Ross Stores, Inc. research snapshot
ROST AI stock analysis reads Ross Stores as a high-quality off-price retailer that just delivered a very strong first quarter, raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, and now trades near a record high at a premium valuation. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ROST closed at $251.07 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $80.54 billion using 320.78 million shares, and first quarter fiscal 2026 sales rose 21% to $6.0 billion with comparable sales up 17%. Management now guides fiscal 2026 earnings per share to $7.50 to $7.74, and the market assigns the stock a trailing P/E near 35x. This page uses scenario analysis, not a certain stock price prediction, and it is an informational tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$251.07
Market cap
$80.54 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality off-price retailer with strong execution, now priced for continued momentum
Trend status
Strong uptrend near a 52-week high, with momentum and valuation stretched
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ross Stores runs an off-price retail model through Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS, selling branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods at value prices. First quarter fiscal 2026 sales rose 21% with comparable sales up 17%, and operating margin reached 13.4%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale purchasing, vendor relationships, buying discipline, store density, distribution infrastructure, and customer habit. It is not a patent or network-effect moat, so execution quality and inventory access matter. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Conroy, who took over in fiscal 2025, has led strong early fiscal 2026 execution, and the leadership team including COO Michael Hartshorn and CFO William Sheehan is experienced. The shorter CEO tenure keeps management certainty below legacy operators with longer records at ROST. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2025 sales reached $22.75 billion with earnings per share of $6.61, and first quarter fiscal 2026 delivered $6.0 billion in sales, net income of $650 million, and earnings per share of $2.02, up 37%. | High |
| Valuation | At $251.07 and $7.16 trailing EPS, the verified trailing P/E is 35.06x with a forward P/E near 31.84x. The multiple requires sustained mid-to-high single digit growth, buybacks, and margin resilience. | High for math, medium for forward value |
| Technical trend | The stock sits about 1.7% below the $255.30 52-week high, well above the 200-day moving average near $202.44, with RSI near 69.7 approaching overbought territory and 14-day ADX near 26 confirming an uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Tariffs, freight and wage pressure, fashion misses, weaker discretionary spending, tax refund tailwinds fading, store rollout execution, and multiple compression can all reduce returns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, cash, share count, market cap, guidance, and valuation math. Lower confidence for traffic durability, future merchandise availability, and where the market will place the earnings multiple after an 81% run. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ROST is a quality compounder candidate, but the current price leaves less margin of safety if the first quarter acceleration fades or the retail multiple normalizes. | Medium |
ROST AI stock forecast
The ROST AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $251.07 close. The bullish case requires continued traffic gains, clean merchandise execution, EPS growth near or above the raised guidance, and a premium retail multiple holding. The base case assumes Ross keeps growing and the multiple stays close to current expectations. The bearish case assumes the market cuts the multiple because tariffs, consumer pressure, or slower comps weaken the story.
$285.00 to $320.00
More likely if fiscal 2026 EPS lands near or above the $7.50 to $7.74 guidance range, comps stay above plan, store openings remain productive, buybacks continue, and ROST breaks and holds above the $255.30 high with volume.
$235.00 to $270.00
More likely if EPS compounds around a high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate, management keeps margins stable, traffic stays positive, and the market values ROST near a 30x to 32x forward multiple consistent with the consensus target of $256.
$175.00 to $215.00
More likely if the first quarter strength proves temporary, tariffs or wage costs pressure margins, customer traffic slows as tax refund effects fade, inventory quality weakens, or the stock loses the 20-day and 50-day moving-average zone near $229 to $233.
ROST AI technical analysis
ROST AI technical analysis starts from the $251.07 July 31, 2026 close and public technical snapshots available near the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The stock is in a strong uptrend just below its 52-week high, above all major moving averages, but momentum indicators such as RSI near 69.7 and stochastic above 90 warn that the move is extended. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live price, moving averages, volume, and RSI should be confirmed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $251.07 | StockAnalysis.com reported the July 31, 2026 close at $251.07, up 81.30% over the past 52 weeks. |
| Near resistance | $255.30 | The 52-week high of $255.30 is the first overhead level; a break above it with volume would extend the uptrend. |
| Near support | $232.53 to $229.34 | Barchart shows the 20-day moving average near $232.53 and the 50-day near $229.34, forming the first support cluster below price. |
| Deeper support | $224.11 to $202.44 | Barchart shows the 100-day moving average near $224.11 and the 200-day near $202.44. A break below this zone would weaken the long-term setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 69.7, stochastic above 90 | 14-day RSI near 69.67 is approaching overbought, and 14-day stochastic %K near 90.78 signals an extended short-term move inside a confirmed uptrend with 14-day ADX near 25.99. |
| Volume | About 2.32 million shares 20-day average | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both list 20-day average volume near 2.32 million shares on July 31, 2026, useful for judging a breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | ATR near 2.3% | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $5.72, or about 2.28% of price, so position sizing should allow for swings around the August 20, 2026 earnings report. |
| Trend confirmation | ADX 26, +DI 35.7 vs -DI 14.2 | Barchart shows 14-day ADX near 25.99 with positive directional movement clearly dominant, which confirms an established uptrend while it lasts. |
| 52-week range | $134.37 to $255.30 | StockAnalysis.com lists a 52-week range of $134.37 to $255.30, showing the stock nearly doubled off the low. |
| Invalidation | Close below $229.34 to $202.44 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $229.34 would signal short-term weakness, while a close below the 200-day near $202.44 would invalidate the long-term trend-following setup. |
ROST AI trading strategy
The ROST AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for an off-price retail compounder trading at a premium valuation near a record high. It is not personalized advice. Any setup should pair live chart confirmation with position sizing, stop rules, and updated earnings data, with the August 20, 2026 report as the near-term event.
