Bullish case
$285.00 to $321.20
More likely if fiscal 2026 EPS lands near or above the $7.50 to $7.74 guidance range, comps stay above plan, store openings remain productive, buybacks continue, and ROST retakes the $242.81 high with volume.
Ross Stores, Inc. research snapshot
ROST AI Stock Analysis
ROST AI stock analysis currently reads Ross Stores as a high-quality off-price retailer with strong fiscal 2026 momentum, a value-led customer proposition, solid cash generation, and a valuation that already prices meaningful execution. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ROST last closed at $214.67, market capitalization was about $68.86 billion using 320.78 million shares, and first-quarter fiscal 2026 sales rose 21% to $6.01 billion. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$214.67
Market cap
$68.86 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality off-price retailer with strong execution and valuation risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with a short-term pullback from the June 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. ROST has current SEC filings, company earnings releases, investor relations data, third-party financial databases, liquid trading data, and broad sell-side and financial media coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is recency anchoring after a very strong first quarter and consensus enthusiasm for off-price retail. The countercheck is whether traffic strength, merchandise availability, tariff pressure, and valuation can all stay favorable at the same time.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. Reported financials, market-cap math, and trend data are well supported, but investment certainty is lower because the stock trades near a high earnings multiple and depends on continued traffic growth, inventory access, and disciplined store expansion.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ross Stores runs an off-price retail model through Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS, selling branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods at value prices. The model benefits when consumers hunt for bargains. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, vendor relationships, buying discipline, store density, distribution infrastructure, and customer habit. It is not a patent or network-effect moat, so execution quality matters. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Conroy began as CEO in fiscal 2025 and inherited a proven off-price system. Early fiscal 2026 execution is strong, while the shorter CEO tenure keeps management certainty below legacy operators with longer records at ROST. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales reached $22.75 billion, net income was $2.15 billion, fiscal 2025 EPS was $6.61, and Q1 fiscal 2026 sales rose 21% with diluted EPS of $2.02. | High |
| Valuation | At $214.67 and $7.18 TTM EPS, the verified P/E is 29.90x. The multiple requires sustained mid-to-high single digit growth, buybacks, and margin resilience. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The stock remains well above the 200-day moving average in one public technical snapshot but has pulled back from the $242.81 52-week high reached in June 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because tariffs, freight, wage pressure, fashion misses, weak discretionary spending, store rollout execution, and multiple compression can all reduce returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, cash, share count, market cap, and valuation math. Lower confidence for traffic durability, future merchandise availability, and where the market will place the earnings multiple. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ROST is a quality compounder candidate, but the current price leaves less margin of safety if the Q1 acceleration fades or the retail multiple normalizes. | Medium |
ROST AI stock forecast
ROST AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ROST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $214.67 close. The bullish case requires continued traffic gains, clean merchandise execution, EPS growth near or above guidance, and a premium retail multiple. The base case assumes Ross keeps growing but the multiple stays close to current expectations. The bearish case assumes the market cuts the multiple because tariffs, consumer pressure, or slower comps weaken the story.
Base case
$225.00 to $242.70
More likely if EPS compounds around a high-single-digit rate, management keeps margins stable, traffic remains positive, and the market values ROST near a mid-20s earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$152.40 to $185.00
More likely if Q1 strength proves temporary, tariff or wage costs pressure margins, customer traffic slows, inventory quality weakens, or the stock loses support near key moving-average zones.
