Is TOST a buy according to AI stock analysis?

TOST is not an automatic buy according to AI stock analysis. Toast has profitable growth, net cash, and a restaurant-specific platform, but the current valuation still requires continued execution on locations, recurring gross profit, and cash flow. Use the scenario ranges and fresh filings as research inputs, not a personal recommendation.

What is the TOST AI stock forecast?

The TOST AI stock forecast is a scenario range rather than a precise target. A three-year model using $0.67 TTM EPS produced roughly $38 to $42 in a bullish case, $23 to $28 in a base case, and $12 to $16 in a bearish case. These outcomes depend on earnings growth and the market multiple, both of which can change.

What technical levels matter for TOST?

The technical levels that matter for TOST are $25.90 to $26.00 as first support and $30.85 to $31.00 as first resistance in the July 2026 snapshot. The support area matches the reported 50-day moving average, while resistance matches the reported 200-day moving average. Verify both with a live chart.

Can AI predict TOST stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize reported data, test assumptions, and identify scenarios, but it cannot know future restaurant demand, competitive actions, market multiples, or investor behavior.

How should I use this TOST AI trading strategy?

Use this TOST AI trading strategy as a rules-based planning framework. Define a position size and invalidation level first, confirm the moving averages and volume in a live chart, then compare price action with Toast earnings, locations, GPV, recurring gross profit, and free cash flow.

What is Toast Inc. business model?

Toast Inc. makes money from restaurant point of sale software, payment processing, hardware, and services that support ordering, labor, payroll, marketing, and guest engagement. Its economics improve when restaurants adopt more products and process more payments on the platform.

Toast, Inc. research snapshot

TOST AI Stock Analysis

TOST AI stock analysis currently views Toast, Inc. as a restaurant operating platform that combines point of sale software, payments, hardware, and workflow tools. The business is growing and profitable, but the investment case depends on durable location growth, recurring gross profit, and restaurant spending through the cycle. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified closing price was $28.85 and market capitalization was about $16.72 billion. This is informational research, not investment advice.

Current price

$28.85

Market cap

$16.72 billion

AI score

68 / 100

Rating

Profitable restaurant platform with execution and valuation risk

Trend status

Above 50-day average, below 200-day average

Data cutoff (updated weekly)

July 11, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. Toast has SEC filings, quarterly operating metrics, investor materials, broad market coverage, and liquid market data.
bias Check: The main AI research risk is mistaking fast location growth and a large payment volume for a permanent moat. This page separates reported operating results from assumptions about restaurant demand, pricing power, and future multiples.
ai Confidence: High for reported revenue, net income, cash, operating metrics, share count, and quote math. Medium for future returns because restaurant demand, competition, and valuation can change quickly.
investment Certainty: Medium-low. Toast has improving profitability and net cash, but a position still requires fresh earnings, chart data, and independent work on customer retention and competitive economics.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	Toast sells an integrated operating system to restaurants and retail businesses, monetizing software, payment processing, hardware, and adjacent services as locations use more of the platform.	Medium-high
Moat	Restaurant-specific workflows, embedded payments, implementation, data, and product breadth create switching friction, but Square, Clover, Lightspeed, and new vertical competitors limit pricing power.	Medium
Management	CEO Aman Narang is executing on location growth, margin expansion, AI features, and repurchases. The test is whether capital allocation remains disciplined while Toast expands beyond its core.	Medium-high
Financial trend	FY2025 revenue was $6.153 billion and net income was $342 million. Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.630 billion, net income was $126 million, and free cash flow was $115 million.	High
Valuation	At $28.85, exact calculations imply about 43.1x trailing EPS, 26.7x trailing free cash flow per share, and 2.6x revenue per share using available TTM inputs.	Medium
Technical trend	The latest snapshot is above the 50-day moving average of $25.90 but below the 200-day moving average of $30.85, so recovery momentum still needs long-term confirmation.	Medium
Risk level	Risk is medium-high because restaurant closures, weaker same-store sales, payment take-rate pressure, hardware costs, competition, and stock-based compensation can all affect returns.	High
AI confidence	Public information supports a high-confidence description of the business and current financial facts, not a high-confidence forecast of the share price.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Investment certainty is medium-low because the margin of safety depends on execution through a cyclical restaurant environment and on multiple support.	Medium-low

TOST AI stock forecast

TOST AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The TOST AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario framework, not a point prediction. financial_rigor.py applied a $0.67 TTM EPS input to 25%, 15%, and 5% annual EPS growth assumptions with 32x, 25x, and 18x terminal P/E multiples. The outputs were about $41.90 bullish, $25.50 base, and $14.00 bearish before dividends.

Bullish case

$38 to $42

More likely if location additions, GPV, recurring gross profit, and adjusted EBITDA keep compounding near management targets while customer retention and payment economics remain stable.

Base case

$23 to $28

More likely if Toast grows earnings at a solid rate but investors assign a lower multiple as restaurant spending and payment take-rate expectations normalize.

Bearish case

$12 to $16

More likely if restaurant closures or same-store sales weaken, competitors compress economics, hardware costs rise, or profit growth misses the assumptions embedded in the share price.

