Nucor Corporation research snapshot
NUE AI stock analysis currently reads Nucor Corporation as a high-quality but cyclical steel producer whose 2026 earnings recovery is being weighed against steel price, construction demand, trade policy, and capital project execution risk. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $227.42, market capitalization was about $51.79 billion, and the stock was below short-term moving averages but still above longer-term trend support. This page uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price prediction, and is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$227.42
Market cap
$51.79 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Quality cyclical, valuation watch
Trend status
Short-term pullback inside a long-term uptrend
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Nucor is a scaled electric arc furnace steelmaker with a broad North American product mix, strong credit ratings, and a long capital return record. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from scale, scrap procurement, mill network breadth, customer relationships, low-cost production, and domestic supply advantages rather than a software-like lock-in. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has emphasized through-cycle returns, project investment, dividends, and buybacks, but capital spending must earn returns across the cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales rose to $9.496 billion and net earnings attributable to stockholders rose to $743 million, showing a sharp rebound from Q1 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At roughly 22.6x TTM EPS and 1.5x TTM sales, the stock already reflects a meaningful recovery, so margin of safety depends on the durability of 2026 earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day averages, which makes the setup mixed rather than cleanly bullish. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because steel pricing, imports, construction demand, raw material costs, energy costs, and capital projects can change earnings quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for the filed numbers and market-cap math, but lower for any forward return estimate. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium because the company is strong, yet the stock is tied to a cyclical profit pool and a re-rated share price. | Medium |
NUE AI stock forecast
The NUE AI stock forecast uses a three-scenario range around the $227.42 close. The model uses TTM EPS of about $10.08, Q1 2026 earnings momentum, the company Q2 2026 guidance range, and different terminal PE assumptions. It should be treated as a planning framework, not a price promise.
$300 to $340
More likely if Q2 2026 earnings convert into durable full-year momentum, steel mills keep pricing power, recent projects add earnings, imports stay constrained, and the stock retakes the $242 to $271 resistance band with volume.
$200 to $235
More likely if 2026 earnings improve but investors apply a normal cyclical multiple because steel prices, construction demand, and raw material costs remain uneven.
$95 to $150
More likely if steel prices roll over, imports or demand weaken, project returns disappoint, margins compress, and the stock loses its 200-day trend support after the data cutoff.
NUE AI technical analysis
NUE AI technical analysis uses the $227.42 July 7, 2026 close, the $270.90 52-week high, and third-party moving-average snapshots available by the July 8, 2026 cutoff. The setup is a pullback after a strong run: weak versus short-term averages, stronger versus long-term trend support.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $227.42 | Latest verified closing price used for this page as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $219 to $224 | Recent closing-price support from early July trading. A clean break would weaken the short-term setup. |
| Near resistance | $238 to $243 | Cluster around the 50-day and 20-day moving-average snapshots. A close back above this band would improve momentum. |
| Major resistance | $270.90 | 52-week high reported by multiple quote pages. This is the key overhead level if the recovery resumes. |
| 50-day moving average | About $237.75 | Barchart snapshot showed price below the 50-day average, supporting a short-term caution signal. |
| 200-day moving average | About $181.96 | Barchart snapshot showed price above the 200-day average, supporting the longer-term uptrend reading. |
| Momentum | Mixed | Below the 20-day and 50-day averages but above the 100-day and 200-day averages. |
| Volume | About 1.5 million shares | The July 7 volume was slightly below the 50-day average of about 1.7 million shares in the MarketWatch snapshot. |
| Volatility | ATR near 3.5% of price | Barchart showed a 14-day ATR near $7.86, so position sizing matters more than headline direction. |
| Invalidation | Close below $219, then $182 | A close below $219 weakens the tactical setup. A break below the 200-day average would damage the longer-term trend. |
NUE AI trading strategy
The NUE AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a cyclical industrial stock. It should be paired with fresh quote data, earnings dates, steel price checks, and predefined risk limits.
Wait for NUE to reclaim the $238 to $243 resistance band and hold above it with volume before treating the pullback as resolved.
A failed reclaim or a close below $219 should invalidate the short-term trend-following setup.
If NUE retests $219 to $224 without a new thesis break, compare the price reaction with steel pricing, Q2 earnings expectations, and management commentary.
Do not average down if steel pricing, imports, construction demand, or margin commentary deteriorates at the same time.
Track Q2 2026 earnings, mill volumes, realized steel prices, project ramp contribution, cash returns, debt, capex, and nonresidential construction demand.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by policy headlines or commodity price spikes without matching earnings evidence.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Nucor for reliable domestic supply of steel mills, steel products, and raw materials used in construction, manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, automotive, and industrial end markets.
Nucor has scale, a large electric arc furnace footprint, recycled scrap expertise, a broad product network, customer relationships, and domestic trade-policy advantages. Its moat is real but cyclical, not immune to steel price swings.
The thesis can fail if steel prices fall, imports rise, construction demand weakens, raw material and energy costs rise, major projects under-earn, or investors pay a peak-cycle multiple for temporary profits.
Management has maintained a long dividend record, continued buybacks, and invested in capacity and downstream products. The key test is whether new assets earn acceptable returns when the cycle normalizes.
Domestic manufacturing, infrastructure, energy investment, reshoring, and lower-emission electric arc furnace production help the long-term story, while steel remains tied to commodity supply, construction demand, and policy.
The stock trades near 22.6x TTM EPS and 1.5x TTM sales using verified inputs. The base-case model does not show a large margin of safety unless 2026 earnings prove more durable than a normal steel-cycle rebound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NUE closing price | $227.42 on July 7, 2026 | MarketWatch quote recap | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $51.79 billion, verified as $227.42 x 227.740950 million shares | SEC 10-Q share count and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 227,740,950 shares at April 4, 2026 | Nucor Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $32.494 billion | Nucor FY2025 results, cross-checked with Macrotrends | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders | $1.744 billion | Nucor FY2025 results, cross-checked with third-party summaries | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net sales | $9.496 billion | Nucor Q1 2026 results and SEC 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net earnings attributable to stockholders | $743 million, or $3.23 diluted EPS | Nucor Q1 2026 results and SEC 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $2.481 billion at April 4, 2026 | Nucor Q1 2026 release, SEC 10-Q, and Q1 presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Total debt | $7.124 billion at April 4, 2026 | Nucor Q1 2026 10-Q debt sum and Q1 presentation | July 8, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | $4.70 to $4.80 expected diluted EPS | Nucor Q2 2026 earnings guidance | July 8, 2026 |
| Key valuation checks | 22.56x TTM PE, 2.43x PB, 1.52x sales, and 0.98% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py using SEC and quote inputs | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average about $237.75, 200-day average about $181.96, 52-week range $131.32 to $270.90 | Barchart and Macrotrends technical snapshots | July 8, 2026 |
This NUE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 8, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, steel prices, market prices, company events, policy conditions, or macro conditions change.
