Qualys, Inc. research snapshot
QLYS AI stock analysis currently reads Qualys as a profitable cloud security platform selling vulnerability management, cloud security (CNAPP), patch management, EDR, and compliance solutions on a unified SaaS platform. Q1 2026 revenue reached $175.64 million, GAAP net income reached $50.64 million, and the company generated about $237 million in levered free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. The caution is price discipline: at a $152.69 July 10 close and about $5.38 billion calculated equity value, the QLYS AI stock forecast trades at 27.5x trailing earnings and 22.7x trailing free cash flow. With the average analyst price target near $115, consensus sees the stock as fairly valued after its recent year-to-date surge. This is scenario analysis for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$152.69 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$5.38 billion calculated equity value
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-quality cloud security SaaS with strong FCF, niche leadership, and valuation above consensus target risk
Trend status
Strong technical uptrend with a recent surge from $74 low to $164 high over the past year, momentum extended near 52-week peak territory
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Qualys sells cloud-based cybersecurity and compliance solutions on a single SaaS platform, anchored by vulnerability management with expanding cloud security, patch, EDR, and compliance modules. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, vulnerability management brand, threat intelligence data, compliance workflow integration, and 10,300-plus customer relationships. It can narrow if Microsoft, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, or Tenable embed similar capability into broader platforms. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Sumedh Thakar has led the company since June 2021, previously served as CTO and CPO. The leadership team has a track record of steady SaaS execution with controlled opex growth, consistent FCF, and margin discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue grew 7% YoY to $175.64 million, GAAP net income was $50.64 million, operating margin was about 35%, and trailing 12-month levered FCF was about $237 million with a 34.6% FCF margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $152.69, financial_rigor.py calculated 27.5x trailing GAAP PE, 22.7x trailing levered FCF, 7.9x TTM revenue, and a forward PE near 20x based on consensus estimates. The stock trades well above the $115 consensus analyst target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | QLYS surged from a $74.51 52-week low to a $164.17 52-week high, then pulled back to the $152.69 close. The stock holds well above moving averages but near the top of the recent range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are slower revenue deceleration, competition from larger security platforms, limited TAM for pure-play VM, valuation re-rating if growth disappoints, and insider selling patterns. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high on reported financials but forward scenario confidence is medium because analyst estimates diverge widely. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | QLYS looks like a well-run SaaS business but not a high-conviction entry point here given the stretched valuation relative to consensus estimates and modest organic growth rate. | Low-medium |
QLYS AI stock forecast
The QLYS AI stock forecast uses the $152.69 July 10 close, TTM GAAP EPS of $5.56, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $112, a base area near $185, and a bullish area near $254 before buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes beyond the stated assumptions. The base case EPS of $7.40 and PE of 25x yield $185, but this is well above the $115 consensus analyst target. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.
$240 to $265
More likely if revenue re-accelerates above 15% through cloud security module adoption, FCF margin expands beyond 35%, the company executes a large strategic acquisition, or investors award a premium 30x forward PE on above-consensus EPS of $8.46.
$170 to $200
More likely if Qualys sustains 10% revenue growth, operating margins remain stable, the stock re-rates moderately toward 25x forward PE on EPS near $7.40, and the Scotiabank upgrade momentum draws incremental buyers.
$105 to $120
More likely if growth decelerates below 6%, Microsoft or CrowdStrike bundle VM features reduce Qualys wallet share, the stock re-rates to 18x forward PE, and the analyst consensus average of $115 proves to be the equilibrium level.
