Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. research snapshot
RYAN AI stock analysis currently reads Ryan Specialty Holdings as a well-positioned specialty insurance broker benefiting from structural growth in the excess and surplus lines market, where it competes through wholesale brokerage, binding authority, and underwriting management. The stock closed near $40.41 on July 10, 2026, with a market cap near $5.23 billion on about 129.47 million shares. FY2025 revenue was about $3.07 billion with GAAP net income of approximately $63 million, while Q1 2026 revenue reached $783 million with GAAP net income of $18 million. The specialty insurance model generates attractive gross margins above 90%, but high interest expense, amortization of intangibles, and a complex post-IPO capital structure compress GAAP net income. The RYAN AI stock forecast treats the company as a high-quality compounder in a fragmented market, but current valuation at roughly 52x trailing EPS offers limited room for error if pricing cycles turn or organic growth slows.
Current price
$40.41
Market cap
$5.23 billion using about 129.47 million shares outstanding, verified within 0.04% of reported market cap math
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Leading specialty insurance broker with structural E&S market tailwinds, high gross margins, and a founder-led culture, but elevated P/E, interest expense, and post-IPO dilution complexity
Trend status
Price bounced from the $29 to $30 area and rallied over 20% in the past month, but remains well below the 52-week high near $68 and the all-time high near $77, so the intermediate trend is recovering but the long-term trend is still damaged
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ryan Specialty provides specialty insurance products and services through wholesale brokerage, binding authority, and underwriting management. Clients pay for access to niche E&S markets that standard carriers avoid, creating high-margin, relationship-driven revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from deep relationships with retail brokers and carriers, specialized underwriting expertise in hard-to-place risks, technology and data advantages in binding authority, and the fragmented nature of the wholesale channel. Scale and reputation matter more than patents. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Timothy Turner leads a company founded by Patrick G. Ryan Sr., a well-known figure in the insurance industry. Management has executed a consistent strategy of organic growth plus disciplined M&A. The capital allocation track record is good but the post-IPO equity structure adds complexity. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached about $3.07 billion, growing at a double-digit rate from prior years. GAAP net income was about $63 million, constrained by approximately $200 million in annual interest expense and significant amortization. Adjusted EBITDA margins were near 30%, reflecting the underlying earnings power of the fee-based model. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $40.41, trailing PE near 52x on TTM GAAP EPS of $0.77 looks expensive. On adjusted EPS estimates of roughly $1.50 to $1.80, the forward PE is in the 22x to 27x range, which is more reasonable for a mid-teens grower but leaves limited safety margin. | Medium |
| Technical trend | RYAN has rallied about 20% from the $33 area in mid-June to the current $40 level, recovering from the $29 to $30 low earlier in 2026. The stock remains in a downtrend from the $68 to $77 highs, so the near-term recovery needs to overcome the $45 to $50 resistance zone to confirm a trend change. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a turn in the E&S pricing cycle, rising interest expense, integration of acquisitions, tax receivable agreement obligations, key-person dependence on the founding team, dilution from equity-based compensation, and a potential hard-landing recession that reduces insurance demand. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for current pricing and reported financials. Forecast confidence is medium because GAAP earnings are distorted by non-cash items, and the gap between reported and adjusted numbers makes normalized earnings estimation less precise. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | RYAN screens as a quality compounder in a fragmented market with structural tailwinds, but the current valuation and GAAP earnings complexity reduce certainty. Certainty improves if organic growth stays above 10% and adjusted earnings expand toward $2.00 per share. | Low to medium |
RYAN AI stock forecast
The RYAN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges to account for the gap between GAAP and adjusted earnings, the insurance cycle, and M&A execution. Using a normalized adjusted EPS assumption of $1.65, 3-year growth inputs of 15%, 10%, and 0%, and terminal multiples of 30x, 22x, and 14x, the audited model produced bullish value near $75.20, base value near $44.00, and bearish value near $16.00. These are scenario ranges, not price promises. The bull case reflects the structural E&S growth story working as expected, while the bear case models a hard pricing cycle reversal or major acquisition misstep.
