Seagate Technology Holdings plc research snapshot
STX AI stock analysis reads Seagate Technology as the strongest operator it has been in over a decade, after a record fiscal 2026 and a beat-and-raise June quarter that was reported on July 28, 2026. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, STX closed at $856.13 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization of $194.34 billion, verified as price times 227.00 million shares. FY2026 revenue rose 34% to $12.20 billion with a 45.58% gross margin, $3.18 billion net income, and record free cash flow of $3.11 billion. Q4 FY2026 revenue was $3.6 billion, up 48% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin at 52.7%, non-GAAP EPS of $5.71, and free cash flow above $1.1 billion at a 31% margin. Management guided September-quarter revenue to $4.1 billion plus or minus $100 million, roughly 50% operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS of $7.30 plus or minus $0.20, and data center demand now represents about 89% of exabyte shipments. The case is constrained by a rich 61.6x trailing PE, a 52-week move of about 481%, customer concentration in cloud, a still-cyclical hardware market, and a stock that pulled back from a June high of $1,145 before recovering after earnings. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$856.13
Market cap
$194.34 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
AI storage cycle leader, valuation stretched
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day average, but below the 50-day average after a deep pullback from the June high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Seagate sells mass-capacity storage into data center, cloud, and edge workloads, with FY2026 revenue up 34% to $12.20 billion and Q4 FY2026 free cash flow margin of 31%, the strongest quarterly cash generation in over a decade. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from HAMR-based Mozaic areal density leadership, manufacturing scale, nearline customer qualification, long-term supply agreements that allocate most nearline exabytes into calendar 2028, and deep hyperscale relationships. | Medium-high |
| Management | Dave Mosley as chair and CEO and Gianluca Romano as CFO have delivered 13 consecutive quarters of non-GAAP gross margin expansion, record free cash flow, debt reduction from about $5 billion to $3.6 billion, and disciplined supply and value-based pricing. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 34% to $12.20 billion, gross margin reached 45.58%, net income was $3.18 billion with GAAP EPS of $13.90, and free cash flow hit a record $3.11 billion at a 25.46% margin. | High |
| Valuation | At $856.13, STX screens at about 61.6x trailing GAAP EPS, 23.9x forward non-GAAP EPS, 15.9x sales, and 62.6x free cash flow, so valuation depends heavily on the FY2027 consensus EPS of $35.80 being achieved. | Medium |
| Technical trend | STX closed at $856.13 on July 31, 2026, well above its 200-day average near $518 but below its 50-day average near $890 after a deep pullback from the June 18 high of $1,145, with RSI near 50. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by HDD cyclicality, cloud-customer concentration, possible inventory digestion, very high expectations after a 481% 52-week gain, high beta of 2.07, and execution risk in Mozaic 4+ and Mozaic 5+ ramps. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for company-reported results, market snapshots, analyst targets, and moving averages. It is lower for valuation durability because the market has already repriced the AI storage thesis aggressively. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The company quality signal has improved faster than investment certainty. STX can keep working if earnings compound toward consensus, but the downside case is large if multiples or pricing normalize. | Medium |
STX AI stock forecast
The STX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price target. The financial-rigor model anchored on the FY2027 consensus non-GAAP EPS of $35.80 at the $856.13 cutoff price produced a bullish value near $1,856, a base value near $1,106, and a bearish value near $570 over three years before dividends. The base case lines up with the consensus analyst target of $1,106.
$1,750 to $1,950
More likely if nearline HDD demand stays tight, cloud commitments extend through 2029, Mozaic 4+ and Mozaic 5+ ramps stay on schedule, price per exabyte keeps rising, free cash flow funds more debt reduction and buybacks, and investors keep a premium multiple on AI storage exposure.
$1,050 to $1,160
More likely if FY2027 EPS near the $35.80 consensus is delivered, revenue keeps growing sequentially through the fiscal year, margins hold at elevated levels, and the stock holds a roughly 22x forward multiple in line with the consensus target.
$520 to $620
More likely if HDD orders normalize, cloud customers digest inventory, pricing weakens, Mozaic execution disappoints, margins compress from the 52.7% peak, export or legal costs rise, or the market values STX like a cyclical hardware company again at a 15x multiple.
