Super Group (SGHC) Limited research snapshot
SGHC AI stock analysis currently sees Super Group as a profitable global online sports betting and gaming operator behind the Betway and Spin brands. Q1 2026 revenue rose 18% year over year to $612 million, Adjusted EBITDA rose 36% to $152 million, and average monthly active customers hit a record 6.4 million. FY2026 guidance remains above $2.55 billion in revenue and $680 million in Adjusted EBITDA, and the annual dividend target was raised to a minimum of 20 cents per share. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest source-backed close was $14.00 on July 31 with a market capitalization of about $7.11 billion, and Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026. The main cautions are a trailing P/E near 29, regulatory and payment-access exposure, event-driven wagering, and the fact that the stock pulled back about 12% from the $15.86 July high. The SGHC AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a precise prediction. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$14.00 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
About $7.11 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable global online gaming operator with record Q1 results and reaffirmed guidance, balanced by regulatory and event risk after a pullback from the July high
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages but pulled back from the July high, with RSI near 44 back to neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Betway and Spin monetize sports betting and online casino activity across multiple licensed markets. Q1 2026 revenue was $612 million and profit for the period was $86 million. | High |
| Moat | Brand recognition, local licenses, sportsbook technology, trading data, marketing scale, and customer accounts provide useful advantages. The moat is narrower than a network-effect platform because customers can multi-home and licenses are jurisdiction specific. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Neal Menashe and CFO Alinda van Wyk bring decades of online gaming experience. The team exited the U.S. iGaming market, closed the Apricot sportsbook software deal, raised the dividend, and added a $100 million credit facility, but capital return and expansion commitments need continued scrutiny. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $1.502 billion in 2021 to $2.231 billion in 2025 and $2.326 billion TTM. TTM net income is about $245 million and TTM free cash flow is $330.5 million in the standardized financial series. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.00, the audited inputs imply about 29.17x TTM EPS, 21.54x TTM free cash flow per share, and 3.06x sales, with a 3.21% dividend yield and a forward P/E near 14.74. The valuation is reasonable only if earnings and cash flow keep growing while regulation does not reset the economics. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is just above the $13.94 50-day average and well above the $11.90 200-day average, with RSI near 44. The close at $14.00 is below the $15.86 52-week high reached in July, so momentum cooled but the trend structure remains positive. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high relative to a typical consumer company because license loss, tax changes, payment restrictions, adverse sports results, responsible-gaming rules, cyber incidents, and customer acquisition costs can materially affect earnings. Short interest of about 20 million shares adds positioning risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-company data and arithmetic are well supported, but AI cannot know future regulation, sports hold rates, customer retention, World Cup-related costs, or the multiple investors will pay for gaming cash flows. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Super Group is a credible profitable operator, not a high-certainty compounder. The investment case depends on maintaining licenses, cash conversion, brand strength, and disciplined capital returns across jurisdictions. | Medium |
SGHC AI stock forecast
The SGHC AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario range, not a guaranteed target. Using the $14.00 close, $0.48 TTM EPS, and the audited three-scenario calculation, the model produced approximately $18 bullish, $11 base, and $6 bearish outcomes before dividends, currency effects, dilution, or changes to the stated assumptions. The wide spread reflects the sensitivity of gaming earnings to regulation, sports results, World Cup spending, and valuation multiples. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026, so the next data refresh can tighten these ranges.
$16 to $20
More likely if Q2 and FY2026 results stay above the guidance floor of $2.55 billion revenue and $680 million Adjusted EBITDA, Africa and International both grow, the World Cup lifts wagering without a lasting margin setback, and cash returns remain credible.
$9 to $13
More likely if revenue grows at a low double-digit rate, the business meets its guidance range, profit and free cash flow remain positive, and the market values the stock near a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple as regulatory costs stay manageable.
$4 to $7
More likely if licenses or tax rules worsen, sports hold rates turn against the operator, customer acquisition becomes less efficient, payment access is restricted, World Cup-related spending outruns returns, or investors re-rate international gaming cash flows sharply lower.
SGHC AI technical analysis
SGHC AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $14.00 and the public technical snapshot available by the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed just above its $13.94 50-day average and well above its $11.90 200-day average, while RSI near 44 was neutral after the July run to $15.86. Static levels must be refreshed on a live chart before any trade decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.00 | July 31, 2026 market close used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $13.83 to $13.95 | The recent pullback low and the 50-day moving-average area. A hold would preserve the near-term positive structure. |
| Deeper support | $13.30 to $13.50 | June and July consolidation lows. A sustained break would weaken the intermediate trend. |
| Trend support | $11.90 | The 200-day moving average. A sustained break below it would signal a broader trend change. |
| Near resistance | $14.85 to $15.00 | Late-July rebound levels. A reclaim with volume would suggest the pullback is over. |
| High resistance | $15.50 to $15.86 | The July high and 52-week high zone. A breakout needs volume and earnings confirmation. |
| 52-week range | $8.46 to $15.86 | Public quote data range as of the July 31, 2026 snapshot. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.94 | Price was just above this average in the latest public technical snapshot. Refresh before trading. |
| 200-day moving average | $11.90 | The longer-term trend reference in the latest public technical snapshot. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI 44.59 | RSI cooled from the July run, so the trend had room but was not a standalone buy signal. |
| Volume and volatility | 2.47 million average volume, beta 1.08 | Liquidity is meaningful, while beta near the market average does not capture sudden event or regulatory gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $13.30, then $11.90 | A break of the June and July lows should trigger a fundamental review, and a break of the 200-day average should invalidate a simple trend-following thesis. |
SGHC AI trading strategy
The SGHC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It links price action with revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA, monthly active customers, licensing, sports hold rates, free cash flow, dividends, and net cash.
