Is FLUT a buy according to AI stock analysis?

FLUT AI stock analysis does not call Flutter an automatic buy even after a 66% drawdown, because the price decline reflects real risks including prediction-market competition, leverage near 3.7x, negative GAAP earnings, and US sportsbook churn that must improve before the lower valuation is validated.

What is the FLUT AI stock forecast?

The FLUT AI stock forecast is scenario-based: about $160 to $185 in a bullish case, $110 to $130 in a base case, and $65 to $85 in a bearish case. The ranges are not guarantees and depend on profitability, regulation, sports results, debt, and valuation multiples.

What technical levels matter for FLUT?

The main FLUT technical levels are support near $98 to $101, deeper support at the $91.52 52-week low, near resistance at $107 to $109, next resistance at $113 to $117, and the major bearish ceiling at the 200-day moving average near $148.46.

Can AI predict FLUT stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize Flutter public data, check valuation arithmetic, and map scenarios, but FLUT can move on prediction-market regulation, sports results, earnings, leverage, the London delisting, and market sentiment.

How should I use this FLUT AI trading strategy?

Use this FLUT AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not as personal advice. Refresh the chart, define an invalidation level near $91.52, monitor the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, and size risk for 40% to 45% historic volatility before making a decision.

Why did FLUT stock fall so much over the past year?

FLUT fell about 66% over the past 52 weeks as investors weighed the threat of prediction-market platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, and a reported Meta app, a plan to delist from the London Stock Exchange, a leverage ratio near 3.7x, weaker US sportsbook economics, and persistently negative GAAP earnings.

What role do prediction markets play in FLUT analysis?

Prediction markets are the central swing factor in FLUT analysis. Flutter is investing about $250 million to $300 million of adjusted EBITDA losses in its own FanDuel Predicts product, while arguing cannibalization so far is limited, and the outcome of regulation and competition from Kalshi, Polymarket, and large tech entrants will help decide whether the stock re-rates.

Flutter Entertainment plc research snapshot

FLUT AI Stock Analysis

FLUT AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Flutter Entertainment as the world's leading online sports betting and iGaming operator, led by FanDuel in the United States, trading at $104.47 at the July 31, 2026 close with a market capitalization near $18.12 billion, re-verified as $104.47 times 173.48 million shares with 0.02% deviation across StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Revenue keeps growing, with Q1 2026 revenue of $4.304 billion up 17% and 2026 guidance of about $18.305 billion at the midpoint, but the stock has fallen about 66% over 52 weeks and trades near its 52-week low of $91.52. The decline reflects prediction-market competition, the plan to delist from the London Stock Exchange, a leverage ratio near 3.7x, weaker US sportsbook economics, and persistently negative GAAP earnings. Michael Burry disclosed a new stake in July 2026 betting that regulation curbs prediction-market rivals. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.

Current price

$104.47

Market cap

$18.12 billion

AI score

52 / 100

Rating

Global online betting and iGaming scale leader trading at a deeply de-rated price, with real revenue growth, heavy leverage, a prediction-market threat, and uncertain GAAP earnings conversion

Trend status

Bearish longer-term structure: the July 31 close of $104.47 sits just above the 50-day and 100-day averages but below the 20-day average and far below the 200-day average, after a 52-week change near minus 66%

Data cutoff (updated monthly)

