Dollar General Corporation research snapshot
DG AI stock analysis currently reads Dollar General Corporation as a large, convenient, value-focused retailer with more than 21,000 stores, a defensive consumables mix, improving same-store sales, and renewed fiscal 2026 EPS guidance. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, DG traded near $127.05 with a verified market capitalization near $28.03 billion, about 17.97x trailing earnings, 16.83x forward earnings, and 12.73x free cash flow per share. The DG AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside depends on sustained traffic, shrink improvement, store remodel productivity, and EPS delivery, while downside appears if low-income consumers weaken, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, or the CEO transition slows execution.
Current price
$127.05
Market cap
$28.03 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Value retail recovery improving with technical confirmation and stronger cash flow, but still exposed to low-income consumer stress and the January 2027 CEO transition
Trend status
Constructive technical trend, with price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and RSI near 60
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dollar General sells everyday essentials, consumables, seasonal goods, home products, and apparel through a dense small-box footprint built around value and convenience. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from store density, rural proximity, purchasing scale, private brands, convenience, and habit. It is weaker than a software or payments moat because price competition and execution matter every day. | Medium |
| Management | Todd Vasos has returned the company to steadier execution, but Jerry JJ Fleeman is scheduled to become CEO on January 1, 2027, making transition quality a key monitoring item. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 5.2% to $42.7 billion and net income rose about 34% to $1.5 billion. Q1 2026 net sales rose 3.4% to $10.8 billion, same-store sales rose 2.0%, and diluted EPS rose 12.4% to $2.00. | High |
| Valuation | At $127.05, DG screens at roughly 17.97x trailing EPS, 16.83x forward EPS, 3.17x book value, 0.65x sales, and 12.73x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | Price closed at $127.05 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $115.22 and the 200-day moving average near $123.27, with RSI near 59.95 and a 52-week range of $95.11 to $158.23. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are weaker low-income spending, lower SNAP or other assistance, rising gas prices, tariffs, wage pressure, rent and utility costs, shrink, inventory mistakes, price competition, debt, and the CEO transition. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data mostly agree. Forecast confidence is lower because the stock is sensitive to margins, consumer stress, and valuation multiple shifts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DG offers a plausible recovery framework, but the page does not treat the stock as a certain buy because the margin of safety depends on fiscal 2026 execution and the CEO handoff. | Medium |
DG AI stock forecast
The DG AI stock forecast uses the $127.05 price reference and the $7.325 midpoint of Dollar General fiscal 2026 EPS guidance. A three-year framework produced a bullish area near $180, a base area near $136, and a bearish area near $80 before dividends. The range is wide because DG combines defensive demand with thin retail margins and execution sensitivity. Sell-side targets for 31 analysts average $130.90, with a low of $90 and a high of $175.
$160 to $185
More likely if same-store sales stay positive, customer traffic improves, shrink and damages keep falling, store remodels lift productivity, tariffs are managed, EPS compounds near high single digits, and investors pay around 19x earnings.
$125 to $145
More likely if EPS compounds near mid single digits, fiscal 2026 guidance is met, free cash flow remains above dividend needs, and DG trades near a mid-teens retail multiple.
$75 to $90
More likely if low-income consumer pressure worsens, traffic softens, markdowns and tariffs pressure gross margin, wage and rent costs rise, or investors re-rate DG toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
DG AI technical analysis
DG AI technical analysis turned constructive as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $127.05 on July 31, 2026, up from $115.43 on July 7 and from a June low near $103.52, now trading above the 50-day moving average near $115.22 and the 200-day moving average near $123.27. RSI sits near 59.95, with a 52-week range of $95.11 to $158.23.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $127.05 | Close on July 31, 2026, used as the quote reference for market-cap and valuation checks at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $123 to $125 | This band brackets the 200-day moving average near $123.27 and the July 27 to July 28 consolidation zone near $123 to $126. |
| Lower support | $115 to $118 | This area includes the 50-day moving average near $115.22 and the late July breakout levels, giving a first mean-reversion reference. |
| Resistance | $128 to $130 | The July 29 close near $128.68 and the July 29 intraday high near $129.13 mark the first nearby overhead zone. |
| Major resistance | $150 to $158 | The February high near $158.23 remains the major overhead reference for any durable recovery. |
| Moving averages | Price above 50-day ($115.22) and 200-day ($123.27) moving averages | Holding above both averages keeps the trend-following setup valid after the June to July rebound. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59.95 | RSI above 50 supports momentum, though the reading is not yet overbought, so follow-through still needs confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 2.33 million shares | The June 2 earnings-day volume spike near 9 million and the July 16 volume near 4.85 million show real participation in the rebound. |
| Volatility | 52-week range of $95.11 to $158.23, beta near 0.25 | Low beta reflects a defensive profile, but the wide 52-week range shows how sensitive the stock remains to margins and consumer trends. |
| Invalidation | Close below $115, then below $110 | A break below the 50-day moving average area would weaken the recovery setup and shift attention to whether guidance remains credible. |
DG AI trading strategy
The DG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with same-store sales, traffic, gross margin, shrink, tariff exposure, store remodel output, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and the January 2027 CEO transition.
