Silicon Motion Technology Corporation research snapshot
SIMO AI stock analysis currently reads Silicon Motion as a leading merchant NAND flash controller supplier in the middle of a rapid transformation from a consumer-focused controller maker into a diversified storage-solutions business spanning AI data centers, edge devices, and automotive. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, SIMO closed at $253.60 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $8.60 billion on 33.91 million ADS. Q2 2026 revenue reached a record $451.0 million, up 127% year over year, with 50.2% gross margin and GAAP diluted EPS of $3.99, and management guided Q3 revenue to $519 to $541 million while expecting 2026 revenue to more than double year over year. Trailing EPS of about $8.54 puts the stock near 30x trailing earnings, while trailing twelve month free cash flow was negative near $120 million as inventory and working capital absorbed cash, and the stock pulled back sharply in July before rebounding after earnings. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$253.60 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$8.60 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Record NAND controller and storage-solutions momentum across AI data center, edge, and automotive, with a demanding valuation and negative free cash flow
Trend status
Below the 50-day average after a sharp pullback from the 2026 highs, but still well above the 200-day average of the multi-quarter uptrend
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Silicon Motion sells NAND flash controllers and complete storage solutions across client SSDs, mobile eMMC and UFS, enterprise MonTitan SSDs, and Ferri automotive and boot drive products. | High |
| Moat | The moat rests on controller IP, multi-vendor NAND relationships, design-in switching costs, DRAM-less enterprise boot drive technology, and automotive certification, not brand pricing power. Captive controller and storage efforts by memory makers remain a structural check. | Medium-high |
| Management | Wallace Kou has led the company through NAND cycles, the failed MaxLinear deal, and a pivot into enterprise, AI, and automotive storage. Capital returns include dividends and a $50 million buyback authorized in early 2025, while insiders sold modestly in recent months. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue hit a record $451.0 million, up 127% year over year, with 50.2% gross margin and $3.99 GAAP diluted EPS. Management guides 2026 revenue to more than double year over year, but trailing twelve month free cash flow is negative near $120 million as inventory builds. | High |
| Valuation | At $253.60, financial_rigor.py calculated about 29.7x trailing EPS of $8.54 and about 8.2x book value near $30.87. The 2026 consensus EPS of about $8.71 puts the forward multiple near 29x, and the average analyst target near $347.50 sits above the price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close was below the 50-day average near $286.85 after a sharp pullback from the $336.90 to $355.00 highs, but well above the 200-day average near $164.87, leaving the intermediate trend stretched and the longer trend intact. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the stock combines NAND cycle exposure, smartphone and PC demand weakness, customer concentration, inventory build, negative free cash flow, Taiwan geopolitics, beta near 1.73, and a one-year move of more than 230%. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported results, guidance, balance sheet, market cap math, and technical inputs are well supported. AI cannot determine future NAND pricing, customer orders, MonTitan ramp timing, or the multiple investors will pay. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. Business quality and momentum are constructive, but the price leaves little room if growth, margins, or free cash flow disappoint, and the stock is prone to large swings. | Low-medium |
SIMO AI stock forecast
The SIMO AI stock forecast is a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. It uses a three-year sensitivity around the $253.60 cutoff price and a forward EPS starting point of about $8.71, the 2026 consensus non-GAAP estimate. The model shows how much growth and multiple support the current price, with audited outputs of a bullish area near $595, a base area near $331, and a bearish area near $139.
$540 to $650
More likely if NAND scarcity persists through 2027, MonTitan reaches 5% to 10% of revenue exiting 2026 and scales in 2027, Ferri and enterprise boot drive growth continues, gross margin stays near 50%, and investors hold a premium multiple near 35x on much higher EPS. The audited three-year model produced about $595 using 25% EPS growth and a 35x multiple on the $8.71 base.
