Tetra Tech, Inc. research snapshot
TTEK AI stock analysis currently reads Tetra Tech as a high-quality technical services company with durable client relationships, strong water and environmental demand, and improving fiscal 2026 execution after the USAID reset. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, TTEK closed at $33.16 on July 31, implying a market capitalization of about $8.49 billion using 256.04 million shares. Tetra Tech reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.31 billion, net revenue of $1.11 billion, $0.42 EPS, $4.49 billion of backlog, and record cash flow. Management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.56 to $1.59 and narrowed net revenue guidance to $4.315 billion to $4.365 billion. The main case for the stock is long-lived demand for water, environmental remediation, resilient infrastructure, defense facilities, data center power systems, and digital water systems. The main risks are U.S. government funding, contract cancellation, federal revenue still below prior-year levels, labor availability, fixed-price execution, acquisitions, and a valuation that still requires steady cash conversion. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$33.16, July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.49 billion, based on 256.04 million shares
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality water, environmental, and infrastructure services compounder with improving fiscal 2026 execution, record cash flow, and rising backlog
Trend status
Constructive: price has reclaimed the 200-day average near $32.62 and holds above the 50-day average near $29.47, with RSI at 63.49 and a consensus Buy rating
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Tetra Tech sells specialized consulting, engineering, project management, and digital services for water, environmental, defense, and resilient infrastructure problems. Clients pay for technical judgment, regulatory knowledge, project execution, and institutional experience that are difficult to replace quickly. | High |
| Moat | The moat is medium to strong rather than absolute. Repeat contracts, technical credentials, security clearances, local relationships, a 25,000-person workforce, proprietary Tetra Tech Delta tools, and a long project record help Tetra Tech win complex work. The market remains competitive and fragmented. | Medium-high |
| Management | Roger Argus became CEO in February 2026 after more than 30 years at Tetra Tech. CFO Steve Burdick reported record operating cash flow of $467 million through the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. The company continues to use acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction as capital-allocation tools, and Q3 results came with raised guidance and a raised dividend. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 reported revenue rose 4.7% to $5.443 billion and net revenue rose to $4.617 billion, while attributable net income was $247.7 million after unusual legal and impairment items. Q3 fiscal 2026 net revenue increased 8% year over year excluding USAID, DOS, and disaster effects, TTM net income was $435.98 million, and TTM operating cash flow was $567 million. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $33.16, the financial rigor calculation gives about 19.98 times TTM EPS, 4.59 times book value, 15.50 times free cash flow per share, and a 0.87% dividend yield. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $39.67. The margin of safety depends on guidance delivery, cash conversion, and a stable earnings multiple. | High for calculation |
| Technical trend | The July 31 snapshot showed price above the 50-day moving average near $29.47 and above the 200-day average near $32.62. RSI was 63.49 and average 20-day volume was about 2.98 million shares. Price reclaimed the 200-day average, which improves the longer-term chart structure. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. The balance sheet is serviceable and cash flow is strong, but U.S. federal revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 fell to $923.6 million from $1.37 billion a year earlier, and government contracts may be reduced or terminated. Fixed-price work, cybersecurity, project estimates, acquisitions, and specialist retention also matter. | High for disclosed risks |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for disclosed facts and exact calculations, and medium for the forecast. The available data is rich, but no model can know which contracts will be funded, renewed, delayed, or terminated. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Tetra Tech looks like a good business with a credible long-term demand base, but the stock is not immune to a federal budget shock, a failed acquisition, a project loss, or multiple compression. | Medium |
TTEK AI stock forecast
The TTEK AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a guaranteed target. Using the July 31 price of $33.16, TTM EPS of $1.66, and 3-year assumptions, the Pineify financial_rigor tool produced a bullish result of $48.60, a base result of $35.60, and a bearish result of $21.60. The ranges below widen those point estimates to reflect contract timing, government funding, margin, and valuation uncertainty.
$44 to $52
More likely if Tetra Tech delivers the upper end of fiscal 2026 net revenue guidance near $4.365 billion, adjusted EPS reaches or exceeds $1.59, Q4 EPS lands near $0.48, backlog keeps rising, U.S. federal revenue stabilizes while international and data center work grow at a double-digit rate, and the market supports a 20x to 22x earnings multiple.
$33 to $39
More likely if fiscal 2026 net revenue lands within the $4.315 billion to $4.365 billion range, adjusted EPS is near $1.56 to $1.59, Q4 EPS is within the $0.45 to $0.48 guide, cash flow remains strong but normalizes after record collections, and TTEK trades near an 18x to 20x earnings multiple.
