Sun Communities, Inc. research snapshot
SUI AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Sun Communities as a high-quality North American manufactured housing and RV REIT with improving operating momentum, a pending UK exit, and a fresh buyback program, with the stock at $123.48 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $15.33 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $123.48 times 124.15 million shares outstanding with a 0.00% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 report, released July 27, 2026, delivered Core FFO per share of $1.84, above the high end of guidance and the $1.76 consensus, with same-property NOI growth of 6.0% driven by 8.8% manufactured housing NOI growth, and management raised 2026 same-property NOI growth guidance to 4.5% to 5.3% and 2026 Core FFO guidance to $6.94 to $7.10. The planned sale of the UK Park Holidays business for about $1.04 billion is expected to close in the second half of 2026, and the board renewed a $1.0 billion repurchase program in May 2026 under which the company bought back roughly $200 million of stock during and after the quarter. Offsetting the momentum are a $1.1 billion non-cash UK valuation allowance that drove a reported GAAP net loss of $8.08 per diluted share in Q2, a stock price still below its 200-day moving average near $125.93, interest-rate sensitivity, and regional concentration in Florida and Michigan. This page is an informational tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$123.48
Market cap
$15.33 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
Quality REIT with improving operating momentum at a fair to full valuation
Trend status
Neutral to constructive, trading above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Sun Communities owns and operates manufactured housing and RV communities in the United States and Canada, generating recurring site rent from 455 developed properties and about 156,130 sites, with TTM revenue near $2.16 billion and high occupancy. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarcity of well-located communities, the cost and inconvenience of moving a manufactured home or RV, operating scale, high occupancy above 98%, and a long acquisition and development record. | Medium |
| Management | Charles D. Young has run a simplification and execution agenda since October 2025: Q2 Core FFO beat the high end of guidance, 2026 guidance was raised, the UK business is being sold for about $1.04 billion, and a $1.0 billion buyback was renewed with about $200 million repurchased during and after the quarter. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 Core FFO was $1.84 per share versus guidance and the $1.76 consensus, same-property NOI grew 6.0%, and management raised 2026 same-property NOI growth to 4.5% to 5.3% and 2026 Core FFO guidance to $6.94 to $7.10, with net debt to trailing twelve-month recurring EBITDA at 3.9x. | High |
| Valuation | At $123.48 the stock trades at about 17.6x the 2026 Core FFO midpoint of $7.02, an FFO yield near 5.7%, and a 3.63% dividend yield, a fair to full valuation for a high-quality residential REIT. | Medium |
| Technical trend | SUI closed at $123.48 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $122.16 but below its 200-day moving average near $125.93, with 14-day RSI near 53.52 and the 52-week high of $137.85 overhead as the next resistance. | Medium-low |
| Risk level | Key risks are interest-rate sensitivity, regional concentration in Florida and Michigan, RV NOI down 0.7% in Q2 with third-quarter seasonality, the pending UK sale that may or may not close, the $1.1 billion non-cash UK valuation allowance, and a stock still below its 200-day moving average. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Google Finance, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call. Lower for forward return estimates because rates, RV seasonality, and UK sale timing are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
SUI AI stock forecast
The SUI AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $123.48 and the 2026 Core FFO guidance midpoint of $7.02. The framework produced a bearish area near $104, a base area near $129, and a bullish area near $154 before dividends, using Core FFO per share growth of 0%, 4%, and 8% and exit multiples of 15x, 18x, and 20x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$140 to $165
More likely if same-property NOI growth stays at the upper end of guidance, interest rates decline or stay stable, the UK sale closes on schedule and simplifies the story, RV NOI turns positive in the third quarter, and the stock re-rates toward a higher P/FFO multiple.
$120 to $136
More likely if Sun Communities delivers 2026 Core FFO near the $6.94 to $7.10 range, same-property NOI grows near the 4.9% midpoint, RV seasonality plays out in line with guidance, and the valuation stays close to current P/FFO levels.
$96 to $112
More likely if interest rates move higher, same-property NOI growth falls below guidance, RV demand softens in the third quarter, the UK sale is delayed or disrupted, or the REIT sector sees broader multiple compression.
SUI AI technical analysis
SUI AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $123.48 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $122.16 but below its 200-day moving average near $125.93, with 14-day RSI near 53.52. The 52-week range is $115.90 to $137.85, so a break above the 200-day area near $126 and then the $130 zone would strengthen the setup, while a close below the $122 to $123 area near the 50-day average would weaken it.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $123.48 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 124.15 million shares outstanding. |
| 52-week range | $115.90 to $137.85 | The July 31, 2026 close sits in the middle of the range, above the low set in early 2026 and below the 2026 high. |
| 50-day moving average | $122.16 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $122.16, just below the current price, making it the first near-term support. |
| 200-day moving average | $125.93 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $125.93, above the current price and acting as the main near-term resistance. |
| Near support | $118.00 to $122.00 | The 50-day moving average near $122.16 and the $118 area below it form a first pullback support zone. |
| Near resistance | $126.00 to $130.00 | The 200-day moving average near $125.93 and the round $130 level are the immediate upside hurdles before the $137.85 high. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.5 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported 14-day RSI near 53.52, neutral, leaving room for the stock to work higher without being overbought. |
| Volume | About 1.91 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 1.91 million shares, with a 1.74 million average on Google Finance; use volume confirmation on any breakout. |
| Volatility | Moderate, beta 0.79 | SUI is less volatile than the broader market, but REITs still move on interest rates, guidance changes, and the UK sale timing. |
| Invalidation | Close below $122.00 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $122.16 would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the $118 zone would open the bear scenario. |
SUI AI trading strategy
The SUI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the REIT. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, interest-rate views, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for SUI to reclaim the 200-day moving average near $125.93 and to close above the $126 to $130 resistance zone with volume, which would put the $137.85 high back in play.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $122.16 or a failed attempt at the $126 to $130 zone should trigger a stop and review.
