AAON, Inc. research snapshot
AAON AI stock analysis still reads AAON, Inc. as a high-quality, engineering-led HVAC manufacturer whose BASX data center cooling business is the growth engine, backed by a record $2.13 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance for 40% to 45% revenue growth. The refreshed picture changes the tone because the stock fell from the June 2026 high of $150.46 to $89.06 at the July 31, 2026 close, which pushed the trailing PE from about 80x to about 62.7x, pulled price below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and sent RSI to about 28.9. The valuation is more reasonable than in July but still rich on trailing earnings, and free cash flow remains negative while capacity investments absorb cash. This AAON AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction, with the August 10, 2026 second-quarter report as the next key catalyst. The page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$89.06
Market cap
$7.30 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Durable data center cooling franchise at a compressed multiple after a sharp selloff; Q2 earnings and cash conversion are the swing factors
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a roughly 41% drawdown from the June high, with RSI near oversold
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AAON sells configurable rooftop units, air handlers, coils, controls, and specialized cooling systems to commercial, industrial, cleanroom, and data center customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from engineering know-how, testing infrastructure, long product qualification, aftermarket service, independent representatives, and lifecycle energy performance. | Medium-high |
| Management | Andy Cheung joined as CFO on April 20, 2026, Rebecca Thompson moved to Chief Accounting Officer, Luke Bomer became General Counsel, and the board added two independent directors on July 30, 2026. The test remains capacity absorption and cash conversion during the growth ramp. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew 20.1% to $1.442 billion, Q1 2026 revenue grew 54.3% to $496.9 million with diluted EPS up 37.1% to $0.48, and TTM revenue reached about $1.617 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $89.06, AAON traded near 62.7x TTM EPS, 7.8x book value, and 37.0x forward PE on the StockAnalysis snapshot, down sharply from the July levels. TTM free cash flow was negative because capacity and working capital absorbed cash. | High |
| Technical trend | Price closed below the 50-day average near $121.46 and below the 200-day average near $100.65, with RSI near 28.9, average 20-day volume about 1.09 million shares, and beta near 1.41. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for a premium industrial stock because data center concentration, project timing, the August 10 report, commodity costs, capacity absorption, debt, and multiple swings can all affect returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for the forecast range and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The page describes a durable business whose multiple has reset, but Q2 execution and cash conversion still decide the near-term path, not an automatic buy signal. | Medium |
AAON AI stock forecast
The AAON AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a price promise. Pineify financial_rigor.py modeled three years from $89.06 and TTM GAAP EPS of $1.42. With EPS growth assumptions of 45%, 25%, and 0% and target PE ratios of 50x, 35x, and 25x, the model produced $216.50, $97.10, and $35.50. Because the July selloff showed how fast the multiple can move, the ranges below set more conservative endpoints around those model outputs.
$150 to $180
More likely if the August 10 report confirms the 40% to 45% revenue outlook, gross margin moves toward 27% to 28%, the $2.1 billion backlog converts on time, BASX keeps gaining data center share, and operating cash flow improves as Memphis and Longview utilization rises, allowing the multiple to recover toward a mid-to-high 30s forward PE.
$90 to $105
More likely if revenue remains strong but growth normalizes after the Q1 surge, EPS compounds near 25% for three years, gross margin settles in the mid-20s, and the market holds a forward multiple near 35x while capital spending stays elevated.
$45 to $60
More likely if Q2 results disappoint, data center orders are delayed or canceled, gross margin stays near 25%, contract assets and inventory keep consuming cash, debt rises, or the market rerates AAON toward a low-20s industrial multiple before growth stabilizes.
AAON AI technical analysis
AAON AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot. AAON closed at $89.06, below the 50-day moving average near $121.46 and below the 200-day moving average near $100.65. RSI was about 28.9, average 20-day volume about 1,089,556 shares, beta about 1.41, and the 52-week range was $62.00 to $150.46.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $89.06 | July 31, 2026 close used for the valuation and market-cap calculation. |
| Immediate support | $84 to $87 | The late-July swing low zone near $84.66. A break should be judged against volume and the August 10 report, not price alone. |
| Major support | $72 to $78 | A reference zone below the recent lows, with the 52-week low near $62.00 as the deeper anchor if the downtrend extends. |
| Near resistance | $100 to $102 | The 200-day moving average near $100.65 is now the first repair zone after price moved below it. |
| Major resistance | $121 to $123 | The 50-day moving average near $121.46 is the main trend-repair area if the stock stabilizes and recovers. |
| Momentum | RSI near 28.9 | Momentum is weak and close to oversold territory. Follow-through and volume matter more than a single RSI reading. |
| Volume | About 1,089,556 shares average | The late-July breakdown printed elevated volume, including about 2.03 million shares on July 29, so a reversal should ideally come with rising participation. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.41; 52-week range $62.00 to $150.46 | AAON moves more than the broad market and can react sharply to backlog, data center, margin, rate, and earnings news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $84 | A decisive break below the late-July lows would signal continuation of the downtrend toward the $72 to $78 zone, while a close back above $102 would be the first repair sign. |
AAON AI trading strategy
This AAON AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized financial advice. It links price action to the August 10 Q2 report, backlog conversion, gross margin, capacity utilization, operating cash flow, revolver debt, and data center order quality.
