DraftKings Inc. research snapshot
DKNG AI stock analysis currently sees DraftKings as a leading US online sportsbook and iGaming brand with real revenue scale and a turn toward free cash flow, while GAAP earnings remain thin and competition and regulation stay intense. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the last full Yahoo Finance session close was about $23.48, with an intraday Yahoo quote near $23.45. Exact market-cap math using about 496 million shares was about $11.65 billion, essentially matching the Macrotrends figure of $11.649 billion as of July 31, 2026. FY2025 revenue reached $6.05 billion and TTM revenue through March 2026 was about $6.29 billion, but FY2025 GAAP net income was only about $3.7 million and TTM GAAP net income through March 2026 was about $58.6 million. This is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$23.48 reference price
Market cap
$11.65 billion verified market cap
AI score
54 / 100
Rating
High-growth online sports betting and iGaming operator with improving free cash flow, thin GAAP profitability, brand scale, elevated regulatory and competition risk, and a price now trading below its key moving averages
Trend status
Bearish to mixed: price sits below both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages after a drawdown of roughly 50% from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | DraftKings earns money when customers place sports bets, play online casino games, and use related products such as daily fantasy. FY2025 revenue was $6.05 billion and Q1 2026 revenue was $1.65 billion, up about 17% year over year. | High |
| Moat | Brand awareness, product data, state licenses, media partnerships, and wallet history are advantages, but bettors can multi-home across apps and regulators can change economics quickly. | Medium |
| Management | Management is allocating cash among product investment, marketing, debt service on convertible notes, and buybacks. FY2025 share repurchases were about $572 million and Q1 2026 buybacks were about $99 million, so capital allocation quality matters as much as growth. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue and free cash flow improved sharply: FY2025 revenue rose about 27% to $6.05 billion, FY2025 operating cash flow was about $663 million, TTM free cash flow through March 2026 was about $714 million, while FY2025 GAAP net income only just turned barely positive at about $3.7 million and TTM GAAP net income was about $58.6 million. | High |
| Valuation | At about $23.48, tool-checked TTM GAAP PE was about 199x on roughly $0.118 per share of TTM earnings, while price to free cash flow per share was about 16.3x. The stock still embeds confidence that profitability will thicken. | High |
| Technical trend | As of the July 31, 2026 Yahoo chart snapshot, price near $23.48 was below a $25.49 50-day SMA and below a $27.63 200-day SMA, with a 52-week range of $20.46 to $48.78. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because DraftKings faces sports-result hold swings, state and federal regulation and tax changes, aggressive promotions, strong rivals, customer acquisition costs, responsible-gaming rules, and convertible-note leverage. | High |
| AI confidence | The public record supports a high-confidence description of reported figures and competitive structure, but it does not turn sports outcomes, promotion wars, or policy decisions into reliable forecasts. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low: growth and cash flow are improving, yet the margin of safety depends on durable earnings power rather than revenue scale alone. | Medium-low |
DKNG AI stock forecast
The DKNG AI stock forecast uses audited scenario math rather than a precise promise. A three-year model using $0.60 normalized EPS as an illustrative earnings anchor produced about $52 in the bullish case, $25 in the base case, and $9 in the bearish case. Those outputs are sensitivity ranges, not price targets, because current TTM GAAP EPS is still thin and the normalized EPS input is an assumption about future profitability. The assumptions use lower earnings multiples than the previous refresh to reflect that the sector has de-rated along with the roughly 50% decline in the stock.
$45 to $60
More likely if sportsbook and iGaming revenue keep growing at a high rate, promo intensity falls, hold normalizes, state tax pressure is manageable, free cash flow expands, and investors award a growth multiple near the bullish PE assumption.
$20 to $30
More likely if revenue grows at a mid-to-high teens pace, GAAP earnings improve gradually, competition keeps marketing elevated, and the market applies a mid-20s earnings multiple to normalized profitability near the model base case around $25.
$7 to $12
More likely if customer-friendly sports results, higher taxes, share loss, or promo wars compress margins, free cash flow stalls, competition from FanDuel and other operators intensifies, or the market de-rates the sector toward a low-teens multiple on flat earnings.
