Silicon Motion Technology Corporation research snapshot
SIMO AI stock analysis currently reads Silicon Motion as a leading merchant NAND flash controller supplier benefiting from client SSD, AI PC, mobile storage, and early enterprise storage demand, but trading at a premium after a large re-rating. The July 10, 2026 close was $326.35, with market capitalization near $11.07 billion on 33.91 million ADS. FY2025 revenue was about $885.6 million and GAAP net income was $122.64 million, while Q1 2026 revenue jumped to a record $342.1 million. Trailing EPS of about $5.03 implies a trailing P/E near 65x, so the stock already discounts substantial growth and leaves limited valuation margin of safety. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$326.35 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
About $11.07 billion by price and ADS shares-outstanding math
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-quality NAND controller franchise with strong AI and PCIe Gen5 momentum, but a demanding valuation after a large rally
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a multi-month breakout, with price near the upper end of the 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Silicon Motion sells NAND flash controllers used in client SSDs, eMMC and UFS mobile storage, module-maker designs, and expanding enterprise storage platforms. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on controller IP, multi-NAND support, design-in switching costs, and merchant scale rather than brand pricing power. Captive controller efforts by large memory makers remain a structural check. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Wallace Kou has long led the company through NAND cycles, PCIe transitions, and product expansion into enterprise platforms. Capital returns include dividends and a previously authorized repurchase program. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose about 10 percent to $885.6 million and GAAP net income reached $122.64 million. Q1 2026 revenue surged 105 percent year over year to $342.1 million, while free cash flow remained weak as inventory and working capital rose. | High |
| Valuation | At $326.35, financial_rigor.py calculated about 64.88x trailing EPS of $5.03 and about 13.35x book value using MarketBeat BVPS of $24.44. The average analyst price target near $246 sat below the cutoff price. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was above the calculated 50-day average near $280.65 and the 200-day average near $151.95, leaving a strong intermediate uptrend after a sharp advance from the 52-week low of $70.12. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the stock combines customer concentration, NAND cyclicality, Taiwan geopolitics, working-capital intensity, elevated valuation, and beta near 1.70. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported data and calculation inputs are well supported. AI cannot determine future controller share, NAND pricing, hyperscaler demand, or the multiple investors will pay. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium certainty. Business quality and recent momentum are constructive, but the price leaves little room if growth or margins disappoint. | Low-medium |
SIMO AI stock forecast
The SIMO AI stock forecast is a scenario framework, not a certain AI price prediction. It uses a three-year sensitivity around the $326.35 cutoff price and a forward EPS starting point of about $8.48 reported by MarketBeat. The model is useful for showing how much growth and multiple support the current price, not for predicting a future quote.
$850 to $950
More likely if PCIe Gen5 client SSD share expands, AI PC and mobile storage demand stays firm, enterprise controllers ramp, margins hold near the high 40s, and investors sustain a premium growth multiple. The audited three-year sensitivity produced about $939 using 35 percent EPS growth and a 45x multiple on the $8.48 EPS base.
$400 to $460
More likely if revenue compounds at a solid but not extreme pace, gross margins stay healthy, and the valuation multiple contracts from the trailing extreme. The sensitivity produced about $440 using 20 percent EPS growth and a 30x multiple.
$150 to $190
More likely if NAND customers cut orders, captive controllers reclaim share, inventory corrects, free cash flow stays weak, or investors apply a mid-cycle multiple. The sensitivity produced about $177 using 5 percent EPS growth and an 18x multiple.
