CACI International Inc research snapshot
CACI AI stock analysis currently reads CACI International as a scaled U.S. national security technology and federal IT contractor with rising organic growth, a $33.4 billion backlog, and higher balance-sheet risk after the $2.6 billion ARKA acquisition. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, CACI traded near $486.45 with a verified market value near $10.75 billion. The constructive case rests on FY2025 revenue of $8.6 billion, FY2026 revenue guidance of $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion, free cash flow guidance of at least $725 million, and mission demand across defense, intelligence, and federal civilian programs. The caution is that long-term debt stepped up after ARKA, the stock remains below its 200-day moving average near $497.65, and U.S. government budget timing can change quickly.
Current price
$486.45
Market cap
$10.75 billion verified market cap
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
National security technology and federal services compounder with solid backlog, mid-teens growth, and elevated leverage after the ARKA deal
Trend status
Mixed technical trend: price is above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CACI sells mission-critical IT modernization, cyber, intelligence support, software, electronic warfare, and now EO/IR and geospatial technology to U.S. defense, intelligence, and federal civilian customers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from security clearances, contract incumbency, classified mission knowledge, certified delivery teams, agency relationships, and differentiated technology after the ARKA acquisition. | High |
| Management | CEO John Mengucci is leaning into higher-growth technology markets, completed the $2.6 billion ARKA deal, and is using cash flow for integration, debt service, and selective capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 13% to $8.6 billion and net income rose 19% to $499.8 million. Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 8.5% to $2.351 billion with organic growth of 6.8%. | High |
| Valuation | At $486.45, verified math shows about 20.07x TTM EPS, 2.51x book value, 22.32x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and a 0% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | CACI is above the 50-day moving average near $463.35 but below the 200-day moving average near $497.65, after a large drawdown from the $683.50 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to elevated because CACI has sticky mission demand but also higher debt after ARKA, customer budget exposure, recompete and protest risk, cyber risk, and fixed-price execution risk. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because public data coverage is deep. Forecast confidence is medium because return outcomes depend on integration, policy, rates, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. CACI looks like a quality federal tech franchise, but the stock needs evidence that ARKA integration, cash conversion, and debt paydown stay on track. | Medium |
CACI AI stock forecast
The CACI AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 12, 2026 research cutoff, a $486.45 stock price, $24.24 TTM EPS, and a three-year model, the tested valuation anchors were about $749 in a bull case, $535 in a base case, and $309 in a bear case before any capital-return effects.
$720 to $760
More likely if FY2026 revenue tracks the $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion guide, organic growth stays mid-single-digit or better, ARKA adds space and geospatial demand without margin dilution, free cash flow clears at least $725 million, and investors rerate CACI toward a low-20s earnings multiple on higher EPS.
$520 to $550
More likely if EPS grows at a mid-to-high single-digit rate, backlog near $33.4 billion converts at steady margins, interest expense remains manageable after ARKA financing, and the market values CACI around the high-teens earnings multiple.
$290 to $320
More likely if federal award timing slows, fixed-price contracts compress margins, ARKA integration or goodwill impairment distracts management, debt stays elevated, or the stock is valued closer to a stressed government-services multiple.
CACI AI technical analysis
CACI AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Company investor quote data showed a recent price near $486.45 with market cap near $10.7 billion. Investing.com showed a 50-day moving average near $463.35, a 200-day moving average near $497.65, and a short-term average near $496.37. The 52-week range remains wide, from about $434.70 to $683.50.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $486.45 | Company investor relations quote reference used for valuation and market-cap math at the July 12, 2026 research cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $463 to $465 | This zone uses the Investing.com 50-day moving average near $463.35 as the first important short-term trend floor. |
| Deeper support | $434 to $440 | The 52-week low area near $434.70 is the next major downside reference if the 50-day average fails. |
| Near resistance | $497 to $500 | The 200-day moving average near $497.65 and the short-term average near $496.37 form the first repair zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $463.35 | Price is above this short-term trend marker, which supports a tactical stabilization read after the post-high drawdown. |
| 200-day moving average | $497.65 | Price remains below this long-term trend marker, so the broader technical setup is not fully repaired. |
| Momentum | Recovering but incomplete | Price sits between the 50-day and 200-day averages. Follow-through above $500 would matter more than one strong session. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 290,000 shares | A breakout above $500 should be judged against participation because federal contractors can gap on awards, budget headlines, and acquisition updates. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.54 | CACI has lower market beta, but earnings, award protests, federal budget events, and ARKA integration updates can still move the stock hard. |
| Invalidation | Close below $463 | A close below the 50-day moving average zone would weaken the current stabilization attempt and shift focus back to the $434 to $440 support band. |
CACI AI trading strategy
The CACI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It links price action with FY2026 guidance, backlog conversion, ARKA integration, free cash flow, debt reduction, and valuation discipline. Full-year FY2026 results are scheduled after the market close on a date management set for July 2026 reporting.