STX AI technical analysis
STX AI technical analysis uses public market data at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock remains in a powerful long-term advance above its 200-day moving average near $518, but the short-term chart shows a deep June to July pullback from the $1,145 high, followed by a sharp rebound after the July 28 earnings report. Price is below the 50-day moving average near $890, so the short-term trend is still in repair even though the long-term uptrend is intact.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $856.13 | StockAnalysis close at July 31, 2026, after a 0.52% gain; the stock rebounded from a July 28 low near $699 following the Q4 FY2026 beat-and-raise. |
| Near support | $810 to $820 | This zone matches the July 27, 2026 close near $817 and the round-number area where buyers returned before earnings. |
| Deeper support | $748 to $765 | This covers the July 28 and July 29 closes near $747 to $764. A break below it would open the door to the July 28 intraday low near $699. These are not predictions and should be rechecked against live chart data. |
| Near resistance | $890 to $900 | The 50-day moving average is near $890.36, so this is the first overhead zone the stock must reclaim to confirm short-term trend repair. |
| Higher resistance | $920 to $940 | The July 22 and July 23 highs near $921 to $936 form the next upside zone before the all-time-high area. |
| 50-day moving average | About $890 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average near $890.36 on July 31, 2026, slightly above the closing price. |
| 200-day moving average | About $518 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day moving average near $518.32, far below price and consistent with a very strong long-term trend after the 52-week rally. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI near 50 | StockAnalysis reported a 14-day RSI near 50.05, neither overbought nor oversold, after the stock swung from overbought in June to a deep pullback and then a post-earnings rebound. |
| Volume | Average volume about 5.5M shares | StockAnalysis reported 20-day average volume near 5.47 million shares, with volume spiking above 9 million on the volatile July 28 to July 30 window. |
| Volatility | High | StockAnalysis listed beta near 2.07 and a 52-week range from about $144.75 to $1,145, showing very large realized volatility and large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $748 | A decisive break below the July 28 to July 29 close zone near $747 to $764 would weaken the post-earnings recovery and shift attention to the $699 area. |
STX AI trading strategy
The STX AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice. Traders should combine live quotes, quarterly guidance updates, nearline exabyte and pricing data, HAMR ramp updates, position sizing, and predefined invalidation levels before acting.
Wait for STX to reclaim and hold the $890 to $900 zone, ideally with volume above the 5.5 million average, after the post-earnings rebound. Confirm with rising non-GAAP guidance and continued nearline exabyte growth.
A failed reclaim, a close back below $810, or negative guidance that breaks the sequential revenue growth path invalidates the short-term trend-following setup.
If STX pulls back toward the $810 to $820 support or the 50-day area near $890, compare price action with live HDD pricing, September-quarter guidance follow-through, Mozaic 4+ ramp data, and free cash flow before acting.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the decline is tied to weaker pricing, lower gross margin, inventory digestion, or multiple compression in a stock that is already up about 481% in 52 weeks.
Track nearline exabytes, data center mix near 89% of exabytes, HAMR as about 40% of the nearline exabyte run rate, Mozaic 4+ and Mozaic 5+ qualifications, non-GAAP gross margin, free cash flow, debt reduction, buyback pace, and share-count dilution from convertibles.
Reduce confidence when earnings growth depends more on a higher multiple than on verified revenue, margin, and cash-flow improvement.
Investment research summary
Seagate sells the lowest-cost mass storage layer for data centers, cloud, and edge workloads. Customers pay because retaining, reusing, and moving huge data sets is cheaper on high-capacity HDDs than on many alternative storage media, especially as AI-driven data compounds.
The moat is built on HAMR-based Mozaic areal density engineering, manufacturing scale, long nearline qualification cycles with hyperscale customers, and long-term supply agreements that allocate most nearline exabytes into calendar 2028. It narrows if SSD economics improve faster than HDD density or if rivals match capacity at better cost.
The thesis fails if AI storage demand was pulled forward, cloud customers over-order and digest inventory, pricing reverses from the 10% to 20% year-over-year price per exabyte gains, HAMR yields miss expectations, export controls restrict sales, or investors stop paying an AI infrastructure multiple for a cyclical hardware supplier.
Dave Mosley and Gianluca Romano have run a disciplined supply and value-based pricing strategy, expanded non-GAAP gross margin for 13 straight quarters, generated record free cash flow, and cut debt from about $5 billion to $3.6 billion with leverage near 0.4x. The test is sustaining pricing and capital allocation through the rest of the upcycle.
AI increases the data that must be stored, retained, and moved, supporting nearline HDD demand, and Seagate points to data center representing about 89% of exabyte shipments. The favorable trend is real, but it remains tied to cloud capex cycles and customer inventory behavior.
