Dollar General Corporation research snapshot
DG AI stock analysis currently reads Dollar General Corporation as a large, convenient, value-focused retailer with more than 21,000 stores, a defensive consumables mix, improving gross margin, and renewed fiscal 2026 EPS guidance. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, DG traded near $115.43 with a verified market capitalization near $25.46 billion, about 16.32x trailing earnings and 11.60x free cash flow per share. The DG AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside depends on sustained traffic, shrink improvement, store remodel productivity, and EPS delivery, while downside appears if low-income consumers weaken, tariffs or labor costs pressure margins, or the CEO transition slows execution.
Current price
$115.43
Market cap
$25.46 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Value retail recovery with useful cash flow, but still exposed to low-income consumer stress and execution risk
Trend status
Mixed technical trend, with price below the February high and daily indicators leaning sell
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dollar General sells everyday essentials, consumables, seasonal goods, home products, and apparel through a dense small-box footprint built around value and convenience. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from store density, rural proximity, purchasing scale, private brands, convenience, and habit. It is weaker than a software or payments moat because price competition and execution matter every day. | Medium |
| Management | Todd Vasos has returned the company to steadier execution, but JJ Fleeman is scheduled to become CEO on January 1, 2027, making transition quality a key monitoring item. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 5.2% to $42.7 billion and net income rose 34.4% to about $1.5 billion. Q1 2026 sales rose 3.4% to $10.8 billion and EPS rose 12.4% to $2.00. | High |
| Valuation | At $115.43, DG screens at roughly 16.32x trailing EPS, 15.31x forward EPS, 2.88x book value, 0.59x sales, and 11.60x free cash flow per share. | High |
| Technical trend | Daily technical data is not clean. Price sits below the $158.23 52-week high, Investing.com daily indicators lean sell, and the useful setup depends on reclaiming nearby resistance. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are weaker low-income spending, lower SNAP or other assistance, tariffs, wage pressure, rent and utility costs, shrink, inventory mistakes, price competition, debt, and transition risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data mostly agree. Forecast confidence is lower because the stock is sensitive to margins, consumer stress, and valuation multiple shifts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DG offers a plausible recovery framework, but the page does not treat the stock as a certain buy because the margin of safety depends on fiscal 2026 execution. | Medium |
DG AI stock forecast
The DG AI stock forecast uses the $115.43 price reference and the $7.325 midpoint of Dollar General fiscal 2026 EPS guidance. The audited three-year framework produced a bullish area near $166, a base area near $124, and a bearish area near $71 before dividends. The range is wide because DG combines defensive demand with thin retail margins and execution sensitivity.
$155 to $170
More likely if same-store sales stay positive, customer traffic improves, shrink and damages keep falling, Project Renovate and Project Elevate lift store productivity, tariffs are managed, and investors pay around 18x earnings.
$118 to $130
More likely if EPS compounds near the low-to-mid single digits, fiscal 2026 guidance is met, free cash flow remains above dividend needs, and DG trades near a mid-teens retail multiple.
$65 to $80
More likely if low-income consumer pressure worsens, traffic softens, markdowns and tariffs pressure gross margin, wage and rent costs rise, or investors re-rate DG toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
DG AI technical analysis
DG AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. Robinhood listed DG at $115.43 on July 7, 2026, while MarketWatch noted a July 6 close of $116.27, 26.52% below the February 26 high of $158.23. Investing.com daily technicals leaned sell, with RSI near 43.876 and moving-average signals showing more sells than buys.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $115.43 | Quote reference used for market-cap and valuation checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $115 to $116 | This band brackets the July 7 quote and the July 6 close. A failure here would show sellers still control the near-term range. |
| Lower support | $105 to $110 | This area captures the June post-earnings reset zone and gives a first mean-reversion reference if price loses current support. |
| Resistance | $118 to $123 | This band includes the July 2 close near $118.17 and the 100-day simple moving average reference around $123.03 from TipRanks snapshots. |
| Major resistance | $150 to $158 | The February high near $158.23 remains the major overhead reference for any durable recovery. |
| Moving averages | Mixed daily signals, with Investing.com showing 4 buy and 8 sell moving-average signals | The moving-average setup is not a clean trend-following signal, so confirmation matters more than a single level. |
| Momentum | RSI near 43.876 | RSI below 50 suggests soft momentum rather than an oversold capitulation signal. |
| Volume | Recent volume near 2.17 million versus 2.68 million average | Low-volume rebounds are less convincing. A reclaim of resistance needs stronger participation. |
| Volatility | 52-week high near $158.23 | The large distance from the high shows that earnings recovery has not yet restored investor confidence fully. |
| Invalidation | Close below $110, then below $105 | A break below these levels would weaken the recovery setup and shift attention to whether guidance remains credible. |
DG AI trading strategy
The DG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with same-store sales, traffic, gross margin, shrink, tariff exposure, store remodel output, free cash flow, dividend coverage, and CEO transition execution.
