Freeport-McMoRan Inc. research snapshot
FCX AI stock analysis currently reads Freeport-McMoRan as a scarce large-cap copper, gold, and molybdenum producer with strong exposure to electrification, grid investment, U.S. reshoring, data-center power demand, and tightening copper supply. The improvement since mid-2026 is real: the second-quarter earnings beat and the Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up on schedule changed the operating narrative. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the stock closed at $62.63 on July 31, 2026, market cap verified near $90.03 billion, and TTM valuation was about 30.70x EPS and 3.48x sales. The FCX AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based, with copper prices, Grasberg recovery, U.S. leaching projects, energy costs, and valuation discipline driving the range.
Current price
$62.63
Market cap
$90.03 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
High-quality copper franchise with improving execution, strong commodity leverage, and a long growth runway
Trend status
Technical setup improved to neutral-to-bullish after the 50-day average crossed above the 200-day, while the long-term copper thesis stays intact
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Freeport sells essential copper, gold, and molybdenum from large-scale mines in North America, South America, and Indonesia, with earnings tied to realized metal prices and operating volumes. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scarce tier-one copper deposits, scale, reserve life, processing know-how, permitting barriers, infrastructure, and operating relationships, not from consumer-style pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Kathleen Quirk has deep FCX tenure and commodity-cycle experience. The current test is safe Grasberg restoration, disciplined U.S. growth projects, and shareholder returns without overcommitting at peak metal prices. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 1.81% to $25.915 billion and net income to common rose to about $2.2 billion. Q2 2026 revenue was $7.029 billion and net income to common was $984 million, with adjusted net income of $1.1 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $62.63, FCX screens near 30.70x TTM EPS, 4.36x book, 51.10x free cash flow per share, 3.48x sales, and a 0.96% dividend yield, with a forward PE near 18.56x. | High |
| Technical trend | Daily technical readings turned constructive in late July 2026, with the 50-day average crossing above the 200-day, RSI back to neutral, and the stock trading above the 200-day moving average, with six-month support near $54.46 and resistance near $71.63. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are copper price reversal, Grasberg ramp-up delays, Indonesia political terms, energy and sulfuric acid costs, mine safety events, capex overruns, and FCF compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because source data is rich and cross-checked. Forecast confidence is lower because FCX earnings are highly sensitive to commodity prices and mine execution. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FCX is a strategically important copper franchise, and second-quarter execution improved the case, but the current stock price still requires sustained high copper prices or continued smooth Grasberg recovery to fully justify the TTM multiple. | Medium |
FCX AI stock forecast
The FCX AI stock forecast uses the $62.63 price reference, TTM EPS near $2.04, an analyst consensus of $3.00 for 2026 EPS, and an audited three-year scenario model. The mechanical model points to about $100 in a bullish case, $54 in a base case, and $15 in a bearish case before dividends using TTM earnings, and higher ranges when forward earnings are applied. The wide spread is intentional because copper equities can look cheap near cycle peaks and expensive near troughs.
$95 to $115 before dividends
More likely if copper stays near or above $6 per pound, Grasberg continues its phased recovery toward 65% utilization in late 2026 and 80% by mid-2027, U.S. leaching projects add low-capital production, gold by-product credits remain strong, and investors value FCX closer to a high-20s forward earnings multiple.
$65 to $80 before dividends
More likely if copper prices remain supportive but not euphoric, 2026 adjusted EPS tracks toward the $3.00 consensus, Grasberg timing normalizes gradually, unit net cash costs stay near the $1.90 guidance, and the market values FCX near a low-20s forward earnings multiple.
$28 to $42 before dividends
More likely if copper prices fall, Grasberg delays persist beyond current guidance, energy or acid costs rise, by-product credits weaken, free cash flow remains thin after capex, and investors re-rate FCX toward a mid-teens commodity multiple.
