Revolution Medicines, Inc. research snapshot
RVMD AI stock analysis currently reads Revolution Medicines as a late-stage precision-oncology company whose regulatory position strengthened after the U.S. FDA accepted its daraxonrasib new drug application for review on July 22, 2026, for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer. At the August 2, 2026 cutoff, RVMD closed near $187.53 on July 31 with a verified market capitalization of $39.87 billion. Positive Phase 3 RASolute 302 survival data, FDA review acceptance, a European phased review, and a well-funded balance sheet support the long thesis, but the company remains pre-commercial, loss-making, and dependent on approval, launch, pricing, reimbursement, and pipeline execution. This page is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$187.53
Market cap
$39.87 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
FDA review accepted for daraxonrasib; clinically de-risked with high execution and valuation risk
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, pulling back from the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | RVMD develops targeted RAS(ON) inhibitors for RAS-addicted cancers, with daraxonrasib as the lead potential commercial asset and several follow-on programs in clinical development. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on differentiated RAS(ON) science, clinical data, patents, know-how, and a broad pipeline, but it will need regulatory approval, manufacturing scale, physician adoption, and durable outcomes to become an economic moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and chairman Mark A. Goldsmith leads a team that advanced RAS programs, built a U.S. commercialization organization, and raised capital ahead of launch. President of R&D Steve Kelsey plans to step down into a senior advisor role in early 2027, adding transition risk to monitor. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | RVMD remains pre-commercial. TTM net loss was about $1.37 billion, FY2025 net loss was $1.131 billion, Q1 2026 net loss was $453.8 million, and Q1 2026 R&D was $344.0 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $187.53, verified math shows negative PE and negative free-cash-flow yield, while price-to-book is about 25x. Conventional earnings multiples do not yet value the business reliably. | High |
| Technical trend | RVMD traded above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but pulled back from the 52-week high near $194.56. RSI normalized to about 56, and a short-term pivot-top and a 3-month MACD sell signal appeared. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Approval, label, safety, launch, price, reimbursement, competitor, manufacturing, cash-burn, convertible-debt, and dilution risks can all change the valuation quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported facts are well documented, but an AI model cannot resolve the future commercial value of an investigational oncology medicine. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Clinical certainty improved after RASolute 302 and FDA review acceptance, while investment certainty remains lower because the current share price reflects a large portion of a successful launch narrative. | Medium-low |
RVMD AI stock forecast
The RVMD AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a point prediction. The required PE-based three-scenario tool run is not economically meaningful with negative EPS, so these ranges frame regulatory, commercial, financing, and market conditions and the analyst price-target range rather than an asserted intrinsic value.
$230 to $280
More likely if daraxonrasib receives a favorable regulatory decision and broad label, launch and payer access validate premium revenue assumptions, follow-on Phase 3 programs add value, and no major dilution event occurs. The high analyst price target near $263 and StockInvest upside projections sit in this range.
$170 to $210
More likely if regulatory review stays on track, Q2 2026 results confirm rising operating losses, and investors wait for approval, pricing, reimbursement, and real-world uptake evidence while share count continues to rise. The average analyst target is about $207.
$115 to $150
More likely if approval timing, label, safety, manufacturing, payer access, commercial uptake, a follow-on trial, or risk appetite disappoints relative to the expectations embedded in the current market value. The low analyst target is near $151.
RVMD AI technical analysis
RVMD AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 close of $187.53. This static page does not fetch request-time market data. The medium-term trend was positive above the 50-day and 200-day averages, but the stock pulled back from its 52-week high, showed a pivot-top sell signal, and can move sharply around earnings, regulatory, and clinical events.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $187.53 | Closing price used for this static page around the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| 52-week high | $194.56 | Intraday high per the StockAnalysis quote; StockInvest cites $194.42. |
| Accumulated volume resistance | $188.75, $189.24, $192.62 | Three resistance tiers in the July 31 StockInvest snapshot, with the nearest at $188.75. |
| Fibonacci resistance | $190.79 to $194.36 | R1 to R3 Fibonacci resistance levels in the same snapshot. |
| Moving-average support | $187.22 and $179.62 | Short and long moving-average support lines in the July 31 technical read. |
| Volume support | $182.08 | Nearest accumulated-volume support below the latest close. |
| 50-day moving average | $171.61 | StockAnalysis statistics around the cutoff. Price was above this average. |
| 200-day moving average | $115.45 | StockAnalysis statistics around the cutoff. Price was above this average. |
| Momentum | Mixed near-term signals | RSI was about 56, and short and long-term moving averages were positive, but a June 29 pivot-top sell signal and a 3-month MACD sell signal appeared. |
| Volume | Volume fell with price | The July 31 session saw volume below the 20-day average, which reduces confirmation of the recent move and should be checked on a live chart. |
| Volatility | High, 4.13% weekly average daily move | Earnings, regulatory, and clinical news can produce gaps beyond normal technical levels. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $182 | A break of accumulated-volume support near $182.08, and then moving-average support near $179.62, would weaken the short-term continuation framework. |
RVMD AI trading strategy
The RVMD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not a personalized instruction. It links price action to FDA and EMA review milestones, the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, commercialization milestones, quarterly cash burn, share count, and upcoming clinical readouts.
