Steel Dynamics, Inc. research snapshot
STLD AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Steel Dynamics as a high-quality U.S. steel franchise that just delivered a record quarter. The stock closed at $251.26 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $36.01 billion, verified as $251.26 times 143.33 million shares. Q2 2026, reported July 20, 2026, delivered record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, net income of $534 million or $3.69 per diluted share, adjusted EBITDA of $921 million, and a 30% sequential jump in steel operating income, while the aluminum mill nearly doubled sheet shipments and is now expected to be EBITDA positive in the second half. Analysts carry a Buy consensus with a $270.08 average target. The offset is that the stock is up about 97% over 52 weeks and trades at roughly 22.8x trailing EPS and 1.75x sales, so the margin of safety depends on steel spreads, tariff policy, and aluminum execution holding up. The page presents scenario math, not a precise price promise, and is for information only.
Current price
$251.26
Market cap
$36.01 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Record Q2 execution with an accelerating aluminum ramp, but the stock now prices in a strong steel cycle
Trend status
Uptrend intact with price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, still below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Steel Dynamics is a vertically linked metals platform spanning steel operations, metals recycling, steel fabrication, and a ramping aluminum flat-rolled sheet business, with TTM revenue near $20.54 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost electric arc furnace production, scrap integration, value-added coating and fabrication pull-through, and utilization of about 90% versus roughly 81% for the domestic industry, though commodity steel pricing limits durable pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founder and Chairman-CEO Mark D. Millett pairs growth investment with buybacks and a rising dividend, and Q2 2026 showed a 30% sequential gain in steel operating income and a 13% three-year after-tax ROIC. The aluminum platform is now the key capital allocation test. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income was $534 million or $3.69 per diluted share versus $299 million a year ago, with record steel shipments and adjusted EBITDA of $921 million. First half 2026 net income was $938 million on sales of $11.3 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $251.26, StockAnalysis.com reports about 22.80x trailing EPS, 12.56x forward EPS, 1.75x sales, 3.83x book value, 37.69x free cash flow, and a 0.84% dividend yield. The stock is not cheap relative to its own history. | Medium |
| Technical trend | STLD closed above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on July 31, 2026, with 14-day RSI near 57 to 61 and 14-day ADX near 23, still below the $288.74 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are steel spread compression, import pressure, Section 232 policy change, fabrication margin timing, aluminum startup and relocation costs, electricity cost inflation, and multiple compression after a strong run. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the dataset is rich and the market cap math verified with zero deviation. Return confidence is lower because steel and aluminum earnings can swing sharply with prices and spreads. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | STLD is a quality cyclical, not a bond-like compounder. It needs either continued earnings confirmation or a larger margin of safety to justify the current valuation. | Medium |
STLD AI stock forecast
The STLD AI stock forecast is scenario math, not a price promise. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $251.26 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $16.61, a three-year framework with EPS growth of about 10% per year in the bullish case, 4% in the base case, and negative growth in a steel-cycle downturn points to roughly $100 to $115 in a bear case, $210 to $235 in a base case, and $310 to $345 in a bullish case before dividends.
$310 to $345
More likely if steel pricing and value-added spreads keep improving into 2027, record steel shipments continue, the fabrication backlog converts into cash, and the aluminum mill turns meaningfully EBITDA positive as utilization approaches the 650,000 metric ton capacity. EPS growth near 10% per year with an exit multiple near 14x produces this range.
$210 to $235
More likely if earnings normalize after a strong tariff and pricing period, EPS compounds at a mid single digit pace toward the FY2027 consensus near $18.86, and the market keeps STLD near a low teens forward multiple. This still implies downside from the July 31, 2026 close.
$100 to $115
More likely if steel spreads compress, imports rise, tariff support weakens, non-residential construction slows, the aluminum ramp costs more than guided, or investors re-rate STLD toward a single-digit cyclical trough multiple on weaker EPS.