$65 to $85
More likely if Ryan Specialty sustains organic growth above 12%, executes accretive M&A, expands adjusted EBITDA margins above 32%, repurchases shares, and the market awards a premium multiple between 25x and 30x on adjusted earnings approaching $2.50 per share.
$38 to $50
More likely if organic growth settles near 8% to 10%, M&A continues at a measured pace, adjusted EBITDA margins stay in the 28% to 30% range, and the market values adjusted earnings of $1.80 to $2.00 at 20x to 24x.
$12 to $22
More likely if the E&S pricing cycle turns, organic growth slows below 5%, a large acquisition underperforms, interest expense rises further, or GAAP earnings turn negative, forcing a re-rating toward 10x to 14x on depressed adjusted earnings.
RYAN AI technical analysis
RYAN AI technical analysis uses market data available around the July 12, 2026 cutoff. RYAN closed near $40.41 on July 10, 2026 after a sharp rally from the $33 area in mid-June. The stock hit a 52-week low near $29.28 in early 2026 before recovering. Key resistance sits in the $42 to $50 zone where the stock stalled during previous rallies. The 50-day moving average has likely been reclaimed after the recent bounce, but the 200-day moving average remains well above current price, indicating the long-term trend is still bearish. RSI has moved from oversold to neutral-to-bullish territory, but volume needs to confirm the breakout.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $40.41 | July 10, 2026 close from Google Finance, TradingView, and Investing.com quote summaries. |
| Immediate support | $37.50 to $39.00 | The recent consolidation range before the latest leg up forms the first support zone on pullbacks. |
| Key support | $32.50 to $33.50 | The mid-June 2026 low area that preceded the 20% rally is the critical secondary support. |
| 52-week low support | $29.00 to $29.50 | The 52-week low near $29.28 marks the area where the stock found buying interest earlier in 2026. |
| Near resistance | $42.00 to $44.00 | The stock stalled near $42 to $44 during the May 2026 bounce, making this the first overhead supply zone. |
| Secondary resistance | $48.00 to $50.00 | The $48 to $50 zone was a support-turned-resistance area from the second half of 2025. |
| 52-week high | $67.70 to $77.16 | All-time and 52-week high range from $67.70 (52-week) to $77.16 (ATH in April 2025). Full recovery to these levels requires a fundamental catalyst. |
| 50-day moving average | Estimated near $36 to $38 | The 50-day MA was likely reclaimed during the June-July rally, but the exact value depends on source timing. The band provides intermediate trend context. |
| 200-day moving average | Estimated near $48 to $52 | The 200-day MA is likely well above current price, confirming the long-term trend is still bearish until RYAN reclaims this level. |
| Momentum | RSI moving from neutral to bullish after the June recovery | RSI recovered from oversold territory below 30 in early June to the 50 to 60 range in July, indicating improving short-term momentum. |
| Volume | Elevated during the June-July rally, above the 2.6 million average | Volume picked up noticeably during the recovery from $33 to $40, which supports the near-term bullish case if buying interest continues. |
| Invalidation | Close below $33.00 | A decisive break below the mid-June 2026 low would invalidate the short-term recovery pattern and suggest the downtrend is resuming. |
RYAN AI trading strategy
The RYAN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with organic growth rates, E&S pricing cycle indicators, M&A announcements, adjusted earnings trends, interest expense, and insider buying or selling patterns.
Watch for RYAN to hold above the $37 to $39 support zone, then break through the $42 to $44 near-term resistance on above-average volume while organic growth stays above 8% and adjusted earnings estimates are stable or rising.
A close below $37, slowing organic growth below 6%, or disappointing adjusted earnings guidance should reduce trend-following confidence. Do not chase a rally into $45+ without volume confirmation.
If RYAN pulls back toward the $33 to $35 area near the June 2026 recovery low without a fundamental deterioration in the E&S market or a negative guidance revision, compare the entry with the audited base and bearish scenarios before treating the move as attractive.
