Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited research snapshot
TAK AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited as a deep value turnaround, with the ADR at $17.09 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $55.24 billion, verified as the Tokyo-listed ordinary share price of about 5,513 JPY times roughly 1.57 billion shares converted at prevailing exchange rates. The Q1 FY2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered revenue of 1.22 trillion JPY, up 10.2% at actual FX but flat at CER, core operating profit of 358.9 billion JPY, reported operating profit of 201.4 billion JPY, core EPS of 154 JPY, and reported EPS of 72 JPY, in line with full-year guidance of 650 to 750 billion JPY free cash flow. The stock trades near 17.6x forward earnings, 1.19x book value, and 11.3x trailing free cash flow, with an 8.9% free cash flow yield and a 2.9% dividend yield, but reported GAAP trailing EPS is negative after a loss-making FY2025, net debt stands near 4.4 trillion JPY, and ENTYVIO faces long-term US biosimilar risk. Three near-term catalysts are the ORZEYFUL and rusfertide launches in the second half of 2026 and the zasocitinib launch in the first half of 2027. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$17.09
Market cap
$55.24 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Deep value turnaround with pipeline catalysts
Trend status
Constructive: price holds above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 55
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Takeda is a global research-based pharmaceutical company with FY2025 revenue of about 4.51 trillion JPY (roughly $30 billion), built around gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience, anchored by the number one prescribed IBD brand ENTYVIO. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat combines clinical leadership in IBD (ENTYVIO), rare-disease expertise, plasma-derived therapy scale and collection networks, regulatory barriers, patient and physician switching costs, and a deep pipeline of first-in-class assets, with IP litigation defending ENTYVIO. | Medium-high |
| Management | Julie Kim, appointed president and CEO in June 2026 after an 18-month transition, is running a two-horizon strategy: return to top-line growth, protect core operating margins while investing, and lift ROE above 5%, funded by a transformation program, with a capital markets day scheduled for December 11, 2026. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Reported FY2025 was a loss year, with net income of negative 152.2 billion JPY and EPS of negative 48.38 JPY, driven mainly by reported charges, while Q1 FY2026 delivered revenue of 1.22 trillion JPY up 10.2% at actual FX, reported operating profit of 201.4 billion JPY, reported EPS of 72 JPY, and full-year free cash flow guidance of 650 to 750 billion JPY. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $17.09, TAK trades near 17.6x forward earnings, 1.94x sales, 1.19x book value, and 11.3x trailing free cash flow, with an 8.9% free cash flow yield and a 2.9% dividend yield; trailing GAAP PE is not meaningful because reported TTM EPS is negative. | Medium |
| Technical trend | TAK closed at $17.09 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 55 and 14-day ADX near 24, inside a 52-week range of $12.99 to $18.90. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are high leverage with about 4.4 trillion JPY net debt and 4.75x debt to EBITDA, ENTYVIO US pricing and long-term biosimilar risk, VYVANSE loss of exclusivity, launch and PDUFA execution risk for the three new medicines, and currency swings between the yen and the dollar. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL 20-F data, the Q1 FY2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because reported profitability is currently negative, net debt is large, and launch and competitive assumptions are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and reported GAAP profitability is currently negative. | Medium-low |
TAK AI stock forecast
The TAK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $17.09 and the implied forward earnings near $0.97 per ADR. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $13.6, a base area near $19.6, and a bullish area near $26.9 over three years, using EPS growth of 0%, 4%, and 8% and exit multiples of 14x, 18x, and 22x. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$24 to $29
More likely if ORZEYFUL and rusfertide launch in the second half of 2026 and zasocitinib in the first half of 2027 with strong payer coverage, core EPS grows at a high single digit to low double digit rate, ROE recovers above 5%, ENTYVIO holds share, and the market rewards the pipeline with a higher multiple.
$18 to $22
More likely if Takeda executes in line with its unchanged FY2026 guidance, delivers 650 to 750 billion JPY free cash flow, ENTYVIO grows low single digits, the new launches ramp modestly, and the stock holds near 17x to 19x forward earnings, consistent with the analyst consensus target near $21.63.
$12 to $16
More likely if launch delays or weak payer coverage reduce the new product ramp, ENTYVIO US erosion accelerates ahead of the roughly 2032 biosimilar timeline, the yen strengthens sharply against the dollar, interest costs rise on the large debt load, or the market keeps the multiple compressed, toward the 52-week low of $12.99.