Watch for CACI to close above the $497 to $500 resistance zone with convincing volume while earnings confirm FY2026 revenue of $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion, free cash flow of at least $725 million, and stable organic growth.
Treat a failed move above the 200-day average followed by a close below $486 as a warning. A close below $463 weakens the setup.
If CACI pulls back toward $463 to $470 without a cut to revenue guidance, free cash flow guidance, or backlog quality, compare the reset price with the base scenario and debt trajectory after ARKA.
Do not average down only because the PE looks familiar for the sector. Require evidence that contract execution, cash conversion, and leverage are improving.
Track FY2026 results and FY2027 guidance, backlog near $33.4 billion, funded backlog near $5.0 billion, ARKA revenue contribution near $150 million for the stub period, EBITDA margin guidance of 11.8% to 11.9%, interest expense, and long-term debt near $5.18 billion.
Lower the rating if backlog falls while debt remains elevated, if fixed-price programs pressure margins, or if government budget timing causes cash conversion to lag.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CACI because sensitive defense, intelligence, and federal civilian missions need cleared people, secure systems, software modernization, cyber defense, electronic warfare, and increasingly EO/IR and geospatial technology delivered inside regulated environments.
CACI benefits from classified access, federal contract incumbency, technical delivery records, cleared labor, agency relationships, and technology differentiation after ARKA. The moat is strongest where mission knowledge and procurement trust matter more than a generic commercial IT stack.
The thesis fails if backlog converts at weak margins, federal budget priorities shift, award protests delay work, ARKA integration absorbs cash or creates write-downs, debt remains high, or fixed-price contracts create cost overruns.
John Mengucci has emphasized differentiated technology, organic growth, and disciplined M&A. The key management test is converting large contract demand and the ARKA portfolio into free cash flow while reducing leverage after the $2.6 billion all-cash acquisition.
CACI sits in long-duration trends: defense modernization, intelligence analytics, cyber resilience, space and geospatial sensing, electronic warfare, and public-sector digital transformation. Demand is durable but politically funded.
At about 20.07x TTM EPS and 2.51x book value, CACI is not a deep value screen versus some government services peers, but free cash flow guidance of at least $725 million implies a stronger cash yield if delivered. Margin of safety depends on whether cash generation and debt reduction stay intact after ARKA.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CACI quote reference | $486.45 recent price as of the July 12, 2026 research cutoff | CACI investor relations stock quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.75 billion calculated and reported market cap, verified from $486.45 x 22.09 million shares (0.04% variance) | Pineify financial_rigor.py and CACI investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 22.09 million shares outstanding, cross-validated with 0.01% variance across sources | CompaniesMarketCap and CACI investor relations | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $8.6 billion revenue and $499.8 million net income, cross-validated with 0% variance | CACI FY2025 results and StockTitan financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 free cash flow | $481.4 million free cash flow, about $21.79 per share | StockTitan CACI financials and company releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and EPS | $2.351 billion revenue, $130.4 million net income, $5.88 diluted EPS, and $7.27 adjusted diluted EPS | CACI Q3 FY2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 backlog | $33.4 billion total backlog and $5.0 billion funded backlog as of March 31, 2026 | CACI Q3 FY2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 cash and debt | $158.0 million cash and cash equivalents and about $5.18 billion total debt (current plus long-term) | CACI Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | $9.5B to $9.6B revenue, $27.70 to $28.38 adjusted diluted EPS, EBITDA margin 11.8% to 11.9%, and at least $725M free cash flow | CACI Q3 FY2026 results | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day MA $463.35, 200-day MA $497.65, short-term MA near $496.37, 52-week range $434.70 to $683.50 | Investing.com CACI technical analysis and company quote page | July 12, 2026 |
This CACI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, contracts, budgets, rates, or market sentiment change.
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