Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida research snapshot
SBCF AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Seacoast Banking as a well-run Florida community bank with strong organic growth momentum and a valuation that already reflects much of the improvement. The Q2 2026 report, released July 28, 2026, showed net income of $59.5 million, up 87% from the prior quarter and 39% year over year, adjusted earnings of $65.8 million or $0.61 per diluted share that beat the $0.60 consensus, organic loan growth of 16% annualized, a stable 3.83% net interest margin, a record commercial pipeline near $1.3 billion, and deposit costs that declined one basis point to 1.53%. The Citizens First Bank conversion in The Villages was completed in July 2026, and the company reiterated 2026 guidance for high single-digit loan growth with adjusted EPS of about $2.48 to $2.52. The stock closed at $34.91 on August 3, 2026, near its 52-week high of $35.55, up about 27% over the trailing year, with a market capitalization near $3.4 billion. Offsetting the momentum are a hyper-competitive lending market, deposit competition, Florida commercial real estate concentration, and a valuation near 22x trailing GAAP EPS, about 13x forward earnings, 1.22x book value, and 2.2x tangible book value. The SBCF AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise prediction, and this page is informational research rather than investment advice.
Current price
$34.91 at the August 3, 2026 close
Market cap
About $3.4 billion, cross-validated as $34.91 times roughly 97.25 million shares with StockAnalysis.com reporting $3.34 billion
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Well-run Florida franchise with strong organic growth at a full, not cheap, valuation
Trend status
Positive, near the 52-week high with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Seacoast Banking earns spread and fee income by serving consumer, business, and commercial clients across Florida, with Q2 2026 adjusted return on assets of 1.25%, adjusted return on tangible equity of 15.8%, and wealth management revenue up 42% year over year. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is relationship-based: a statewide Florida brand, low-cost deposits at 1.53%, branch density, regulatory licenses, local market knowledge, and a granular loan book with an average commercial loan size near $1 million, though not immune to super-regional and fintech competition. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Charles Shaffer and the leadership team delivered 16% annualized organic loan growth, a record $1.3 billion pipeline, a smooth Citizens First Bank conversion, and 750,000 shares repurchased in Q2. The key tests are credit underwriting and expense discipline through a competitive cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net income was $59.5 million, up 87% sequentially and 39% year over year, adjusted EPS was $0.61, the net interest margin held at 3.83%, the core margin expanded 8 basis points to 3.65%, and nonperforming loans and past dues improved. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py verified about 16.6x trailing operating EPS of $2.10, about 22.2x trailing GAAP EPS of $1.57, a 13.2x forward multiple, 1.22x book value, 2.20x tangible book, and a 2.18% dividend yield at $34.91. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | SBCF closed at $34.91, above the 50-day moving average of $32.18 and the 200-day moving average of $31.78, near the 52-week high of $35.55, with Barchart reporting a Strong buy technical opinion of 88%. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate-to-high because the lending market is hyper-competitive, deposit competition is rising, Florida commercial real estate exposure is meaningful, credit losses and rate moves can shift results quickly, and the stock sits near a 52-week high. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials, balance sheet figures, and quote math. Medium for scenarios because future credit, funding, and rate conditions cannot be known from historical filings. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business is improving and the franchise is strong, but the price near the 52-week high with a 2.2x tangible book multiple leaves a limited margin of safety for a new entry. | Medium |
SBCF AI stock forecast
The SBCF AI stock forecast uses three-year scenario ranges around the August 3, 2026 close of $34.91, not a point target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using about $2.50 forward adjusted EPS produced mechanical outputs near $50 in a bull case, $37 in a base case, and $19 in a bear case. Those outputs do not include a guaranteed dividend stream and can change with loan growth, NIM, credit costs, deposit competition, and valuation multiples.
$46 to $54
More likely if organic loan growth sustains in the high single digit range, NIM holds above 3.6% on a core basis, credit costs stay contained, wealth management keeps compounding, and the market pays about 15x to 16x forward earnings for a growing Florida franchise.
$32 to $40
More likely if loan growth meets the high single-digit guidance, the margin stabilizes near 3.8%, deposit costs stay near 1.5%, efficiency improves gradually, and investors value SBCF near 12x to 13x forward earnings in line with the current consensus target near $36.
$16 to $22
More likely if credit losses rise from a Florida real estate or premium finance downturn, NIM compresses from rate cuts and deposit repricing, the hyper-competitive lending market pushes new loan yields down, and the market assigns a single-digit to low-teens earnings multiple.
