Tetra Tech, Inc. research snapshot
TTEK AI stock analysis currently reads Tetra Tech as a high-quality technical services company with durable client relationships, strong water and environmental demand, and improving fiscal 2026 execution after the USAID reset. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, TTEK closed at $30.94 on July 10, implying a market capitalization of about $8.03 billion using 259.52 million shares. Tetra Tech reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.22 billion, net revenue of $1.05 billion, $0.34 adjusted EPS, and $4.28 billion of backlog. Management raised fiscal 2026 net revenue guidance to $4.25 billion to $4.40 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $1.50 to $1.58. The main case for the stock is long-lived demand for water, environmental remediation, resilient infrastructure, defense facilities, and digital water systems. The main risks are U.S. government funding, contract cancellation, labor availability, fixed-price execution, acquisitions, and a valuation that still requires steady cash conversion. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$30.94, July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.03 billion, based on 259.52 million shares
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality water, environmental, and infrastructure services compounder with government funding and execution exposure
Trend status
Constructive short term but below the 200-day average: price is above the 50-day average and RSI is positive, while longer-term resistance remains overhead
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tetra Tech sells specialized consulting, engineering, project management, and digital services for water, environmental, defense, and resilient infrastructure problems. Clients pay for technical judgment, regulatory knowledge, project execution, and institutional experience that are difficult to replace quickly. | High |
| Moat | The moat is medium to strong rather than absolute. Repeat contracts, technical credentials, security clearances, local relationships, a 25,000-person workforce, proprietary Delta technologies, and a long project record help Tetra Tech win complex work. The market remains competitive and fragmented. | Medium-high |
| Management | Roger Argus became CEO in February 2026 after more than 30 years at Tetra Tech. The company continues to use acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction as capital-allocation tools. The next test is whether the new leadership preserves project discipline while reallocating growth away from weaker development programs. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 reported revenue rose 4.7% to $5.443 billion and net revenue rose to $4.617 billion, while attributable net income was $247.7 million after unusual legal and impairment items. Q2 fiscal 2026 net revenue increased 8% year over year excluding USAID, DOS, and disaster effects, and trailing twelve-month operating cash flow was $688 million. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $30.94, the financial rigor calculation gives about 18.42 times TTM EPS, 4.31 times book value, 11.99 times free cash flow per share, and a 0.84% dividend yield. This is not a distressed multiple. The margin of safety depends on guidance delivery, cash conversion, and a stable earnings multiple. | High for calculation |
| Technical trend | The July 10 snapshot showed price above the 50-day moving average near $28.80 but below the 200-day average near $32.80. RSI was 65.49 and average 20-day volume was about 3.83 million shares. Momentum is constructive, but the stock is approaching a longer-term resistance reference rather than clearing it. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. The balance sheet is serviceable and cash flow is strong, but 31.6% of FY2025 revenue came from U.S. federal government work, USAID represented 10.6%, and government contracts may be reduced or terminated. Fixed-price work, cybersecurity, project estimates, acquisitions, and specialist retention also matter. | High for disclosed risks |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for disclosed facts and exact calculations, and medium for the forecast. The available data is rich, but no model can know which contracts will be funded, renewed, delayed, or terminated. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Tetra Tech looks like a good business with a credible long-term demand base, but the stock is not immune to a federal budget shock, a failed acquisition, a project loss, or multiple compression. | Medium |
TTEK AI stock forecast
The TTEK AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a guaranteed target. Using the July 10 price of $30.94, TTM EPS of $1.68, and 3-year assumptions, Pineify financial_rigor.py produced a bullish result of $49.20, a base result of $36.00, and a bearish result of $22.10. The ranges below widen those point estimates to reflect contract timing, government funding, margin, and valuation uncertainty.
$45 to $52
More likely if Tetra Tech delivers the upper end of fiscal 2026 net revenue guidance, adjusted EPS reaches or exceeds $1.58, backlog converts without major cancellations, non-USAID federal work grows, CIG maintains its water and infrastructure momentum, and the market supports a 20x to 22x earnings multiple.
