Powell Industries, Inc. research snapshot
POWL AI stock analysis currently reads Powell Industries as a financially strong, custom-engineered electrical equipment supplier that is converting a record backlog into revenue. Fiscal 2026 second-quarter revenue was $296.6 million, backlog reached $1.8 billion at March 31, 2026, and a post-quarter mega data center order exceeded $400 million. The July 31 price of $208.68 was about 40.7x trailing EPS and below the 50-day moving average, while analyst targets averaged $316.25 with a Buy consensus. This POWL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction. It is an informational tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$208.68 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$7.60 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
A financially strong backlog-driven electrical equipment business priced at a premium multiple, with execution and cyclical risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day moving average near $263.97, above the 200-day average near $190.63, with weak near-term momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Powell designs, manufactures, and services custom electrical distribution, control, monitoring, and protection systems for utilities, energy, data centers, and industrial customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from engineering know-how, project qualification, tested products, customer relationships, field service, and the ability to integrate many components into one engineered deliverable. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Brett Cope has led Powell since 2016. Management has expanded capacity, acquired Remsdaq for SCADA capability, maintained a cash-rich balance sheet, continued dividends, and completed a three-for-one stock split. Execution against large projects remains the test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 9.1% to $1.104 billion and net income rose 20.6% to $180.75 million. TTM revenue was $1.132 billion, TTM net income $186.93 million, and TTM free cash flow about $192.5 million through March 31, 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $208.68, POWL traded near 40.7x trailing EPS, 6.72x sales, 10.72x book value, and 39.5x free cash flow. The $544.9 million cash and short-term investment balance supports the enterprise value, but the equity is still priced for substantial growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock was below the 50-day moving average near $263.97 but above the 200-day average near $190.63. RSI near 39.01 signals weak momentum without proving a reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high for a cyclical industrial stock because backlog can be delayed or reduced, fixed-price contracts can suffer cost overruns, and a premium multiple can compress even when the business remains profitable. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for descriptive facts and audited calculations, and medium for chart levels, scenario prices, and the interpretation of the current cycle. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. POWL has a strong financial position and visible orders, but the market price still assumes substantial future growth. | Medium |
POWL AI stock forecast
The POWL AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario range, not a price promise. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $208.68, trailing diluted EPS of $5.12, and the required financial_rigor.py model, the bullish, base, and bearish cases produced model prices of $450.00, $294.40, and $109.70. The displayed ranges are wider to reflect project timing, margins, and multiple uncertainty.
$395 to $475
More likely if the $1.8 billion backlog converts on schedule, the post-quarter $400 million-plus data center order becomes profitable revenue, utility and commercial orders remain strong, gross margin stays near 30%, and EPS compounds near 25% while investors keep a premium multiple near 45x.
$265 to $320
More likely if EPS compounds near the roughly 18% three-year growth reference, backlog converts with normal project timing, cash generation remains healthy, and the market values the company near a 35x multiple rather than the current 40x plus.
$90 to $120
More likely if utility, data center, or oil and gas projects are delayed or canceled, fixed-price contracts absorb material and labor inflation, new orders slow, EPS declines about 5% annually, and the market rerates POWL toward a 25x industrial multiple.
POWL AI technical analysis
POWL AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot. The stock closed at $208.68, below its 50-day moving average near $263.97 and above its 200-day moving average near $190.63. RSI was 39.01, average 20-day volume was 785,063 shares, beta was 1.13, and the 52-week range was $69.00 to $328.00. These levels are static references and should be checked against a live chart.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $208.68 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for the market-cap and valuation calculations. |
| Near support | $195 to $205 | A short-term planning zone around the late-July closing range. A break matters more if volume expands and fundamental estimates weaken. |
| Major support | $188 to $192 | The 200-day moving-average area near $190.63. A sustained break would weaken the long-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $232 to $247 | The mid-July price cluster and the first technical repair zone after the decline from the June highs. |
| Major resistance | $263 to $328 | The 50-day moving-average area near $263.97 and the reported 52-week high area near $328.00. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $263.97; 200-day $190.63 | The price is below the short-term average but above the long-term average as of the July 31 snapshot. |
| Momentum | RSI 39.01 | Momentum is weak, but RSI alone does not establish a durable bottom. |
| Volume | About 785,063 shares average (20-day) | Breakouts above the 50-day average or breaks below the 200-day average have more information when participation expands. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.13; 52-week range $69.00 to $328.00 | The wide range and above-market beta call for smaller position sizing in any rules-based framework. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $188 | A decisive break below the 200-day area near $190 would weaken the current long-term setup and require a fresh backlog and valuation review. |
POWL AI trading strategy
This POWL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized financial advice. It combines price confirmation with backlog conversion, gross margin, order intake, cash flow, and fixed-price contract risk.