At about 61.6x trailing EPS, 23.9x forward EPS, and 15.9x sales, STX has limited margin of safety unless earnings compound toward the FY2027 consensus EPS of $35.80 and the market keeps a premium multiple. The base case from the scenario tool sits near the consensus target.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| STX price and market capitalization | $856.13 close on July 31, 2026 and $194.34 billion market capitalization | StockAnalysis.com overview and market cap page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $194.34 billion calculated as $856.13 x 227.00 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 227.00 million on StockAnalysis, up 5.53% year over year, with a diluted count of about 231 million including 2028 convertible notes | StockAnalysis statistics and Q4 FY2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $12.195 billion, up 34.05% from $9.097 billion in FY2025, cross-validated across StockAnalysis financials and the Q4 FY2026 earnings call | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q4 FY2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income and EPS | Net income of $3.184 billion, GAAP EPS of $13.90, and non-GAAP EPS of $15.58 for fiscal 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials and forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of $3.674 billion, capital expenditures of $569 million, and record free cash flow of $3.105 billion at a 25.46% margin | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 results | Revenue of $3.6 billion, up 17% sequentially and 48% year over year, non-GAAP gross margin of 52.7%, non-GAAP operating margin of 44.6%, and non-GAAP EPS of $5.71, up 121% year over year | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 GAAP and cash flow | GAAP net income of $1.29 billion or about $5.58 per share, and free cash flow above $1.1 billion at a 31% margin, the strongest quarterly cash generation in over a decade | Wall Street Journal and Q4 FY2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 exabytes and mix | Total exabytes shipped of 218 EB, up 34% year over year, with 195 EB into data center, up 43% year over year, data center about 89% of exabytes, and data center revenue of $2.9 billion, up 57% year over year | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 end-market mix | Data Center revenue of $9.771 billion and Edge IoT of $2.425 billion, about 80% and 20% of FY2026 revenue | StockAnalysis.com financial KPIs | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $1.704 billion, total debt of $3.565 billion, net debt of $1.861 billion, and shareholders equity of $2.167 billion at July 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Debt reduction | Gross debt reduced from about $5.0 billion to $3.6 billion in fiscal 2026, with $1 billion in high-yield senior notes retired in July 2026, about $1.2 billion more planned in the September quarter, and net leverage near 0.4x | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| September-quarter guidance | Revenue of $4.1 billion plus or minus $100 million, about 50% non-GAAP operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS of $7.30 plus or minus $0.20, with a tax rate near 16% and a diluted share count of about 231 million | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2027 outlook | Management expects FY2027 revenue growth to outpace the 34% growth of FY2026, with sequential revenue, margin, and cash generation improvement through the fiscal year | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| HAMR technology ramp | HAMR-based products about 40% of the nearline exabyte run rate exiting FY2026, Mozaic 3+ qualified at all major cloud customers, Mozaic 4+ supporting up to 44 TB per drive ramping with the two largest CSPs, and Mozaic 5+ on track for late calendar 2027 | Q4 FY2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2027 and FY2028 consensus estimates | FY2027 revenue estimate of $18.51 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $35.80, and FY2028 revenue estimate of $24.85 billion | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $1,106.09 across 25 analysts, median $1,090, low $700, and high $1,600 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 30, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 18 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 3 Hold, and 0 Sell out of 25 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Post-Q4 analyst target updates | Argus $900, Barclays $1,250, Morgan Stanley $1,187, JPMorgan $1,240, TD Cowen $1,000, Wedbush $1,000, Wells Fargo $1,180, Citi $1,300, Rosenblatt $1,400, Baird $1,080, and Susquehanna $875 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts, TipRanks | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 61.59x trailing PE, 23.91x forward PE, 15.94x PS, 89.68x PB, 62.59x P/FCF, and a 0.38 PEG by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day moving average near $890.36 and 200-day moving average near $518.32 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range and beta | 52-week high near $1,145, 52-week low near $144.75, 52-week price change of about 480.74%, and beta near 2.07 | StockAnalysis.com overview and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $2.96, a 0.35% yield, quarterly payments of $0.74, and the next ex-dividend date on September 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend page | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.34 million shares short, about 3.23% of shares outstanding, and 1.41 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
This STX AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are based on available public data, financial-rigor calculations, and scenario assumptions as of the data cutoff, and they can be wrong if fundamentals, technical conditions, policy, or market sentiment change.
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