Merck & Co., Inc. research snapshot
MRK AI stock analysis reads Merck & Co., Inc. as a high-quality biopharma company trading near its 52-week high after a strong run. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, MRK closed near $130.20 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $321.57 billion. The positive case rests on Keytruda and the subcutaneous Keytruda Qlex launch, Winrevair growth, the July 2026 FDA approval of LIPFENDRA, the first oral PCSK9 inhibitor, positive HIV and oncology trial data, and a raised 2026 sales and EPS outlook. The risk case centers on the 2028 Keytruda loss of exclusivity, Gardasil weakness, one-time acquisition charges that pushed 2026 EPS estimates lower, an elevated valuation, and execution risk across a large business development program. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$130.20
Market cap
$321.57 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality pharma franchise with pipeline momentum and Keytruda concentration risk
Trend status
Uptrend near 52-week highs, above all major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Merck sells prescription medicines, vaccines, and animal health products, with Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex forming the largest profit engine. Q1 2026 total sales rose 5% to $16.286 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from patents, clinical evidence, regulatory approvals, physician familiarity, payer access, manufacturing scale, and a global oncology commercial footprint, strongest in immuno-oncology. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Robert M. Davis is using business development, pipeline investment, and reorganization to prepare for Keytruda exclusivity pressure, and raised the 2026 sales and non-GAAP EPS outlook. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales rose 1.3% to $65.011 billion. Q1 2026 sales rose 5%, but Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP EPS turned negative because of the $3.62 per share Cidara acquisition charge. | High |
| Valuation | At $130.20, MRK traded near 36.4x TTM GAAP EPS (distorted by the Cidara charge), about 21x forward EPS, 22.8x TTM free cash flow per share, 7.0x book value, and a 2.61% dividend yield. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock was above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages and within about 4% of its 52-week high of $135.05, supporting momentum but leaving little room for a weak Q2 print. | Medium |
| Risk level | The biggest risks are the 2028 Keytruda loss of exclusivity, Gardasil demand weakness, clinical trial failure, regulatory timing, acquisition integration, rising debt, and a stretched multiple. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and arithmetic checks. Lower for exact stock outcomes because healthcare stocks can reprice around trial data, FDA decisions, patents, guidance, and deal charges. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Merck is a durable company with a better pipeline than a year ago, but a buy decision depends on whether the pipeline can offset Keytruda concentration at the current valuation. | Medium |
MRK AI stock forecast
The MRK AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $130.20 and the FY2027 consensus adjusted EPS near $9.68 as a normalized earnings base, because FY2026 EPS is depressed by one-time Cidara and Terns charges. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $82, a base area near $142, and a bullish area near $195 before dividends. These are planning scenarios, not price commitments.
$180 to $200
More likely if Keytruda Qlex and earlier-stage oncology use extend durability, Winrevair and LIPFENDRA compound, Gardasil stabilizes, HIV candidates advance, late-stage assets hit, and investors value MRK near a high-teens earnings multiple.
$132 to $152
More likely if normalized EPS grows at a low single digit rate, Keytruda erosion is manageable, business development partly fills the gap, and the market applies a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$72 to $92
More likely if Keytruda losses accelerate after exclusivity changes, Gardasil remains weak, pipeline launches disappoint, acquisition charges dilute returns, or the market compresses MRK toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
MRK AI technical analysis
MRK AI technical analysis was constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. MRK closed near $130.20 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day moving average near $127.32, 50-day near $122.86, 100-day near $119.26, and 200-day near $111.59, with 14-day RSI near 58.6 and the 52-week high of $135.05 as the main overhead resistance. Confirm live chart data before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $130.20 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 2.47 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $127 to $129 | The 20-day moving average near $127.32 is the first natural pullback support zone below the close. |
| Next support | $119 to $123 | The 50-day moving average near $122.86 and the 100-day moving average near $119.26 form a support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $135 | The immediate overhead is the recent high near $131, with the 52-week high of $135.05 as the larger resistance. |
| 20-day moving average | About $127.32 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $127.32, below the current price and acting as short-term support. |
| 50-day moving average | About $122.86 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $122.86 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | About $119.26 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $119.26, below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | About $111.59 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $111.59, well below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.6 | Barchart listed 14-day RSI near 58.58 on July 31, 2026, positive but not yet overbought, with 14-day stochastic %K near 67. |
| Volume | About 8.58 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 8.58 million shares on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 26% and a 14-day average true range near $3.28, so position sizing should allow for wider daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $127, then $119 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $127 would weaken the short-term setup. A close below the 100-day area near $119 would turn the medium-term trend bearish. |
MRK AI trading strategy
The MRK AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a large-cap biopharma stock trading near resistance with material patent-cycle risk. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, event calendars, and position sizing rules.