$290 to $370
More likely if 2026 revenue more than doubles as guided, gross margin holds near 50%, operating margin exceeds 30% exiting the year, EPS compounds in the mid-teens, free cash flow recovers as inventory normalizes, and the multiple settles near 25x. The model produced about $331 using 15% growth and a 25x multiple.
$115 to $165
More likely if NAND prices correct, customers cut orders after inventory builds, captive controllers reclaim share, smartphone and PC demand weakens further, free cash flow stays negative, or investors apply a mid-cycle multiple. The model produced about $139 using flat EPS and a 16x multiple.
SIMO AI technical analysis
SIMO AI technical analysis uses the $253.60 July 31, 2026 close and one-year price context. StockAnalysis showed a 50-day average near $286.85, a 200-day average near $164.87, RSI about 45, and 20-day average volume about 940,000 shares, while MarketBeat reported a 52-week range of $71.35 to $355.00 and beta near 1.70. This static page does not fetch live chart data, so confirm every level before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $253.60 close on July 31, 2026 | Last verified closing quote used for this page. Confirm the live quote before using any level. |
| Near support | $240 to $250 | The $250 round number and the July 31 session low near $250 form the first demand zone after the pullback. |
| Secondary support | $209 to $215 | The 50-day range low near $209.68 is the next reference ahead of the $200 level, and a hold there would keep the longer uptrend intact. |
| Major support | $160 to $170 | The calculated 200-day average near $164.87 is the broader trend line after the multi-quarter advance. |
| Near resistance | $273 to $290 | The July 31 session high near $273.94 and the 50-day average near $286.85 cap the first upside band; reclaiming the 50-day would improve the setup. |
| Major resistance | $330 to $355 | The 50-day range high near $336.90 and the 52-week high of $355.00 are the main upside references. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $286.85; 200-day about $164.87 | Price sits below the 50-day and above the 200-day, a mixed but not broken picture after the drawdown. |
| Momentum | RSI about 45 on StockAnalysis data | Momentum is neutral to slightly weak, so a base likely needs time to form before another sustained leg higher. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 940,000 shares | The July 31 session traded about 1.53 million shares, above the recent average, so both the selloff and the rebound saw elevated participation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.70 to 1.73 | SIMO has moved much more than the broader market and the 52-week range spans $71.35 to $355.00, so position sizing and earnings-event risk matter. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $209 to $215 | A sustained loss of the 50-day range low would weaken the intermediate trend and put the 200-day area near $165 under review. |
SIMO AI trading strategy
The SIMO AI trading strategy is a rules-based educational framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines technical confirmation with reported business data and explicit invalidation levels. Pineify tools can help turn these conditions into chart alerts or a testable Pine Script strategy.
Wait for SIMO to reclaim and hold the $273 to $290 zone on volume above the recent average, then check that Q3 revenue lands near the $519 to $541 million guide, MonTitan ramps, and gross margin stays near 50%.
Do not treat a single rebound day as confirmation. A failed reclaim of the 50-day area or a close back below $240 should reduce confidence.
If price stabilizes near $240 to $250 or $209 to $215 without new business or balance-sheet damage, compare the setup with Q3 guidance, NAND pricing commentary, inventory, and free cash flow trends.
Define loss limits before entry. A lower price after a more than 230% one-year rally does not by itself make a 30x trailing earnings stock inexpensive.
Track revenue growth, gross margin near 50%, GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, free cash flow, inventory, cash plus restricted cash, bank loans, top-customer concentration, MonTitan progress toward 5% to 10% of revenue, and Ferri and boot drive share.
Lower confidence if revenue growth decelerates while inventory keeps building, free cash flow stays deeply negative, or large customers shift more controllers in-house.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Silicon Motion for NAND flash controllers and complete storage solutions that manage data in SSDs, phones, PCs, modules, automotive systems, and enterprise and AI storage. The company is the leading independent merchant controller supplier and is expanding from controller chips into higher-ASP turnkey solutions.
