AptarGroup, Inc. research snapshot
ATR AI stock analysis currently rates AptarGroup as a quality industrial healthcare compounder with a watchlist to selective accumulation posture, not a certain buy signal. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, ATR closed at $125.53 on July 10, implying a market capitalization of about $8.01 billion using 63.82 million shares. Aptar reported 2025 sales of $3.777 billion and net income attributable to the company of about $392.8 million. First-quarter 2026 reported sales rose 11% to $982.9 million, but core sales were flat, adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.2%, and emergency-medicine destocking remained a headwind. The long-term case rests on proprietary drug delivery, injectables, GLP-1 related components, royalties, and recurring dispensing demand. The main risks are product mix, plant execution, currency, customer and regulatory cycles, debt, and the planned September 2026 CEO transition. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$125.53, July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$8.01 billion, based on 63.82 million shares
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality drug delivery and dispensing supplier with durable customer relationships, balanced by a near-term margin reset and a leadership transition
Trend status
Mixed near term and constructive longer term: price is near the 20-day and 50-day averages and above the 200-day average, with neutral RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aptar supplies drug delivery, dispensing, sealing, and material-science systems that customers integrate into regulated products and branded consumer goods. The best assets are tied to product performance, approvals, and customer development programs rather than only commodity packaging volume. | High |
| Moat | Proprietary designs, regulatory experience, engineering platforms, qualification work, manufacturing scale, patents, and customer switching friction create a medium to strong moat. The moat is narrower in more price-sensitive closures and consumer packaging. | Medium-high |
| Management | Stephan Tanda expanded Aptar through organic investment and roughly 20 bolt-on acquisitions, with most capital directed to Pharma. Gael Touya is scheduled to become CEO on September 1, 2026, making succession execution and capital allocation the next major test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue increased from $3.227 billion in 2021 to $3.777 billion in 2025, while net income rose from $244.1 million to $392.8 million over the same standardized series. Q1 2026 sales increased 11% reported, but core sales were flat and adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 19.2%. | High for reported data |
| Valuation | At $125.53, ATR trades near 21.5 times trailing EPS, 24.5 times TTM free cash flow per share, and 2.1 times sales. That is not distressed pricing, so the margin of safety depends on a return to earnings growth, stable cash conversion, and better Pharma and Beauty mix. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The July 12 technical snapshot showed RSI at 49.035, ATR(14) at $0.8254, a 20-day simple average at $125.00, a 50-day average at $125.79, and a 200-day average at $120.25. Momentum is not stretched, but the price is still testing the short-term average band. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Aptar has positive cash generation and manageable reported leverage, but it remains exposed to plant disruptions, input costs, currency, customer launches, emergency-medicine demand, regulatory requirements, litigation, and the economics of acquisitions. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the historical and current snapshot, and medium for the forecast. The model can organize the evidence, but it cannot know the timing of customer approvals, drug launches, pricing outcomes, or the next CEO's choices. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Aptar appears to be a good business at a full but defensible multiple. A stronger margin of safety would require either a lower entry price or clearer evidence that core growth and adjusted margins are recovering. | Medium |
ATR AI stock forecast
The ATR AI stock forecast uses a three-year EPS scenario model starting from $5.84 of trailing diluted EPS. The financial rigor tool produced $196.90 in a 12% growth and 24x exit P/E case, $154.50 in an 8% growth and 21x case, and $108.50 in a 3% growth and 17x case. The wider ranges below show uncertainty around currency, customer programs, capital spending, mix, and valuation. These are scenarios, not guaranteed price targets.
$170 to $200 over three years
More likely if injectables, GLP-1 related components, biologics, and systemic drug delivery produce sustained core growth, Pharma margins recover toward prior levels, Beauty and Closures improve, the CEO transition is smooth, and EPS compounds near 12%.
$145 to $160 over three years
More likely if Aptar returns to mid-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted margins stabilize, free cash flow supports dividends and repurchases, and investors maintain a multiple near 21x as the next CEO continues the existing strategy.
$100 to $115 over three years
More likely if emergency-medicine weakness lasts longer, customer launches slip, margins stay below historical levels, currency or input costs worsen, acquisitions underperform, or the market assigns a lower multiple to only low-single-digit EPS growth.
ATR AI technical analysis
ATR AI technical analysis is mixed but not overextended as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Investing.com reported a neutral RSI of 49.035, ATR(14) of $0.8254, a daily technical-indicator summary of Strong Buy, and moving averages with an even buy and sell split. The July 10 close was above the 200-day average but close to the 20-day and 50-day bands, so price confirmation matters more than one signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $125.53 | July 10, 2026 NYSE close used for the market-cap and valuation context. |
| Near support | $120.25 to $123.04 | The lower end is the 200-day simple average and the upper end is a recent July 8 intraday low. These are reference levels, not guaranteed floors. |
| Recent swing support | $117.72 to $120.00 | StockAnalysis history showed repeated June support in this zone before the recovery toward $125. |
| 20-day SMA | $125.00 | Investing.com July 12, 2026 technical snapshot; price was only slightly above this average. |
| 50-day SMA | $125.79 | The first short-term recovery hurdle in the July 12 snapshot. |
| 200-day SMA | $120.25 | Longer-term trend reference; price remained above it at the cutoff. |
| Resistance | $125.79 to $126.47 | The 50-day average and classic pivot resistance form the first overhead band. |
| Higher resistance | $126.98 to $128.72 | The recent July 10 close and July 7 high define a nearby breakout test. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 49.035; average volume about 459K | Momentum was neutral and 20-day average volume was about 459,124 shares. A breakout needs volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | ATR(14) $0.8254, about 0.66% of price | The current ATR indicates relatively contained ordinary daily movement, while earnings and regulatory gaps can be larger. |
| Research invalidation | Sustained close below $117.72 | A sustained break of the recent support zone, especially with weaker margins or guidance, would require a full thesis review. |
ATR AI trading strategy
The ATR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. Use live prices, filings, earnings dates, volume, and your own risk limits before considering any trade or investment decision.