August 4, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. Flutter has SEC filings including the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, the FY2025 Form 10-K, quarterly earnings releases, segment disclosure, 28 analysts, and multiple third-party datasets. The August 2, 2026 full refresh re-fetched and re-validated the $104.47 close, the $18.12 billion market cap, FY2025 revenue near $16.4 billion, Q1 2026 results, cash, debt, and share count, matching StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings release.
bias Check: The main AI bias risk is anchoring on the old $313.69 52-week high and calling the stock cheap, or treating every prediction-market headline as terminal. The reverse check asks whether a 17% revenue grower with the leading US sportsbook and iGaming positions is worth roughly 1.1x sales after a 66% drawdown, or whether leverage, weak GAAP profit, FanDuel sportsbook churn, and a structural threat from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Meta justify the lower multiple.
ai Confidence: High for price, market cap, FY2025 revenue, Q1 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA, cash, debt, share count, technical moving averages, and analyst consensus because they are supported by company filings and independent datasets. Medium for forward valuation and scenario prices because sports results, regulation of prediction markets, leverage reduction, and US margin recovery can move quickly. Reported Q1 2026 net income of $209 million differs from standardized net income of $218 million on StockAnalysis, a classification difference that does not change the story.
investment Certainty: Medium-low. Flutter has scale and growth but trades near a 52-week low for reasons that are partly fundamental, and investment certainty depends on whether the prediction-market threat fades, leverage falls, GAAP earnings turn positive, and the US sportsbook recovers, none of which is guaranteed.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	Flutter earns sports betting and iGaming revenue across the United States, UK and Ireland, Australia, Italy, and International markets. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.304 billion, up 17% year over year, with 2026 revenue guidance near $18.305 billion at the midpoint.	High
Moat	FanDuel scale, brand, licenses, data, media relationships, customer wallets, and a diversified multi-brand global portfolio are advantages, but bettors can switch apps, promotions are aggressive, and prediction-market operators now compete for the same users.	Medium
Management	Management made leadership changes in May 2026, with Dan Taylor appointed President and Christian Genetski leading the US business, and is balancing deleveraging, a $250 million buyback tranche, product investment, and prediction-market spending of about $250 million to $300 million of adjusted EBITDA investment losses.	Medium
Financial trend	Revenue grew 17% in Q1 2026 to $4.304 billion, but Q1 adjusted EBITDA rose only 2% to $631 million with margin down 210 basis points to 14.7%, TTM net income remained negative, and the leverage ratio held near 3.7x.	High
Valuation	At the $104.47 reference price, tool-checked TTM GAAP EPS was negative, while price to free cash flow per share was about 14.92x, price to sales about 1.06x, and forward PE about 15.89x on the statistics page versus about 18.34x on the forecast page.	High
Technical trend	The July 31 close of $104.47 was just above the 50-day average of $103.97 and the 100-day average of $104.29, below the 20-day average of $106.65, and far below the 200-day average of $148.46, so the intermediate trend is still bearish even after a bounce off the 52-week low.	Medium
Risk level	Risk is high because Flutter faces prediction-market competition, gambling regulation and tax changes, sports results volatility, leverage near 3.7x, interest cost of about $640 million expected for 2026, customer acquisition costs, US sportsbook churn, and the London delisting transition.	High
AI confidence	The public record supports high-confidence description of the business and reported figures, but it does not convert sports outcomes, regulatory decisions, prediction-market economics, or future margins into reliable predictions.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	Investment certainty is medium-low: revenue growth and market leadership are real, but the margin of safety depends on debt reduction, GAAP profitability, and the prediction-market threat rather than on headline growth alone.	Medium-low

FLUT AI stock forecast

FLUT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The FLUT AI stock forecast uses audited scenario math rather than a precise promise. A three-year model using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $5.70 as an illustrative earnings anchor produced $173.40 in the bullish case, $121.40 in the base case, and $74.70 in the bearish case. Those outputs are sensitivity ranges, not price targets, because the starting EPS is a consensus non-GAAP estimate and the stock still trades below the base case.

Bullish case

$160 to $185

More likely if regulation curbs prediction-market rivals, FanDuel share and margins recover, iGaming and International growth stay strong, leverage falls toward the 2.0x to 2.5x target, and investors re-rate the stock on improved GAAP earnings.

Base case

$110 to $130

More likely if revenue grows near management expectations, adjusted EBITDA expands slowly, the stock holds near a 16x to 18x forward multiple, and prediction-market spend remains a drag without becoming structural.

Bearish case

$65 to $85

More likely if prediction-market competition intensifies including from large tech entrants, US sportsbook trends worsen, regulation and taxes tighten, sports results stay customer-friendly, leverage stays high, or the market keeps the stock near its low analyst target of $80.

