Constellation Brands, Inc. research snapshot
STZ AI stock analysis currently reads Constellation Brands as a high-quality imported beer franchise with Modelo Especial, Corona, Pacifico, and Victoria anchoring most of the profit pool, but the stock is not a clean momentum setup. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $131.76 on July 7, 2026, with an implied market capitalization of about $22.50 billion. The business has strong brand and route-to-market assets, while the investment case is limited by weak beer volumes, wine and spirits restructuring, tariff and consumer pressure, leverage, and a chart that remains below widely watched 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$131.76
Market cap
$22.50 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Quality beer franchise, demand and leverage risk
Trend status
Weak trend below major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Constellation owns a premium beverage alcohol portfolio, with U.S. rights to Corona and Modelo and beer representing the dominant profit engine. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand strength, import-beer shelf space, distributor relationships, marketing scale, and scarcity of U.S. rights to Mexican beer brands. | Medium-high |
| Management | Nicholas Fink became CEO in 2025, so the current scorecard is beer recovery, wine and spirits simplification, capital returns, tariff handling, and leverage discipline. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 net sales declined 10% to $9.139 billion, while Q1 FY2027 net sales declined to $2.433 billion and net income attributable to CBI rose to $653.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $131.76 and EPS near $10.48, the stock trades around 12.6x earnings with a 3.1% dividend yield and a market value near $22.50 billion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the lower end of its 52-week range, and needs a reclaim of the mid-$140s to repair trend quality. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by beer volume softness, tariff and aluminum costs, Hispanic consumer pressure, wine and spirits scale loss, high debt, and alcohol category moderation. | High |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for historical and current facts, lower confidence for share-price path because sentiment and category demand can reprice quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business quality is stronger than near-term investment certainty. The stock may be cheap if beer growth recovers, but it can remain a value trap if volumes and margins keep weakening. | Medium-low |
STZ AI stock forecast
The STZ AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain prediction. The financial-rigor model used the $131.76 cutoff close, EPS near $10.48, and three-year EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. It produced a bullish value near $211, a base value near $149, and a bearish value near $81 before dividends.
$195 to $215
More likely if beer depletion trends recover, Modelo and Corona regain volume momentum, tariff pressure is absorbed through pricing and productivity, wine and spirits losses shrink, and investors re-rate STZ toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$140 to $155
More likely if EPS grows slowly, beer remains profitable but not high-growth, capital returns continue, and the stock earns a low-teens multiple while the chart rebuilds above the 50-day average.
$75 to $90
More likely if beer volumes keep falling, tariffs and aluminum costs pressure margins, wine and spirits restructuring fails to stabilize profit, debt limits buybacks, or the market assigns a single-digit earnings multiple.
STZ AI technical analysis
STZ AI technical analysis uses the July 7, 2026 close of $131.76 and public technical snapshots available at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The setup is weak: price is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, RSI readings are neutral-to-weak rather than deeply oversold, and the stock is much closer to its 52-week low than its 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $131.76 | Latest verified close used for this page, dated July 7, 2026. |
| Near support | $126.45 to $131.15 | Google Finance listed the 52-week low near $126.45 and the July 7 intraday low near $131.15. |
| Deeper support | $120 to $125 | Planning zone below the 52-week low. It is not a prediction and should be rechecked with live chart data. |
| Near resistance | $139 to $145 | Investing.com, Barchart, and TipRanks technical snapshots put the 50-day and 200-day moving-average area roughly in this zone. |
| 50-day moving average | About $139 to $145 | Public snapshots varied by source, but all cited a 50-day average above the cutoff close. |
| 200-day moving average | About $141 to $146 | Public snapshots varied by source, but all cited a 200-day average above the cutoff close. |
| Momentum | RSI about 33 to 41 | TipRanks and ChartMill technical snapshots showed neutral-to-weak RSI readings, not a confirmed bullish momentum signal. |
| Volume | Around 2.2 million vs 2.5 million average | Google Finance showed July 7 volume below average volume, so a reclaim of resistance needs stronger confirmation. |
| Volatility | Moderate consumer staples volatility | STZ has lower beta than many growth stocks, but earnings, tariffs, alcohol-demand headlines, and analyst revisions can create large gaps. |
| Invalidation | Close below $126.45 | A decisive break below the 52-week low would invalidate a short-term recovery setup and shift attention to lower support zones. |
STZ AI trading strategy
The STZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should combine live price data, earnings dates, tariff headlines, category data, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels before acting.
Wait for STZ to reclaim the $139 to $145 moving-average zone and hold it for more than one session, ideally with volume above the recent average.
A failed reclaim or close back below the 50-day moving average invalidates the short-term trend-following setup.
If STZ holds above the $126.45 to $131.15 support area after earnings pressure, compare the setup against beer depletion trends, EPS guidance, and free cash flow coverage.
Do not average down if the selloff is tied to accelerating beer volume decline, margin compression, or a guidance cut.
Track Modelo Especial dollar share, Corona and Pacifico trends, beer depletion growth, tariff costs, wine and spirits margin, free cash flow, debt, dividends, and repurchases.
Reduce confidence when buybacks or dividends depend on leverage rather than stable beer cash flow.
Investment research summary
Constellation sells premium beverage occasions. Customers pay for brand trust, taste, identity, social use, and retail availability, while distributors and retailers benefit from fast-moving high-end beer brands.
The moat is strongest in Modelo and Corona brand equity, U.S. import rights, distributor relationships, shelf space, and marketing scale. It narrows if consumers trade down, drink less alcohol, or rivals win high-end beer occasions.
The thesis fails if beer volumes remain negative, tariffs and aluminum costs compress margins, Hispanic consumer demand weakens, wine and spirits restructuring consumes capital, or debt limits flexibility.
Nicholas Fink inherited a business with strong beer assets and a more difficult category backdrop. The management test is disciplined simplification, not growth rhetoric.
Premium beer still has attractive brand economics, but beverage alcohol faces moderation, health-conscious substitution, tariff risk, and changing consumer occasions. STZ is not riding a clean secular growth wave.
At about 12.6x EPS, the stock embeds skepticism. Margin of safety depends on beer stabilization and cash conversion; without those, a low multiple alone is not enough.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STZ closing price | $131.76 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market cap page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $22.50 billion, verified as $131.76 x 170.75 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 170.75 million shares outstanding | Google Finance STZ quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 net sales | $9.139 billion, cross-validated with Macrotrends at $9.139 billion | Constellation Brands FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2026 segment net sales | Beer $8.315 billion, Wine and Spirits $823.8 million | Constellation Brands FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net sales | $2.4327 billion for the quarter ended May 31, 2026 | Constellation Brands income statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 net income attributable to CBI | $653.8 million | Constellation Brands income statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $96.6 million cash, $336.3 million short-term borrowings, $1.1026 billion current debt, and $9.0949 billion long-term debt at May 31, 2026 | Constellation Brands balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 operating cash flow | $661.8 million, with $177.2 million capital expenditures | Constellation Brands cash flow statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 12.57x PE, 7.95% earnings yield, 2.47x PB, 3.13% dividend yield by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day average about $139 to $145 and 200-day average about $141 to $146, both above the cutoff close | Investing.com, Barchart, TipRanks technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
This STZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, financial-rigor calculations, and scenario assumptions as of the data cutoff, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, policy, or market sentiment change.
