Constellation Brands, Inc. research snapshot
STZ AI stock analysis reads Constellation Brands as a high-quality imported beer franchise where Modelo Especial, Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria anchor most of the profit pool, but the stock is not a clean momentum setup. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $130.23 on July 31, 2026, with an implied market capitalization of about $22.24 billion. Q1 FY2027, reported July 1, 2026, beat consensus with comparable EPS of $3.43 versus $3.20, while net sales still declined year over year amid softer consumer trends and higher gas prices. The business keeps strong brand and route-to-market assets, but the investment case is limited by weak beer volumes, wine and spirits restructuring, tariff and consumer pressure, net debt near $10.4 billion, and a chart that remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$130.23
Market cap
$22.24 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Quality beer franchise, demand and leverage risk
Trend status
Weak trend below all major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Constellation owns a premium beverage alcohol portfolio, with U.S. rights to Corona and Modelo and beer representing the dominant profit engine. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand strength, import-beer shelf space, distributor relationships, marketing scale, and scarcity of U.S. rights to Mexican beer brands. | Medium-high |
| Management | Nicholas Fink became CEO in 2025. The Q1 FY2027 comparable EPS beat and reaffirmed guidance support his scorecard, but the beer volume and margin path is still being proven. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM net sales of $9.057 billion are down about 10% year over year, while Q1 FY2027 net income attributable to CBI rose to $653.8 million on a better gross margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $130.23 and TTM EPS near $10.48, the stock trades around 12.4x earnings with an 11.0x forward PE, a 3.16% dividend yield, and a market value near $22.24 billion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, near the lower end of its 52-week range, and needs a reclaim of the $131.80 to $138.12 zone to repair trend quality. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by beer volume softness, tariff and aluminum costs, gas price pressure on consumers, wine and spirits scale loss, high debt, rising short interest, and alcohol category moderation. | High |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for historical and current facts, lower confidence for share-price path because sentiment and category demand can reprice quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality is stronger than near-term investment certainty. The stock may be cheap if beer growth recovers, but it can remain a value trap if volumes and margins keep weakening. | Medium-low |
STZ AI stock forecast
The STZ AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain prediction. The financial-rigor model used the $130.23 cutoff close and TTM EPS near $10.48 with three-year EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. It produced a bullish value near $218, a base value near $149, and a bearish value near $89 before dividends. Consensus forward EPS of $11.80 for FY2027 and $12.39 for FY2028 implies a slow earnings recovery if beer volume stabilizes.
$195 to $225
More likely if beer depletion trends recover, Modelo and Corona regain volume momentum, tariff and gas price pressure fades, wine and spirits losses shrink, and investors re-rate STZ toward a mid-teens earnings multiple. Roth Capital holds a Top Pick at $209.
$140 to $160
More likely if EPS grows slowly toward the $11.80 to $12.39 consensus path, beer remains profitable but not high-growth, capital returns continue, and the stock earns a low-teens multiple while the chart rebuilds above the 50-day average.
$85 to $115
More likely if beer volumes keep falling, tariffs and aluminum costs pressure margins, wine and spirits restructuring fails to stabilize profit, debt limits buybacks, or the market assigns a single-digit earnings multiple. Barclays sits at $132 and BofA at $145.
STZ AI technical analysis
STZ AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $130.23 and public technical snapshots available at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The setup is weak: price is below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, RSI is neutral-to-weak near 41.8, ADX near 10 shows a weak trend, and the stock is much closer to its 52-week low than its 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $130.23 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $126.45 to $131.15 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis listed the 52-week low near $126.45 and the July 31 intraday low near $128.97. |
| Deeper support | $120 to $126 | Planning zone below the 52-week low. It is not a prediction and should be rechecked with live chart data. |
| Near resistance | $131.80 to $138.12 | Barchart and StockAnalysis placed the 20-day moving average near $131.80 and the 50-day near $138.12 on July 31, 2026. |
| 20-day moving average | $131.80 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $131.80, just above the cutoff close. |
| 50-day moving average | $138.12 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 50-day average near $138.12, above the cutoff close. |
| 200-day moving average | $145.31 | StockAnalysis and Barchart both reported the 200-day average near $145.31, well above the cutoff close. |
| Momentum | RSI about 41.8, Stochastic near 22.7 | Barchart showed 14-day RSI near 41.8 and 14-day stochastic %K near 22.65, neutral-to-weak rather than a confirmed bullish signal. |
| Volume | Around 1.8 million vs 2.1 million average | StockAnalysis showed July 31 volume near 1.79 million below the 20-day average near 2.10 million, so a reclaim of resistance needs stronger confirmation. |
| Volatility | Moderate staples volatility | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 26% and a 14-day ATR near $3.75, so earnings, tariffs, gas prices, and alcohol-demand headlines can still create gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $126.45 | A decisive break below the 52-week low would invalidate a short-term recovery setup and shift attention to lower support zones. |
STZ AI trading strategy
The STZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should combine live price data, earnings dates, tariff and gas price headlines, category data, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels before acting.