$33 to $39
More likely if fiscal 2026 net revenue lands within the $4.25 billion to $4.40 billion guide, adjusted EPS is near $1.50 to $1.58, cash flow remains positive but normalizes after strong collections, and TTEK trades near an 18x to 20x earnings multiple.
$20 to $25
More likely if federal funding is reduced, USAID and other development work is not replaced, backlog is delayed or canceled, fixed-price projects produce losses, acquisitions require impairment, or the market rerates the company toward a 12x to 15x earnings multiple.
TTEK AI technical analysis
TTEK AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked on July 10. TTEK closed at $30.94, above the 50-day moving average near $28.80 and below the 200-day moving average near $32.80. RSI was 65.49, average 20-day volume was about 3.83 million shares, beta was 0.92, and the 52-week range was $25.81 to $43.14. These are reference levels, not trading instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $30.94 | July 10, 2026 close used for the valuation and market-cap calculation. |
| Immediate support | $28.80 | The 50-day moving average reference. A break is more meaningful when confirmed by volume and weaker operating guidance. |
| Major support | $25.81 to $26.50 | The lower end of the reported 52-week range and a broader downside reference for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $32.80 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained close above it would improve the longer-term chart structure. |
| Major resistance | $40 to $43.14 | A higher reference zone near the analyst target area and the 52-week high. It is well above the current price and should not be treated as a forecast. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 65.49; 20-day volume 3.83M; beta 0.92 | Momentum is positive but closer to an extended reading than to oversold conditions. Volume confirmation matters around the moving averages. |
| Trend invalidation | Close below $25.81 with weaker fundamentals | For this research framework, a decisive break of the 52-week low together with backlog, guidance, or cash-flow deterioration would invalidate the constructive medium-term thesis. |
TTEK AI trading strategy
This TTEK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. TTEK is sensitive to earnings releases, government contract news, backlog conversion, and the distance between price and its 50-day and 200-day averages. Any live decision should use updated prices, volume, filings, and personal risk limits.
Watch for price to hold above the 50-day average near $28.80 and then reclaim the 200-day average near $32.80 with improving volume. Confirm the move with Q3 guidance, backlog, net revenue growth excluding USAID and disasters, and stable operating margins.
Define an invalidation point before entry. A close below the 50-day average is a short-term warning, while a break below the $25.81 52-week low with weaker fundamentals is a broader thesis failure signal.
A pullback toward $28.80 or the $25.81 to $26.50 zone can be studied only if backlog remains healthy, the fiscal 2026 guide is intact, and operating cash flow is not being supported by a one-time collection benefit. Look for a reversal and volume stabilization rather than assuming a lower price is cheap.
Do not average down solely because TTEK is below a moving average. Reassess if federal contract funding, project margins, acquisition returns, or cash conversion deteriorate.
Track the July 29 earnings date, GSG and CIG net revenue, federal and international demand, backlog, USAID replacement work, operating cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and the share of fixed-price contracts. Use the stock screener and AI Stock Picker for peer comparisons.
Reduce confidence if backlog falls, customer cancellations rise, contract claims or project losses increase, specialist attrition worsens, debt rises faster than cash flow, or management lowers net revenue or adjusted EPS guidance.
Investment research summary
Tetra Tech is a technical problem-solving firm. Public agencies and private clients pay it to plan, design, manage, and improve complex water, environmental, defense, and infrastructure systems. Revenue is generated by professional labor, project execution, subcontractor management, and an expanding set of digital and AI-enabled tools. The business is less about owning physical infrastructure and more about owning expertise, relationships, and the ability to deliver regulated work.
The moat comes from repeat contracts, technical credentials, security clearances, local market knowledge, project references, and the ability to assemble interdisciplinary teams at scale. Tetra Tech reports work on more than 100,000 projects across over 100 countries and has ranked highly in water treatment and desalination. Its Tetra Tech Delta tools add software, analytics, digital twins, and AI-enabled asset management to the consulting relationship. The market is still competitive, so the moat is strongest in complex and regulated assignments.
