growing electricity demand from data centers, electrification, and population growth in the Southwest US, with new all-time system peaks reported this summer. However, as a regulated utility, revenue growth is capped by rate case outcomes and approved capital spending plans, and the Blackstone deal overhangs the equity.
The current price embeds a large acquisition premium, with roughly 5.7% upside to the $61.25 deal price as of the July 31 close. Margin of safety is thin for the deal-closing scenario and negative for the deal-failure scenario. The risk-reward profile favors waiting for regulatory clarity or a wider discount to the deal price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXNM price | $57.92 close on July 31, 2026; $57.62 intraday on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quotes | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $6.41 billion, verified as $57.92 times roughly 110.71 million shares | Barchart and financial_rigor.py check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 110.71 million shares | Barchart fundamentals | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $55.64 to $59.53 around the August 2026 cutoff | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Blackstone acquisition price | $61.25 per share, enterprise value of about $11.5 billion, announced May 19, 2025 | TXNM Energy Q2 2026 earnings release and Reuters | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | GAAP EPS of $0.64 and ongoing EPS of $0.58, versus the $0.57 consensus, released July 31, 2026 | TXNM Energy Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $2.23 billion for the trailing twelve months ended June 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai data) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $195.86 million for the trailing twelve months ended June 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai data) | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt and cash | About $5.94 billion of total debt and $14.59 million of cash | StockAnalysis.com financials (Fiscal.ai data) | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.69 annualized per share, a yield of about 2.92% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.17 | Barchart fundamentals | August 3, 2026 |
| Customer base | About 800,000 residential and business customers across New Mexico and Texas | TXNM Energy corporate website | August 3, 2026 |
| Generation capacity | About 2.7 GW total capacity including purchased power resources | Wikipedia and TXNM Energy corporate website | August 3, 2026 |
This TXNM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold TXNM Energy stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the cutoff date and can be wrong. The pending Blackstone acquisition introduces binary event risk that standard valuation models cannot capture.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