TAK AI technical analysis
TAK AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The ADR closed at $17.09 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 54.93 and 14-day ADX near 23.92. A 52-week high of $18.90 remains overhead as the main resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $17.09 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, with after-hours near $17.14. |
| Near support | $16.85 to $17.00 | The 100-day moving average was near $16.87 and the 20-day near $16.96 on July 31, 2026, forming the first pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $16.25 to $16.30 | The 50-day moving average was near $16.28 and the 200-day near $16.27 on July 31, 2026, forming the main trend support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $17.40 to $17.50 | The 5-day moving average was near $17.41 on July 31, 2026, marking near-term overhead above the close. |
| Major resistance | $18.90 | The 52-week high of $18.90 is the major upside reference and a natural breakout target. |
| 20-day moving average | $16.96 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $16.96, just below the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | $16.28 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $16.28 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $16.87 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $16.87 on July 31, 2026, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $16.27 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $16.27, below the current price and consistent with the longer-term recovery. |
| Momentum | RSI near 55, ADX near 24 | 14-day RSI was near 54.93, neutral and not overbought, while 14-day ADX near 23.92 with +DI of 33.35 above -DI of 26.12 showed a modest positive trend on Barchart. |
| Volume | About 3.9 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 3.92 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 3.92 million on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Low absolute, moderate relative | 14-day average true range was near $0.34 (about 1.97%), 14-day historic volatility near 24.3%, and beta near 0.09, so TAK is a low-beta ADR with a modest daily range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $16.25 | A decisive close below the 50-day and 200-day support cluster near $16.25 to $16.30 would break the uptrend; a close below the 20-day near $16.96 weakens near-term support. |
TAK AI trading strategy
The TAK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching a deep value pharma turnaround. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, launch news, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for TAK to hold above the 20-day moving average near $16.96 and to build volume on a move toward the $18.90 high, with the 200-day trend line near $16.27 still below price.
A daily close below the $16.25 to $16.30 support cluster or a failed attempt at the 52-week high should trigger a stop and review.
If TAK pulls back toward the $16.25 to $17.00 support zone without new regulatory, competitive, or balance-sheet damage, compare the price reaction with launch news, ENTYVIO prescription trends, and net debt progress before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a VYVANSE, biosimilar, or yen headline can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track the ORZEYFUL and rusfertide second-half 2026 launches and the rusfertide August 2026 PDUFA date, ENTYVIO growth and biosimilar litigation, core revenue and margin guidance, net debt reduction, free cash flow conversion of 650 to 750 billion JPY, and the December 11, 2026 capital markets day.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow guidance is cut, net debt stops falling, reported losses widen, or a launch slips past its stated window.
Investment research summary
Takeda sells medicines that treat chronic and serious conditions in gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. ENTYVIO anchors the portfolio as the number one prescribed IBD brand, supported by a plasma franchise and a growing set of new launches.
The moat comes from clinical leadership in IBD, rare-disease expertise, plasma collection and manufacturing scale, regulatory barriers, high switching costs for chronic therapies, and a pipeline of first-in-class assets such as ORZEYFUL, rusfertide, and zasocitinib.
The thesis fails if VYVANSE loss of exclusivity and ENTYVIO US pricing and biosimilar erosion compress the base, if reported profitability stays negative while net debt stays near 4.4 trillion JPY, if the three launches miss their windows or payer coverage, or if the yen strengthens sharply against the dollar.
Julie Kim, appointed president and CEO in June 2026, is executing a two-horizon strategy with a transformation program that funds launches and late-stage pipeline work. The key test is whether reported profits recover and ROE moves above 5% by the December 11, 2026 capital markets day.
Global pharma is managing a loss-of-exclusivity cycle while demand for biologics, rare disease, plasma, and new oral agents grows. Takeda sits across IBD, plasma, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience and is using AI-enabled discovery, including its zasocitinib program and the Insilico collaboration.
