Is QLYS a buy according to AI stock analysis?

QLYS AI stock analysis does not classify Qualys as a straightforward buy because the stock trades about 9% above the average analyst target near $132. The business quality is solid with high margins, consistent FCF, and a defensible cybersecurity niche, but the current price may already reflect these strengths, leaving limited room for upside consensus support.

What technical levels matter for QLYS?

The key QLYS technical levels are support near $133 to $138, $127 to $130, and $118 to $122, with resistance near $148 to $150 and $160 to $168. The 52-week high at $167.86 is the critical breakout level, while a close below the 50-day moving average near $127.78 would weaken the 2026 uptrend.

Can AI predict QLYS stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize evidence, compare scenarios, test valuation assumptions, and flag risk triggers, but QLYS shares can move for earnings surprises, analyst rating changes, cybersecurity sector rotation, platform consolidation news, and broader market sentiment shifts.

How should I use this QLYS AI trading strategy?

Use this QLYS AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not as personal advice. Tie any setup to explicit rules for revenue growth, FCF margin, cloud security adoption, competitive landscape, valuation, technical invalidation, and position sizing, and reassess after the August 4, 2026 earnings report.

What makes Qualys different from other cybersecurity stocks?

Qualys differs from many cybersecurity peers because it started as a pure vulnerability management SaaS platform and has expanded into cloud security, patch management, and EDR from a unified agent and cloud architecture. Unlike platform vendors, Qualys remains a focused pure play, which limits TAM but also avoids platform integration complexity.

Qualys, Inc. research snapshot

QLYS AI Stock Analysis

Q: What is the QLYS AI stock forecast?

The QLYS AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a target price. Using forward EPS of about $7.49 and a 3-year framework, the model points to a bearish area near $126, a base area near $189, and a bullish area near $263 depending on growth rates, margins, and valuation multiples, which is above the roughly $132 average analyst target.

QLYS AI stock analysis currently reads Qualys as a profitable cloud security platform selling vulnerability management, cloud security (CNAPP), patch management, EDR, and compliance solutions on a unified SaaS platform. Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $175.64 million, up 9.8% year over year, GAAP net income reached $50.64 million, and the company generated about $237 million in levered free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. The caution is price discipline: at a $144.75 July 31 close and about $5.10 billion calculated equity value, the QLYS AI stock forecast trades at 26.0x trailing earnings, 18.4x forward earnings, and 21.5x trailing free cash flow. The stock has rallied roughly 45% since the May earnings report, and the average analyst price target near $132 sits about 9% below the current price. This is scenario analysis for information only, not investment advice.

Current price

$144.75 close on July 31, 2026

Market cap

$5.10 billion calculated equity value

AI score

64 / 100

Rating

Profitable cloud security SaaS with strong FCF and niche leadership, still priced above the consensus target after a roughly 45% post-earnings run

Trend status

Strong medium-term uptrend after nearly doubling from an April low, now in a short-term pullback below the 20-day moving average while holding above the 50-day

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: B-level information richness, borderline A. Qualys has been public since 2012 with 15 analyst ratings, SEC filings, and rich Yahoo Finance and Google Finance market data, but its roughly $5 billion market cap means less sell-side depth than large-cap cybersecurity peers. Coverage is adequate but concentrated among mid-cap software specialists.
bias Check: The main AI research bias risk is extrapolating the roughly 45% post-earnings run as a new trend, over-weighting the Scotiabank upgrade to $190 from $100 while under-weighting that 10 of 15 analysts still rate the stock Hold or Sell and the average target near $132 is below the current price.
ai Confidence: High for company-reported Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue, net income, cash, and diluted share count. Medium for technical levels and market cap because moving averages shift daily and the rapid price move increases data staleness risk.
investment Certainty: Medium. The business has consistent SaaS metrics, high margins, strong FCF, and a defensible niche, and analyst targets have moved up since May. But the stock trades above the consensus average target and the immediate catalyst is a binary Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings print on August 4, 2026.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	Qualys sells cloud-based cybersecurity and compliance solutions on a single SaaS platform, anchored by vulnerability management with expanding cloud security, patch, EDR, and compliance modules.	High
Moat	The moat comes from enterprise switching costs, vulnerability management brand, threat intelligence data, compliance workflow integration, and 10,300-plus customer relationships. It can narrow if Microsoft, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, or Tenable embed similar capability into broader platforms.	Medium
Management	President and CEO Sumedh Thakar has led the company since June 2021, previously serving as CTO and CPO. The leadership team has a track record of steady SaaS execution, controlled opex growth, consistent FCF, and margin discipline, and framed Q1 as a pre-breach risk management shift.	Medium-high
Financial trend	Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 9.8% YoY to $175.64 million, GAAP net income was $50.64 million, operating income was $61.51 million, and trailing 12-month levered FCF was about $237 million with a 34.7% FCF margin.	High
Valuation	At $144.75, financial_rigor.py calculated 26.0x trailing GAAP PE, 21.5x trailing levered FCF, 7.5x TTM revenue, and a forward PE near 18x based on consensus estimates. The stock trades about 9% above the average analyst target near $132.	Medium-high
Technical trend	QLYS doubled from a $74.51 52-week low to a $167.86 52-week high, pulled back to a $133 to $137 consolidation, then bounced to the $144.75 close. The stock sits below the 20-day moving average but above the 50-day and 200-day averages.	Medium
Risk level	Main risks are growth deceleration, competition from larger security platforms, limited TAM for pure-play VM, valuation re-rating if Q2 disappoints, insider selling patterns, and an August 4 earnings event that can move the stock sharply.	Medium-high
AI confidence	Descriptive confidence is high on reported financials, but forward scenario confidence is medium because analyst estimates diverge widely and the stock is near consensus-implied fair value.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	QLYS looks like a well-run SaaS business, and targets have risen since May, but the stock still trades above the consensus average target with a binary earnings catalyst ahead, so it is not a high-conviction entry point here.	Low-medium