Watch for MRK to hold above the 20-day moving average near $127 and to build volume above the 8.5 million share average on a push toward the $131 area and then the 52-week high of $135.05.
A close below $127, a failed breakout, or a weak Q2 2026 earnings print on August 4 should invalidate the short-term setup.
If MRK pulls back toward the $119 to $123 support cluster without new Keytruda, Gardasil, guidance, or trial-data damage, compare the selloff with normalized earnings power and free cash flow.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because patent and regulatory events can turn a technical support level into a thesis break.
Track Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex, Winrevair, LIPFENDRA launch, Gardasil, Animal Health, HIV portfolio data, Terns and Cidara integration, late-stage oncology assets, cash conversion, debt, dividend coverage, and 2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on multiple expansion or acquisitions rather than durable product-level sales, approvals, and cash conversion.
Investment research summary
Merck converts scientific research, regulatory approval, clinical evidence, physician trust, and global distribution into recurring revenue from patented medicines, vaccines, and animal health products.
The moat is strongest in oncology where patents, trial data, approved indications, prescriber familiarity, manufacturing know-how, and payer access reinforce each other. It narrows when exclusivity expires or a rival offers better efficacy, safety, convenience, or cost.
The thesis fails if Keytruda revenue falls faster than replacement products scale, Gardasil remains pressured, clinical assets disappoint, acquisitions destroy capital, or regulation and pricing pressure reduce margins.
Robert M. Davis became CEO in 2021 and chairman in 2022. Management is pushing business development, including Cidara and Terns, reorganization, and pipeline investment to reduce dependence on Keytruda before the largest patent-cycle test arrives.
Biopharma benefits from aging demographics, oncology innovation, cardiometabolic demand, HIV prevention advances, vaccines, and animal health needs, but the industry faces patent cliffs, payer pressure, political scrutiny, litigation, and binary clinical outcomes.
MRK is not priced as a distressed patent-cliff stock, but after a roughly 59% one-year gain it is also less of a bargain than a year ago. Margin of safety depends on whether normalized earnings and free cash flow can hold through the Keytruda transition.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRK price | $130.20 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $321.57 billion, verified as $130.20 x 2.47 billion shares with 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 2.47 billion, down 1.79% year over year, about 0.05% insider and 80.82% institutional ownership | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 total sales | $16.286 billion, up 5% as reported and 3% ex-FX, from $15.529 billion | Merck Q1 2026 earnings release | April 30, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 EPS | GAAP loss per share of $1.72 and non-GAAP loss per share of $1.28, both including the $3.62 per share Cidara charge | Merck Q1 2026 earnings release | April 30, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales | $8.034 billion, up 12% as reported and 8% ex-FX, including $128 million of Keytruda Qlex | Merck Q1 2026 earnings release | April 30, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Winrevair and Gardasil sales | Winrevair $525 million up 88%, Gardasil/Gardasil 9 $1.069 billion down 19%, Animal Health $1.791 billion up 13% | Merck Q1 2026 earnings release | April 30, 2026 |
| Updated 2026 guidance | Worldwide sales of $65.8 billion to $67.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $5.04 to $5.16, including the $3.62 per share Cidara charge | Merck Q1 2026 earnings release | April 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 reported sales and net income | Sales $65.011 billion and net income $18.254 billion | Merck 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment sales | Pharmaceutical $58.142 billion and Animal Health $6.354 billion | Merck 2025 Form 10-K segment table and StockAnalysis.com | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $65.77 billion, net income $8.94 billion, EPS $3.58, and free cash flow $14.12 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and investments about $5.70 billion and total debt about $49.12 billion at March 31, 2026, implying net cash near negative $43.42 billion | Merck Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.40 annualized per share, about 2.61% yield, quarterly dividend of $0.85, 15 years of dividend growth, ex-dividend date September 15, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Merck dividend press release | August 1, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 36.41x trailing PE, 21.09x forward PE, 4.89x sales, 7.01x book value, 22.78x free cash flow, 2.78% earnings yield, and 4.39% FCF yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy across 28 analysts with an average target of $135.19, low of $105, median of $139, and high of $155 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global) | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Barclays $150, Wells Fargo $150, Bank of America $141, Goldman Sachs $137, BMO Capital $142, JPMorgan $140, and Bernstein Hold at $100 | StockAnalysis.com news and forecast latest forecasts | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $66.89 billion with adjusted EPS $2.76 (depressed by charges), FY2027 revenue $70.17 billion with adjusted EPS $9.68 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 29.36 million shares short, 1.19% of shares outstanding, about 2.59 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $77.53 to $135.05, up about 59% over the trailing year | StockAnalysis.com overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $127.32, 50-day SMA near $122.86, 100-day SMA near $119.26, 200-day SMA near $111.59, and 14-day RSI near 58.58 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
This MRK AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Merck & Co., Inc., or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, patents, clinical data, regulation, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