Do not treat a pullback as automatically mean-reverting if the broader insurance pricing cycle is turning or if interest expense is rising faster than expected. Wait for stabilization in volume and price action before entry.
Track organic revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted EPS, total M&A spend and integration pace, net interest expense, shares outstanding trends, tax receivable agreement liability, and retail broker and E&S market premium growth data from industry sources.
Position sizing should reflect that RYAN trades at a premium valuation that can compress quickly if growth slows or the cycle turns. Use the bearish scenario as a reference for worst-case drawdown.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ryan Specialty for access to niche insurance markets that standard carriers cannot or will not underwrite. The company earns fees and commissions as a wholesale broker, binding authority manager, and underwriting manager, providing essential distribution in the growing E&S segment.
Ryan Specialty benefits from deep broker and carrier relationships, specialized under talent, technology in binding authority, scale in a fragmented wholesale market, and the growing preference for E&S placement as standard carriers tighten terms. The moat is durable but relationship-driven rather than IP-driven.
The thesis fails if the E&S pricing cycle enters a sustained soft market, organic growth slows sharply, a large acquisition destroys value, interest expense overwhelms operating income, the tax receivable agreement becomes a cash drain, or key underwriting talent leaves for competitors.
Timothy Turner and the leadership team have grown Ryan Specialty from a startup in 2010 to a major E&S broker through organic investment and about 40 acquisitions. Founder Patrick G. Ryan Sr. remains active as executive chair. The capital allocation test is whether they can integrate acquisitions without margin dilution and manage the post-IPO capital structure complexity.
The E&S insurance market continues to grow faster than the standard admitted market, driven by regulatory hardening, climate risk, cyber risk, and standard carrier retrenchment. This structural tailwind benefits wholesale brokers like Ryan Specialty. The industry remains exposed to pricing cycles, consolidation pressure, and technology disruption.
At $40.41, RYAN trades above the audited base case on GAAP earnings and near the base case on adjusted earnings. Margin of safety is limited because the trailing GAAP PE is approximately 52x, adjusted PE is roughly 24x, and the bull case depends on sustained mid-teens growth and margin expansion that may not materialize if the cycle turns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RYAN quote reference | About $40.41 close on July 10, 2026 | Google Finance RYAN:NYSE and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $5.23 billion calculated from $40.41 x 129.47 million shares; tool deviation versus reported $5.23 billion was 0.04% | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Google Finance, and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 129.47 million shares on Google Finance; float about 113.09 million on TradingView | Google Finance and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and GAAP net income | Full-year revenue about $3.07 billion; GAAP net income about $63.4 million; adjusted EBITDA about $954 million | TradingView financials summary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | TTM revenue about $3.10 billion; TTM GAAP EPS about $0.77; trailing PE near 52x | TradingView and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings summary | Quarterly revenue about $782.9 million; GAAP net income $17.65 million; GAAP EPS $0.47; beat consensus EPS estimate of $0.43 | Google Finance Q1 2026 income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Gross margin | Gross margin approximately 92% based on revenue minus cost of goods sold of about 43% of revenue in recent quarters | TradingView financials and Google Finance quarterly data | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics verification | PE 52.48x at $40.41 / $0.77; dividend yield 1.29% at $0.52 / $40.41; PS 1.70x at $40.41 / $23.71 revenue per share | Pineify financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share; annualized $0.52; dividend yield approximately 1.24% to 1.29% | Google Finance and TradingView | July 12, 2026 |
| Interest expense | Total interest and financing expense was approximately $200 million in FY2025, a significant drag on GAAP net income | TradingView financials and quarterly income statement data | July 12, 2026 |
| Price range and volume | 52-week range $29.28 to $67.70; all-time high $77.16 (April 2025); average daily volume about 2.6 million shares | TradingView and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 15 analysts: 8 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell; price target range $31 to $50; mean target approximately $40.62 | Google Finance analyst ratings summary | July 12, 2026 |
This RYAN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Ryan Specialty execution, organic growth, the E&S pricing cycle, M&A results, interest expense, regulation, competition, or market valuation changes.
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