QLYS AI stock forecast

QLYS AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The QLYS AI stock forecast uses the $144.75 July 31 close and forward EPS of about $7.49 derived from the consensus-based forward P/E, run through a three-year earnings multiple framework. The audited model produced a bearish area near $126, a base area near $189, and a bullish area near $263 before buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes beyond the stated assumptions. These levels sit above the roughly $132 average analyst target and the current price, so they reflect scenario upside rather than a consensus view. These are scenario ranges, not price promises.

Bullish case

$245 to $280

More likely if revenue re-accelerates above 12% through cloud security module adoption, the TotalAI risk fabric attaches new customers, FCF margin expands beyond 35%, or investors award a 25x forward PE on EPS above $10.50.

Base case

$170 to $205

More likely if Qualys sustains 8% to 10% revenue growth, operating margins remain stable, the stock re-rates toward 20x forward PE on EPS near $9.40, and the Q2 earnings report on August 4 confirms the May guidance momentum.

Bearish case

$115 to $135

More likely if growth decelerates below 4%, Microsoft or CrowdStrike bundle VM features reduce Qualys wallet share, the stock re-rates to 15x forward PE, or the consensus average target near $132 proves to be the equilibrium level.

QLYS AI technical analysis

QLYS AI Technical Analysis

QLYS AI technical analysis shows a stock in a powerful medium-term uptrend that has entered a short-term pullback. The stock formed a 52-week low near $74.51 on April 9, 2026, rallied to an intraday high of $167.86 on July 15, then pulled back to a $133 to $137 consolidation before bouncing to a $144.75 July 31 close. Price sits below the 20-day moving average near $148.86 but above the 50-day near $127.78 and the 200-day near $118.84. Yahoo Finance and TradingView data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$144.75	July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math.
52-week high	$167.86	Intraday high set on July 15, 2026 during the post-earnings and upgrade-driven surge. Acts as the key resistance reference.
52-week low	$74.51	Set on April 9, 2026 during a sector-wide selloff. The stock has roughly doubled from that level.
Immediate support	$133 to $138	The July 23 to July 29 consolidation zone where the pullback found buyers before the bounce.
Medium support	$127 to $130	The 50-day moving average near $127.78. A strong trend anchor for pullbacks.
Major support	$118 to $122	The 200-day moving average near $118.84. A close below this level would challenge the 2026 uptrend.
Near resistance	$148 to $150	The 20-day moving average near $148.86. A reclaim would signal the pullback is complete.
Key resistance	$160 to $168	The July high zone. A clean break above $167.86 with volume would open the next leg higher.
Moving averages	20-day near $148.86, 50-day near $127.78, 200-day near $118.84	Price below the 20-day confirms short-term pullback, while holding above the 50-day and 200-day keeps the medium-term uptrend intact.
Momentum	Short-term negative, medium-term positive	The stock is consolidating after a steep July run. Momentum will likely resolve around the August 4 earnings report.
Volume	Event-sensitive	Average volume near 800K. Volume spiked on the July 21 selloff and on upgrade days. Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout.
Volatility	Mid-cap software volatility with low beta	QLYS carries a five-year beta near 0.61 but can still move sharply on earnings, analyst ratings, and cybersecurity sector rotation.
Invalidation	Close below $127.78, then below $118.84	A close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the uptrend. A close below the 200-day near $118.84 would challenge the entire 2026 advance.

QLYS AI trading strategy

QLYS AI Trading Strategy Framework

The QLYS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects Qualys revenue growth, FCF margin, cloud security module attach rates, competitive dynamics, valuation discipline, technical invalidation levels, and the August 4 Q2 earnings event.