FCX AI technical analysis
FCX AI technical analysis is neutral-to-bullish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. FCX closed at $62.63 on July 31, 2026. AltIndex listed RSI(14) at 52.6, the 50-day simple moving average near $63.00, the 200-day simple moving average near $62.20, and an overall Strong Buy signal with 5 buy, 3 neutral, and 1 sell across 9 signals, helped by a golden cross where the 50-day average sits above the 200-day. StockAnalysis independently showed a 50-day moving average near $63.59, a 200-day near $57.10, and RSI near 51.12. AltIndex showed six-month support near $54.46 and resistance near $71.63, close to the 52-week high of $72.28. The chart has improved from the mid-2026 downtrend, and the stock now needs to hold above the moving averages and reclaim the low-$60s resistance zone to confirm the new range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $62.63 | Freeport investor relations listed the July 31, 2026 close at $62.63, down $0.81 on the day, with volume of 10.79 million shares. |
| 52-week range | $35.15 to $72.28 | Freeport investor relations reported the 52-week low near $35.15 and the 52-week high near $72.28, showing how far the stock has moved in the past year. |
| Six-month support | Near $54.46 | AltIndex identified the six-month support area near $54.46. A decisive break would weaken the improved trading range. |
| Near resistance | $60 to $64 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average references from AltIndex ($63.00) and StockAnalysis ($63.59) and the zone bulls need to hold after the late-July breakout. |
| Upper resistance | Near $71.63 to $72.28 | AltIndex identified six-month resistance near $71.63, close to the 52-week high of $72.28, which caps the upper edge of the current range. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $63.00, 200-day near $62.20 | AltIndex shows the 50-day above the 200-day, a golden cross. StockAnalysis shows the 50-day near $63.59 above a 200-day near $57.10. The price is above both references. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) near 52.6, MACD bullish | AltIndex reports RSI(14) at 52.6 in neutral territory and MACD(12,26) at 0.2 with a buy signal, so momentum is constructive but not overbought. |
| Volume | 10.79 million shares on July 31, 2026 | The 20-day average volume is near 14.8 million shares, so recent activity is below the recent average and follow-through above the moving averages matters. |
| Volatility | Watch copper, gold, Q2 momentum, and Grasberg ramp-up | FCX can move sharply when copper futures, gold by-product credits, Indonesia updates, or quarterly sales guidance change. |
| Invalidation | Close below $54.50, then failed hold of $60 to $62 | A break below six-month support would reverse the improved setup. A failed hold of the low-$60s after the golden cross keeps the recovery under review. |
FCX AI trading strategy
The FCX AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with copper prices, Grasberg operating progress, U.S. leaching technology, gold by-product credits, capex, free cash flow, and balance-sheet discipline.
Watch for FCX to hold above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $62 to $64 and then reclaim the upper resistance zone near $71, while copper prices stay firm and quarterly commentary confirms Grasberg progress, U.S. leaching gains, and stable unit costs.
A failed hold of the $60 to $62 zone followed by a close below $54.50 should reduce trend confidence, especially if copper weakens or management lowers sales guidance again.
If FCX pulls back toward the low-$50s support area without a structural decline in copper demand or a new Grasberg setback, compare the lower price with long reserve life, improving cash generation, and organic U.S. growth options.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if free cash flow remains weak after capex, debt rises, or project economics depend on copper prices staying near cycle highs.
Track copper and gold prices, consolidated copper sales, Grasberg Block Cave ramp-up, unit net cash costs, energy and sulfuric acid inputs, Bagdad expansion timing, El Abra studies, leaching output, capex, cash, debt, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that FCX is a high-quality cyclical miner, not a predictable software compounder or a guaranteed inflation hedge.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Freeport because modern power grids, construction, electronics, transport, defense, and industry need copper, while gold and molybdenum provide valuable by-product and specialty-metal economics. The business converts scarce ore bodies, permits, processing assets, and mine expertise into commodity-linked cash flow.
