AAON, Inc. research snapshot
AAON AI stock analysis currently reads AAON, Inc. as a high-quality, engineering-led HVAC manufacturer with a fast-growing BASX data center cooling business, a large backlog, and a differentiated semi-custom production model. The caution is equally specific: FY2025 gross margin fell to 26.7%, operating cash flow was only about $0.5 million after heavy working-capital investment, and the July 10, 2026 price near $114.16 implied about 80.4x trailing earnings. AAON is a strong operating story with a demanding price, so this AAON AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. The page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$114.16
Market cap
$9.35 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
High-growth HVAC and data center cooling franchise, valuation and cash conversion watch
Trend status
Above the 200-day average, below the 50-day average after a pullback
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AAON sells configurable rooftop units, air handlers, coils, controls, and specialized cooling systems to commercial, industrial, cleanroom, and data center customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from engineering know-how, testing infrastructure, long product qualification, aftermarket service, independent representatives, and lifecycle energy performance. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has funded large capacity additions, a new Memphis facility, controls development, and BASX expansion while continuing modest dividends and buybacks. Execution and working-capital discipline are the tests. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue grew 20.1% to $1.442 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue grew 54.3% to $496.9 million and diluted EPS grew 37.1% to $0.48. | High |
| Valuation | At $114.16, AAON traded near 80.4x TTM EPS, 10.0x book value, and 47.3x forward PE on the StockAnalysis snapshot. Free cash flow was negative because capacity and working capital absorbed cash. | High |
| Technical trend | Price was below the 50-day average near $126.07 but above the 200-day average near $100.19, with RSI near 41.7 and beta near 1.41. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high for a premium industrial stock because data center concentration, project timing, commodity costs, capacity absorption, leverage, and multiple compression can all affect returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for the forecast range and chart levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. The page describes a durable business with an execution-sensitive valuation, not an automatic buy signal. | Medium |
AAON AI stock forecast
The AAON AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a price promise. Pineify financial_rigor.py modeled three years from $114.16 and TTM GAAP EPS of $1.42. With EPS growth assumptions of 45%, 25%, and 0% and target PE ratios of 50x, 35x, and 25x, the model produced $216.50, $97.10, and $35.50. The ranges below widen those outputs to reflect execution and multiple uncertainty.
$200 to $225
More likely if the 2026 revenue growth outlook of 40% to 45% is delivered, gross margin moves toward 27% to 28%, the $2.1 billion backlog converts on time, BASX keeps gaining data center share, and operating cash flow improves as Memphis and Longview utilization rises.
$90 to $105
More likely if revenue remains strong but normalizes after the Q1 surge, EPS compounds near 25% for three years, gross margin stays in the mid-20s, and the market assigns a lower 35x multiple while capital spending remains elevated.
$30 to $40
More likely if data center orders are delayed or canceled, traditional HVAC demand stays soft, gross margin remains near 25%, contract assets keep consuming cash, debt rises, or the market rerates AAON toward a 25x industrial multiple.
AAON AI technical analysis
AAON AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and the latest StockAnalysis technical snapshot. AAON closed at $114.16, below the 50-day moving average near $126.07 and above the 200-day moving average near $100.19. RSI was about 41.7, average 20-day volume about 955,304 shares, beta about 1.41, and the 52-week range was $62.00 to $150.46.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $114.16 | July 10, 2026 close used for the valuation and market-cap calculation. |
| Immediate support | $107 to $110 | A short-term reference zone below the July 10 close. A break should be judged against volume and earnings expectations, not price alone. |
| Major support | $98 to $102 | The 200-day moving average area near $100.19 is the main medium-term trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $127 | The 50-day moving average near $126.07 is the first repair zone after the pullback. |
| Major resistance | $145 to $150 | The upper end of the 52-week range is the next major supply area if the stock reclaims the 50-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41.7 | Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold. Follow-through and volume matter more than a single RSI reading. |
| Volume | About 955,304 shares average | A breakout above $126 or a break below $100 has more information when participation expands. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.41; 52-week range $62 to $150.46 | AAON has moved more than the broad market and can react sharply to backlog, data center, margin, and rate news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $100 | A decisive break below the 200-day area would weaken the current long-term trend setup and require a fresh fundamental review. |
AAON AI trading strategy
This AAON AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized financial advice. It links price action to backlog conversion, gross margin, capacity utilization, contract assets, debt, and data center order quality.