SBCF AI technical analysis
SBCF AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows the stock closing at $34.91 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average of $32.18 and its 200-day moving average of $31.78, and just below the 52-week high of $35.55 set in February 2026. Barchart reports an 88% Strong buy technical opinion with the strongest short-term outlook, and the stock is up about 27% over 52 weeks and 12% over three months. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $34.91 | Latest verified close on August 3, 2026, used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $35.31 | First resistance point from the Barchart trader cheat sheet, just under the 52-week high. |
| Key resistance | $35.55 | The 52-week high set in February 2026. A break above this level would mark a new high. |
| Upper resistance | $35.88 to $36.77 | Second and third resistance points from Barchart, defining a breakout extension zone. |
| Near support | $33.86 | First support level from Barchart, the nearest downside reference below the close. |
| Secondary support | $32.97 | Second support level from Barchart, aligned with the 50-day moving average area. |
| Key support | $32.40 | Third support level. A sustained break would test the Fibonacci retracement zone near $31.38. |
| 50-day moving average | $32.18 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 50-day moving average at $32.18, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $31.78 | StockAnalysis.com reports the 200-day moving average at $31.78, well below the current price. |
| Fibonacci 61.8% | $32.37 | A commonly monitored retracement level from the 52-week range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 67.6 | StockAnalysis.com reports a 14-day RSI of 67.62, strong but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 797,000 to 918,000 shares | The August 3 volume was near or below the 20-day average of about 1.08 million shares, so a breakout should be confirmed by volume participation. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.84 to 0.86 | Low-to-moderate volatility relative to the broader market, typical for a regional bank stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $32.40, then $31.38 | A close below the third support level weakens the near-term setup. A break below the Fibonacci 50% level at $31.38 would challenge the medium-term trend. |
SBCF AI trading strategy
The SBCF AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for SBCF to break and hold above the $35.31 to $35.55 resistance zone with rising volume and the 50-day moving average sloping up before treating momentum as confirmed.
A failed breakout or daily close back below $33.86 should reduce confidence, and the position size should reflect the fact that the stock is near its 52-week high.
If SBCF pulls back toward $32.97 to $33.86 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with upcoming earnings, loan growth, NIM, deposit costs, and credit quality signals.
Do not average down solely because the bank has a local franchise. Define maximum loss and review the valuation near 2.2x tangible book first.
Track Q3 2026 earnings near October 26, 2026, loan growth against the high single-digit guidance, NIM and core margin, deposit costs, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, and the efficiency ratio.
Lower the rating if NIM compresses, credit costs rise meaningfully, loan pricing deteriorates, or the stock trades above 14x forward earnings without corresponding growth.
Investment research summary
Seacoast Banking lends to and takes deposits from Florida consumers, businesses, and commercial clients, earning net interest income plus growing fee revenue from wealth management and mortgage production across its statewide branch network.
The moat is Florida brand recognition, low-cost relationship deposits at 1.53%, branch density, regulatory licenses, local market knowledge, and a granular loan book, though competition from super-regional banks and fintechs is a factor.
The thesis can fail if credit losses spike from a Florida real estate downturn or the premium finance book, NIM compresses from rate cuts or rising deposit costs, the competitive lending market pushes yields down, loan growth stalls, or the bank loses deposit pricing discipline.
CEO Charles Shaffer and the leadership team have executed strong organic growth, completed the Citizens First Bank conversion, kept credit clean with net charge-offs near 10 basis points, and returned capital through 750,000 shares of buybacks in Q2.
SBCF operates in a hyper-competitive Florida banking market where super-regional and national banks are re-entering commercial lending, deposit competition is rising, and consolidation continues. Relationship banking and local presence remain relevant, but pricing and underwriting discipline are under pressure.
At about 22x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.2x forward earnings, 1.22x book value, and 2.20x tangible book value, the price reflects the improving fundamentals and near-term momentum. The setup needs either continued high single-digit growth or a pullback for a wider margin of safety.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBCF price | $34.91 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart quote snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $3.4 billion, verified as $34.91 times about 97.25 million shares, with StockAnalysis.com reporting $3.34 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, Google Finance, and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | $59.5 million, up 87% sequentially and 39% year over year | Seacoast Banking Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $0.61 per diluted share, beating the $0.60 consensus | Seacoast Banking Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Organic loan growth | 16% annualized in Q2 2026, with loans of $13.1 billion | Seacoast Banking Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Net interest margin | 3.83% stable; core margin up 8 basis points to 3.65% | Seacoast Banking Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Cost of deposits | 1.53%, down one basis point quarter over quarter | Seacoast Banking Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $682.18 million | StockAnalysis.com, calculated from quarterly filings | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.56 GAAP, or $2.10 operating per Barchart | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart fundamentals | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value per share | About $28.51 to $28.72 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet data | August 4, 2026 |
| Tangible book value per share | About $16.00 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet data | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend rate and yield | $0.76 annualized, about 2.16% to 2.18% forward yield | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $27.22 to $35.55 | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 16.6x trailing operating EPS, 22.2x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.2x forward earnings, 1.22x book value, 2.20x tangible book, and 2.18% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average 12-month price target near $36.08, about 3.5% above the current price | StockAnalysis.com analyst forecast from 6 analysts | August 4, 2026 |
This SBCF AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong.
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