FLUT AI technical analysis

FLUT AI Technical Analysis

FLUT AI technical analysis is bearish-to-neutral as of the August 2, 2026 research cutoff. The stock closed at $104.47 on July 31, 2026, just above the 50-day moving average of $103.97 and the 100-day moving average of $104.29, below the 20-day moving average of $106.65, and well below the 200-day moving average of $148.46. The 52-week range is $91.52 to $313.69, so price sits near the bottom of a wide bearish structure after a 66% drawdown.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$104.47	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 173.48 million shares outstanding.
Immediate support	$98 to $101	Late July traded lows near $98 to $101 and the round $100 level form the first nearby support zone.
Deeper support	$91 to $93	The 52-week low is $91.52. A sustained close below it would open a fresh leg lower and invalidate the recent range thesis.
Near resistance	$107 to $109	The 20-day moving average near $106.65 plus the late July trading highs around $107 to $109 cap immediate upside.
Next resistance	$113 to $117	Mid July highs reached about $113 to $117, so a reclaim of the $110 to $113 area is needed before the trend can improve.
200-day moving average	$148.46	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $148.46, far above price and a major bearish ceiling.
Moving averages	5-day $105.86, 20-day $106.65, 50-day $103.97, 100-day $104.29	Barchart values as of July 31, 2026. Price is below the 5-day and 20-day averages but just above the 50-day and 100-day averages.
Momentum	RSI near 49	14-day RSI was near 48.93 on Barchart and StockAnalysis.com, neutral rather than oversold after the bounce off the low.
Volume	About 2.0 million average shares	20-day average volume was about 2.0 million to 2.1 million shares, with spikes near earnings and news events.
Volatility	Elevated, 14-day historic near 45%	Barchart reported 14-day historic volatility near 44.67% and 20-day near 40.10%, so position sizing must account for large gaps around reports and regulation news.
Invalidation	Sustained close below $91.52	A decisive break below the 52-week low would invalidate a range-based long thesis and require a fresh fundamental review, especially ahead of the August 5, 2026 Q2 report.

FLUT AI trading strategy

FLUT AI Trading Strategy Framework

This FLUT AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal financial advice. It ties chart levels to the operational drivers that matter most: FanDuel share and margin recovery, prediction-market regulation and competition, sports results, iGaming and International growth, leverage, interest cost, and the London delisting transition. The next major catalyst is the Q2 2026 update on August 5, 2026.

Trend-following setup

Watch for FLUT to hold the $98 to $101 support and to reclaim the 20-day average near $107 with rising volume while Q2 results, US sportsbook trends, and adjusted EBITDA support the move. A push above $113 to $117 would be the first meaningful trend improvement signal.

Treat a loss of the $98 to $101 zone followed by a close below $91.52 as a warning. Do not rely on price action alone when prediction-market news, regulation, or sports results can gap the stock.

Mean-reversion setup

If FLUT retests the $91 to $93 area, compare the reset valuation with normalized earnings, cash generation, debt service, and evidence that FanDuel and International margins have not structurally deteriorated. The base case scenario math suggests value is closer to $110 to $130 if execution improves.

Do not average down solely because the stock is down 66% from its high. Require an updated balance sheet, regulatory, prediction-market, and earnings review first, and cap any position size given 40% to 45% historic volatility.

Fundamental catalyst monitor

Monitor quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA, US sportsbook and iGaming share, prediction-market revenue and regulation, sports results, promotion intensity, leverage and interest cost, buyback pace, the London delisting completion, and any large tech prediction-market launches.

Reduce confidence if revenue growth stays acquisition-led while organic margin and cash conversion weaken, if leverage fails to decline, or if prediction-market competition becomes structural and margin-accretive rather than a temporary spend.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay Flutter to place sports bets, play casino and poker games, and access entertainment products. Flutter monetizes regulated licenses, product technology, odds and risk management, customer wallets, media reach, and cross-sell across FanDuel and a global portfolio of local hero brands.

Moat

Flutter has advantages in FanDuel scale, brand awareness, regulated licenses, data and pricing systems, product investment, customer history, and a diversified footprint. The moat is limited by low switching costs, promotion-led competition, and the new threat from prediction-market operators that target the same sports and event audiences.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if prediction-market competition becomes structural, US sportsbook trends keep worsening, regulation or taxes raise the cost of betting, customer-friendly outcomes reduce hold, leverage and interest cost outgrow cash generation, the London delisting disrupts liquidity, or GAAP profitability keeps being deferred.

Management

Management must prove that the May 2026 leadership changes and investment in product, FanDuel Predicts, prediction markets, and new state launches create more value than debt reduction or repurchases. The cleanest evidence will be recurring operating profit and cash flow after interest, taxes, and responsible-gaming costs, with leverage trending toward the 2.0x to 2.5x target.

Industry trend

Online betting and iGaming can benefit from digital adoption and legal-market expansion, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup and NFL season are near-term demand drivers, but the direction is not one-way. Prediction-market platforms, gambling-harm rules, advertising limits, tax policy, and local competition can change the economics by market.

Valuation and margin of safety

At $104.47, FLUT reflects deep skepticism about prediction markets, leverage, and earnings quality. The margin of safety improves if operating cash flow funds debt reduction and profitable growth, and weakens if the prediction-market threat, reported losses, or high interest costs continue to delay that conversion.

