Super Group (SGHC) Limited research snapshot
SGHC AI stock analysis currently sees Super Group as a profitable global online sports betting and gaming operator with the Betway and Spin brands, rising customer activity, and strong cash generation. FY2025 revenue reached $2.231 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 18% year over year to $612 million and Adjusted EBITDA rose 36% to $152 million. The main caution is that the $7.57 billion equity value prices in continued earnings growth, and the business remains exposed to licensing, gaming taxes, sports results, payment access, customer acquisition, and responsible-gaming requirements. The SGHC AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a precise prediction. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$14.89 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$7.57 billion verified equity value
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable global online gaming operator with strong cash generation and material regulatory risk
Trend status
Positive trend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with price near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Super Group monetizes sports betting and online casino activity through Betway and Spin across multiple licensed markets. Q1 2026 revenue was $612 million and profit for the period was $86 million. | High |
| Moat | Brand recognition, local licenses, sportsbook technology, trading data, marketing scale, and customer accounts provide useful advantages. The moat is narrower than a network-effect platform because customers can multi-home and licenses are jurisdiction specific. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Neal Menashe and CFO Alinda van Wyk bring more than two decades of online gaming experience. The team has grown revenue, acquired sportsbook software, and returned cash, but dividend commitments and expansion decisions need continued scrutiny. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $1.502 billion in 2021 to $2.231 billion in 2025. TTM revenue is $2.326 billion, TTM net income is $245 million, and TTM free cash flow is $330.5 million in the standardized financial series. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.89, the audited inputs imply about 31.02x TTM EPS, 22.91x TTM free cash flow per share, and 3.25x sales. The valuation is reasonable only if earnings and cash flow continue growing while regulation does not reset the economics. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the $13.45 50-day average and $11.80 200-day average, with RSI near 63. The close remains below the $15.73 52-week high, so momentum is positive but not a substitute for risk control. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high relative to a typical consumer company because license loss, tax changes, payment restrictions, adverse sports results, responsible-gaming rules, cyber incidents, and customer acquisition costs can materially affect earnings. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported-company data and arithmetic are well supported, but AI cannot know future regulation, sports hold rates, customer retention, or the multiple investors will pay for gaming cash flows. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Super Group is a credible profitable operator, not a high-certainty compounder. The investment case depends on maintaining licenses, cash conversion, brand strength, and disciplined capital returns across jurisdictions. | Medium |
SGHC AI stock forecast
The SGHC AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario range, not a guaranteed target. Using $14.89, $0.48 TTM EPS, and the audited three-scenario calculation, the model produced approximately $19.90 bullish, $12.10 base, and $6.70 bearish outcomes before dividends, currency effects, dilution, or changes to the stated assumptions. The wide spread reflects the sensitivity of gaming earnings to regulation, event volume, and valuation multiples.
$18 to $21
More likely if FY2026 revenue stays above the company guidance floor of $2.55 billion, Adjusted EBITDA exceeds $680 million, Africa and International both grow, the World Cup lifts wagering without a lasting margin setback, and cash returns remain credible.
$10 to $14
More likely if revenue grows at a low double-digit rate, the business meets its guidance range, profit and free cash flow remain positive, and the market values the stock near a mid-to-high teens earnings multiple as regulatory costs stay manageable.
$5 to $8
More likely if licenses or tax rules worsen, sports hold rates turn against the operator, customer acquisition becomes less efficient, payment access is restricted, the U.S. remains unprofitable, or investors re-rate international gaming cash flows sharply lower.
SGHC AI technical analysis
SGHC AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close of $14.89 and the latest public technical snapshot available by the July 12 data cutoff. The stock was above its 50-day average of $13.45 and 200-day average of $11.80, while RSI near 63 was neutral rather than overbought. Static levels must be refreshed on a live chart before any trade decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.89 | July 10, 2026 market close used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $13.40 to $13.50 | The current 50-day moving-average area. A hold would preserve the near-term positive structure. |
| Deeper support | $11.70 to $11.90 | The current 200-day moving-average area. A sustained break would weaken the longer-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $15.50 to $15.73 | The recent recovery and 52-week high zone. A breakout needs volume and earnings confirmation. |
| 52-week range | $8.46 to $15.73 | Public quote data range as of the July 10, 2026 snapshot. |
| 50-day moving average | $13.45 | Price was above this average in the latest public technical snapshot. Refresh before trading. |
| 200-day moving average | $11.80 | The longer-term trend reference in the latest public technical snapshot. |
| Momentum | Positive trend, RSI 63 | RSI was neutral near 63, so the trend had room to continue but was not a standalone buy signal. |
| Volume and volatility | 3.47 million average volume, beta 1.08 | Liquidity is meaningful, while beta near the market average does not capture sudden event or regulatory gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $11.80 | A break below the 200-day average should invalidate a simple trend-following thesis and trigger a fundamental review. |
SGHC AI trading strategy
The SGHC AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal investment advice. It links price action with revenue growth, Adjusted EBITDA, monthly active customers, licensing, sports hold rates, free cash flow, dividends, and net cash.