Wait for ROST to break and hold above the $255.30 high with above-average volume, or for a pullback to the $229 to $233 moving-average zone that stabilizes while fiscal 2026 guidance remains credible.
A failed breakout or a close below the 50-day moving average near $229 should invalidate the setup, and a close below the 200-day near $202 would end the long-term trend case.
If ROST pulls back toward the $224 to $233 moving-average support area without a new operating thesis break, compare the entry with EPS guidance, comparable sales, inventory quality, tariff commentary, and buyback pace.
Do not average down unless the maximum loss, invalidation level, and estimate revision risk are defined before entry, because a stretched valuation leaves little room for error.
Track traffic, comparable sales, gross margin, merchandise availability, packaway inventory, store openings, capital expenditures, buybacks, dividend growth, tariff exposure, and TJX or Dollar General read-throughs.
Reduce confidence when price strength comes mainly from multiple expansion while comps slow, margins flatten, or management language turns more cautious, especially after an 81% one-year gain.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ross Stores for a treasure-hunt retail experience: branded and designer merchandise at value prices, refreshed assortments, convenient stores, and a perception of savings versus full-price retail, which drove 21% first quarter fiscal 2026 sales growth.
The moat is strongest in scale purchasing, vendor access, off-price buying discipline, distribution, real estate, and customer habit. It is weaker in switching costs because shoppers can move between ROST, TJX, Burlington, Walmart, Target, and online marketplaces.
The thesis can fail if the company loses merchandise quality, overexpands stores, misreads fashion demand, faces sustained tariff and wage pressure, sees tax refund tailwinds fade, or has its premium multiple compress after a very strong earnings cycle.
Jim Conroy brought outside retail CEO experience and early fiscal 2026 execution has been strong, with management raising the full-year outlook and repurchasing 1.5 million shares for $319 million in the first quarter. Capital allocation remains shareholder friendly, but CEO tenure at Ross is still short.
Off-price retail benefits from value-seeking behavior, brand overstock, and store-based discovery, and it continues to take share in a cautious consumer environment. The category remains exposed to freight, labor, tariffs, consumer confidence, and growing online discount competition.
A verified 35.06x trailing P/E, roughly 12.78x book value, and about 30.60x trailing free cash flow leave only moderate margin of safety. The current price assumes ROST keeps compounding earnings and maintains a premium off-price retail multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROST price | $251.07 close on July 31, 2026, up 81.30% over 52 weeks | StockAnalysis.com ROST quote snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $80.54 billion, verified as $251.07 x 320.78 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 320,781,076 shares outstanding on May 15, 2026, down about 1.92% year over year | Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| First quarter fiscal 2026 sales | $6.010 billion in the 10-Q, cross-checked against $6.0 billion in the earnings release, up 21% with comparable sales up 17% | Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| First quarter fiscal 2026 earnings | Net income of $650 million versus $479 million, with earnings per share of $2.02 up 37%, and operating margin of 13.4% above the 11.8% to 12.1% plan | Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2025 sales and EPS | $22.751 billion sales and $6.61 diluted EPS for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 | Ross Stores fiscal 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $4.131 billion cash and cash equivalents, $4.723 billion total debt, and net cash of negative $592.17 million as of May 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Comparable sales growth of 6% to 7% and earnings per share of $7.50 to $7.74, up 13% to 17%, with second quarter EPS of $1.85 to $1.93 | Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Store base | 2,282 stores at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2026, including 1,917 Ross Dress for Less and 365 dd's DISCOUNTS, with 47 new stores opened during June and July 2026 | Ross Stores first quarter fiscal 2026 Form 10-Q and July 20, 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E of 35.06, forward P/E of 31.84, price to sales of 3.39, price to book of 12.78, price to free cash flow of 30.60, EV/EBITDA of 23.65 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Margins and returns | Operating margin of 12.22%, profit margin of 9.74%, return on equity of 38.98%, and return on invested capital of 32.31% on a trailing twelve month basis | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash flow | Operating cash flow of $3.453 billion, capital expenditures of $820.85 million, and free cash flow of $2.632 billion over trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and buybacks | Annual dividend of $1.78 raised about 10% with a 0.71% yield and a 24.86% payout ratio, plus a 1.92% buyback yield; first quarter repurchases of 1.5 million shares for $319 million under the $2.55 billion authorization | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Ross Stores earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $256.00 across 19 analysts, low $176, high $290, and median $262, against the $251.07 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | Fiscal 2026 revenue of $25.16 billion with EPS of $7.79, and fiscal 2027 revenue of $26.76 billion with EPS of $8.56 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $232.53, 50-day near $229.34, 100-day near $224.11, 200-day near $202.44, 14-day RSI near 69.67, 14-day ADX near 25.99 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 10.27 million shares short, 3.20% of shares outstanding, about 3.15 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 20, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis.com earnings calendar | August 2, 2026 |
This ROST AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available near the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify live prices, filings, and risk factors before making decisions.
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