KeyCorp research snapshot
KEY AI stock analysis currently reads KeyCorp as a recovering regional bank whose 2025 and Q1 2026 results improved after balance sheet repositioning, better net interest income, fee income growth, capital return, and stronger common equity Tier 1 capital. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, KEY traded near $23.37 with an independently verified market capitalization of about $25.24 billion. The setup is constructive but cyclical: upside depends on loan growth, deposit costs, NIM, credit quality, fee businesses, and capital returns, while downside comes from commercial credit losses, funding pressure, regulatory capital, and a lower regional bank multiple. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$23.37
Market cap
$25.24 billion verified market cap
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving regional bank with stronger capital and NII momentum, offset by credit-cycle and rate sensitivity
Trend status
Constructive, with price above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | KeyCorp earns spread income and fee income from consumer banking, commercial banking, investment banking, payments, wealth management, commercial real estate, deposits, loans, and treasury services. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from core deposits, local client relationships, treasury links, commercial banking expertise, regulatory licenses, underwriting data, and switching friction, but customers can still shop rates and credit terms. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Chris Gorman has led KeyCorp since 2020 and emphasized capital return, fee businesses, technology, frontline bankers, and a higher return on tangible common equity target. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $1.95 billion, up 10% year over year, while net income to common was $486 million and net interest margin rose to 2.87%. | High |
| Valuation | At $23.37, KEY screened near 14.34x TTM EPS, 1.45x book value, 11.57x free cash flow, and a 3.51% dividend yield using the audited input set. | High |
| Technical trend | StockAnalysis showed price above the 50-day moving average near $22.01 and the 200-day moving average near $20.42, with RSI near 63.87 and 20-day average volume near 12.32 million shares. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are credit losses, commercial real estate exposure, deposit cost competition, loan demand weakness, regulatory capital pressure, NIM compression, and lower market multiples for regional banks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because current facts are public and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because rates, deposits, credit, capital, and sentiment can move bank stocks quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | KEY has visible recovery drivers, but a buy decision depends on normalized EPS, tangible book value growth, credit stability, deposit quality, and whether the current price leaves enough margin of safety. | Medium |
KEY AI stock forecast
The KEY AI stock forecast is scenario-based because regional bank earnings depend on NIM, loan growth, deposit beta, credit costs, and capital requirements. Using the $23.37 reference price, $1.63 TTM EPS, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $12.30 in a bear case, $23.30 in a base case, and $32.50 in a bullish case before dividends.
$30 to $34 before dividends
More likely if KEY compounds EPS near 10% annually, keeps net charge-offs contained, protects deposits, expands NIM, grows priority fee businesses, buys back shares at rational prices, and the market applies about 15x earnings.
$22 to $25 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, NIM improves gradually, deposit costs stay manageable, credit remains normal, and investors value KeyCorp closer to 12x earnings.
$11 to $14 before dividends
More likely if credit losses rise, commercial real estate stress broadens, deposit costs stay sticky, loan demand weakens, capital return slows, or the market values KEY near 8x stressed earnings.
KEY AI technical analysis
KEY AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, but the stock is close enough to scenario resistance that risk control matters. StockAnalysis showed a July 7 close near $23.37, a 50-day moving average near $22.01, a 200-day moving average near $20.42, RSI near 63.87, and 20-day average volume near 12.32 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.37 | July 7, 2026 closing quote used for market cap and valuation math at the data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $22.00 to $22.10 | This range brackets the 50-day moving average and is the first trend support zone to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $20.30 to $20.60 | This area brackets the 200-day moving average and would test whether the longer-term trend is still intact. |
| Near resistance | $25 to $26 | This area lines up with the analyst target zone and likely needs confirmation from Q2 earnings, NIM, deposits, credit, and fee-income trends. |
| Upper resistance | $30 to $34 | This range aligns with the bullish scenario and likely requires clean credit, stronger normalized EPS, and better regional bank sentiment. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $22.01, 200-day near $20.42 | Price above both averages confirms a constructive trend, while a break below both would weaken the setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63.87 | Momentum is positive but not yet in the most stretched overbought zone, so earnings reaction and volume should be watched. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 12.32 million shares | Liquidity is high, but large-volume moves around earnings can still reset the trend if credit, deposits, or capital guidance changes. |
| Volatility | Watch July 21, 2026 earnings | The next confirmed earnings date is July 21, 2026 before market open, making Q2 NII, deposits, credit, capital, and buyback updates the main near-term catalysts. |
| Invalidation | Close below $22.00, then below $20.40 | A sustained break below the 50-day average would reduce trend confidence. A break below the 200-day average would point to a deeper reassessment. |
KEY AI trading strategy
The KEY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NII, NIM, deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value, buybacks, fee income, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for KEY to hold the $22.00 to $22.10 moving-average zone and break above $25 to $26 with earnings confirming stable deposits, contained charge-offs, NIM support, fee-income growth, and continued capital return.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $22.00 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher credit costs, weaker deposits, slower loan growth, or tighter capital return.
