TransDigm Group Incorporated research snapshot
TDG AI stock analysis reads TransDigm Group as a high-quality aerospace components business with unusual pricing power, proprietary parts exposure, a large installed aftermarket base, and a proven private-equity-style acquisition model. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, TDG closed near $1,254.38 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market cap near $70.16 billion, TTM revenue near $9.50 billion, trailing PE near 39.2x, and free cash flow yield near 2.6%. The TDG AI stock forecast is positive on business quality but scenario-based on price because the stock already discounts durable growth, high margins, continued acquisition activity, and a leverage profile that now coexists with rising antitrust scrutiny after the company withdrew its Stellant Systems deal under a DOJ threat.
Current price
$1,254.38
Market cap
$70.16 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
High-quality aerospace aftermarket compounder trading well below its 52-week high, with high leverage and rising regulatory scrutiny requiring valuation discipline
Trend status
Price sits below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a roughly 23% drawdown from the 52-week high, while the long-term franchise remains intact
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | TransDigm sells highly engineered aircraft components used on commercial and military aircraft, with many products tied to proprietary parts and recurring aftermarket demand. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from sole-source positions, certified aerospace parts, switching costs, installed fleets, pricing discipline, and decentralized operating units. | High |
| Management | Mike Lisman became CEO on October 1, 2025 after Kevin Stein retired, while founder W. Nicholas Howley remains chairman, keeping the value-driven operating strategy culturally visible. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net sales rose 11.2% to $8.831 billion, Q2 FY2026 net sales rose 18% to $2.544 billion, and FY2026 net sales guidance was raised to $10.30 to $10.42 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $1,254.38, TDG screens near 39.2x trailing earnings, 28.6x forward earnings, 7.4x sales, 37.9x free cash flow, and 20.4x EV/EBITDA. | High |
| Technical trend | TDG trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and about 22.6% below the 52-week high near $1,620.58, with RSI near 49. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include debt load, interest expense, acquisition integration, DOJ antitrust action against M&A, airline cycle exposure, defense budget timing, pricing scrutiny, and valuation multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings, company releases, and market data agree on the main operating facts. Forecast confidence is lower because price outcomes depend on valuation, credit conditions, and antitrust outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | TDG is a quality compounder candidate, but margin of safety is only moderate at a still-premium multiple and high net debt. | Medium |
TDG AI stock forecast
The TDG AI stock forecast uses the $1,254.38 price reference, FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $38.83 to $40.21, and a two-year scenario model. A bearish area near $1,000 to $1,150, a base area near $1,290 to $1,420, and a bullish area near $1,550 to $1,720 before future capital returns. This is not a fixed prediction. The range is wide because TransDigm combines unusually high business quality with leverage, antitrust uncertainty around M&A, and a valuation that still assumes durable aerospace aftermarket growth.
$1,550 to $1,720
More likely if commercial aftermarket, commercial OEM, and defense demand stay healthy, the Prince & Izant deal closes cleanly and later acquisitions proceed without DOJ pushback, EBITDA margins stay near 52%, and the market re-rates TDG back toward a low-30s forward earnings multiple.
$1,290 to $1,420
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds around 10% from the raised FY2026 guidance, Q3 results due August 4, 2026 confirm guidance, and investors value TDG near 28 to 30 times forward earnings because leverage and antitrust limits on M&A cap multiple expansion.
$1,000 to $1,150
More likely if airline traffic weakens, aftermarket pricing draws more regulatory pressure, the DOJ blocks or delays the Prince & Izant deal, credit spreads widen, interest expense consumes more cash flow, or the market re-rates TDG toward a low-20s earnings multiple.
TDG AI technical analysis
TDG AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31, 2026 close near $1,254.38, a 50-day moving average near $1,263.61, a 200-day moving average near $1,280.82, RSI near 49.22, and a 20-day average volume near 320,444 shares. Barchart cross-checks showed the same 50-day and 200-day moving averages, 14-day relative strength near 49.22, and a 14-day ATR near $34.27 or 2.73% of price. The 52-week range runs from $1,123.61 to $1,620.58, so price is in the lower half of the range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $1,254.38 | July 31, 2026 close used for valuation and market-cap checks at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $1,230 to $1,250 | Recent consolidation area above the July 22 low near $1,192.08 and below the 50-day moving average. |
| Stronger support | $1,190 to $1,205 | This zone contains the July 13 and July 22 intraday lows and is the first meaningful trend test below the moving averages. |
| Key support | $1,123.61 | The 52-week low. A close below it would confirm a broader downtrend and open lower pricing. |
| Near resistance | $1,290 to $1,320 | The July 28 intraday high near $1,317.66 sits here. A reclaim would improve the short-term picture. |
| Major resistance | $1,340 to $1,360 | The July 6 and July 7 highs near $1,346 to $1,359 are here. Above that, focus returns to the $1,620.58 52-week high. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $1,263.61, 200-day near $1,280.82 | Price is below both references. Reclaiming them would be the first sign the drawdown is losing momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49.22 | Momentum is neutral, so the trend outcome depends on whether price can reclaim the 200-day area or breaks the July lows. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 320,444 to 325,245 shares | TDG remains liquid for institutional investors, but volume confirmation matters around the August 4 earnings release. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $34.27, about 2.73% of price | Daily moves can be meaningful because high nominal price, leverage, earnings revisions, and antitrust headlines interact. |
| Invalidation | Close below $1,190, then below $1,123.61 | A close below the July low zone weakens the framework. A break below the 52-week low near $1,123.61 would argue for a broader risk reset. |
TDG AI trading strategy
The TDG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It links price behavior with commercial aftermarket demand, OEM recovery, defense orders, acquisition execution, antitrust outcomes, free cash flow, debt service, and valuation discipline.