Wait for STZ to reclaim the $131.80 to $138.12 moving-average zone and hold it for more than one session, ideally with volume above the recent average.
A failed reclaim or close back below the 20-day moving average invalidates the short-term trend-following setup.
If STZ holds above the $126.45 to $131.15 support area after earnings pressure, compare the setup against beer depletion trends, EPS guidance, and free cash flow coverage.
Do not average down if the selloff is tied to accelerating beer volume decline, margin compression, or a guidance cut.
Track Modelo Especial dollar share, Corona and Pacifico trends, beer depletion growth, tariff and aluminum costs, wine and spirits margin, free cash flow, debt, dividends, and repurchases.
Reduce confidence when buybacks or dividends depend on leverage rather than stable beer cash flow.
Investment research summary
Constellation sells premium beverage occasions. Customers pay for brand trust, taste, identity, social use, and retail availability, while distributors and retailers benefit from fast-moving high-end beer brands.
The moat is strongest in Modelo and Corona brand equity, U.S. import rights, distributor relationships, shelf space, and marketing scale. It narrows if consumers trade down, drink less alcohol, or rivals win high-end beer occasions.
The thesis fails if beer volumes remain negative, tariffs, aluminum, and gas prices compress margins and demand, Hispanic consumer spending weakens, wine and spirits restructuring consumes capital, or debt limits flexibility.
Nicholas Fink inherited a business with strong beer assets and a more difficult category backdrop. The Q1 FY2027 comparable EPS beat and reaffirmed guidance are positive, but the management test is disciplined simplification, not growth rhetoric.
Premium beer still has attractive brand economics, but beverage alcohol faces moderation, health-conscious substitution, tariff risk, gas price pressure, and changing consumer occasions. STZ is not riding a clean secular growth wave.
At about 12.4x TTM EPS and 11.0x forward EPS, the stock embeds skepticism. Margin of safety depends on beer stabilization and cash conversion; without those, a low multiple alone is not enough.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STZ closing price | $130.23 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.24 billion, verified as $130.23 x 170.75 million shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 170.75 million shares outstanding | Google Finance STZ quote snapshot | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM net sales | $9,057 million, down 9.99% year over year | StockAnalysis.com income statement | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM segment net sales | Beer $8,364 million, Wine and Spirits $692.5 million | StockAnalysis.com financials segment breakdown | July 31, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net sales | $2,432.7 million for the quarter ended May 31, 2026 | Constellation Brands income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net income attributable to CBI | $653.8 million, diluted EPS $3.79, comparable EPS $3.43 vs consensus $3.20 | Constellation Brands income statement and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $96.6 million cash, $336.3 million short-term borrowings, $1,102.6 million current debt, and $9,094.9 million long-term debt at May 31, 2026 | Constellation Brands balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt | -$10,437 million, calculated as cash of $96.6 million minus total debt of $10,534 million | financial_rigor.py exact calculator | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow | $661.8 million, with $177.2 million capital expenditures | Constellation Brands cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 12.43x PE, 8.05% earnings yield, 2.70x PB, 12.13x P/FCF, 3.16% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 1, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | 11.00x forward PE, EV/EBITDA 10.01, EV/FCF 17.81, PEG 3.22, PS 2.46 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $170.83 across 24 analysts, low $115 and high $209, median $173 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 11 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 8 Hold, 2 Sell out of 24 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Roth MKM Top Pick $209, Bernstein $197, BMO $190, Needham $185, RBC $185, Citi $185, Evercore ISI $175, TD Cowen $174, UBS $168, J.P. Morgan $165, Piper Sandler $160, Morgan Stanley $158, Jefferies $157, Deutsche Bank $150, BofA $145, Barclays $132, Freedom Broker Hold $173 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 22, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.25 million shares short, 4.83% of shares outstanding, 3.17 days to cover, up from 7.50 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $2,694 million, capital expenditures of $859.4 million, free cash flow of $1,834 million over TTM | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2027 and FY2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate $9.10B with EPS $11.80, FY2028 revenue $9.27B with EPS $12.39 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $131.80, 50-day SMA near $138.12, 200-day SMA near $145.31, 14-day RSI near 41.8, 14-day ADX near 10.0 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This STZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, financial-rigor calculations, and scenario assumptions as of the data cutoff, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, policy, gas prices, or market sentiment change.
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