Source-backed data

FLUT Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
FLUT price	$104.47 at the July 31, 2026 close, up 2.29% on the day	StockAnalysis.com real-time quote	August 2, 2026
Market capitalization	$18.12 billion, computed as $104.47 x 173.48 million shares, 0.02% deviation from the reported figure	StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages	August 2, 2026
Shares outstanding	173.48 million shares outstanding, down 2.22% year over year, with insiders owning 18.95% and institutions 70.98%	StockAnalysis.com statistics and Flutter Q1 2026 Form 10-Q	August 2, 2026
Q1 2026 results	Revenue of $4.304 billion up 17%, net income of $209 million, adjusted EBITDA of $631 million up 2%, adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.7% down 210 bps, EPS of $1.23 and adjusted EPS of $1.22	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
FY2025 revenue	$16.409 billion on StockAnalysis.com, matching the forecast table near $16.38 billion with 0.18% deviation, cross-checked during this refresh	StockAnalysis.com financials and forecast pages	August 2, 2026
FY2025 net income	Flutter reported a total GAAP net loss for FY2025; StockAnalysis.com standardized net income was about negative $489 million, and the company 10-K reported a $407 million total loss with $310 million attributable to Flutter shareholders, a classification difference that should not be treated as interchangeable	Flutter FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials	February 26, 2026
US business indicators	Q1 2026 US revenue of $1.763 billion up 6%, with sportsbook up 1% and iGaming up 19%, and Flutter reported 39% US sportsbook and 27% US iGaming GGR market shares	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
International business indicators	Q1 2026 International revenue of $2.541 billion up 27%, up 18% constant currency, with adjusted EBITDA of $587 million up 13%	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
2026 guidance	Group revenue guidance near $18.305 billion and adjusted EBITDA near $2.865 billion at the midpoint, with interest expense net of about $640 million expected for 2026	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
Prediction-market investment	Flutter continued to expect about $250 million to $300 million of adjusted EBITDA investment losses on prediction markets in 2026, with FanDuel Predicts revenue not material in Q1 2026	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
Cash and debt	Cash and cash equivalents of $1.512 billion at March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, total debt of about $11.965 billion per the company and $12.560 billion per StockAnalysis.com, and net debt near $10.575 billion with a leverage ratio of 3.7x	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC EDGAR XBRL	August 2, 2026
Long-term debt	$11.794 billion at March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL	Flutter Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL	August 2, 2026
Capital returns	About $1.31 billion returned to shareholders since the start of the repurchase program against a plan to return up to $5 billion, with a $250 million tranche underway in the first half of 2026	Flutter Q1 2026 earnings release	May 6, 2026
London delisting	Flutter announced in June 2026 that it would delist from the London Stock Exchange in August 2026 and trade solely on the New York Stock Exchange	Reuters and Wall Street Journal via StockAnalysis.com news feed	June 12, 2026
Valuation math	Negative 49.28x TTM GAAP PE, 2.01x book value, 14.92x price to free cash flow per share, and 1.06x sales, verified with Pineify financial_rigor.py during this refresh	Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation verification	August 2, 2026
Scenario valuation anchors	Bull $173.40, base $121.40, and bear $74.70 from Pineify three-scenario math using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of about $5.70	Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario model	August 2, 2026
Analyst consensus	Buy with an average price target of $157.48 across 28 analysts, with a low of $80, median of $138, and high of $341	StockAnalysis.com forecast page	July 26, 2026
Analyst rating mix, July 2026	16 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell out of 28 analysts	StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends	July 26, 2026
Recent analyst target updates	Jefferies Buy $210, Citi Sell $93, UBS Buy $160, Stifel Buy $170 to $161, BofA Hold $130, with BTIG lowering to $120 and Wells Fargo lowering to $137 in July 2026	StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks	August 2, 2026
Financial forecast	FY2026 revenue estimate near $18.27 billion with adjusted EPS of $5.70, and FY2027 revenue near $19.98 billion with adjusted EPS of $8.80	StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast	July 26, 2026
Short interest	14.16 million shares short, 8.16% of shares outstanding, 5.29 days to cover	StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling	August 2, 2026
Trailing free cash flow	Operating cash flow of $1.326 billion, capital expenditures of $111 million, and free cash flow of $1.215 billion over TTM	StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement	August 2, 2026
Technical snapshot	5-day SMA $105.86, 20-day SMA $106.65, 50-day SMA $103.97, 100-day SMA $104.29, 200-day SMA $148.46, 14-day RSI near 48.93, 14-day historic volatility near 44.67%	Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots	August 2, 2026

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This FLUT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if sports results, prediction-market regulation, taxes, competition, leverage, the London delisting, or market multiples change.