State Street Corporation research snapshot
STT AI stock analysis reads State Street as a high-quality institutional servicing and asset-management franchise whose Q2 2026 results strengthened the earnings case, but not as a bargain after a roughly 63% one-year share-price gain. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, STT closed July 31 at $184.16 with a $50.59 billion market capitalization verified by financial_rigor.py. Q2 2026 revenue rose to $4.048 billion with $1.026 billion of net income and $3.65 diluted EPS, while assets under custody and/or administration reached $57.9 trillion and assets under management $6.3 trillion at June 30, 2026. The main offsets are fee compression, rate and market sensitivity, client concentration, and a valuation that now sits near fair value rather than at a wide margin of safety. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$184.16
Market cap
$50.59 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality custody franchise, valuation near fair value after a roughly 63% one-year gain
Trend status
Uptrend intact above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with momentum cooling from overbought to neutral-bullish
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | State Street earns fees from custody, fund administration, investment servicing, trading, data, software, and asset management for institutional clients, and Q2 2026 revenue grew 17.4% year over year. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from scale, regulatory trust, operating complexity, long client implementation cycles, data infrastructure, and embedded workflows across front, middle, and back office. | Medium-high |
| Management | Ron O Hanley has pushed the company toward Alpha, Global Advisors, cost discipline, and capital return. The key test is execution without letting technology investment dilute returns. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue was $4.048 billion, net income $1.026 billion, and diluted EPS $3.65, up from $3.448 billion, $630 million, and $2.17 in the year-earlier quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $184.16 and TTM EPS near $11.33, STT screens near 16.25x earnings, 2.05x book value, and 3.37x sales, with forward PE near 12.75x. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price holds above the 50-day and 200-day averages, but 14-day RSI near 58.88 has cooled from the overbought reading above 70 seen in early July 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate and tied to equity and bond market levels, rate moves, deposit mix, regulatory capital, expense control, fee compression, and Alpha technology execution. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported Q2 2026 figures, scale, valuation, analyst targets, and market data, but lower for forecast ranges because custody banks can reprice quickly when markets, rates, or client activity change. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | STT looks like a durable market-infrastructure business, but margin of safety is only moderate because the base scenario sits near the current price after a 63% one-year move. | Medium-high |
STT AI stock forecast
The STT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price target. The financial-rigor model used the $184.16 cutoff price, TTM EPS near $11.33, and three-year EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. It produced a bullish value near $276, a base value near $186, and a bearish value near $102 before dividends.
$265 to $290
More likely if custody and administration assets keep rising, fee revenue grows faster than expenses, net interest income stays firm, Alpha and data services gain adoption, and investors pay a higher multiple for strong EPS compounding near 15% a year.
$175 to $195
More likely if earnings compound at a mid-to-high single-digit pace near 8%, fee pressure offsets part of market appreciation, capital return continues, and the valuation settles near a low-teens earnings multiple.
$95 to $110
More likely if markets decline, client cash shifts reduce net interest income, fee compression accelerates, technology spending disappoints, or regulatory capital and expense pressure lower returns and compress the multiple toward 9x.
STT AI technical analysis
STT AI technical analysis uses public market data available at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock is in an uptrend because it trades above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but momentum has cooled from the overbought reading of early July, so a pullback toward moving-average support is possible even while the trend stays intact.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $184.16 | StockAnalysis closing snapshot for July 31, 2026, used as the cutoff market price, with after-hours around $185. |
| Near support | $179 to $183 | This zone covers the 5-day and 20-day moving-average area near $182 reported by Barchart. |
| Deeper support | $171 to $174 | StockAnalysis and Barchart placed the 50-day moving average near $171.32. |
| Major support | $155 to $160 | The 100-day moving average sits near $155.15, a wider demand zone below the 50-day average. |
| Near resistance | $186 to $192 | Just above the July 31 close and the after-hours level; follow-through needs volume and earnings confirmation. |
| Higher resistance | $198 to $215 | The median analyst target is near $200 and the highest near $215, based on S&P Global data from July 31, 2026. |
| 50-day moving average | About $171.32 | StockAnalysis and Barchart snapshots at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $139.85 | StockAnalysis and Barchart snapshots, with price trading about 32% above this level. |
| Momentum | Neutral-bullish | StockAnalysis and Barchart listed 14-day RSI near 58.88, down from the overbought reading above 70 seen in early July 2026. |
| Volume | About 2.5 million shares | StockAnalysis showed a 20-day average near 2.51 million and Barchart near 2.55 million shares. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart showed 20-day historic volatility near 28.2%, and StockAnalysis listed beta at 1.43. |
| Invalidation | Close below $171 | A decisive break below the 50-day moving-average zone would weaken the short-term trend setup and shift focus toward the 100-day area near $155. |
STT AI trading strategy
The STT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should combine live quotes, the next quarterly earnings release, custody asset trends, net interest income, expense guidance, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels before acting.
