Science Applications International Corporation research snapshot
SAIC AI stock analysis currently reads Science Applications International Corporation as a mid-cap government technology and mission services contractor with improving earnings, a low headline P/E, and meaningful debt-related risk. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, SAIC closed near $112.62 with a verified market cap of about $4.76 billion. The company provides IT modernization, digital engineering, AI, cybersecurity, and mission systems support to defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies. The bull case rests on earnings recovery, defense and intelligence IT demand, a valuation near 12.7x trailing earnings, and a forward P/E near 10.2x. The caution is that net debt of about $2.6 billion gives a D/E ratio near 188%, profit margins are thin at about 5.6%, and government contract recompetes can pressure revenue visibility.
Current price
$112.62
Market cap
$4.76 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Government IT and mission services contractor with moderate valuation, improving earnings, meaningful debt, and thin margins
Trend status
Constructive above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with upward momentum from the April 2026 low near $88
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SAIC sells IT modernization, digital engineering, AI, cybersecurity, mission systems integration, and advisory services to U.S. defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, contract incumbency, mission-specific knowledge, delivery certifications, long-running agency relationships, and technical expertise in sensitive national-security environments. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Toni Townes-Whitley is executing a strategy focused on growth in IT modernization, AI, and digital engineering. Capital allocation focuses on organic investment, debt management, and a growing dividend. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $7.29 billion rose about 1.5% year over year. TTM net income of $405 million showed strong year-over-year earnings growth of about 84%, partly from a low prior-year base and operating improvements. | High |
| Valuation | At $112.62, verified math shows about 12.67x TTM EPS, 10.2x forward EPS, 0.65x revenue, 3.40x book value, 11.4x free cash flow, a 1.31% dividend yield, and an EV/EBITDA near 10.0x. | High |
| Technical trend | SAIC is above both the 50-day moving average near $104.62 and the 200-day moving average near $98.69, with a constructive trajectory from the early 2026 low near $88. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. High net debt, thin profit margins, government budget dependence, contract recompete pressure, and interest-cost exposure offset the low headline P/E and mission demand stability. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is adequate. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on contract awards, budget cycles, debt cost, margin execution, and multiple expansion. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. SAIC looks inexpensive on trailing earnings, but the debt and margin context means the attractive P/E may not translate into a simple value thesis. | Medium-low |
SAIC AI stock forecast
The SAIC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, a $112.62 stock price, $8.89 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $189.30 in a bull case, $133.80 in a base case, and $94.30 in a bear case before dividends.
$175 to $195
More likely if SAIC sustains double-digit EPS growth, wins key recompetes in defense and intelligence IT, improves operating margins toward 8% or higher, reduces net debt meaningfully, and is rerated toward a 14x to 16x earnings multiple.
$125 to $140
More likely if EPS grows in the mid-single-digit range, free cash flow supports debt reduction and dividend growth, margins hold near current levels, and the market values SAIC around 12x to 14x forward earnings.
$85 to $100
More likely if a major contract is lost, federal budget priorities shift away from SAIC service areas, interest costs stay elevated, margins compress from labor or subcontractor cost pressure, or the stock trades at a discounted 10x or below earnings multiple.