STLD AI technical analysis
STLD AI technical analysis is bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $251.26 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $238, its 50-day near $248, its 100-day near $225, and its 200-day near $199, with 14-day RSI near 57 to 61 and 14-day ADX near 23. The $288.74 52-week high is the main overhead resistance. Volume and volatility readings come from Barchart and StockAnalysis.com.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $251.26 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close. The day range was $250.30 to $255.23. |
| Near support | $248 to $250 | The 50-day moving average near $248.44 and the July 31 intraday low near $250.30 form the first support cluster. |
| Next support | $224 to $238 | The 20-day moving average near $238.30 and the 100-day moving average near $224.96 sit below, with $225 as a zone that has held since the spring rally. |
| Deeper support | $198 to $200 | The 200-day moving average near $198.52 is the long-term trend line. A close below it would reset the multi-year uptrend. |
| Resistance | $255, then $288.74 | The July 31 intraday high near $255 is the first test, followed by the $288.74 52-week high from the recent run. |
| 52-week range | $119.89 to $288.74 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 52-week low and high, showing the stock is up about 97% from the low and still about 13% below its high. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $238.30, 50-day $248.44, 100-day $224.96, 200-day $198.52 | Barchart reported all four moving averages below price on July 31, 2026, confirming an aligned uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57 to 61 | StockAnalysis.com reported RSI near 57.33 and Barchart near 61.15 on the 14-day window, a firm but not overbought reading. |
| Volume | About 0.90M on July 31 vs 1.16M average | StockAnalysis.com showed July 31 volume near 0.90 million shares against a 20-day average near 1.16 million, so the pullback came on light volume. |
| Volatility | ATR near $8.44, 14-day historic volatility near 27% | Barchart reported a 14-day average true range near $8.44 and historic volatility near 27%, so position sizing should account for steel-price driven swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $238, then below $225 and $199 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $238 would weaken the short-term setup. A close below the 100-day near $225 and then the 200-day near $199 would turn the technical picture bearish. |
STLD AI trading strategy
The STLD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines steel-cycle confirmation, technical levels, Q2 2026 earnings evidence, and predefined invalidation points.
Watch for STLD to hold above the 50-day moving average near $248 and to reclaim the $255 July high on above-average volume toward the $288.74 52-week high, with steel pricing and value-added spreads still firm.
Use a daily close below the 20-day moving average near $238 or a failed test of $255 as a rules-based invalidation signal.
If STLD pulls back toward the $238 to $248 support cluster, compare the rebound against steel pricing, scrap costs, fabrication backlog conversion, and aluminum utilization and EBITDA progress before acting.
Do not average down if management turns cautious on demand, steel spreads reverse, the stock closes below the $225 100-day area, or the 200-day near $199 is lost.
Track Q3 steel pricing and spreads, steel shipments, fabrication backlog conversion, aluminum sheet shipments and EBITDA, buyback pace, dividend growth, and tariff policy including the 50% Section 232 tariff and the USMCA review.
Treat a quality steel operator as still cyclical. Position sizing should reflect steel price volatility, electricity cost inflation, and policy sensitivity.
Investment research summary
Steel Dynamics turns recycled scrap and other metallic inputs into steel products, fabrication products, and now aluminum flat-rolled sheet. Customers pay for reliable domestic supply, product quality, logistics, value-added processing, and timely availability in construction, automotive, energy, and industrial markets.
STLD combines low-cost electric arc furnace operations, internal scrap flows, value-added coating and fabrication pull-through, and high through-cycle utilization of about 90% versus roughly 81% for the domestic industry. The moat narrows when steel prices fall faster than costs or when excess capacity weakens spreads.
The thesis fails if investors mistake peak-cycle profitability for normal earnings, tariffs weaken or imports rise, non-residential construction slows, the aluminum ramp costs more than the guided $650 million to $700 million through-cycle EBITDA, or electricity cost inflation erodes the cost advantage.
