The J. M. Smucker Company research snapshot
SJM AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads The J. M. Smucker Company as a defensive consumer staples business with leading coffee, peanut butter, fruit spread, frozen handheld, and pet food brands, strong free cash flow, and a rising dividend, but not a clean compounder. The stock closed at $119.26 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $12.75 billion, verified as $119.26 times 106.88 million shares with a 0.03% deviation. FY2026, reported June 9, 2026, delivered net sales of $9.0509 billion up 4%, adjusted EPS of $9.15 down 10%, free cash flow near $1.2 billion up from $816.6 million, and $720 million of debt repayment, while GAAP results still showed a $138.7 million net loss after impairment charges on the Sweet Baked Snacks reporting unit and the Hostess trademark. Management guided FY2027 net sales down 3% to 4%, adjusted EPS of $9.75 to $10.25, and free cash flow near $1.0 billion, and the Board raised the quarterly dividend 2% to $1.12 on July 17, 2026. The main execution risk remains Hostess, which the Wall Street Journal criticized in July 2026 for shelf life and changing consumer habits. This page presents scenario math, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$119.26
Market cap
$12.75 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Defensive value and income with execution risk
Trend status
Constructive recovery above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SJM sells repeat-purchase food and pet categories with strong household brands, but FY2027 guidance calls for net sales to decline 3% to 4% as pricing eases and volume has not yet returned to growth. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, shelf access, category leadership in coffee, peanut butter, frozen handhelds, and pet food, licensed coffee relationships, recipes, and scale purchasing, but private label and commodity cost pass-through limit pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | Mark Smucker is chair, president, and CEO, and Tucker Marshall is CFO. The test is whether management can stabilize Hostess, restore volume growth, keep debt falling, and fund the dividend. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2026 net sales were $9.0509 billion, operating cash flow about $1.5 billion, free cash flow about $1.2 billion, and debt repayment $720 million, while GAAP net loss was $138.7 million after impairment charges. | High |
| Valuation | At $119.26, the stock trades near 11.9x FY2027 adjusted EPS, about 11.0x free cash flow per share, 2.29x book value, and a dividend yield near 3.76%. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is above both the 50-day moving average of $111.38 and the 200-day moving average of $104.50, with RSI near 56.15 in neutral territory. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by Hostess execution, sweet baked snacks decline, coffee volume pressure, commodity costs and tariffs, leverage, private label, and consumer trade-down. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high and the math cross-validated. Forward-return confidence is lower because the key variable is execution quality, not missing financial data. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | SJM looks more like a defensive value and income candidate than a high-certainty growth compounder until volume/mix and Hostess performance improve. | Medium |
SJM AI stock forecast
The SJM AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed price target. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $119.26, the FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $10.00, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $75, a base area near $127, and a bullish area near $168 before dividends. The dividend can matter for total return, but it does not remove integration, leverage, or volume risk.
$160 to $170
More likely if Uncrustables keeps growing, coffee volume stabilizes after pricing, pet food holds, Hostess sales declines narrow, free cash flow stays near $1.0 billion or better, and the market re-rates SJM toward a low-to-mid teens earnings multiple.
$120 to $135
More likely if FY2027 adjusted EPS lands near the $10.00 midpoint, sales decline as guided, debt paydown continues, the dividend stays covered, and the market keeps SJM near an 11x earnings multiple.
$70 to $80
More likely if Hostess stays structurally impaired, coffee volume keeps falling, margins compress on commodity and tariff costs, free cash flow falls below guidance, or category maturity and leverage force an 8x multiple.
SJM AI technical analysis
SJM AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, based on the July 31, 2026 close of $119.26. StockAnalysis.com shows the stock above its 50-day moving average of $111.38 and its 200-day moving average of $104.50, with RSI near 56.15, beta near 0.25, and a 52-week range of $88.25 to $127.65. The practical reading is an intact recovery with support at the moving averages and resistance near the analyst price target and the 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $119.26 | StockAnalysis.com reported the July 31, 2026 close at $119.26 and a market cap near $12.75 billion. |
| Near support | $111 to $112 | The 50-day simple moving average of $111.38 sits here and is the first tactical support zone. |
| Deeper support | $104 to $105 | The 200-day simple moving average of $104.50 marks the recovery line. A close below it would weaken the trend. |
| Near resistance | $123 to $125 | The analyst consensus price target is $123.94, so this zone is the first meaningful test above price. |
| Upper resistance | $127.65 | This is the 52-week high and the strongest overhead level on the chart. |
| 50-day SMA | $111.38 | StockAnalysis.com reports this reference below price, supporting a constructive short-term signal. |
| 200-day SMA | $104.50 | Price holding well above the long-term average supports the recovery thesis. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.15 | Neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for upside. |
| Volume | Watch 1.5M shares | StockAnalysis.com reports 20-day average volume near 1.54 million shares. Breakouts are stronger when volume confirms. |
| Volatility | Low beta, event-sensitive staples stock | Beta near 0.25, but earnings on August 26, 2026, coffee costs, tariff news, and Hostess updates can still move the stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $104.50 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average would weaken the recovery setup and shift focus to lower support. |
SJM AI trading strategy
The SJM AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It combines a defensive dividend stock setup with strict checks on debt, free cash flow, category volume, Hostess progress, and the August 26, 2026 earnings date.