Watch for a sustained close above $125 to $127 with improving volume while the next earnings update confirms the 40% to 45% revenue outlook, rising utilization, and stable or improving gross margin.
Treat a failed reclaim followed by a close below $110 as a warning. A break below $100 weakens the medium-term trend and the thesis needs updated backlog and cash-flow evidence.
If AAON moves toward $100 to $110 without a cut to the revenue outlook or a deterioration in BASX backlog, compare the reset price with the base scenario and the latest cash-conversion data.
Do not average down only because backlog is large. Require evidence that contract assets, inventory, debt, and gross margin are moving in a healthier direction.
Track the next earnings release, BASX sales and backlog, AAON-branded demand, gross margin, operating margin, operating cash flow, capital expenditure, debt, contract assets, copper and aluminum costs, and customer order timing.
Lower the rating if backlog growth stops converting into revenue, gross margin stays below the target range, operating cash flow remains weak after capacity ramps, or the stock keeps a high multiple while earnings estimates fall.
Investment research summary
Customers pay AAON for engineered climate-control equipment that fits difficult commercial and industrial applications, runs efficiently, lasts, and can be supported through the equipment lifecycle. BASX adds customized thermal management for data centers, cleanrooms, healthcare, and industrial sites.
The moat is practical rather than purely brand-based. AAON combines mass semi-customization, a large environmental testing lab, product certifications, controls expertise, independent representatives, service support, and lifecycle performance. These features raise qualification and switching friction, but larger competitors have more capital.
The thesis fails if AI data center demand slows, large BASX projects are delayed or canceled, capacity additions remain underabsorbed, raw material costs outrun pricing, ERP and supply-chain disruptions recur, or negative free cash flow requires more debt and eventually exposes the valuation.
CEO Matthew J. Tobolski and CFO Rebecca A. Thompson are managing a large capacity and systems investment cycle. Management has continued R&D, controls, buybacks, dividends, and manufacturing expansion. The key test is whether those investments produce durable returns and better cash conversion without weakening the balance sheet.
Energy efficiency, refrigerant transitions, building replacement, electrification, and data center power density create long-term demand for better thermal management. The industry is still cyclical, and AAON is especially exposed to data center construction budgets, project timing, and technology changes.
At $114.16, the verified TTM PE was about 80.4x and forward PE was about 47.3x. FY2025 free cash flow was negative after $190.6 million of capital expenditures and large working-capital needs. The price assumes strong earnings growth and a meaningful cash-flow recovery, so the margin of safety is limited.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAON quote reference | $114.16 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis AAON overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.35 billion calculated and reported, using $114.16 x 81.91 million shares with 0.01% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 81.91 million shares in the latest market snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics and AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $1.442 billion revenue and $107.6 million net income, cross-validated against StockAnalysis within 0.1% | AAON 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment sales | AAON Oklahoma $801.2 million, AAON Coil Products $325.4 million, and BASX $315.5 million | AAON 2025 Form 10-K segment table | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $496.9 million sales, $39.8 million net income, $0.48 diluted EPS, and 54.3% sales growth | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and investor release | July 12, 2026 |
| Backlog and 2026 outlook | $2.129 billion backlog at March 31, 2026, up 107.4% year over year; 2026 revenue growth outlook 40% to 45% and gross margin outlook about 27% to 28% | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and investor release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital spending | FY2025 operating cash flow about $0.5 million, capital expenditures $190.6 million, and StockAnalysis free cash flow negative $190.0 million | AAON 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and leverage | March 31, 2026 cash and cash equivalents $13 thousand, long-term debt $425.2 million, and leverage ratio 1.71 | AAON Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical indicators | TTM PE 80.39x, forward PE 47.27x, 50-day average $126.07, 200-day average $100.19, RSI 41.72, beta 1.41 | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
This AAON AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data and stated assumptions as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, backlog conversion, data center demand, costs, rates, competition, or market sentiment change.
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