Watch for SGHC to hold the $13.83 to $13.95 support area, reclaim the $14.85 to $15.00 zone, and confirm any move above the $15.86 July high with volume and with Q2 2026 results that support guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below the 50-day average weakens this setup. Do not treat a World Cup or earnings gap as a stable trend without follow-through.
If SGHC retreats toward the $13.30 to $13.50 area without a new license, tax, payment, or earnings problem, compare the new price with TTM EPS, free cash flow per share, net cash, and the dividend policy.
Do not average down only because the price fell. The setup fails if the decline reflects license risk, worsening hold rates, customer churn, higher taxes, World Cup cost overruns, or a permanent reduction in cash generation.
Track revenue by Africa and International, monthly active customers, wagering and deposits, Adjusted EBITDA margin, cash conversion, licensing status, gaming taxes, payment access, sportsbook software integration, diluted shares, and dividends. Watch the Q2 2026 report on August 4, 2026.
Refresh assumptions after every quarterly release and material regulatory update. Position sizing should reflect cross-border operating risk and the possibility that cash returns compete with reinvestment.
Investment research summary
Customers use Betway and Spin to place sports bets and play online casino games. Super Group earns from wagering activity, casino play, marketing efficiency, trading, payments, and the ability to operate legally in each target market.
Brand familiarity, local licenses, sportsbook and casino technology, trading data, payment relationships, marketing scale, and a large customer base create operating advantages. The moat is limited by multi-homing, intense competition, local regulation, and the ability of rivals to buy similar sports rights and marketing.
The thesis can fail through license loss, higher gaming taxes, responsible-gaming restrictions, payment or banking access problems, cyber incidents, poor sports hold rates, customer acquisition inflation, or a regulatory event in a major market. A crowded trade and short interest near 4% of shares outstanding add pullback risk. These risks are qualitatively high impact even when their timing is hard to estimate.
CEO Neal Menashe has worked across Betway and online gaming for more than two decades, while CFO Alinda van Wyk has more than 20 years of gaming finance experience. The record shows the U.S. iGaming exit, the Apricot sportsbook software purchase, higher dividends, and a new credit facility. The key question is whether management can balance dividends and World Cup spending with reinvestment and regulatory resilience.
Online betting and gaming continue to move from informal and land-based activity toward regulated digital channels. The long-term opportunity is broad, but country-by-country licenses, taxes, advertising rules, sports rights, payment access, and responsible-gaming obligations create a hard ceiling on addressable markets. The 2026 World Cup can lift activity but is not a permanent moat, and prediction-market competition adds a new variable.
The $7.11 billion equity value is supported by current profitability, $334 million of TTM net cash, and a dividend yield near 3.21%. The margin of safety is not large at about 29.17x TTM EPS and 21.54x TTM free cash flow per share. It improves if guidance is exceeded without higher regulatory costs, or if the price falls while the operating thesis remains intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGHC price and 52-week range | $14.00 close on July 31, 2026; $8.46 to $15.86 range | StockAnalysis quote and statistics snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | About $7.11 billion from $14.00 x 508.08 million shares; 0.04% variance to reported market cap | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | 508.08 million current shares versus 507.99 million diluted weighted-average shares in Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Super Group Q1 2026 release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $2.231 billion standardized revenue, $355.9 million profit before tax, $559.5 million Adjusted EBITDA, and about $218 million profit for the period | Super Group FY2025 results and SEC 20-F | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue: $1.502B in 2021, $1.386B in 2022, $1.555B in 2023, $1.835B in 2024, and $2.231B in 2025; $2.326B TTM | StockAnalysis standardized income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $612 million revenue, $86 million profit, $152 million Adjusted EBITDA, and 6.4 million average monthly active customers | Super Group Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Segment and regional mix in Q1 2026 | Africa revenue $267 million and Adjusted EBITDA $98 million; International revenue $339 million and Adjusted EBITDA $73 million | Super Group Q1 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | $438 million cash and short-term investments at March 31, 2026 and $334 million TTM net cash after $104 million debt | Super Group Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $330.5 million, or $0.65 per share, in the standardized series | StockAnalysis cash-flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Guidance and dividend policy | FY2026 revenue guidance above $2.55 billion and Adjusted EBITDA above $680 million; annual dividend target raised to a minimum of 20 cents per share | Super Group FY2025 and Q1 2026 results releases | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and technical snapshot | Strong Buy consensus with an $18.88 average price target across 8 analysts; $13.94 50-day average, $11.90 200-day average, RSI 44.59, beta 1.08, and 2.47 million average volume | StockAnalysis forecast and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This SGHC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available by August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if revenue growth, customer activity, sports results, licensing, gaming taxes, cash flow, dividends, valuation multiples, or market conditions change. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this page was produced.
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