The moat comes from controller design expertise, firmware, multi-vendor NAND supply relationships, customer qualification cycles, DRAM-less enterprise boot drive technology, and automotive certification. It is technical and relationship based, and it can narrow if major NAND makers expand captive programs or if the NAND shortage eases and competitors copy the solution model.
The thesis can fail if NAND prices correct and customers cut orders, smartphone or PC demand falls faster, captive controllers reclaim sockets, inventory builds force writedowns, free cash flow stays deeply negative, MonTitan or boot drive ramps slip, or the valuation multiple resets after the 2026 re-rating.
Wallace Kou has led Silicon Motion for many years through NAND cycles, the failed MaxLinear acquisition, and now a pivot into enterprise, AI, and automotive storage. Recent capital allocation includes dividends, heavy R&D and tape-out spending, a small bank loan to fund inventory, and a $50 million buyback authorization from early 2025, with modest insider selling in recent months.
The AI data center buildout has tightened NAND supply and lifted pricing, and Silicon Motion supplies controllers across client, mobile, automotive, and enterprise storage. Management expects NAND scarcity to persist until around 2028, which supports pricing power but also constrains consumer unit volumes.
At roughly $8.6 billion of market capitalization versus $1.31 billion of TTM revenue and $8.54 of trailing EPS, SIMO trades near 30x trailing earnings with negative trailing free cash flow. The price sits below the average analyst target near $347.50, but the market still prices in strong continued growth and leaves limited margin of safety if execution or the NAND cycle disappoints.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIMO price | $253.60 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and MarketBeat quote pages | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.60 billion, verified as $253.60 x 33.91 million ADS with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding (ADS) | 33.91 million ADS, up 0.37% year over year | StockAnalysis share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $451.0 million, up 32% Q/Q and 127% Y/Y; GAAP diluted EPS $3.99; non-GAAP diluted EPS $2.43; gross margin 50.2%; non-GAAP operating margin 23.1% | Silicon Motion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | Revenue $793.1 million; GAAP net income $202.9 million; GAAP diluted EPS $5.97; non-GAAP diluted EPS $4.01 | Silicon Motion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue $519 to $541 million, up 15% to 20% Q/Q and 114% to 124% Y/Y; non-GAAP gross margin 50.0% to 51.0%; non-GAAP operating margin 27.5% to 28.5% | Silicon Motion Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue $885.63 million, up 10.21% year over year; net income $122.64 million, up 37.41% | StockAnalysis financials and Silicon Motion FY2025 release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $1.31 billion; net income $289.77 million; EPS $8.54; gross margin 48.87%; operating margin 16.31% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about -$120.5 million; FY2025 free cash flow about $6.3 million | StockAnalysis cash flow data | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash $181.8 million at June 30, 2026; inventory $673.0 million; bank loans $59.2 million; shareholders equity $1,046.8 million; book value per ADS $30.87 | Silicon Motion Q2 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | Trailing PE about 29.7x; forward PE near 29x on 2026 consensus EPS of about $8.71; PB about 8.2x; PS about 6.5x; dividend yield about 0.78% | StockAnalysis statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with average price target $347.50, range $145 to $450; recent targets include Wedbush $400, BofA $450, Needham $355, Susquehanna $350, and Craig-Hallum $325 | StockAnalysis forecast and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 50-day average about $286.85; 200-day average about $164.87; RSI about 45; 20-day average volume about 940,000 shares; beta about 1.70 to 1.73 | StockAnalysis statistics and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and capital return | Annual dividend $2.00 per ADS paid quarterly; ex-dividend August 6, 2026; payable August 20, 2026; $50 million buyback authorized February 5, 2025 | Silicon Motion dividend press release and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
This SIMO page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong, and the SIMO AI forecast, technical levels, and valuation math can all change quickly with NAND pricing, customer orders, inventory, and market conditions. Verify current information and consider a qualified financial professional before acting.
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