Bullish case
$36.00 to $42.00
More likely if SLM shows stable or improving credit quality, loan origination growth with disciplined underwriting, net interest margin stabilizes, and the stock re-rates toward a normal consumer finance PE multiple.
SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) research snapshot
SLM AI Stock Analysis
SLM AI stock analysis reads SLM Corporation (Sallie Mae) as a specialty consumer finance company that originates private education loans and funds them through retail deposits at Sallie Mae Bank. The page uses a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest close was $26.00 as of July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $4.89 billion, and the core decision point was whether the low valuation multiple compensates for credit cycle and regulatory risk after a Q2 2026 earnings miss. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$26.00
Market cap
$4.89 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Cyclical value with credit cycle risk
Trend status
Short-term rebound above 50-day and 200-day averages after a 52-week decline
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. SLM has decades of public filings, analyst coverage, and sector-level credit data, but the credit cycle outlook requires judgment beyond financial statements.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is value trap anchoring because the stock still looks cheap on PE and book, which can mask rising charge-offs. The analysis separates verified financial data from forward credit judgments and flags analyst disagreement on the cycle.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. The stock can be useful for research screens, but position decisions require first-party filings, live chart data, credit quality trends, and personal risk constraints.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SLM originates private education loans and funds them through Sallie Mae Bank retail deposits. Revenue depends on net interest margin, loan volume, and fee income. | Medium |
| Moat | Brand recognition in student lending, a regulated banking charter, school relationships, and decades of underwriting data provide moderate competitive protection. | Medium |
| Management | Management should be judged by credit discipline, deposit cost control, capital allocation between buybacks and loan growth, and regulatory navigation after the Q2 miss. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue of $1.65 billion grew 14.66% and net income rose 23.57%, but Q2 2026 revenue and net income missed estimates while net interest income dipped and expenses rose. | Medium |
| Valuation | Valuation at 7.2x trailing PE and 2.2x book looks cheap, supported by 30.3% ROE. Margin of safety depends on whether credit losses stay manageable. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price rebounded above the 50-day ($23.85) and 200-day ($24.54) moving averages with RSI near 61. Use live moving averages, support, resistance, and volume before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can fail if credit losses spike, government loan programs expand, deposit costs compress margins, or regulatory changes hurt private lending economics. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for qualitative mapping and quote math. Lower confidence for forward returns given credit cycle uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty because the page gives a framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
SLM AI stock forecast
SLM AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The SLM AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the July 31, 2026 close of $26.00 rather than a point target. The bullish case requires stable or improving credit quality, sustained loan demand, and better net interest margin; the base case assumes steady-state performance; the bearish case assumes credit cycle deterioration becomes visible through charge-offs and margin pressure.
Base case
$27.00 to $32.00
More likely if credit metrics stay manageable, the bank reduces charge-off pressure, and the stock trades around current valuation while investors wait for earnings and credit data.
Bearish case
$15.00 to $21.00
More likely if these risk paths appear: charge-offs rise above historical norms, deposit costs compress margins, regulatory changes hurt private lending economics, and technical support breaks after the data cutoff.
SLM AI technical analysis
SLM AI Technical Analysis
SLM AI technical analysis starts from the July 31, 2026 close of $26.00 and the 52-week range of $17.77 to $33.17. The 50-day moving average is $23.85 and the 200-day moving average is $24.54. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, live momentum and volume should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $26.00 | Close as of July 31, 2026, used as the reference for this page. |
| Near support | $23.50 to $24.60 | Zone around the 50-day ($23.85) and 200-day ($24.54) moving averages. Treat as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $27.50 to $28.55 | The analyst average target is $28.55. A close above this zone would strengthen short-term momentum. |
| 52-week low | $17.77 | The lowest price reached in the past 52 weeks. A break below this level would be a significant technical event. |
| 52-week high | $33.17 | The highest price reached in the past 52 weeks. Acts as a long-term resistance reference. |
| 50-day moving average | $23.85 | Price is currently above this level, a positive short-term signal. Confirm with live chart data before acting. |
| 200-day moving average | $24.54 | Price is currently above this level. Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Positive but not overbought | RSI near 61 with price above both moving averages. Volume needs to confirm any breakout. |
| Volume | Below the recent average | Recent daily volume ran below the 20-day average of about 3.19 million shares, which can limit breakout conviction. |
| Volatility | Moderate monitoring priority | Beta is about 0.95. Use position sizing that can tolerate moderate daily movement for this ticker. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23.85 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the short-term setup. |
SLM AI trading strategy
SLM AI Trading Strategy Framework
The SLM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or credit data checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for SLM to hold above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and push through the $27.50 to $28.55 resistance zone with volume that confirms buyer demand and positive credit data.
A close below the 50-day moving average at $23.85 or a failed breakout should invalidate the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If SLM falls into the support band near the moving averages without a thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings release, credit quality trends, and net interest margin data.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the credit cycle.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for private education lending: charge-off trends, loan origination volume, net interest margin, deposit cost trajectory, and regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by macro headlines without matching credit quality evidence.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
SLM originates private education loans to students and families, funded through retail deposits at Sallie Mae Bank. Revenue depends on the spread between loan yields and deposit costs plus fee income.
Moat
Brand recognition in student lending, a regulated banking charter, relationships with educational institutions, and decades of education loan underwriting data.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if charge-offs rise above historical norms, government loan programs crowd out private lending, deposit costs compress margins, or new fintech lenders disrupt the education lending market.
Management
Management should be judged by credit discipline, deposit growth quality, capital allocation between buybacks and loan growth, and the ability to navigate regulatory changes in student lending after the Q2 miss.
Industry trend
College costs continue rising, driving demand for private student loans, but the industry faces structural competition from government loan programs and potential regulatory shifts.
Valuation and margin of safety
Valuation at 7.2x trailing PE and 2.2x book looks undemanding against a 30.3% ROE, but margin of safety depends on credit cycle stability and the regulatory environment rather than current multiples.
Source-backed data
SLM Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLM price | $26.00 | Cross-validated Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis, close as of July 31, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.89 billion, verified as $26.00 x 187.95 million shares with 0.07% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 7.24 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification from Yahoo data | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.59 | Cross-validated Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $11.83 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| ROE (TTM) | 30.33% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.69 billion | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $720.58 million | StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Total cash (mrq) | $4.64 billion | Cross-validated Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $5.84 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend yield | 2.00% ($0.52 per share) | Cross-validated Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation range | Bullish $39.7 / Base $29.3 / Bearish $17.6 (3-year horizon) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario valuation | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average target $28.55 | Cross-validated Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis (11 analysts) | August 3, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This SLM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, credit conditions, or macro factors change.
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