$20 to $25
More likely if federal funding is reduced further, USAID and other development work is not replaced, international demand slows, backlog is delayed or canceled, fixed-price projects produce losses, acquisitions require impairment, or the market rerates the company toward a 12x to 14x earnings multiple.
TTEK AI technical analysis
TTEK AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and the StockAnalysis technical snapshot checked on August 1, 2026. TTEK closed at $33.16, above the 50-day moving average near $29.47 and above the 200-day moving average near $32.62. RSI was 63.49, average 20-day volume was about 2.98 million shares, beta was 0.92, and the 52-week range was $25.81 to $43.14. These are reference levels, not trading instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $33.16 | July 31, 2026 close used for the valuation and market-cap calculation. |
| Immediate support | $32.62 | The 200-day moving average, now reclaimed. A retest that holds with stable volume is a positive signal, while a decisive loss would change the chart structure. |
| Major support | $29.47 | The 50-day moving average reference. A break is more meaningful when confirmed by volume and weaker operating guidance. |
| Lower support | $25.81 to $27 | The lower end of the reported 52-week range and a broader downside reference for the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $33.23 to $36 | The recent day high up to the lowest analyst target. A sustained close above $36 would open the way toward higher analyst targets. |
| Major resistance | $39.5 to $43.14 | The analyst median and average targets, then the 52-week high. These are reference zones and should not be treated as forecasts. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 63.49; 20-day volume 2.98M; beta 0.92 | Momentum is positive but closer to an extended reading than to oversold conditions. Volume confirmation matters around the moving averages. |
| Trend invalidation | Close below $25.81 with weaker fundamentals | For this research framework, a decisive break of the 52-week low together with backlog, guidance, or cash-flow deterioration would invalidate the constructive medium-term thesis. |
TTEK AI trading strategy
This TTEK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. TTEK is sensitive to earnings releases, government contract news, backlog conversion, and the distance between price and its 50-day and 200-day averages. Any live decision should use updated prices, volume, filings, and personal risk limits.
Watch for price to hold above the 200-day average near $32.62 and the 50-day average near $29.47 with improving volume. Confirm the move with Q4 fiscal 2026 results, backlog, net revenue growth excluding USAID, DOS, and disasters, and stable operating margins.
Define an invalidation point before entry. A close below the 200-day average is a short-term warning, while a break below the $25.81 52-week low with weaker fundamentals is a broader thesis failure signal.
A pullback toward the $32.62 200-day average or the $29.47 50-day average can be studied only if backlog remains healthy, the fiscal 2026 guide is intact, and operating cash flow is not being supported by a one-time collection benefit. Look for a reversal and volume stabilization rather than assuming a lower price is cheap.
Do not average down solely because TTEK is below a moving average. Reassess if federal contract funding, project margins, acquisition returns, or cash conversion deteriorate.
Track the next quarterly earnings release and fiscal 2027 guidance, GSG and CIG net revenue, federal and international demand, backlog, USAID replacement work, operating cash flow, debt, buybacks, dividends, and the share of fixed-price contracts. Use the stock screener and AI Stock Picker for peer comparisons.
Reduce confidence if backlog falls, customer cancellations rise, contract claims or project losses increase, specialist attrition worsens, debt rises faster than cash flow, or management lowers net revenue or adjusted EPS guidance.
Investment research summary
Tetra Tech is a technical problem-solving firm. Public agencies and private clients pay it to plan, design, manage, and improve complex water, environmental, defense, and infrastructure systems. Revenue is generated by professional labor, project execution, subcontractor management, and an expanding set of digital and AI-enabled tools. The business is less about owning physical infrastructure and more about owning expertise, relationships, and the ability to deliver regulated work.
The moat comes from repeat contracts, technical credentials, security clearances, local market knowledge, project references, and the ability to assemble interdisciplinary teams at scale. Tetra Tech reports work on more than 100,000 projects across over 100 countries and has ranked highly in water treatment and desalination. Its Tetra Tech Delta tools add software, analytics, digital twins, and AI-enabled asset management to the consulting relationship. The market is still competitive, so the moat is strongest in complex and regulated assignments.
The thesis can fail through a federal budget or policy shock, a prolonged gap after USAID contract cancellations, backlog reductions, fixed-price project losses, weak labor utilization, cyber incidents, environmental liability, or an acquisition that destroys rather than creates value. U.S. federal revenue for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 fell to $923.6 million from $1.37 billion a year earlier. Backlog is not guaranteed revenue: contracts can be delayed, reduced, or terminated. The key question is not whether demand exists, but whether funded work converts into profitable cash flow.