Watch for SJM to hold above the $111 to $112 area and close above the $123 to $125 resistance zone. Confirmation improves if volume rises and FY2027 EPS guidance is confirmed by Q1 results on August 26, 2026.
Define risk before entry. A close below $104.50 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point for the recovery setup.
If SJM pulls back toward the $111 to $112 moving-average area without a guidance cut, compare dividend yield, free cash flow coverage, net debt reduction, coffee margin pressure, and Hostess sales before treating the pullback as value.
Do not rely on dividend yield alone. A yield can be offset by lower earnings, weaker volume/mix, or additional impairment risk.
Track U.S. Retail Coffee pricing and volume, Uncrustables growth, pet food profit, Sweet Baked Snacks sales, Away From Home demand, FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and debt repayment.
Update scenario ranges after the August 26, 2026 earnings report. The base case requires cash flow discipline and signs that the Hostess drag is narrowing.
Investment research summary
SJM sells branded food and pet products that households buy repeatedly: coffee, peanut butter, fruit spreads, frozen sandwiches, snack cakes, dog snacks, cat food, and away-from-home products. Customers pay for habit, trust, taste, convenience, availability, and pet-owner confidence.
The moat is moderate. Brand memory, retailer shelf space, category leadership, licensed coffee relationships, and supply chain scale matter, but private label, commodity inflation, changing nutrition preferences, and promotional pressure limit pricing power.
The thesis fails if the Hostess acquisition stays structurally impaired, coffee pricing damages volume, Uncrustables growth cannot offset mature categories, debt restricts flexibility, or retailers and consumers force margin concessions.
Mark Smucker leads a family-name company with a long operating history and 25 consecutive fiscal years of dividend growth. The management score depends on measurable capital allocation: debt reduction, brand investment, integration discipline, dividend coverage, and avoiding value-destructive acquisitions.
Packaged food is defensive but mature. Better pockets include at-home coffee, frozen convenience, pet food, and away-from-home channels. Harder pockets include highly processed sweet snacks, categories exposed to GLP-1 and health concerns, and products that rely mainly on pricing rather than volume growth.
At roughly 11.9x FY2027 adjusted EPS and about 11.0x free cash flow per share, SJM has valuation support if cash flow holds. The margin of safety is conditional because leverage, Hostess execution, and the FY2027 sales decline justify a lower multiple than faster staples peers.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SJM price | $119.26 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis SJM quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.75 billion, verified as $119.26 x 106.88 million shares with 0.03% variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 106.88 million shares | StockAnalysis SJM statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net sales | $9.0509 billion, matching StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends at $9.051 billion | J. M. Smucker FY2026 Q4 and full-year release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS | $9.15, down 10% year over year | J. M. Smucker FY2026 Q4 and full-year release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 GAAP net income | Net loss of $138.7 million and diluted loss per share of $1.30, matching StockAnalysis.com | J. M. Smucker FY2026 Q4 and full-year release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 free cash flow | About $1.2 billion from the company release; StockAnalysis.com reports $1.156 billion trailing free cash flow | J. M. Smucker FY2026 Q4 and full-year release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2027 outlook | Net sales expected to decrease 3% to 4%, adjusted EPS of $9.75 to $10.25, free cash flow near $1.0 billion, and capital expenditures of $325 million | J. M. Smucker FY2026 Q4 and full-year release | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment sales mix | FY2026 sales: Coffee $3.3049B, Frozen Handheld and Spreads $1.8539B, Pet Foods $1.6000B, Sweet Baked Snacks $971.3M, Away From Home $879.0M, Other $441.8M | J. M. Smucker FY2026 reportable segments table | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend raised 2% to $1.12 from $1.10, annual rate $4.48, yield 3.76%, ex-dividend date August 14, 2026 | PRNewswire dividend increase release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $58.6 million cash and about $6.96 billion debt from the company balance sheet; StockAnalysis.com reports total debt of $7.089 billion | J. M. Smucker FY2026 release and StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Forward PE 11.93, PS 1.41, PB 2.29, P/FCF 11.02, dividend yield 3.76%, verified with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis SJM statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day SMA $111.38, 200-day SMA $104.50, RSI 56.15, beta 0.25, 52-week range $88.25 to $127.65 | StockAnalysis SJM statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 19 analysts with an average price target of $123.94 | StockAnalysis SJM forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
This SJM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, cash flow, interest rates, commodity costs, tariffs, consumer demand, or market valuation multiples change.
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