QLYS AI technical analysis
QLYS AI technical analysis shows a stock in a powerful uptrend that has become extended. The stock formed a 52-week low near $74.51 and rallied to a high of $164.17, a gain of about 120%, before settling at $152.69. July 10 closed down 4.2% from the prior day, suggesting a consolidation phase after the Scotiabank upgrade spike. Yahoo Finance and TradingView data as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $152.69 | July 10, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math. |
| 52-week high | $164.17 | Recent high set during the Scotiabank upgrade-driven surge. Acts as the immediate resistance reference. |
| Immediate support | $145 to $152 | The area between the July 10 close and the prior consolidation zone before the breakout. |
| Medium support | $130 to $140 | The breakout level from June 2026. Prior resistance turned support for pullbacks. |
| Major support | $100 to $110 | The trading range before the 2026 rally. Near the consensus analyst target zone and a natural re-test area. |
| Near resistance | $160 to $165 | The 52-week high zone. A clean break above $164.17 with volume would open the next leg higher. |
| Moving averages | 20-day near $138, 50-day near $112, 200-day near $97 | Price well above all major moving averages confirms the uptrend. The gap above the 50-day increases pullback risk. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended | The 40% one-month gain and proximity to the 52-week high suggest momentum is strong but a consolidation may be needed. |
| Volume | Event-sensitive | Spiked on the Scotiabank upgrade day. Watch for volume confirmation on any attempt to break $164. |
| Volatility | Mid-cap software volatility | QLYS can move sharply on earnings, analyst upgrades, cybersecurity sector rotation, and moderate-float dynamics. |
| Invalidation | Close below $130, then below $100 | A break below $130 would weaken the breakout. A close below $100 would challenge the entire 2026 uptrend. |
QLYS AI trading strategy
The QLYS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects Qualys revenue growth, FCF margin, cloud security module attach rates, competitive dynamics, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for QLYS to consolidate above the $145 to $152 support zone and stage a clean break above $164.17 on above-average volume while the next earnings report confirms stable or accelerating revenue growth, maintained operating margins, and steady FCF.
A failed breakout with a close back below $152 should reduce setup conviction, especially if guidance suggests growth deceleration or if competitive pressure from Microsoft or CrowdStrike intensifies.
If QLYS pulls back toward the $100 to $120 zone without a fundamental reset (no guidance cut, no competitive loss), compare the lower price with consensus EPS, FCF per share, and peer multiples among Tenable, Rapid7, and Varonis.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the company lowers guidance, insider selling accelerates, or cybersecurity spending shifts toward platform consolidation that bypasses pure-play VM vendors.
Track quarterly revenue growth rate (target above 8% YoY), GAAP operating margin, levered FCF conversion, dollar-based net retention rate, cloud security module adoption, large customer count, and total customer additions to 10,300-plus.
Position sizing should reflect that QLYS is a solid but slow-growth cybersecurity SaaS with a premium valuation that leaves limited upside consensus support.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Qualys to identify, prioritize, and remediate security vulnerabilities across their IT infrastructure, cloud workloads, and web applications through a unified cloud platform. The value is reducing breach risk without deploying multiple point products.
The moat is moderate and rests on switching costs from workflow integration, compliance mapping, threat intelligence history, and agent deployment scale. It can narrow if enterprise buyers increasingly buy vulnerability management as a feature of broader CrowdStrike, Microsoft, or Palo Alto Networks platforms.
The thesis fails if Qualys growth decelerates below 6%, making the current 27x PE unsustainable. It also fails if the cybersecurity market consolidates toward platform vendors, shrinking the addressable market for independent VM and cloud security pure plays.
Sumedh Thakar leads with a product and engineering background. The team has demonstrated operating discipline, steady margin expansion, and controlled spending, but does not have a transformative M&A or platform-expansion track record.
Cybersecurity spending grows with digital risk, but the VM and cloud security segments face platform bundling pressure from larger vendors. AI-driven security tools may create new attack surfaces that benefit Qualys, but also enable new competitors.
At $152.69, the market prices Qualys for sustained mid-single-digit revenue growth with stable or expanding margins. Margin of safety is thin because the consensus analyst target near $115 is about 25% below the current price, meaning the stock would need faster growth or a re-rating to justify current levels.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLYS quote reference | $152.69 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $5.38 billion calculated from $152.69 price and 35.22 million diluted shares outstanding | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $175.64 million revenue, $50.64 million GAAP net income | Google Finance Q1 2026 income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and FCF | $684.86 million TTM revenue, $237.36 million levered FCF, 34.6% FCF margin | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt position | $471.35 million total cash, minimal debt at 9.17% debt-to-equity | Yahoo Finance balance sheet summary | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue cross-check | $668.95 million revenue and $198.32 million GAAP net income for fiscal 2025 | TradingView fundamentals | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 27.5x trailing PE, 22.7x trailing P/FCF, 7.9x TTM revenue, 9.5x book, 20.4x forward PE | Yahoo Finance statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 4 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell; average target $115.46, high $190, low $85 | Google Finance analyst ratings | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $74.51 low to $164.17 high | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 3-scenario: bearish $112 (18x, 4% growth), base $185 (25x, 10% growth), bullish $254 (30x, 15% growth) over 3 years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario verification | July 12, 2026 |
This QLYS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, competition, cybersecurity spending trends, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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