Look for STT to hold above the $179 to $183 short-term support zone on any pullback, ideally with fee revenue and net interest income confirming the market move.
A close below the $171 to $174 area at the 50-day average would invalidate the short-term trend-following setup.
If STT pulls back toward the 50-day average near $171, compare the price decline with changes in custody assets, AUM, deposit balances, expense guidance, and buyback pace.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically attractive if the decline is caused by weaker fee revenue, lower NII, technology cost overruns, or regulatory capital pressure.
Track AUC/A, AUM, servicing fees, management fees, markets revenue, net interest income, ROTCE, expense growth, CET1 capital, and share repurchases.
Reduce confidence when EPS growth depends more on market multiple expansion than on verified fee growth, operating leverage, and capital return.
Investment research summary
State Street is an operating backbone for institutional investors. Clients pay because custody, fund accounting, administration, trading, data, and compliance workflows are mission-critical and expensive to move. Q2 2026 servicing revenue of $3.242 billion shows the scale of that dependence.
The moat is built on global scale, regulatory trust, workflow integration, operational data, long implementation cycles, and the high cost of switching large institutional portfolios to another service provider, supported by $57.9 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration.
The thesis fails if fee pressure accelerates, market levels fall, rates reduce net interest income, Alpha execution disappoints, regulators demand more capital, or clients consolidate providers at lower pricing.
Ron O Hanley has focused State Street on institutional servicing, Global Advisors, Alpha, expense control, and shareholder returns. The open question is whether technology spending can keep producing operating leverage as competition in data and AI tools intensifies.
Asset owners continue to need scale, data, risk, and compliance infrastructure. That supports State Street, but the industry remains mature, price-sensitive, and exposed to market cycles, so growth depends mostly on share gains and data monetization rather than a rising industry tide.
At about 16.25x TTM EPS and 2.05x book value, STT is not priced like a distressed custody bank. The three-scenario model puts the base value near the current price, so margin of safety depends on EPS compounding and capital return rather than a cheap starting multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STT price and market capitalization | $184.16 close on July 31, 2026, and $50.59 billion market cap | StockAnalysis market cap page | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 274.70 million shares on StockAnalysis, down 3.77% year over year and 0.64% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $50.59 billion calculated as $184.16 x 274.70 million shares, matching reported market cap with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $4.048 billion revenue, $1.026 billion net income, $3.65 diluted EPS, and $1.389 billion operating income reported on July 16, 2026 | State Street Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Custody and management scale | $57.9 trillion AUC/A and $6.3 trillion AUM as of June 30, 2026, with roughly 51,000 employees | State Street Q2 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue near $15.02 to $15.06 billion, TTM net income near $3.22 billion, and TTM EPS near $11.33 across StockAnalysis statistics and quarterly data | StockAnalysis financials page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $13.944 billion in annual data, cross-checked against State Street annual report wording of approximately $14 billion | StockAnalysis financials page | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt source gap | StockAnalysis statistics listed cash and equivalents near $168.21 billion and total debt near $57.44 billion, while quarterly data listed cash and investments near $149.5 billion, so balance-sheet definitions differ across sources | StockAnalysis statistics and financials pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 16.25x PE, 2.05x PB, 3.37x PS, 12.44% ROE, 2.00% dividend yield, and 3.99% FCF yield, cross-checked by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis statistics page and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 16 analysts with an average price target of $198.75, low $150, and high $215, plus a FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate near $13.66 | StockAnalysis forecast page via S&P Global | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day average near $171.32 and 200-day average near $139.85 on StockAnalysis and Barchart snapshots | Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Momentum and volatility | 14-day RSI near 58.88, beta near 1.43, and 20-day average volume around 2.5 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics page and Barchart | August 2, 2026 |
This STT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, financial-rigor calculations, and scenario assumptions as of the data cutoff, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, policy, rates, or market sentiment change.
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