Mark D. Millett co-founded the company and remains chairman and CEO. Management has a record of growth, buybacks, dividends, and a 13% three-year after-tax ROIC, but the aluminum platform is now the key capital allocation test after Q2 2026 losses and a relocated slab center.
STLD benefits from U.S. reshoring, infrastructure spending, data center and warehouse construction, and domestic steel policy, with a 50% Section 232 tariff supporting the industry. The U.S. aluminum sheet market carries a structural supply deficit of more than 1.4 million metric tons, which underpins the new mill. The industry remains cyclical and policy-sensitive.
At about $251.26, the stock trades near 22.8x trailing EPS and about 15x the FY2026 consensus of $16.61, after a roughly 97% 52-week run. The base case implies limited margin of safety if earnings normalize and the market applies a lower cyclical multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STLD stock price | $251.26 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $36.01 billion, verified as $251.26 x 143.33 million shares with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics and manual market cap check | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Net sales of $6.1 billion, operating income of $700 million, net income of $534 million or $3.69 per diluted share | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA and shipments | Adjusted EBITDA of $921 million and record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment operating income | Steel $721 million, steel fabrication $85 million, metals recycling $48 million, aluminum startup loss of $33 million plus a $16 million non-cash impairment | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 steel pricing details | Average external selling price up $105 sequentially to $1,298 per ton; average ferrous scrap cost up $16 to $412 per ton | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | Net income of $938 million or $6.47 per diluted share on net sales of $11.3 billion | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release | July 20, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $18.18 billion, up 3.63%, with net income of $1.19 billion or $7.99 per diluted share, down 22.87% | StockAnalysis.com financials and FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM results | TTM revenue of $20.54 billion, net income of $1.61 billion, and EPS of $11.02 | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 143.33 million, down 3.89% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 22.80x trailing EPS, 12.56x forward EPS, 1.75x sales, 3.83x book value, 37.69x free cash flow, 0.84% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $270.08, median $266, low $221, high $310 across 12 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Strong Sell out of 12 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $23.52B with adjusted EPS $16.61, FY2027 revenue $23.36B with adjusted EPS $18.86 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 22, 2026 |
| Post-Q2 analyst actions | BMO Buy $296, Wells Fargo Buy $275, KeyBanc Buy $262, Morgan Stanley Hold $260, J.P. Morgan Hold $260; Goldman Sachs later reinstated coverage with a Buy and $300 target | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TheFly news | July 22, 2026 |
| Liquidity | $2.0 billion as of June 30, 2026, including $800 million of cash and investments plus a $1.2 billion revolver | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and equivalents of $567.71 million, total debt of about $4.18 billion to $4.39 billion, and net debt of about $3.61 billion to $3.83 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Returns | Book value of $9.36 billion or $65.59 per share, ROE of 17.57%, ROIC of 12.44%, and a 13% three-year after-tax ROIC cited by management | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q2 2026 buybacks of $200 million and dividends of $77 million; first half 2026 buybacks of $315 million per the earnings release and $350 million per the call, a source gap | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 20, 2026 |
| Aluminum platform | Flat-rolled sheet shipments of 53,000 metric tons and hot band production of 84,000 metric tons in Q2 2026, with the third cold mill started in July for the full 650,000 metric ton capacity | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 21, 2026 |
| Aluminum through-cycle EBITDA | $650 million to $700 million from the mill plus $40 million to $50 million from the recycling platform at nameplate capacity | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Utilization | STLD mills operated near 90% versus an estimated 81% for the domestic steel industry in Q2 2026 | Steel Dynamics Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.55 million shares short, 2.48% of shares outstanding, 2.55 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $238.30, 50-day SMA near $248.44, 100-day SMA near $224.96, 200-day SMA near $198.52, 14-day RSI near 57 to 61, 14-day ADX near 23 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This STLD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated data cutoff, and they can be wrong. Steel and aluminum prices, tariff policy, demand, and management execution can change results quickly after new earnings, market moves, or macro conditions.
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