Science Applications International Corporation research snapshot
SAIC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Science Applications International Corporation as a mid-cap government technology and mission services contractor with improving earnings and margins, a moderate headline P/E, and debt that remains elevated. The stock closed at $117.13 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.95 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $117.13 times 42.28 million shares outstanding per the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q1 FY2027 results, released June 1, 2026, delivered revenue of $1.906 billion up about 2%, record adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.6% up 320 basis points, adjusted diluted EPS of $3.23 up 68%, and free cash flow of $118 million. Management raised full-year FY2027 guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $720 million to $730 million, adjusted EBITDA margin to 10.1% to 10.3%, and adjusted diluted EPS to $9.90 to $10.10, while reiterating revenue of $7.0 billion to $7.2 billion and free cash flow above $600 million. Backlog stood at $22.9 billion at quarter end with $3.7 billion funded. The bull case rests on the margin and earnings recovery, backlog stability, buybacks that cut the share count by 7.84% over the past year, and a valuation near 13.2x trailing earnings. The caution is that net debt of about $2.57 billion keeps the debt to equity ratio near 1.88, GAAP profit margins are thin at about 5.5%, and organic growth was only 0.5% in Q1 once the SilverEdge acquisition is excluded, with FY2027 organic growth guided at negative 4% to negative 2%.
Current price
$117.13
Market cap
$4.95 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Government IT and mission services contractor with improving earnings and margins, moderate valuation, and still-meaningful debt
Trend status
Constructive above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, after a roughly 10% post-earnings jump in June 2026 that lifted the stock to a 52-week high near $123.41
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | SAIC sells IT modernization, digital engineering, AI, cybersecurity, mission systems integration, and advisory services to U.S. defense, intelligence, space, and civilian agencies, with TTM revenue near $7.29 billion and a record Q1 FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.6%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, contract incumbency, mission-specific knowledge, delivery certifications, long-running agency relationships, and technical expertise in sensitive national-security environments. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jim Reagan is executing a strategy focused on portfolio realignment toward high-value mission areas, record margin expansion, buybacks, and debt management. Q1 FY2027 delivered revenue growth of about 2%, a record 11.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and a raise to FY2027 EBITDA, margin, and EPS guidance. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue rose about 2% to $1.906 billion, adjusted diluted EPS rose 68% to $3.23, adjusted EBITDA margin hit a record 11.6%, free cash flow was $118 million, and bookings reached $2.1 billion at a book to bill ratio of 1.1, with FY2027 EPS guidance raised to $9.90 to $10.10. The offset is that organic growth was 0.5% and FY2027 organic growth guidance remains negative 4% to negative 2%. | High |
| Valuation | At $117.13, verified math shows about 13.18x TTM EPS, about 11.5x to 12.1x forward EPS depending on the estimate basis, 0.68x revenue, 3.54x book value, 8.21x free cash flow, a 1.26% dividend yield, and an EV/EBITDA near 10.3x. | High |
| Technical trend | SAIC is above both the 50-day moving average near $111.07 and the 200-day moving average near $99.93, with RSI near 56. The stock jumped about 10% on June 1, 2026 after Q1 results, reached a 52-week high near $123.41, and then cooled into the $117.13 close on July 31. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. High net debt, thin GAAP profit margins, federal budget dependence, negative organic growth guidance, and contract recompete pressure offset the low headline P/E and mission demand stability. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is adequate and the key figures cross-validated across sources during the August 3, 2026 refresh. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on contract awards, budget cycles, debt cost, margin execution, and multiple expansion. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium-low. SAIC looks inexpensive on trailing earnings and is improving execution, but the debt and margin context and negative organic growth guidance mean the attractive P/E may not translate into a simple value thesis. | Medium-low |
SAIC AI stock forecast
The SAIC AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the August 3, 2026 research cutoff, a $117.13 stock price, TTM diluted EPS of $8.89, and the raised FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $10.00, the three-year model anchors were about $195 to $205 in a bull case, $135 to $145 in a base case, and $95 to $105 in a bear case before dividends.
$190 to $205
More likely if SAIC sustains margin expansion toward the double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin target, delivers positive organic growth, wins key recompetes in defense, space, and intelligence IT, reduces net debt meaningfully, and is rerated toward a 14x to 15x forward earnings multiple.
$130 to $145
More likely if adjusted EPS grows in line with the raised $9.90 to $10.10 FY2027 guidance, free cash flow stays above $600 million and supports buybacks and dividend growth, margins hold near current levels, and the market values SAIC around 12x to 13x forward earnings.
$90 to $105
More likely if organic revenue keeps declining, a major contract is lost in recompete, federal budget priorities shift away from SAIC service areas, interest costs stay elevated, margins compress from labor or subcontractor cost pressure, or the stock trades at a discounted 10x or below earnings multiple. The Goldman Sachs Sell rating target of $96 sits in this range.