DKNG AI technical analysis
DKNG AI technical analysis is bearish to mixed as of the August 3, 2026 research cutoff. A Yahoo Finance one-year daily chart snapshot placed the July 31, 2026 close near $23.48, below a calculated $25.49 50-day simple moving average and below a calculated $27.63 200-day simple moving average. The 52-week range was $20.46 to $48.78, and the stock has fallen roughly 50% from its high, so price sits closer to the bottom of its range. These levels are a monitoring framework rather than a live trade signal.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $23.48 | Yahoo Finance last full session close of about $23.48 on July 31, 2026, with an intraday quote near $23.45 on August 3, 2026. This is the page reference, not a live quote. |
| Immediate resistance | $24.80 to $25.60 | This band brackets the calculated 20-day simple moving average of about $24.85 and the 50-day simple moving average of about $25.49 from the Yahoo one-year daily closes. |
| Near resistance | $27.50 to $27.70 | This band surrounds the calculated 200-day simple moving average of about $27.63, currently acting as longer-term overhead supply. |
| Longer-term resistance | $32 to $49 | Prior supply and the $48.78 52-week high mark the upper recovery path if the stock reclaims its moving averages on strong volume. |
| Deeper support | $22.30 to $23.00 | Recent consolidation lows sit near this area. A break below it brings the 52-week low into play. |
| Key support | $20.46 | Yahoo listed a 52-week low of $20.46. A sustained break below that level would invalidate a range-based recovery thesis. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $25.49, 200-day about $27.63 | Calculated from Yahoo Finance one-year daily closes as of July 31, 2026. Recalculate them from a current chart before acting. |
| Momentum | Bearish | Price is below both the 50-day and the 200-day average after a drawdown of roughly 50% from the 52-week high. Treat that as bearish trend structure until price reclaims the averages. |
| Volume | About 8.4 million shares on the latest session, average near 12.4 million | The July 31 Yahoo session showed about 8.44 million shares and the 20-day average was about 10.8 million. Compare any breakout volume with a multi-week average rather than a single day. |
| Volatility | High event sensitivity | Earnings are scheduled for August 6, 2026. Major sporting events, hold surprises, state tax or regulatory news, competitor promotions, and sector risk-off moves can all produce gaps. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $20.46 | A break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate a range-based long thesis and require a new fundamental review. |
DKNG AI trading strategy
This DKNG AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal financial advice. It ties chart levels to the operational drivers that matter most: sportsbook and iGaming growth, hold and promo intensity, state taxes and regulation, competition with FanDuel and other operators, free cash flow, buybacks, and convertible-note leverage. DraftKings next reports earnings on August 6, 2026, and analysts were projecting a year-over-year earnings decline for that quarter, so treat the report as a near-term catalyst.
Watch for price to reclaim the $24.80 to $25.60 zone and then the $27.50 to $27.70 area on stronger volume while quarterly revenue, contribution margin, and free cash flow support the move.
Treat a failed reclaim of the moving averages followed by a close back below $24.80 as a warning. Do not rely on price action alone when results are being distorted by sports outcomes or promotion spikes.
If DKNG retests the $22.30 to $23.00 area or the $20.46 low, compare the reset valuation with free cash flow, cash, convertible debt, competitive share, and evidence that unit economics have not structurally deteriorated.
Do not average down solely because the stock is far below its prior high. Require an updated balance-sheet, regulatory, and earnings review first, including the August 6, 2026 report.
Monitor quarterly revenue, handle, hold percentage, marketing spend, iGaming mix, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, buybacks, convertible notes, state tax and licensing changes, and competitor promotions from FanDuel and other operators.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth stays high while free cash flow and after-tax earnings stagnate, or if higher taxes and promotions consume the benefit of scale.
Investment research summary
Customers pay DraftKings to place sports bets, play online casino games, and use related fantasy and entertainment products. DraftKings monetizes regulated licenses, product technology, pricing and risk systems, customer wallets, brand marketing, and cross-sell across sportsbook and iGaming.