Trend-following setup

Watch for QLYS to hold above the $133 to $138 support zone, reclaim the 20-day moving average near $148.86, and stage a clean break above $167.86 on above-average volume while the August 4 earnings report confirms stable or accelerating revenue growth, maintained operating margins, and steady FCF.

A failed breakout with a close back below $138, or a close below the 50-day moving average near $127.78, should reduce setup conviction, especially if guidance signals deceleration or competitive pressure from Microsoft or CrowdStrike intensifies.

Mean-reversion setup

If QLYS pulls back toward the $118 to $127 zone without a fundamental reset (no guidance cut, no competitive loss), compare the lower price with consensus EPS, FCF per share, and peer multiples among Tenable, Rapid7, and Varonis.

Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the company lowers guidance, insider selling accelerates, or cybersecurity spending shifts toward platform consolidation that bypasses pure-play VM vendors.

Fundamental monitor

Track the August 4 Q2 fiscal 2026 report for revenue growth (target near or above 9% YoY), GAAP operating margin, levered FCF conversion, dollar-based net retention, cloud security module adoption, large customer count, and total customer additions beyond the 10,300-plus base.

Position sizing should reflect that QLYS is a solid but modest-growth cybersecurity SaaS whose price is near consensus-implied fair value, which leaves limited upside support at current levels.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay Qualys to identify, prioritize, and remediate security vulnerabilities across their IT infrastructure, cloud workloads, and web applications through a unified cloud platform. The value is reducing breach risk without deploying multiple point products.

Moat

The moat is moderate and rests on switching costs from workflow integration, compliance mapping, threat intelligence history, and agent deployment scale. It can narrow if enterprise buyers increasingly buy vulnerability management as a feature of broader CrowdStrike, Microsoft, or Palo Alto Networks platforms.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if Qualys growth decelerates below 4%, making the current 26x trailing PE hard to sustain. It also fails if the cybersecurity market consolidates toward platform vendors, shrinking the addressable market for independent VM and cloud security pure plays.

Management

Sumedh Thakar leads with a product and engineering background and is pushing the TotalAI risk fabric narrative. The team has demonstrated operating discipline, steady margin expansion, and controlled spending, but does not have a transformative M&A or platform-expansion track record.

Industry trend

Cybersecurity spending grows with digital risk, and Q1 group revenue growth was healthy across the tracked names. But the VM and cloud security segments face platform bundling pressure from larger vendors, and AI-driven security tools may create new attack surfaces that benefit Qualys while also enabling new competitors.

Valuation and margin of safety

At $144.75, the market prices Qualys for sustained high-single-digit revenue growth with stable or expanding margins. Margin of safety is thin because the average analyst target near $132 is about 9% below the current price, so the stock would need faster growth or a re-rating to justify current levels, or the post-earnings momentum to persist through the August 4 print.

Source-backed data

QLYS Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
QLYS quote reference	$144.75 close on July 31, 2026	Yahoo Finance chart history and Google Finance quote	August 3, 2026
Market cap verification	$5.10 billion calculated from $144.75 price and 35.22 million shares outstanding, verified with financial_rigor.py at 0.04% deviation	Google Finance and financial_rigor.py	August 3, 2026
Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue and net income	$175.64 million revenue, up 9.8% YoY, $50.64 million GAAP net income	Google Finance income statement and StockStory Q1 review	August 3, 2026
TTM revenue and FCF	$684.86 million TTM revenue, $237.36 million levered FCF, 34.7% FCF margin	Yahoo Finance key statistics and Google Finance quarterly sum	August 3, 2026
Cash and debt position	$471.35 million total cash, minimal debt at 9.17% debt-to-equity	Yahoo Finance balance sheet summary	August 3, 2026
Quarterly revenue sequence	$164.06M (Jun 2025), $169.88M (Sep 2025), $175.28M (Dec 2025), $175.64M (Mar 2026)	Google Finance quarterly income statement	August 3, 2026
Valuation ratios	26.0x trailing PE, 21.5x trailing P/FCF, 7.5x TTM revenue, 18.4x forward PE	Yahoo Finance statistics and financial_rigor.py	August 3, 2026
Analyst consensus	4 Buy, 10 Hold, 1 Sell; average target $132, high $190 (Scotiabank upgrade July 6, 2026), low $95	Google Finance analyst ratings	August 3, 2026
52-week price range	$74.51 low to $167.86 high	Yahoo Finance key statistics	August 3, 2026
Valuation math	3-scenario: bearish $126 (15x, 4% growth), base $189 (20x, 8% growth), bullish $263 (25x, 12% growth) over 3 years	financial_rigor.py three-scenario verification	August 3, 2026

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This QLYS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if growth, margins, competition, cybersecurity spending trends, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.