At about 17.6x forward earnings, 11.3x trailing free cash flow, an 8.9% free cash flow yield, and a 2.9% dividend yield, the valuation is inexpensive on a cash flow basis, but reported GAAP earnings are negative and net debt is large, so the margin of safety depends on core cash flow and launch execution rather than on reported EPS.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAK ADR price | $17.09 at the July 31, 2026 close, after-hours near $17.14 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $55.24 billion, consistent with the Tokyo-listed ordinary share price of about 5,513 JPY times roughly 1.57 billion shares converted at prevailing FX; 1 TAK ADR represents 0.5 ordinary share | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 revenue | 1.22 trillion JPY, up 10.2% at actual FX and down 0.5% at CER, with FX adding 118.2 billion JPY | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call and release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating profit | Core operating profit of 358.9 billion JPY, up 11.5% at actual FX and down 0.5% at CER; reported operating profit of 201.4 billion JPY, up 9.1% at actual FX | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 EPS | Core EPS of 154 JPY, down 11.8% at CER mainly on prior year tax favorability; reported EPS of 72 JPY | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 free cash flow guidance | 650 to 750 billion JPY, unchanged, with adjusted FCF reflecting the $200 million payment to Protagonist following its opt out of the rusfertide co-promotion agreement | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | 4.5057 trillion JPY for the year ending March 31, 2026, down 1.66% from 4.5816 trillion JPY, cross-checked against SEC EDGAR XBRL 20-F data | StockAnalysis.com financials and Takeda 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported profitability | Net income of negative 152.2 billion JPY and EPS of negative 48.38 JPY for the year ending March 31, 2026, a reported loss year; reported operating income of 6.2 billion JPY per StockAnalysis versus an alternative consensus operating income figure near 607.8 billion JPY | StockAnalysis.com financials and forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Historical net income and EPS | FY2024 net income of 108.1 billion JPY and EPS of 33.62, FY2023 net income of 144.2 billion JPY and EPS of 45.58, FY2022 net income of 317.0 billion JPY and EPS of 100.97 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix | GI revenue of 1.41 trillion JPY, plasma-derived therapies of 1.06 trillion JPY, rare diseases of 0.76 trillion JPY, oncology of 0.58 trillion JPY, neuroscience of 0.41 trillion JPY, vaccines of 0.06 trillion JPY for FY2025 | StockAnalysis.com revenue by segment | August 2, 2026 |
| ENYVIO performance | Grew about 4% at CER in Q1 FY2026, still the number one prescribed IBD brand with first-line leadership in UC, with strong ENTYVIO pen growth and 6.7% growth in Europe, 10% in Japan, and about 36% in intercontinental markets | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| New launches momentum | New launches of FRUZAQLA, LIVTENCITY, ADZYNMA, and QDENGA grew 22.6% at CER in Q1 FY2026, still about 4% of total revenue | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | Cash and short-term investments of 527.6 billion JPY and total debt of 4.94 trillion JPY as of June 30, 2026, with net cash of negative 4.41 trillion JPY | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE of 17.61, PS of 1.94, PB of 1.19, P/FCF of 11.27, P/OCF of 9.12, EV/EBITDA of 12.15, EV/FCF of 17.77 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Profitability and efficiency | TTM gross margin of 64.47%, operating margin of 13.85%, profit margin of negative 3.54%, ROE of negative 2.26%, ROIC of 5.13%, current ratio of 1.14, and debt to equity of 0.73 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $6.06 billion and free cash flow of $4.90 billion after capital expenditures of $1.16 billion, with FCF per share of $3.10 and an 8.87% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.49 per ADR for a 2.88% yield, with an ex-dividend date of March 31, 2026 and FY2025 dividend per share of 200 JPY | StockAnalysis.com dividends and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $21.63 across 3 analysts, low $19.75 and high $23.30, with a recent Bank of America Buy at $38 and TD Cowen Buy at $21 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 30, 2026 |
| Shareholder data | Shares outstanding of about 1.58 billion, shares changed down 1.64% year over year, insider ownership of 0.14%, institutional ownership of 49.47%, and short interest of 3.82 million shares at 0.24% of shares outstanding with 1.34 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $16.96, 50-day SMA near $16.28, 100-day SMA near $16.87, 200-day SMA near $16.27, 14-day RSI near 54.93, 14-day ADX near 23.92, 14-day ATR near $0.34, 14-day historic volatility near 24.3%, 52-week range of $12.99 to $18.90, and beta near 0.09 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 consensus | Revenue forecast of about 4.66 trillion JPY, up 3.34%, with net income of about 180.8 billion JPY and dividend per share near 204.36 JPY | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Management change | Julie Kim appointed representative director, president, and CEO at the June 2026 annual general meeting, completing the 18-month CEO transition from Christophe Weber | Takeda announcement via Business Wire and TheFly | June 24, 2026 |
| Launch milestones | ORZEYFUL approved in China with US and Japan decisions expected in the current quarter and US launch in the second half of 2026; rusfertide at a US FDA priority review with an August 2026 PDUFA date and launch in the second half of 2026; zasocitinib US launch in the first half of 2027 after outperforming deucravacitinib head to head in phase 3 psoriasis | Takeda Q1 FY2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
This TAK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, launch or regulatory news, ENTYVIO competition, yen moves, or macro conditions. Reported GAAP profitability is currently negative and leverage is high, so any analysis should be checked against current primary filings, exchange data, price data, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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