Wait for RVMD to clear $188.75 and $192.62 with volume confirmation and check that there is no new regulatory, trial, financing, or competitive information changing the thesis.
Define risk before entry. A failed breakout or sustained close below $182 can serve as a rules-based invalidation condition rather than a reason to average down automatically.
If RVMD pulls back toward $182 or the moving-average support near $179.62 without a deterioration in regulatory, safety, or launch evidence, review price stabilization alongside cash runway, share count, and the next material company update.
Do not treat a lower price as proof of value. Reassess the setup if the pullback follows new clinical, approval, financing, or market-access information.
Track the daraxonrasib FDA and EMA review timeline, label language, safety data, launch preparation, payer access, product revenue, operating expense, cash and marketable securities, convertible debt, share count, and pipeline readouts.
Refresh the scenario ranges after every material clinical, regulatory, earnings, or financing update. Pre-commercial valuation can change faster than a mature-company multiple.
Investment research summary
Revolution Medicines seeks to create medicines for RAS-addicted cancers. Future customers would pay if its therapies produce clinically meaningful outcomes that physicians can use, regulators approve, and health systems reimburse.
Its potential moat is RAS(ON) chemistry, clinical evidence, patents, development know-how, and a pipeline spanning several RAS variants. This moat is promising but not fully proven economically before approval and launch.
The thesis can fail if approval is delayed or narrower than expected, safety limits uptake, manufacturing or reimbursement constrains access, competitors advance, sales ramp slowly, cash burn forces more dilution, or later trials disappoint.
Management developed multiple RAS(ON) programs, expanded commercial capabilities, and raised capital before potential launch. The next test is converting scientific progress into a disciplined regulatory and commercial organization while managing the planned R&D leadership transition.
Precision oncology is a durable medical need, and RAS mutations affect several large cancer populations. The opportunity is real, but oncology markets require proof across efficacy, safety, label, sequencing, payer access, and physician behavior.
The verified $39.87 billion market capitalization prices in substantial future commercial success. With negative earnings and free cash flow, margin of safety depends on clinical durability, approval, launch execution, and future financing rather than a mature earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RVMD price | $187.53 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $39.87 billion, verified with financial_rigor.py using $187.53 and 212.60 million shares at 0.00% variance | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 212.60 million, with shares up 10.96% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM loss and EPS | TTM net income about -$1.37 billion with EPS about -$7.12, and TTM free cash flow about -$1.07 billion | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss and Q1 2026 loss | FY2025 net loss of $1.131 billion and Q1 2026 net loss of $453.8 million, cross-validated against quarterly income statement data | StockAnalysis income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash position | About $1.91 billion in cash and short-term investments at March 31, 2026, on the balance sheet | StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from about 22 analysts with an average price target of $207, a low of $151, and a high of $263 | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| FDA review acceptance | U.S. FDA accepted the daraxonrasib new drug application for review on July 22, 2026, for previously treated metastatic pancreatic cancer | Revolution Medicines press release via GlobeNewsWire | August 2, 2026 |
| European phased review | The EMA CHMP began a phased review of daraxonrasib data announced on July 7, 2026 | Revolution Medicines press release via GlobeNewsWire and Reuters | August 2, 2026 |
| RASolute 302 Phase 3 result | Median overall survival of 13.2 months with daraxonrasib versus 6.7 months with chemotherapy in the overall population, hazard ratio 0.40; median PFS 7.3 versus 3.5 months and ORR 31.6% versus 11.2% in the RAS G12 population | Revolution Medicines ASCO 2026 results and conference call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and balance sheet | Negative PE and FCF yield, about 25x book value, $1.91 billion cash, $437.27 million total debt, and net cash near $1.47 billion in the current third-party statistics snapshot | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Resistance near $188.75, $189.24, and $192.62, support near $187.22, $182.08, and $179.62, with 4.13% weekly average daily volatility and RSI near 56 | StockInvest RVMD technical snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 financial results scheduled for after market close on August 5, 2026 | Revolution Medicines press release via GlobeNewsWire | August 2, 2026 |
This RVMD page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Clinical, regulatory, commercial, financing, and market outcomes can change quickly, and users should verify current information and consider professional advice before making an investment decision.
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