SIMO AI technical analysis
SIMO AI technical analysis uses the $326.35 July 10, 2026 close and one-year Yahoo Finance daily bars through that session. The calculated 50-day average was about $280.65, the 200-day average about $151.95, RSI about 51.2, and 20-day average volume about 864,440 shares. MarketBeat reported beta of 1.70 and a 52-week range of $70.12 to $355.00. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so confirm every level before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $326.35 close on July 10, 2026 | Last verified closing quote used for this page. Confirm the live quote before using any level. |
| Near support | $300 to $315 | Recent pullback and open-area support near the July 10 session lows and prior consolidation. |
| Secondary support | $270 to $285 | This zone centers on the calculated 50-day moving average and is the first larger trend filter after a sharp rally. |
| Major support | $145 to $160 | The calculated 200-day average near $151.95 is the broader trend line after the multi-month advance. |
| Near resistance | $337 to $355 | The June 22, 2026 all-time high area near $336.90 and the 52-week high of $355.00 are the first upside references. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $280.65; 200-day about $151.95 | Price above both averages keeps the intermediate and longer-term trend constructive at the cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI about 51.2 on Yahoo daily closes | Momentum was near neutral at the cutoff after a large rally, so overbought risk can reappear quickly on another thrust higher. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 864,440 shares | Breaks through resistance are more credible when volume is above this recent average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.70 | SIMO has moved more than the broader market historically, so position sizing and earnings-event risk matter. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $270 | A sustained loss of the 50-day area would weaken the intermediate uptrend and warrant a fresh review of support near the 200-day zone. |
SIMO AI trading strategy
The SIMO AI trading strategy is a rules-based educational framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines technical confirmation with reported business data and explicit invalidation levels. Pineify tools can help turn these conditions into chart alerts or a testable Pine Script strategy.
Wait for SIMO to hold above the $300 to $315 zone and reclaim or extend through $337 to $355 with volume above the recent average, then check whether controller unit growth, gross margin, and guidance still support the move.
Do not treat a single gap day as confirmation. A failed breakout or a close back below $300 should reduce confidence.
If price stabilizes near $270 to $285 around the 50-day average, compare the setup with the next earnings release, NAND customer commentary, inventory levels, and free cash flow trends.
Define loss limits before entry. A lower price after a large rally does not by itself make a high-multiple semiconductor name inexpensive.
Track revenue growth, gross margin near the high 40s, GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, free cash flow, cash plus restricted cash, inventory, share count, top-customer concentration, and PCIe Gen5 plus enterprise controller ramps.
Lower the rating if revenue growth decelerates while inventory rises, cash continues to fall, or large customers shift more controllers in-house.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Silicon Motion for controller silicon that manages NAND flash in SSDs, phones, PCs, modules, and embedded storage. The company is the leading independent merchant supplier of these controllers rather than a pure memory manufacturer.
The moat comes from controller design expertise, firmware, multi-vendor NAND support, customer qualification cycles, and scale in the merchant channel. It is technical and relationship based, and it can narrow if major NAND makers expand captive controller programs.
The thesis can fail if PC or phone demand cools, customers cut orders after inventory builds, captive controllers reclaim sockets, Taiwan supply or geopolitics disrupt operations, free cash flow stays negative through the growth phase, or the valuation multiple resets after the 2025 to 2026 re-rating.
Wallace Kou has led Silicon Motion for many years through cycle troughs, product transitions, and a failed prior acquisition attempt by MaxLinear. Recent capital allocation includes dividends, product investment in PCIe Gen5 and enterprise platforms, and a $50 million repurchase authorization disclosed in early 2025.
AI PCs, higher-performance client SSDs, smartphone storage upgrades, and data-center storage create a multi-year demand backdrop for advanced controllers. The industry remains cyclical because NAND pricing, channel inventory, and OEM build plans still dominate short-term results.
At roughly $11.07 billion of market capitalization versus about $886 million of FY2025 revenue and $5.03 of trailing EPS, SIMO prices in strong continued growth. The light debt load is a balance-sheet positive, but weak free cash flow and a price above the average analyst target leave limited valuation margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIMO price | $326.35 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart API | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.07 billion, verified as $326.35 x 33.91 million ADS | Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, and Pineify calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding (ADS) | 33.91 million ADS | Yahoo Finance key statistics and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | About $885.6 million, up roughly 10 percent year over year | Silicon Motion FY2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $122.64 million | Yahoo Finance financials and MarketBeat | July 12, 2026 |
| Trailing EPS and valuation | EPS about $5.03; trailing P/E about 64.88x; P/B about 13.35x | MarketBeat SIMO quote page and Pineify calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating snapshot | Revenue $342.1 million; non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.58; cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash $210.9 million | Silicon Motion Q1 2026 earnings materials | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | FY2025 free cash flow about $6.3 million; Q1 2026 FCF about -$49.5 million | Macrotrends SIMO free cash flow | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 50-day about $280.65; 200-day about $151.95; RSI about 51.2; beta about 1.70 | Yahoo Finance daily bars and MarketBeat beta | July 12, 2026 |
This SIMO page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Markets, prices, financial results, and technical levels can change quickly; verify current information and consider a qualified financial professional before acting.
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