If SUI pulls back toward the $118 to $122 support band without a thesis break, compare the dividend yield, Core FFO trajectory, interest-rate outlook, and UK sale progress before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because rate headlines and RV seasonality can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track the metrics that matter most for a REIT: same-property NOI growth by MH and RV, occupancy, Core FFO per share, net debt to trailing twelve-month recurring EBITDA, dividend coverage, the UK sale timing, and buyback pace.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by interest-rate headlines without matching operating evidence, or when the RV segment keeps lagging the MH segment.
Investment research summary
Sun Communities charges rent for sites in manufactured housing and recreational vehicle communities in the United States and Canada, with recurring rental income from long-tenured residents and seasonal guests as the majority of revenue.
The moat comes from the scarcity of well-located communities, the cost and inconvenience of moving a manufactured home or RV, operating scale across 455 properties, high occupancy above 98%, and a disciplined acquisition and development record.
The thesis fails if interest rates rise and stay elevated, same-property NOI growth fades, RV demand softens in the seasonally important third quarter, the UK sale is delayed or disrupted after a $1.1 billion valuation allowance, Florida and Michigan weather or insurance costs rise, or the CEO transition and the search for a permanent CFO disrupt execution.
Charles D. Young, CEO since October 2025, has driven a simplification agenda: Q2 Core FFO of $1.84 beat the high end of guidance, 2026 guidance was raised, the UK business is being sold for about $1.04 billion, and a $1.0 billion buyback was renewed with about $200 million repurchased during and after the quarter. Gary Shiffman serves as non-executive chairman, and the CFO search is ongoing with Fernando Castro-Caratini providing leadership in transition.
Manufactured housing and RV communities benefit from long-term demand for attainable housing and outdoor recreation, with limited new supply from zoning and land availability supporting occupancy. The 21st Century Road to Housing Act, recently signed into law, includes provisions management views as constructive for manufactured housing.
At $123.48 SUI trades at about 17.6x the 2026 Core FFO midpoint of $7.02, an FFO yield near 5.7%, and a 3.63% dividend yield. The margin of safety is fair but not wide, and it narrows if growth slows or capital markets turn against the REIT sector.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUI price | $123.48 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $15.33 billion, computed as $123.48 x 124.15 million shares outstanding; Google Finance shows about $15.04 billion on the 121.80 million current share class | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 124.15 million shares outstanding, 121.80 million current share class | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $4.48 annual dividend at $1.12 per quarter, a 3.63% yield, ex-dividend June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Core FFO | Core FFO per share of $1.84 for Q2 2026 and $3.24 for the first six months, versus $1.76 and $3.02 in 2025 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Same-property NOI growth | Same-property NOI up 6.0% in Q2 2026 (MH up 8.8%, RV down 0.7%) and 6.1% for the first six months | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 Core FFO guidance | 2026 Core FFO guidance raised to $6.94 to $7.10 per share, with Q3 2026 Core FFO guidance of $2.23 to $2.33 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 same-property NOI guidance | 2026 North America same-property NOI growth raised to 4.5% to 5.3%, midpoint 4.9%, with MH up 6.1% to 6.9% and RV up 0.2% to 1.8% | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Occupancy | Same-property adjusted blended occupancy of 98.8% for MH and RV, down 10 basis points year over year; MH and annual RV sites 97.9% occupied at June 30, 2026 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | About $4.1 billion in debt at a 3.3% weighted average interest rate with a 6.9-year weighted average maturity, and net debt to trailing twelve-month recurring EBITDA of 3.9x at June 30, 2026 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Park Holidays UK sale | Definitive agreement to sell the UK business for a base consideration of GBP 785.7 million, or about $1.04 billion, subject to UK Financial Conduct Authority approval and expected to close in the second half of 2026 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release and May 21, 2026 sale announcement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP results | Net loss attributable to common shareholders of $992.7 million, or $8.08 per diluted share, driven by a $1.1 billion non-cash UK valuation allowance; net income from continuing operations of $42.3 million, or $0.32 per diluted share | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Stock repurchases | $1.0 billion buyback program renewed May 27, 2026 through May 27, 2027; about 0.9 million shares repurchased in Q2 at $123.30 for $111.1 million, plus about 0.7 million shares through July 22, 2026 at $120.62 for $89.0 million | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio | 455 developed MH and RV properties with about 156,130 sites in the United States and Canada, plus 54 UK properties with about 22,030 sites classified within discontinued operations, at June 30, 2026 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | About 17.6x the 2026 Core FFO midpoint of $7.02, an FFO yield near 5.7%, a 3.63% dividend yield, 2.74x book value, and a forward PE near 44.92 distorted by discontinued operations | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $140.11 across 19 analysts, low $130 and high $155, median $139 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital $147 to $148, Colliers $150 to $145, Wells Fargo $142, Morgan Stanley $135, Barclays $146, Mizuho $137, Truist $138, BofA $139 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.38 million shares short, 2.72% of shares outstanding, 2.64 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $122.16, 200-day moving average near $125.93, 14-day RSI near 53.52, beta 0.79, 20-day average volume near 1.91 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Management | Charles D. Young, CEO since October 2025; Gary Shiffman, non-executive chairman; John McLaren, president and COO; Fernando Castro-Caratini, CFO in transition, with a permanent CFO search ongoing; Ileana McAlary, general counsel, appointed June 2026 | Sun Communities Q2 2026 earnings call and corporate governance materials | August 3, 2026 |
This SUI AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, interest-rate moves, the UK sale outcome, market moves, or macro conditions.
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