Watch for a sustained close above the $125.79 to $126.47 band with volume above its recent average, while Pharma core sales and adjusted EBITDA margin show sequential improvement. A move through $126.98 to $128.72 would provide stronger price confirmation.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $120.25 weakens the setup. Do not treat a moving-average break as a complete thesis by itself.
If price holds $120.25 to $123.04 and RSI recovers from a neutral or weaker reading, compare the move with the Q2 earnings release, emergency-medicine demand, Pharma margin, and free cash flow before calling it a reversal.
Do not assume that a lower price is automatically cheap. Define the invalidation level in advance and avoid averaging down if core sales, cash conversion, or customer programs deteriorate.
Track core sales by Pharma, Beauty, and Closures; injectables and GLP-1 component demand; adjusted EBITDA margin; royalties; capex; free cash flow; debt; share repurchases; the July 30 earnings date; and Gael Touya's transition plan.
Reduce confidence if 2026 emergency-medicine weakness expands, margin recovery stalls, working capital absorbs cash, acquisitions require repeated adjustments, or the leadership change alters the long-term capital allocation framework.
Investment research summary
Aptar earns money by designing and manufacturing components that deliver, dose, protect, or dispense medicines and consumer products. Customers pay for reliable function, engineering support, regulatory experience, and manufacturing quality. The most attractive revenue is embedded in approved or branded products where changing a component can require qualification work and operational risk.
Aptar's moat combines proprietary designs, patents, process know-how, qualification history, global manufacturing, and relationships with pharmaceutical and consumer brands. Pharma is the strongest part of the moat because failure can affect product safety, delivery, and approval. Closures and some Beauty categories face more price pressure and more direct competition.
The thesis fails if customers redesign products around cheaper alternatives, drug launches or approvals slip, emergency-medicine destocking persists, plant execution or input costs compress margins, currency reduces reported results, acquisitions do not earn their returns, or Aptar overinvests ahead of demand. A good business can still be a poor investment if the starting multiple assumes a faster recovery than the evidence supports.
Stephan Tanda has led Aptar since 2017 and the company credits his tenure with global expansion, operational discipline, and about 20 bolt-on acquisitions and investments, mostly in Pharma. Gael Touya, currently President of Aptar Pharma, is scheduled to become CEO on September 1, 2026. The succession plan provides continuity, but the key question is whether the new team preserves disciplined capital allocation without weakening innovation or customer execution.
Drug delivery is linked to long-term demand for biologics, injectable therapies, respiratory and nasal delivery, self-administration, and better patient convenience. Aptar also participates in beauty, personal care, home care, food, and beverage dispensing. That mix reduces dependence on one drug, but it also means the company is exposed to consumer demand, resin and labor costs, customer inventory, regulation, and the timing of product launches.
At $125.53, financial rigor calculations show about 21.49x trailing EPS, 3.05x book value, 24.52x free cash flow per share, and a 1.53% dividend yield. The price is reasonable only if Aptar can restore core growth and protect cash conversion. The margin of safety is limited if the company remains a low-single-digit grower with persistently lower margins, even though its balance sheet and dividend record are sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATR closing price | $125.53 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Finviz | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.01 billion reported; approximately $8.011 billion calculated | StockAnalysis plus financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 63.82 million shares | StockAnalysis; Finviz showed 63.90 million | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.777 billion, up 5.42% from 2024 | SEC Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $392.8 million attributable to AptarGroup | SEC Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | Pharma $1.737B; Beauty $1.309B; Closures $730.3M | Aptar 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and core sales | $982.9M reported sales, up 11%; core sales flat | Aptar Q1 2026 results and SEC Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability and free cash flow | $72.7M net income; $188.9M adjusted EBITDA; $53.3M free cash flow | Aptar Q1 2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM financial snapshot | $3.873B revenue; $386.67M net income; $327M free cash flow | StockAnalysis, updated July 12, 2026 | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $229.48M cash and short-term investments; about $1.44B total debt; net debt about $1.21B | Aptar Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation context | 21.49x PE; 3.05x PB; 24.52x P/FCF; 1.53% dividend yield | Financial rigor calculation using StockAnalysis data | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI 49.035; ATR(14) $0.8254; 20-day SMA $125.00; 50-day SMA $125.79; 200-day SMA $120.25 | Investing.com technical data, July 12, 2026 | July 12, 2026 |
| CEO succession | Gael Touya scheduled to become CEO on September 1, 2026; Stephan Tanda to advise through year end | Aptar leadership page and SEC proxy materials | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow source gap | FY2025 FCF $299.58M at StockAnalysis versus $303.13M at Macrotrends, a small methodology difference | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
This ATR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical indicators, financial statements, dividends, management plans, and risk factors can change. Verify current filings and market data and consult a qualified professional before acting.
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