ROST AI technical analysis
ROST AI Technical Analysis
ROST AI technical analysis starts from the $214.67 July 7, 2026 close and public technical snapshots available near the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, moving averages, volume, and RSI should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $214.67 | MarketWatch reported the July 7, 2026 close at $214.67, which is the quote used for this page. |
| Near support | $212.70 to $214.67 | Investing.com showed a 50-day moving average near $212.70, placing the latest close close to a short-term support test. |
| Deeper support | $194.85 to $188.21 | Barchart showed a 200-day moving average near $194.85, while an earlier ChartMill support snapshot highlighted $188.21. A break below this zone would weaken the long-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $225.07 to $242.81 | Barchart showed a 20-day moving average near $225.07, and MarketWatch reported the 52-week high at $242.81. |
| 50-day moving average | $212.70 to $224.57 | Public sources differed, with Investing.com near $212.70 and Barchart near $224.57. The gap makes live chart confirmation important. |
| 200-day moving average | $194.85 to $227.19 | Barchart and Investing.com differed materially on the 200-day average, so the conservative read is that trend confirmation should use the trader's live chart source. |
| Momentum | Positive long-term, cooling short-term | ROST remained far above its 52-week low but was about 11.6% below the June 2026 high, suggesting a pullback inside a strong one-year trend. |
| Volume | 2.8 million shares versus about 3.2 million 50-day average | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume slightly below the 50-day average, so a fresh breakout would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Moderate retail-equity volatility | The 52-week range of $126.32 to $242.81 shows meaningful drawdown risk even for a profitable, established retailer. |
| Invalidation | Close below $194.85 to $188.21 | A decisive close below the 200-day or deeper support zone would invalidate a simple trend-following setup and require a thesis review. |
ROST AI trading strategy
ROST AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ROST AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an off-price retail compounder trading at a premium multiple. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should pair live chart confirmation with position sizing, stop rules, and updated earnings data.
Trend-following setup
Wait for ROST to reclaim the $225 to $243 resistance area with improving volume and evidence that fiscal 2026 guidance remains credible. Confirmation is stronger if comps, traffic, and margin commentary stay positive.
A failed breakout or a close below the 50-day and 200-day confirmation zone should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If ROST pulls back toward the $195 to $213 support area without a new operating thesis break, compare the entry with EPS guidance, same-store sales, inventory quality, tariff commentary, and buyback pace.
Do not average down unless the maximum loss, invalidation level, and estimate revision risk are defined before entry.
Fundamental monitor
Track traffic, comparable sales, gross margin, merchandise availability, packaway inventory, store openings, capital expenditures, buybacks, tariff exposure, and TJX or Dollar Tree read-throughs.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes mainly from multiple expansion while comps slow, margins flatten, or management language turns more cautious.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Customers pay Ross Stores for a treasure-hunt retail experience: branded and designer merchandise at value prices, refreshed assortments, convenient stores, and a perception of savings versus full-price retail.
Moat
The moat is strongest in scale purchasing, vendor access, off-price buying discipline, distribution, real estate, and customer habit. It is weaker in switching costs because shoppers can move between ROST, TJX, Burlington, Walmart, Target, and online marketplaces.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the company loses merchandise quality, overexpands stores, misreads fashion demand, faces sustained tariff and wage pressure, or sees its premium multiple compress after a strong earnings cycle.
Management
Jim Conroy brought outside retail CEO experience and early fiscal 2026 execution has been strong. Capital allocation remains shareholder friendly through buybacks and dividends, but CEO tenure at Ross is still short.
Industry trend
Off-price retail benefits from value-seeking behavior, brand overstock, and store-based discovery, but discretionary apparel remains cyclical and exposed to freight, labor, tariffs, and consumer confidence.
Valuation and margin of safety
A verified 29.90x P/E, roughly 10.93x book value, and a three-scenario base value near $242.70 leave only moderate margin of safety. The current price assumes ROST keeps compounding earnings and maintains a premium off-price retail multiple.
Source-backed data
ROST Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROST price | $214.67 close on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch ROST quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $68.86 billion, verified as $214.67 x 320.78 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 320,781,076 shares outstanding on May 15, 2026 | Ross Stores Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 sales | $6.010 billion in the 10-Q, cross-checked against $6.0 billion in the earnings release | Ross Stores Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 net earnings | $649.964 million in the 10-Q, cross-checked against $650 million in the earnings release | Ross Stores Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales and EPS | $22.751 billion sales and $6.61 diluted EPS | Ross Stores fiscal 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $4.131 billion cash and cash equivalents; $1.018 billion long-term debt plus $241 million current debt in Q1 fiscal 2026 | Ross Stores Q1 fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance | $7.50 to $7.74 full-year EPS guidance after Q1 fiscal 2026 | Ross Stores Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Store base | 2,267 stores at fiscal 2025 year end, with about 110 new stores planned for 2026 | Ross Stores fiscal 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 52-week range of $126.32 to $242.81; Barchart 50-day moving average near $224.57 and 200-day near $194.85 | MarketWatch and Barchart technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This ROST AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available near the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, and risk factors before making decisions.