SAIC AI technical analysis
SAIC AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com showed a $117.13 close on July 31, 2026. The stock is trading above its 50-day moving average near $111.07 and the 200-day moving average near $99.93, with RSI near 56 and a 52-week range between $81.08 and $123.41.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.13 | StockAnalysis.com closing quote for July 31, 2026, up 1.22% on the day, used as the reference price for valuation and market-cap math. |
| Near support | $111 to $112 | The 50-day moving average near $111.07 is the first short-term trend reference. Holding this level keeps the constructive technical setup intact. |
| Deeper support | $99 to $100 | The 200-day moving average near $99.93 is the major long-term trend reference. A break below this level would weaken the structural technical read. |
| Near resistance | $121 to $123 | The July 28 intraday high near $122.61 and the 52-week high near $123.41 form the first significant upside checkpoint, with the analyst mean target near $120. |
| 50-day moving average | $111.07 | SAIC is above this short-term trend marker, which supports a constructive short-term technical read. |
| 200-day moving average | $99.93 | SAIC is above this long-term trend marker, which supports a broader constructive technical read. |
| Momentum | Positive from the June earnings jump | SAIC jumped about 10% on June 1, 2026 after Q1 FY2027 results, reached a 52-week high near $123.41, and then cooled into the $117.13 close on July 31. A break above $121 to $123 would confirm renewed momentum. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 429,000 shares | Volume is moderate for a mid-cap government services stock, with an elevated 1.84 million share print on the June 1 earnings day. A breakout above $123 should be judged against volume to confirm conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.28, RSI near 56 | SAIC has a very low market beta, reflecting the non-cyclical nature of government services revenue. RSI near 56 is neither overbought nor oversold. Earnings, contract awards, and budget events still create stock-specific volatility. |
| Invalidation | Close below $111 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $111.07 would weaken the current constructive setup. A close below the 200-day average near $99.93 would shift attention to downside risk. |
SAIC AI trading strategy
The SAIC AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with contract award timing, defense budget cycles, earnings quality, organic growth, margin improvement, and debt reduction progress.
Watch for SAIC to hold above the $111 to $112 support zone and challenge the $121 to $123 resistance area. Confirm with sustained EPS growth, backlog stability, organic growth improving from negative territory, and evidence that margins are expanding toward the double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin target.
Treat a close below the 50-day moving average near $111.07 as a caution signal. A close below the 200-day moving average near $99.93 invalidates the trend-following setup.
If SAIC pulls back toward the $111 to $112 area or the $99 to $100 zone without a negative catalyst, compare the reset price with free cash flow yield, net debt trajectory, and visible contract backlog.
Do not average down on P/E alone. Require evidence that organic growth, margin trends, and debt reduction are on track before adding exposure, given the negative FY2027 organic growth guidance.
Track the next earnings report near September 3, 2026, backlog trends, organic growth, operating margin trajectory, free cash flow generation, net debt reduction, and defense budget developments. Monitor key recompete decisions and contract award timing.
Lower the rating if net debt stays elevated while earnings growth stalls, if a major contract is lost in recompete, if organic growth keeps declining, or if adjusted operating margins compress below the low double digits.
Investment research summary
Customers pay SAIC because U.S. defense, intelligence, space, and civilian agencies need secure IT modernization, digital engineering, AI analytics, cybersecurity, and mission-critical systems integration delivered by cleared professionals inside complex regulatory environments.
SAIC benefits from security clearances, decades of contract incumbency, mission-specific engineering knowledge, and deep agency relationships. The moat is strongest where classified access and institutional knowledge create high switching costs for the customer.
The thesis fails if SAIC keeps posting negative organic growth, loses key recompete contracts, federal budget priorities shift away from its service areas, debt costs consume free cash flow, or margins fail to hold near the record levels reached in Q1 FY2027.
CEO Jim Reagan is executing a strategy centered on portfolio realignment, record margin expansion, buybacks, and debt management. The key management test is converting improving margins and raised guidance into durable organic growth and sustained free cash flow while reducing net debt.
SAIC sits in the long-duration trend of U.S. government technology modernization, defense digital transformation, cybersecurity spending, and AI adoption across federal agencies. Demand is structurally supported by national security priorities but subject to annual budget cycles.
At about 13.2x TTM EPS, 11.5x to 12.1x forward EPS, and 8.2x free cash flow, SAIC screens inexpensive versus the broader market. Margin of safety depends on whether margin expansion and the raised guidance translate into durable growth and whether debt levels decline as free cash flow accumulates.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAIC price | $117.13 closing price as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com SAIC quote page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $4.95 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified using 42.28 million shares and $117.13 price with 0.05% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 42.28 million, down 7.84% year over year on buybacks | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 results | $1.906 billion revenue up 2%, adjusted diluted EPS $3.23 up 68%, record adjusted EBITDA margin 11.6%, free cash flow $118 million, bookings $2.1 billion | SAIC Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA raised to $720 million to $730 million, adjusted EBITDA margin 10.1% to 10.3%, adjusted diluted EPS raised to $9.90 to $10.10, revenue reiterated at $7.0 billion to $7.2 billion, free cash flow above $600 million | SAIC Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | $7.29 billion revenue and $405 million net income | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM earnings per share | $8.89 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $109 million cash and about $2.68 billion total debt, resulting in net debt of about $2.57 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Q1 FY2027 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $603 million free cash flow, about $14.26 per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and EBITDA | $7.52 billion enterprise value and $732 million EBITDA, EV/EBITDA about 10.3x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog | $22.9 billion total backlog at May 1, 2026, with $3.7 billion funded | SAIC Q1 FY2027 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.48 annual dividend, 1.26% yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $111.07, 200-day moving average $99.93, RSI 55.95, 52-week range $81.08 to $123.41 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating, mean target $120.00, range $93.00 to $137.00, 11 analysts, with Citi at Buy $132 and Goldman Sachs at Sell $96 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent contract award | $70 million U.S. Navy task order for radar engineering and technical support services, announced July 30, 2026 | SAIC press release via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
This SAIC AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, contracts, budgets, rates, margins, or market sentiment change.
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