The dominant trend is down while price stays below $100. Watch for a sustained close above the 200-day area near $102 with expanding volume and a Q2 report that confirms the 40% to 45% revenue outlook and improving gross margin. A reclaim of the 50-day near $121 would be the stronger repair signal.
Treat a failed reclaim of $100 to $102 followed by a close below $84 as a warning. A decisive break below $84 targets the $72 to $78 zone and requires updated backlog and cash-flow evidence before any re-entry.
RSI near 29 and a roughly 41% drawdown from the June high can set up a technical bounce, but only if the stock stabilizes above $84 to $87 and the August 10 report does not cut the revenue outlook or worsen margin and cash flow.
Do not average down only because backlog is large. Require evidence that contract assets, inventory, revolver debt, gross margin, and operating cash flow are moving in a healthier direction, and size the position for the possibility that the downtrend continues.
Track the August 10 second-quarter report, BASX sales and backlog, AAON-branded demand, gross margin progression toward 27% to 28%, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, the revolver draw near $425 million, contract assets, copper and aluminum costs, and tariff-related costs.
Lower the rating if the Q2 report misses or cuts guidance, backlog growth stops converting into revenue, gross margin stays below the target range, operating cash flow remains weak after capacity ramps, or the stock keeps a high multiple while earnings estimates fall.
Investment research summary
Customers pay AAON for engineered climate-control equipment that fits difficult commercial and industrial applications, runs efficiently, lasts, and can be supported through the equipment lifecycle. BASX adds customized thermal management for data centers, cleanrooms, healthcare, and industrial sites.
The moat is practical rather than purely brand-based. AAON combines mass semi-customization, a large environmental testing lab, product certifications, controls expertise, independent representatives, service support, and lifecycle performance. These features raise qualification and switching friction, but larger competitors have more capital.
The thesis fails if AI data center demand slows, large BASX projects are delayed or canceled, the August 10 report disappoints, capacity additions remain underabsorbed, raw material and tariff costs outrun pricing, or negative free cash flow requires more debt and eventually exposes the valuation. The 2026 selloff is a reminder that the multiple itself can compress quickly.
CEO Matt Tobolski is managing a large capacity and systems investment cycle with a refreshed finance team: Andy Cheung as CFO, Rebecca Thompson as Chief Accounting Officer, and Luke Bomer as General Counsel, plus two new independent directors added in July 2026. The key test is whether those investments produce durable returns and better cash conversion without weakening the balance sheet.
Energy efficiency, refrigerant transitions, building replacement, electrification, and data center power density create long-term demand for better thermal management. The industry is still cyclical, and AAON is especially exposed to data center construction budgets, project timing, and technology changes.
At $89.06, the verified TTM PE was about 62.7x, forward PE about 37.0x, and price-to-book about 7.8x. TTM free cash flow was negative about $145 million after heavy capital spending and working-capital needs. The multiple has reset from July levels and the margin of safety has improved, but the price still assumes strong earnings growth and a real cash-flow recovery.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAON quote reference | $89.06 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis AAON overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7.30 billion reported, calculated at $7.29 billion using $89.06 x 81.91 million shares with 0.07% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 81.91 million shares in the latest market snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics and AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $1.442 billion revenue and $107.6 million net income, cross-validated against StockAnalysis within 0.1% | AAON 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment sales | AAON Oklahoma $801.2 million, AAON Coil Products $325.4 million, and BASX $315.5 million | AAON 2025 Form 10-K segment table | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $496.9 million sales, $39.8 million net income, $0.48 diluted EPS, and 54.3% sales growth | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and investor release | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog and 2026 outlook | $2.129 billion backlog at March 31, 2026, up 107.4% year over year; 2026 revenue growth outlook 40% to 45%, gross margin outlook about 27% to 28%, and D&A $95 to $100 million | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and investor release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital spending | TTM operating cash flow about $43.7 million, capital expenditures about $189.0 million, and free cash flow negative about $145.2 million | StockAnalysis cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | March 31, 2026 cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash $1.1 million, revolver drawn $425.2 million of a $600 million commitment, and about $173.5 million of borrowings available | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and investor release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical indicators | TTM PE 62.71x, forward PE 36.99x, price-to-book 7.80x, 50-day average $121.46, 200-day average $100.65, RSI 28.96, beta 1.41 | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and next earnings | Five analysts rate AAON a Buy with a $151.33 average price target; second-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for August 10, 2026 after market close | StockAnalysis forecast and AAON investor relations | August 3, 2026 |
This AAON AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and stated assumptions as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if the August 10 second-quarter report, earnings, backlog conversion, data center demand, costs, rates, competition, or market sentiment change.
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