If KEY pulls back toward $20.30 to $20.60 while credit, deposits, and capital remain stable, compare the lower price with tangible book value, normalized EPS, dividend coverage, and buyback capacity.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if credit quality, commercial real estate exposure, deposit beta, NIM, or capital ratios worsen at the same time.
Track net interest income, NIM, average deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, nonperforming assets, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, fee-income momentum, buybacks, and Basel III capital updates.
Position sizing should reflect that KEY is a leveraged regional bank with macro and credit sensitivity, not a high-certainty compounding business with full pricing power.
Investment research summary
Customers pay KeyCorp for deposit safekeeping, payments, lending, treasury services, commercial banking, investment banking, wealth management, mortgages, and financial advice. The bank earns spread income on funded assets plus relationship-driven fees.
The moat comes from core deposit relationships, branch and digital access, commercial treasury links, underwriting data, local market knowledge, regulatory licenses, and switching friction. It is useful but not dominant because banks still compete on rates, service, credit availability, and convenience.
The thesis fails if credit losses normalize above expectations, commercial real estate stress widens, deposits reprice faster than assets, regulators demand more capital, buybacks slow, or investors apply a permanently lower multiple to regional banks.
Chris Gorman and the team have focused on revenue growth, higher fee contribution, technology, bankers, and capital return. The key-person question is whether the institution can keep credit, culture, capital discipline, and client growth intact through rate and credit cycles.
Regional banks remain important for U.S. commercial credit, deposits, payments, wealth, treasury management, and local banking. The offset is pressure from larger banks, fintech, deposit migration, digital service expectations, rate cycles, and bank regulation.
At $23.37, KEY prices in part of the earnings recovery. Margin of safety improves if normalized EPS moves toward the bullish case without credit slippage, or if the stock falls closer to the 200-day average while deposits, tangible book value, and capital remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.37 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis KEY statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Verified market capitalization | $25.24 billion using $23.37 price and 1.08 billion common shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1.08 billion current share class, cross-checked against Macrotrends Q1 2026 shares outstanding | StockAnalysis statistics and Macrotrends shares outstanding | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $7.20 billion, cross-validated with StockAnalysis and FullRatio | StockAnalysis financials and FullRatio | July 8, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $1.80 billion, cross-validated with StockAnalysis and FullRatio | StockAnalysis statistics and FullRatio | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue, net income, and EPS | $1.95 billion revenue, $486 million net income to common, and $0.44 diluted EPS | KeyCorp Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 capital and credit quality | CET1 ratio 11.4%, nonperforming assets 0.63%, and net charge-offs 0.38% | KeyCorp Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and debt reference | About $2.28 billion cash and $17.65 billion total debt by StockAnalysis; bank balance sheet debt is a financing line item, not industrial net debt | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py cross-check | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 14.34x TTM PE, 1.45x PB, 11.57x P/FCF, and 3.51% dividend yield by local financial_rigor check | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA near $22.01, 200-day MA near $20.42, RSI near 63.87, and 20-day average volume near 12.32 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This KEY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if rates, credit losses, deposits, capital rules, buybacks, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