Watch for DG to reclaim and hold $128 to $130 on stronger volume while Q2 commentary confirms traffic growth, margin stability, and no cut to fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $115 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management flags weaker consumer spending or higher tariff costs.
If DG pulls back toward $115 to $118 without new margin damage, compare the lower price with the $7.20 to $7.45 fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range and free cash flow coverage.
Do not treat a lower multiple as automatically cheap if same-store sales, shrink, inventory, or wage cost trends deteriorate.
Track same-store sales, traffic versus ticket, consumables mix, gross margin, SG&A rate, shrink, markdowns, inventory per store, capex, cash flow, dividend coverage, debt, and JJ Fleeman transition updates.
Position sizing should reflect that DG is a low-margin retailer with operating leverage in both directions.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dollar General for nearby access to essentials at low absolute prices. The business is less about luxury retail and more about convenience, trip frequency, price trust, and availability for budget-constrained households.
The moat is built from small-box proximity, rural density, purchasing scale, private brands, supply chain reach, and customer habit. It narrows when Walmart, Dollar Tree, online retailers, local grocers, or hard discounters can match price and convenience.
The thesis fails if the core customer weakens, gas prices or SNAP cuts reduce trips, tariffs force price increases, shrink returns, wage and rent inflation absorb gross-margin gains, remodels underperform, inventory turns slow, or the CEO handoff causes execution drift.
Todd Vasos returned as CEO in October 2023 and has focused on operational recovery. The next test is whether incoming CEO Jerry JJ Fleeman, a 35-year grocery industry veteran, can preserve discipline, store standards, customer value, and capital allocation after January 1, 2027.
Dollar General sits inside the long-running demand for value retail, convenience, consumables, private brands, and trade-down behavior. Management reported customer growth across income cohorts, with the largest increase from households earning more than $100,000, even as lower-income shoppers cut back on food and household purchases.
At $127.05, the market prices DG as a recovering retailer rather than a distressed one. Margin of safety is thinner than it was in July because the stock already re-rated toward 18x trailing earnings, so EPS delivery, traffic, and margin stability now carry more weight than the multiple itself.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DG quote reference | $127.05 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis DG quote and history | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $28.03 billion reported, $28.03 billion calculated from $127.05 x 220.59 million shares with 0.01% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 220.59 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis DG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $42.724 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis and Macrotrends with 0.00% variance | StockAnalysis DG financials and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $1.51 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis and Macrotrends with 0.07% variance | StockAnalysis DG financials and Macrotrends | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 results | $10.787 billion net sales, 2.0% same-store sales growth, $638.5 million operating profit, and $2.00 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis DG financials and PYMNTS Q1 earnings report | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Net sales growth of about 3.7% to 4.2%, same-store sales growth of about 2.2% to 2.7%, and diluted EPS of about $7.20 to $7.45 | Dollar General Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $1.353 billion cash and $15.798 billion total debt as of May 1, 2026, with a net cash position of negative $14.445 billion | StockAnalysis DG balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 17.97x trailing PE, 16.83x forward PE, 0.65x sales, 3.17x book value, and 12.73x free cash flow per share by tool check | StockAnalysis DG statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $130.90, a low of $90, a median of $126, and a high of $175 across 31 analysts | StockAnalysis DG forecast, S&P Global data | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Price above the 50-day moving average near $115.22 and the 200-day moving average near $123.27, with RSI near 59.95 | StockAnalysis DG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Store footprint | More than 21,000 stores, with 21,055 locations as of May 1, 2026 | StockAnalysis DG metrics and Dollar General Q1 2026 release | August 2, 2026 |
| Management transition | Jerry JJ Fleeman, a 35-year grocery industry veteran, named to succeed Todd Vasos as CEO effective January 1, 2027 | PYMNTS personnel report | August 2, 2026 |
This DG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Dollar General Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, consumer demand, margins, tariffs, interest rates, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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