SAIC AI technical analysis
SAIC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed a $112.62 close on July 10, 2026. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average near $104.62 and the 200-day moving average near $98.69, with the 52-week range between $81.08 and $123.41.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $112.62 | Yahoo Finance closing quote for July 10, 2026, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Near support | $104 to $105 | The 50-day moving average near $104.62 is the first short-term trend reference. Holding this level keeps the constructive technical setup intact. |
| Deeper support | $98 to $99 | The 200-day moving average near $98.69 is the major long-term trend reference. A break below this level would weaken the structural technical read. |
| Near resistance | $120 to $123 | The 52-week high near $123.41 and the analyst consensus target near $120.30 form the first significant upside checkpoint. |
| 50-day moving average | $104.62 | SAIC is above this short-term trend marker, which supports a constructive short-term technical read. |
| 200-day moving average | $98.69 | SAIC is above this long-term trend marker, which supports a broader constructive technical read. |
| Momentum | Positive from the April low | SAIC rallied from about $88 in early 2026 toward $115 in July, showing improving momentum. Follow-through above $120 would confirm the trend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 564,000 shares | Volume is moderate for a mid-cap government services stock. A breakout above $120 should be judged against volume to confirm conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.28 | SAIC has a very low market beta, reflecting the non-cyclical nature of government services revenue. However, earnings, contract awards, and budget events still create stock-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $104 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would weaken the current constructive setup. A close below the 200-day average near $98 would shift attention to downside risk. |
SAIC AI trading strategy
The SAIC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with contract award timing, defense budget cycles, earnings quality, margin improvement, and debt reduction progress.
Watch for SAIC to hold above the $104 to $105 support zone and challenge the $120 to $123 resistance area. Confirm with sustained EPS growth, backlog stability, and evidence that margins are expanding.
Treat a close below the 50-day moving average as a caution signal. A close below the 200-day moving average invalidates the trend-following setup.
If SAIC pulls back toward the $104 to $105 area without a negative catalyst, compare the reset price with free cash flow yield, net debt trajectory, and visible contract backlog.
Do not average down on P/E alone. Require evidence that contract wins, margin trends, and debt reduction are on track before adding exposure.
Track next earnings, backlog trends, operating margin trajectory, free cash flow generation, net debt reduction, and defense budget developments. Monitor key recompete decisions and contract award timing.
Lower the rating if net debt stays elevated while earnings growth stalls, if a major contract is lost in recompete, or if operating margins compress below 5%.
Investment research summary
Customers pay SAIC because U.S. defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies need secure IT modernization, digital engineering, AI analytics, cybersecurity, and mission-critical systems integration delivered by cleared professionals inside complex regulatory environments.
SAIC benefits from security clearances, decades of contract incumbency, mission-specific engineering knowledge, and deep agency relationships. The moat is strongest where classified access and institutional knowledge create high switching costs for the customer.
The thesis fails if SAIC loses key recompete contracts, federal budget priorities shift away from its service areas, debt costs consume free cash flow, margins stay structurally thin, or interest rates stay high enough to limit balance-sheet flexibility.
CEO Toni Townes-Whitley is executing a strategy centered on IT modernization, digital engineering, and AI solutions. The key management test is growing earnings and free cash flow while reducing net debt from its elevated level.
SAIC sits in the long-duration trend of U.S. government technology modernization, defense digital transformation, cybersecurity spending, and AI adoption across federal agencies. Demand is structurally supported by national security priorities but subject to annual budget cycles.
At 12.67x TTM EPS, 10.2x forward EPS, and 11.4x free cash flow, SAIC screens inexpensive versus the broader market. Margin of safety depends on whether earnings growth can continue and whether debt levels decline as free cash flow accumulates.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAIC price | $112.62 closing price as of July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance SAIC summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $4.76 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified using 42.28 million shares and $112.62 price | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.28 million | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $7.29 billion revenue and $405 million net income | Yahoo Finance financials and yfinance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM earnings per share | $8.89 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward EPS | About $11.00 forward EPS estimate | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $109 million cash and $2.675 billion total debt, resulting in net debt of about $2.57 billion | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $418 million levered free cash flow | Yahoo Finance cash flow | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EBITDA | $7.33 billion enterprise value and $737 million EBITDA | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.48 annual dividend, 1.31% yield | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $104.62, 200-day moving average $98.69, 52-week range $81.08 to $123.41 | Yahoo Finance statistics and chart data | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating, mean target $120.30, range $96.00 to $137.00, 10 analysts | Yahoo Finance analysis page | July 12, 2026 |
This SAIC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, contracts, budgets, rates, margins, or market sentiment change.
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