Watch for TDG to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $1,263.61 and then the $1,290 to $1,320 resistance band while Q3 results confirm organic growth, EBITDA margin strength, and the raised FY2026 guidance.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $1,190 should reduce trend confidence, especially if commentary points to weaker aftermarket demand, higher interest burden, or further antitrust constraints on M&A.
If TDG pulls back toward $1,190 to $1,205 without damage to bookings, aftermarket pricing, free cash flow, or credit access, compare the lower price with the base-case valuation range and the analyst consensus near $1,512.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if EPS revisions fall, debt metrics worsen, the DOJ blocks or delays the Prince & Izant deal, or regulators and customers push harder against price increases.
Track commercial aftermarket growth, commercial OEM demand, defense growth, EBITDA As Defined margin, interest expense, net debt, free cash flow conversion, acquisition returns, antitrust rulings, and the August 4, 2026 Q3 report.
Position sizing should reflect that TDG is a leveraged aerospace quality compounder with antitrust exposure, not a guaranteed aerospace recovery trade.
Investment research summary
Customers pay TransDigm because aircraft operators and OEMs need certified, reliable, often proprietary components that are hard to replace once designed into an aircraft platform.
The moat is strongest in proprietary aerospace parts, sole-source components, certification barriers, aftermarket pricing, installed fleet exposure, decentralized operating discipline, and acquisition sourcing. It is weaker where airline cycles, OEM production timing, pricing scrutiny, or antitrust action pressure volumes and prices.
The thesis fails if debt-financed dividends and acquisitions overreach, air traffic weakens, pricing power invites regulatory or customer action, the DOJ keeps blocking or delaying deals, interest expense consumes more cash flow, or investors stop paying a premium for high margins.
Mike Lisman, CEO since October 2025, and chairman W. Nicholas Howley preserve TransDigm value-driven operating culture. The key test is whether the team can keep acquisition discipline and pricing power while managing a highly leveraged balance sheet and a stricter antitrust environment.
TransDigm benefits from global air traffic growth, aging fleets, defense sustainment, commercial OEM recovery, and outsourced aerospace supply chains. The offset is exposure to airline profitability, U.S. defense budgets, supply-chain shocks, and a less permissive M&A environment.
At $1,254.38, the market still pays for quality, high margins, and long-run compounding, but the roughly 23% drawdown from the 52-week high has improved the setup. Margin of safety improves further if price resets closer to the bearish-to-base range or if EPS growth proves strong enough to justify the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TDG quote reference | $1,254.38 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis TDG statistics and overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $70.16 billion reported and $70.15 billion calculated from $1,254.38 x 55.93 million shares | StockAnalysis TDG market cap and Pineify market cap math | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 55.93 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 sales and net income | $8.831 billion net sales, $2.074 billion net income, and $32.08 GAAP EPS | TransDigm FY2025 fourth-quarter and year-end release and StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 sales and earnings | $2.544 billion net sales, $536 million net income, $9.20 GAAP EPS, and $9.85 adjusted EPS | TransDigm Q2 FY2026 earnings release via PRNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $10,300 million to $10,420 million net sales, $5,370 million to $5,470 million EBITDA As Defined, and $38.83 to $40.21 adjusted EPS expected for fiscal 2026 | TransDigm Q2 FY2026 earnings release via PRNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue, net income, and EPS | $9.50 billion revenue, $2.08 billion net income, and $32.04 EPS | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $1.850 billion TTM free cash flow from operating cash flow of $2.105 billion minus capital expenditures of $255 million | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net debt | $3.884 billion cash, $32.003 billion total debt, and $28.119 billion net debt on the latest balance-sheet snapshot | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 39.17x PE, 28.63x forward PE, 7.38x sales, 37.93x free cash flow, and 20.42x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $1,263.61, 200-day moving average $1,280.82, RSI 49.22, and 20-day average volume 320,444 shares | StockAnalysis TDG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cross-check technical indicators | Barchart listed the same 50-day moving average $1,263.61, 200-day moving average $1,280.82, 14-day relative strength 49.22, and 14-day ATR $34.27 | Barchart TDG technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and analyst consensus | 52-week range $1,123.61 to $1,620.58, consensus Buy, and average price target $1,511.95 | StockAnalysis TDG overview and forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Management and governance changes | Mike Lisman became CEO on October 1, 2025; Kevin Stein retired September 30, 2025; W. Nicholas Howley remains chairman | PRNewswire and TransDigm leadership page | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent M&A events | Stellant Systems acquisition withdrawn July 13, 2026 after DOJ antitrust threat; Prince & Izant acquisition for about $1.066 billion announced July 27, 2026 | Reuters and PRNewswire | August 2, 2026 |
This TDG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell TransDigm Group securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, leverage, antitrust outcomes, credit markets, or market liquidity change.
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