Wait for POWL to reclaim the $232 to $247 mid-July zone with improving volume and confirmation that new orders and gross margin remain healthy before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $205 is a warning. A break below $190 weakens the long-term technical thesis.
If POWL stabilizes near $195 to $205 or the $188 to $192 200-day area, compare the price reset with the next backlog update, data center order execution, cash conversion, and the roughly 40x earnings valuation.
Do not average down solely because the backlog is large. Require evidence that orders are turning into revenue and cash without margin deterioration.
Track Q3 FY2026 results, book-to-bill, backlog, data center and electric utility order mix, gross margin, operating cash flow, contract assets and liabilities, material costs, labor availability, and the next share count update.
Lower confidence if backlog falls, project costs rise, cash conversion weakens, or earnings estimates decline while the stock still carries a premium multiple.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Powell to engineer and deliver electrical systems that distribute, control, monitor, and protect power in complex industrial and infrastructure projects. The value is integration, qualification, project execution, and service, not a simple commodity product.
Powell benefits from application engineering, tested switchgear and control systems, customer qualification, field service, and project relationships. Switching costs are meaningful during a project, but large electrical equipment competitors and customer bidding keep the moat practical rather than absolute.
The thesis fails if backlog is delayed, canceled, or repriced; fixed-price contracts suffer cost overruns; supply or labor constraints prevent delivery; or data center and utility capital spending cools. A high starting multiple can amplify the share-price response to an ordinary earnings slowdown.
Brett Cope has served as CEO since 2016. Management has completed Houston capacity work, expanded the Jacintoport facility, acquired Remsdaq for SCADA capability, maintained no material borrowings, continued dividends, and executed a three-for-one stock split in April 2026. The key test is disciplined allocation and execution as projects become larger.
Powell sits in a favorable but cyclical part of industrial electrification. Utility upgrades, data center power demand, and industrial projects support a long-term demand trend. The company reported strong commercial, electric utility, and oil and gas orders, but the timing of capital projects remains outside its control.
The balance sheet is a strength, with about $544.9 million of cash and short-term investments and only about $2.0 million of debt. The margin of safety is less clear at 40.7x trailing EPS and 39.5x free cash flow. The price still needs sustained growth, not just a good business.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| POWL price | $208.68 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis price snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.60 billion, verified as $208.68 x 36,431,499 shares | SEC Q2 2026 filing, StockAnalysis, financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $1.104 billion | Powell FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1.132 billion through March 31, 2026 | SEC-derived TTM and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $186.93 million | SEC-derived TTM and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $192.52 million, or $5.28 per share | StockAnalysis and SEC cash-flow statements | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 operating data | $296.6 million revenue, $45.9 million net income, 29.6% gross margin | Powell Q2 FY2026 earnings release and SEC 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Backlog and new orders | $1.8 billion backlog at March 31, 2026; $490 million Q2 orders; later data center order above $400 million | Powell Q2 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $544.89 million cash and short-term investments; about $1.96 million debt in the StockAnalysis snapshot | SEC Q2 2026 filing and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 40.73x PE, 10.72x PB, 39.49x P/FCF, 6.72x PS, 2.99 PEG, and 0.17% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py using SEC and StockAnalysis inputs | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 4 analysts; average target $316.25, low $252, high $360 | StockAnalysis forecast page | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $263.97; 200-day average $190.63; RSI 39.01; average 20-day volume 785,063 | StockAnalysis technical statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This POWL page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, and estimates should be rechecked before any financial decision.
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