Watch for DG to reclaim $118 to $123 on stronger volume while Q2 commentary confirms traffic growth, margin stability, and no cut to fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $110 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management flags weaker consumer spending or higher tariff costs.
If DG pulls back toward $105 to $110 without new margin damage, compare the lower price with the $7.20 to $7.45 fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range and free cash flow coverage.
Do not treat a lower multiple as automatically cheap if same-store sales, shrink, inventory, or wage cost trends deteriorate.
Track same-store sales, traffic versus ticket, consumables mix, gross margin, SG&A rate, shrink, markdowns, inventory per store, capex, cash flow, dividend coverage, debt, and JJ Fleeman transition updates.
Position sizing should reflect that DG is a low-margin retailer with operating leverage in both directions.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dollar General for nearby access to essentials at low absolute prices. The business is less about luxury retail and more about convenience, trip frequency, price trust, and availability for budget-constrained households.
The moat is built from small-box proximity, rural density, purchasing scale, private brands, supply chain reach, and customer habit. It narrows when Walmart, Dollar Tree, online retailers, local grocers, or hard discounters can match price and convenience.
The thesis fails if the core customer weakens, tariffs force price increases, shrink returns, wage and rent inflation absorb gross-margin gains, remodels underperform, inventory turns slow, or the CEO handoff causes execution drift.
Todd Vasos returned as CEO in October 2023 and has focused on operational recovery. The next test is whether incoming CEO JJ Fleeman can preserve discipline, store standards, customer value, and capital allocation after January 1, 2027.
Dollar General sits inside the long-running demand for value retail, convenience, consumables, private brands, and trade-down behavior. The offset is that the same customer base is highly exposed to inflation, employment, fuel, housing, credit, and benefit policy changes.
At $115.43, the market prices DG as a recovering retailer rather than a distressed one. Margin of safety improves if EPS delivery remains credible and the stock stays near a low-to-mid teens multiple, but weak traffic or margin pressure can erase that support quickly.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DG quote reference | $115.43 on July 7, 2026 | Robinhood DG stock snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $25.46 billion reported, $25.46 billion calculated from $115.43 x 220.59 million shares with 0.01% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 220.59 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis DG statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $42.724 billion, cross-validated against Dollar General release, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance with 0.00% variance | Dollar General FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | About $1.5 billion in the official release and $1.512 billion in StockAnalysis, cross-validated with 0.40% variance | Dollar General FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 results | $10.8 billion net sales, 2.0% same-store sales growth, $638.5 million operating profit, and $2.00 diluted EPS | Dollar General Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Net sales growth of about 3.7% to 4.2%, same-store sales growth of about 2.2% to 2.7%, and diluted EPS of about $7.20 to $7.45 | Dollar General Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.353 billion as of May 1, 2026, cross-validated against Dollar General and StockAnalysis with 0.00% variance | Dollar General Q1 2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 16.32x trailing PE, 15.31x forward PE, 0.59x sales, 2.88x book value, and 11.60x free cash flow per share by tool check | StockAnalysis DG statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | Daily technicals leaned sell, with RSI near 43.876 and moving-average signals at 4 buy and 8 sell | Investing.com DG technical analysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Store footprint | 21,055 stores as of May 1, 2026 across Dollar General, DG Market, DGX, pOpshelf, and Mi Super Dollar General formats | Dollar General Q1 2026 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Management transition | Jerry W. JJ Fleeman Jr. appointed to succeed Todd Vasos as CEO effective January 1, 2027 | Dollar General CEO transition 8-K exhibit | July 8, 2026 |
This DG AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell Dollar General Corporation. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 8, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, consumer demand, margins, tariffs, interest rates, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