Watch for SGHC to hold the $13.40 to $13.50 support area, reclaim or break above $15.73 with stronger volume, and confirm the move with revenue, customer, and Adjusted EBITDA performance that supports FY2026 guidance.
A failed breakout followed by a sustained close below the 50-day average weakens this setup. Do not treat a World Cup or earnings gap as a stable trend without follow-through.
If SGHC retreats toward the $11.70 to $11.90 200-day area without a new license, tax, payment, or earnings problem, compare the new price with TTM EPS, free cash flow per share, net cash, and the dividend policy.
Do not average down only because the price fell. The setup fails if the decline reflects license risk, worsening hold rates, customer churn, higher taxes, or a permanent reduction in cash generation.
Track revenue by Africa and International, monthly active customers, wagering and deposits, Adjusted EBITDA margin, cash conversion, licensing status, gaming taxes, payment access, sportsbook software integration, diluted shares, and dividends.
Refresh assumptions after every quarterly release and material regulatory update. Position sizing should reflect cross-border operating risk and the possibility that cash returns compete with reinvestment.
Investment research summary
Customers use Betway and Spin to place sports bets and play online casino games. Super Group earns from wagering activity, casino play, marketing efficiency, trading, payments, and the ability to operate legally in each target market.
Brand familiarity, local licenses, sportsbook and casino technology, trading data, payment relationships, marketing scale, and a large customer base create operating advantages. The moat is limited by multi-homing, intense competition, local regulation, and the ability of rivals to buy similar sports rights and marketing.
The thesis can fail through license loss, higher gaming taxes, responsible-gaming restrictions, payment or banking access problems, cyber incidents, poor sports hold rates, customer acquisition inflation, or a regulatory event in a major market. These risks are qualitatively high impact even when their timing is hard to estimate.
CEO Neal Menashe has worked across Betway and online gaming for more than two decades, while CFO Alinda van Wyk has more than 20 years of gaming finance experience. The record shows revenue growth, software acquisition, and shareholder distributions. The key question is whether management can balance dividends with reinvestment and regulatory resilience.
Online betting and gaming continue to move from informal and land-based activity toward regulated digital channels. The long-term opportunity is broad, but country-by-country licenses, taxes, advertising rules, sports rights, payment access, and responsible-gaming obligations create a hard ceiling on addressable markets. A major sports event can lift activity but is not a permanent moat.
The $7.57 billion equity value is supported by current profitability, $334 million of TTM net cash, and a dividend yield near 3.02%. The margin of safety is not large at about 31.02x TTM EPS and 22.91x TTM free cash flow per share. It improves if guidance is exceeded without higher regulatory costs, or if the price falls while the operating thesis remains intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGHC price and 52-week range | $14.89 close on July 10, 2026; $8.46 to $15.73 range | StockAnalysis quote and statistics snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $7.57 billion from $14.89 x 508.08 million shares; 0.06% variance to reported market cap | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding cross-check | 508.08 million current shares versus 507.99 million diluted weighted-average shares in Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and Super Group Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and profit before tax | $2.231 billion standardized revenue and $355.9 million profit before tax; the company release rounded revenue to approximately $2.2 billion | Super Group FY2025 results and SEC 20-F | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue: $1.502B in 2021, $1.386B in 2022, $1.555B in 2023, $1.835B in 2024, and $2.231B in 2025 | StockAnalysis standardized income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $612 million revenue, $86 million profit, $152 million Adjusted EBITDA, and 6.4 million average monthly active customers | Super Group Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | $422 million cash at March 31, 2026 and $334 million TTM net cash after $104 million debt | Super Group Q1 2026 release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $330.5 million, or $0.65 per share, in the standardized series | StockAnalysis cash-flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and operating footprint | CEO Neal Menashe and CFO Alinda van Wyk; more than 2,600 colleagues across 17 countries | Super Group investor relations and board biographies | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 31.02x TTM EPS, 10.41x book value, 22.91x free cash flow per share, 3.25x sales, and 3.02% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | $13.45 50-day average, $11.80 200-day average, RSI 63, beta 1.08, and 3.47 million average volume | StockAnalysis technical statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This SGHC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios use public data available by July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if revenue growth, customer activity, sports results, licensing, gaming taxes, cash flow, dividends, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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