The moat is strongest in hard-to-replace copper deposits, long reserve life, scale at Morenci, Cerro Verde, and Grasberg, processing infrastructure, technical mine planning, government relationships, and the difficulty of permitting new copper supply. The moat does not remove cyclicality because FCX cannot control copper or gold prices.
The thesis fails if copper demand disappoints, if new supply loosens the market, if Grasberg ramp-up slips again, if Indonesia terms become less favorable, if safety or weather events interrupt production, or if capex absorbs cash while investors pay a peak-cycle multiple.
Kathleen Quirk became CEO in 2024 after decades at FCX and prior CFO responsibility, and Maree Robertson now serves as CFO. The current test is whether the team can restore Grasberg safely toward full capacity by the end of 2027, advance U.S. growth projects only when economics are attractive, and keep capital returns tied to real free cash flow.
Copper sits on a favorable long-term demand curve from electrification, grid upgrades, AI data centers, renewables, transmission, military systems, and industrialization. The offset is that mine supply, substitution, China demand, tariffs, and macro cycles can still drive painful price swings.
At $62.63, FCX trades near 30.70x TTM EPS and 51.10x TTM free cash flow per share, which prices in a constructive copper environment and the improving Grasberg outlook. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward support while copper fundamentals remain intact, or if FCX proves that Grasberg and U.S. growth can lift cash flow toward the forward earnings path without excessive capex.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCX quote reference | $62.63 close on July 31, 2026, with 10.79 million shares of volume | Freeport-McMoRan investor relations stock quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $90.03 billion reported and $90.19 billion calculated from $62.63 x 1.44 billion shares, a 0.17% variance | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis FCX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.44 billion shares, with 1.443 billion diluted weighted-average shares in Q2 2026 | FCX Q2 2026 results release and StockAnalysis financials | July 23, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $25.915 billion, cross-checked against Macrotrends and StockTitan with less than 1% variance | StockAnalysis FCX financials | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income to common | About $2.2 billion, cross-checked across StockAnalysis, StockTitan, and AlphaQuery with less than 1% variance | StockAnalysis FCX financials | July 29, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 financial results | $7.029 billion revenue, $984 million net income to common, $0.68 diluted EPS, $2.0 billion operating cash flow, and $1.1 billion capital expenditures | FCX Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating volumes | 710 million pounds copper sales, 123 thousand ounces gold sales, and 25 million pounds molybdenum sales | FCX Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| 2026 sales outlook | Approximately 3.1 billion pounds copper, 650 thousand ounces gold, and 93 million pounds molybdenum, including 750 million pounds copper in Q3 2026 | FCX Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $4.080 billion cash and cash equivalents and $9.386 billion total debt at June 30, 2026, with net debt of $2.1 billion excluding $3.2 billion of PTFI downstream processing debt | FCX Q2 2026 results release | July 23, 2026 |
| TTM valuation and balance-sheet metrics | EPS $2.04, book value per share $14.36, FCF per share $1.23, dividend $0.60, and net cash of -$6.28 billion by StockAnalysis debt definition | StockAnalysis FCX statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | RSI(14) 52.6, 50-day SMA $63.00, 200-day SMA $62.20, golden cross, and overall Strong Buy with 5 buy, 3 neutral, and 1 sell signals | AltIndex FCX technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Six-month support near $54.46 and resistance near $71.63 | AltIndex FCX technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 23 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $71.73, with 2026 EPS consensus near $3.00 and 2027 EPS consensus near $4.09 | StockAnalysis FCX forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Management | Kathleen Quirk is president and CEO, joined Freeport in 1989, became president in 2021, board member in 2023, and CEO in 2024; Maree Robertson is executive vice president and CFO | Freeport-McMoRan executive officers | August 2, 2026 |
This FCX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026, and may be wrong if copper prices, mine operations, costs, financing conditions, regulation, or market sentiment change.
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