Roger Argus became CEO in February 2026 after more than three decades with Tetra Tech and extensive operating, environmental, engineering, and government-program experience. CFO Steve Burdick reported the strongest cash flow on record at $467 million from operations through the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. The company has used acquisitions to add technologies, clients, geography, and contract capacity, repurchased $200 million of stock in the first nine months, and raised the quarterly dividend 11% to $0.072. Management quality will be judged by how well it replaces lower-margin development work, integrates acquisitions, and maintains project controls during the leadership transition.
Water security, aging infrastructure, environmental remediation, climate adaptation, defense modernization, digital asset management, and data center power systems are durable needs. Tetra Tech sits at the front end of the value chain, where clients need studies, permits, engineering, design, and program management before capital projects are built. The long-term trend is favorable, but public budgets, election cycles, interest rates, construction timing, and the pace of data center and energy investment can change the timing of awards.
At $33.16, TTEK trades at about 19.98 times TTM EPS and 15.50 times TTM free cash flow per share using StockAnalysis inputs and exact financial rigor calculations. The base scenario of $35.60 assumes 6% annual EPS growth and an 18x terminal multiple for three years. That is a reasonable but not wide margin of safety. A lower multiple or a return of federal funding pressure can move the base case toward the bearish $21.60 model output.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTEK closing price | $33.16 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis real-time quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.49 billion calculated from $33.16 and 256.04 million shares; reported market cap about $8.49 billion with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis and exact financial rigor calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 results | $1.31 billion revenue, $1.11 billion net revenue, $158 million operating income, $173 million EBITDA, and $0.42 EPS | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 cash flow and backlog | $229 million cash from operations in the quarter, $567 million trailing twelve months, and $4.49 billion backlog up 5% sequentially and more than $200 million during the quarter | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Nine-month fiscal 2026 results | $3.74 billion revenue, $3.20 billion net revenue, $430 million operating income, $466 million adjusted EBITDA, $1.18 EPS, and $467 million cash from operations | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release and SEC 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | $4.315 billion to $4.365 billion net revenue and $1.56 to $1.59 adjusted EPS, both raised versus the prior guide | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance | Net revenue of $1.12 billion to $1.17 billion and EPS of $0.45 to $0.48 | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 28, 2026 | $230.8 million cash; $801.1 million long-term debt carrying value; $2.216 billion goodwill; StockAnalysis reports $1.02 billion total debt and negative net cash of $792.7 million under its methodology | SEC Q3 fiscal 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve-month financials | $4.36 billion revenue, $435.98 million net income, $1.66 EPS, $567.40 million operating cash flow, and $547.33 million free cash flow | StockAnalysis statistics and financials data | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 19.98x PE, 4.59x PB, 15.50x P/FCF, 1.95x PS, and 0.87% dividend yield based on exact calculation; StockAnalysis reports 19.92x, 4.58x, 15.51x, 1.95x, and 0.87% | StockAnalysis inputs and exact financial rigor calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $29.47; 200-day moving average $32.62; RSI 63.49; average 20-day volume 2.98 million; beta 0.92 | StockAnalysis technical and statistics data | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 8 analysts with an average price target of $39.67, a low of $36, and a high of $43 | StockAnalysis analyst forecast data | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and buybacks | Quarterly dividend raised 11% to $0.072, payable August 27, 2026; 45th consecutive double-digit increase; $100 million repurchased in Q3 fiscal 2026 and $398 million remaining under the repurchase program | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Client mix, nine-month fiscal 2026 | U.S. federal government $923.6 million; U.S. state and local government $522.3 million; U.S. commercial $667.5 million; international $1.626 billion | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 SEC 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Segment results, Q3 fiscal 2026 | GSG external revenue $590.6 million and segment operating income $82.8 million; CIG external revenue $718.0 million and segment operating income $95.5 million | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 SEC 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and company scale | Roger Argus is CEO, Steve Burdick is CFO; Tetra Tech reports more than 25,000 employees and work in over 100 countries | Tetra Tech Q3 fiscal 2026 press release and FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Management ownership | Roger Argus beneficially owned 40,022 shares and all directors and executive officers owned 1,271,572 shares as of December 23, 2025; each was less than 1% individually or as a group under the proxy table | Tetra Tech 2026 Proxy Statement | August 3, 2026 |
This TTEK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, financial statements, management guidance, contracts, backlog, and risk factors can change. Verify current filings and market data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
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