The thesis can fail through a federal budget or policy shock, a prolonged gap after USAID contract cancellations, backlog reductions, fixed-price project losses, weak labor utilization, cyber incidents, environmental liability, or an acquisition that destroys rather than creates value. Backlog is not guaranteed revenue: Tetra Tech says about 70% of fiscal 2025 year-end backlog was expected to be recognized in fiscal 2026, but contracts can be delayed, reduced, or terminated. The key question is not whether demand exists, but whether funded work converts into profitable cash flow.
Roger Argus became CEO in February 2026 after more than three decades with Tetra Tech and extensive operating, environmental, engineering, and government-program experience. The company has used acquisitions to add technologies, clients, geography, and contract capacity, while also returning cash through buybacks and a dividend that was raised 11% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026. Management quality will be judged by how well it replaces lower-margin development work, integrates acquisitions, and maintains project controls during a leadership transition.
Water security, aging infrastructure, environmental remediation, climate adaptation, defense modernization, and digital asset management are durable needs. Tetra Tech sits at the front end of the value chain, where clients need studies, permits, engineering, design, and program management before capital projects are built. The long-term trend is favorable, but public budgets, election cycles, interest rates, construction timing, and the pace of data center and energy investment can change the timing of awards.
At $30.94, TTEK trades at about 18.42 times TTM EPS and 11.99 times TTM free cash flow per share using StockAnalysis inputs and exact financial rigor calculations. The base scenario of $36.00 assumes 6% annual EPS growth and an 18x terminal multiple for three years. That is a reasonable but not wide margin of safety. A lower multiple or a return of federal funding pressure can move the base case toward the bearish $22.10 model output.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTEK closing price | $30.94 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis history and Investing.com quote data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.03 billion calculated from $30.94 and 259.52 million shares; reported market cap about $8.03 billion | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q, StockAnalysis, and financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported revenue and net revenue | $5.443 billion reported revenue; $4.617 billion net revenue after subcontractor costs | Tetra Tech FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to Tetra Tech | $247.7 million | Tetra Tech FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis; cross-source difference 0.00% | July 12, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 results | $1.220 billion revenue, $1.050 billion net revenue, $0.36 GAAP EPS, and $0.34 adjusted EPS | Tetra Tech Q2 fiscal 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | $4.25 billion to $4.40 billion net revenue and $1.50 to $1.58 adjusted EPS | Tetra Tech Q2 fiscal 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Backlog | $4.28 billion at March 29, 2026, up 8% sequentially | Tetra Tech Q2 fiscal 2026 results and SEC 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $223.6 million cash; $880.2 million long-term debt carrying value at March 29, 2026; StockAnalysis reports $886.1 million net debt under its methodology | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash flow | $688.1 million TTM operating cash flow and $668.3 million TTM free cash flow; FY2025 FCF cross-check was $439.05 million versus Macrotrends $439.97 million | StockAnalysis, SEC filings, Macrotrends, and financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 18.42x PE, 4.31x PB, 11.99x P/FCF, 1.83x PS, and 0.84% dividend yield | StockAnalysis inputs and exact financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $28.80; 200-day moving average $32.80; RSI 65.49; average 20-day volume 3.83 million; beta 0.92 | StockAnalysis technical and statistics data | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 client mix | U.S. federal government 31.6%; state and local government 14.5%; U.S. commercial 16.5%; international 37.4% | Tetra Tech FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and company scale | Roger Argus became CEO in February 2026; Tetra Tech reports more than 25,000 employees and work in over 100 countries | Tetra Tech management profile and FY2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Roger Argus beneficially owned 40,022 shares and all directors and executive officers owned 1,271,572 shares as of December 23, 2025; each was less than 1% individually or as a group under the proxy table | Tetra Tech 2026 Proxy Statement | July 12, 2026 |
This TTEK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, financial statements, management guidance, contracts, backlog, and risk factors can change. Verify current filings and market data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