TOST AI technical analysis

TOST AI Technical Analysis

TOST AI technical analysis uses the latest verified $28.85 close, a $25.90 50-day moving average, a $30.85 200-day moving average, an RSI of 65.01, and 20-day average volume of about 14.19 million shares. These inputs were last checked July 9, 2026 and should be refreshed in a live chart before trading.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$28.85	Latest verified close used for this static page, as available by the July 11, 2026 cutoff.
Near support	$25.90 to $26.00	The 50-day moving average area is a practical first support zone, not a guaranteed floor.
Deeper support	$24.00 to $25.00	A lower planning zone that needs confirmation from live price structure and volume.
Near resistance	$30.85 to $31.00	The 200-day moving average is the key long-term trend confirmation area in the latest snapshot.
50-day moving average	$25.90	StockAnalysis snapshot last checked July 9, 2026. Confirm with a live chart before acting.
200-day moving average	$30.85	StockAnalysis snapshot last checked July 9, 2026. A sustained reclaim would improve the longer-term setup.
Momentum	RSI 65.01	Momentum is constructive but not proof of a breakout. Pair it with price and volume confirmation.
Volume	14.19 million 20-day average	Breakouts or support failures are more useful when volume is meaningfully above the recent average.
Volatility	Beta 1.74	The reported beta is above the market average, so risk controls need room for larger price swings.
Invalidation	Close below $25.90	A sustained close below the first support zone weakens a short-term recovery framework.

TOST AI trading strategy

TOST AI Trading Strategy Framework

The TOST AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It joins chart levels with operating evidence such as locations, GPV, recurring gross profit, free cash flow, and restaurant demand.

Trend-following setup

Watch for TOST to hold $25.90 to $26.00 and reclaim $30.85 to $31.00 with above-average volume. Confirm the move with the next earnings report and continued location and recurring gross profit growth.

Define risk before entry. A failed reclaim of resistance or a sustained close below $25.90 invalidates the short-term framework.

Mean-reversion setup

If TOST reaches $24 to $25 without a fundamental break, compare stabilization with GPV per location, net location additions, restaurant spending, free cash flow, and competitive pricing evidence.

Do not average down merely because price falls. Reassess the thesis if support fails with weaker operating metrics or a restaurant demand slowdown.

Fundamental monitor

Track total locations, GPV, ARR, subscription and financial technology gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, repurchases, take rate, stock-based compensation, and new-market execution.

Lower confidence when the stock moves on AI narratives or multiple expansion without matching recurring gross profit and cash-flow evidence.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Toast helps restaurants run daily operations and take payments. Customers pay because an integrated point of sale, ordering, labor, payroll, marketing, hardware, and payment stack can reduce workflow friction and replace disconnected vendors.

Moat

The moat is restaurant specialization plus switching friction. Once a location uses Toast hardware, payments, menus, staff workflows, and integrations, replacing the system can be disruptive. The moat is not absolute because Square, Clover, Lightspeed, Shift4, and niche tools can compete on price, hardware, or features.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if restaurants close or cut technology spending, payment economics compress, rivals improve restaurant workflows, expansion distracts management, or stock-based compensation and acquisition costs absorb the cash generation that investors expect.

Management

Aman Narang and the leadership team are being tested on the balance between growth investment, margin expansion, AI product delivery, and repurchases. Repurchasing 14 million shares for $378 million year-to-date through May 6, 2026 shows an active capital-allocation choice, which should be judged against future cash generation and dilution.

Industry trend

Restaurants continue to digitize payments, ordering, loyalty, labor, and guest engagement. This is a durable operating trend, but it does not remove the restaurant industry cycle or the tendency for payment and software competitors to chase attractive merchant economics.

Valuation and margin of safety

At about $16.72 billion of market value, Toast is valued as a profitable growth platform. The margin of safety comes from execution on recurring gross profit and free cash flow, not from a low trailing earnings multiple. The base three-year scenario output of about $25.50 is below the current reference price, which makes assumption discipline important.

Source-backed data

TOST Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
TOST price	$28.85 close on July 9, 2026	StockAnalysis market-cap page	July 11, 2026
Market capitalization and shares	$16.72 billion, verified as $28.85 x 579.70 million shares with 0.03% variance	StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification	July 11, 2026
FY2025 revenue	$6.153 billion	Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and Toast FY2025 Form 10-K cross-validated	July 11, 2026
FY2025 net income	$342 million	Macrotrends, StockAnalysis, and Toast FY2025 Form 10-K cross-validated	July 11, 2026
Q1 2026 operating results	$1.630 billion revenue, $126 million net income, and $115 million free cash flow	Toast Q1 2026 results	July 11, 2026
Q1 2026 cash and marketable securities	$1.770 billion, consisting of $1.098 billion cash and $672 million marketable securities	Toast Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis cross-validated	July 11, 2026
Q1 2026 operating scale	171,000 locations, $51.3 billion GPV, and $2.2 billion ARR	Toast Q1 2026 results	July 11, 2026
Technical snapshot	50-day MA $25.90, 200-day MA $30.85, RSI 65.01, beta 1.74	StockAnalysis statistics	July 11, 2026

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This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecasts are scenario estimates based on available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be refreshed with current filings and market data before making an investment decision.