DraftKings has advantages in brand recognition, product investment, sports and player data, state licenses, and media relationships. The moat is limited by low switching costs, multi-homing bettors, promotion-led competition, and the power of regulators and tax authorities.
The thesis fails if regulation or taxes raise the cost of betting, customer-friendly sports results reduce hold, competitors take share through promotions or product, marketing spend stays elevated, free cash flow reverses, or convertible leverage becomes a problem in a weaker market.
Management must prove that growth investment and large buybacks create more value than simply defending share with promotions. The cleanest evidence will be recurring free cash flow and rising GAAP earnings after marketing, taxes, and responsible-gaming costs.
US online sports betting and iGaming can still benefit from digital adoption and remaining legal-market expansion, but early states are maturing. Licensing, advertising limits, gambling-harm rules, tax policy, sports rights, and local competition can change economics by market.
At about $23.48, DKNG reflects confidence that scale can become durable normalized earnings, after the stock fell roughly 50% from its high. The margin of safety improves if free cash flow funds profitable growth and disciplined buybacks, and weakens if thin GAAP profits, promotions, taxes, or competition delay that conversion. Tool-checked P/FCF near 16.3x is more informative than the extreme GAAP PE on thin earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DKNG quote reference | About $23.48 Yahoo Finance last full session close on July 31, 2026; about $23.45 intraday on August 3, 2026 | Yahoo Finance DKNG quote page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.65 billion calculated from $23.48 x about 496 million shares; 0.03% deviation from the $11.649 billion Macrotrends figure as of July 31, 2026 | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Yahoo/Macrotrends share count, Macrotrends market cap | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 496 million shares implied by the $11.632 billion intraday Yahoo market cap near $23.45, consistent with prior key-statistics figures | Yahoo Finance DKNG quote page and Macrotrends market cap | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $6.0545 billion from SEC companyfacts and about $6.055 billion from Macrotrends and StockAnalysis; cross-check difference under 0.1% | SEC EDGAR companyfacts CIK 0001883685, Macrotrends DKNG revenue, StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 and TTM net income | FY2025 GAAP net income $3.71 million (SEC); TTM net income through March 2026 about $58.6 million derived from SEC annual and quarterly frames, matching Yahoo and StockAnalysis | SEC EDGAR companyfacts NetIncomeLoss frames | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and earnings | Q1 2026 revenue $1.646 billion, net income $21.07 million, operating income $5.85 million; revenue up about 17% year over year | SEC EDGAR DraftKings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q companyfacts | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue through March 2026 | About $6.292 billion derived from SEC annual and quarterly revenue frames; matches StockAnalysis TTM | SEC companyfacts and StockAnalysis DKNG financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $999 million cash and cash equivalents, $1.260 billion convertible long-term notes payable, and $1.859 billion total debt instrument carrying amount at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis shows $1.918 billion total debt including finance leases | SEC EDGAR DraftKings Q1 2026 Form 10-Q companyfacts | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and buybacks | FY2025 operating cash flow $663 million less PPE capex $15 million implies about $648 million simple FCF; TTM free cash flow through March 2026 about $714 million. FY2025 share repurchases about $572 million and Q1 2026 about $99 million | SEC companyfacts cash-flow tags and StockAnalysis financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 199x TTM GAAP PE on roughly $0.118 EPS, 19.2x book value, 16.3x price to free cash flow per share, and 0.00% dividend yield; Yahoo shows about 260x on its own $0.09 diluted EPS basis | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation anchors | Bull about $52, base about $25, and bear about $9 from Pineify three-scenario math using a $0.60 normalized EPS input, 35%/18%/0% growth, and 35x/25x/15x PE assumptions | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical reference | Yahoo one-year chart snapshot: July 31, 2026 close about $23.48, 50-day SMA about $25.49, 200-day SMA about $27.63, 52-week range $20.46 to $48.78 | Yahoo Finance DKNG daily chart | August 3, 2026 |
This DKNG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if sports results, regulation, taxes, competition, promotions, debt costs, or market multiples change.
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