Dollar Tree, Inc. research snapshot
DLTR AI stock analysis currently reads Dollar Tree as a focused value retailer after the Family Dollar divestiture, with fiscal 2026 guidance raised, first-quarter same-store sales up 3.5%, adjusted EPS up 38.1%, and free cash flow improving. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, DLTR traded near $122.65 with a verified market capitalization near $23.57 billion, about 19.7x trailing earnings and 16.0x free cash flow per share. The DLTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside depends on multi-price format adoption, store growth, margin discipline, and traffic stabilization, while downside appears if price increases weaken traffic, tariffs lift costs, or competition from Walmart, Dollar General, and grocery channels compresses margins. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$122.65
Market cap
$23.57 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Focused discount retail turnaround with improving margins, but limited margin of safety until traffic and multi-price execution prove durable
Trend status
Constructive but not clean, with price near the short-term moving-average band and above most 200-day references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dollar Tree sells low-ticket consumables, seasonal items, discretionary goods, and household products through a focused Dollar Tree U.S. and Canada store base after the Family Dollar sale. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from value perception, small-box convenience, purchasing scale, store density, private-label opportunity, and the treasure-hunt element. Switching costs are low, so price trust and execution matter every week. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Mike Creedon has a cleaner operating mandate after the Family Dollar divestiture and is pushing assortment relevance, cost control, store conditions, and multi-price penetration. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 net sales grew 7.2% to $5.0 billion, comparable store net sales rose 3.5%, operating income rose 23.2% to $473 million, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 38.1% to $1.74. | High |
| Valuation | At $122.65, DLTR screens near 19.70x trailing EPS, 17.15x forward EPS, 6.76x book value, 1.19x sales, 15.95x free cash flow per share, and 1.25x PEG. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above most 200-day references and near the short-term moving-average band. RSI references around the low 60s suggest constructive but not washed-out momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are weaker traffic, tariff and freight costs, wage inflation, shrink, inventory misreads, multi-price backlash, competition, lease and debt burden, and multiple compression if FY2026 guidance is missed. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party financial data are current and mostly consistent. Forecast confidence is lower because the turnaround depends on execution and investor multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DLTR has a credible recovery setup, but it is not a high-certainty compounder at any price because discount retail has low switching costs and tight operating margins. | Medium |
DLTR AI stock forecast
The DLTR AI stock forecast uses the $122.65 quote reference, TTM EPS of $6.36, FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.70 to $7.10, and a three-year scenario model. The audited framework produced a bullish area near $214, a base area near $156, and a bearish area near $95 before any buyback impact.
$200 to $220
More likely if comparable store sales stay in the 3% to 4% guidance range, traffic stabilizes, multi-price stores lift basket size without hurting visits, tariffs are managed, and investors pay around 24x earnings for a cleaner Dollar Tree story.
$145 to $160
More likely if EPS compounds near 7%, FY2026 adjusted EPS lands near the $6.70 to $7.10 range, free cash flow stays healthy, and DLTR trades near 20x earnings.
$90 to $100
More likely if traffic declines persist, price-sensitive customers reject higher tickets, tariffs or shrink pressure gross margin, store growth underperforms, or investors re-rate DLTR toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
DLTR AI technical analysis
DLTR AI technical analysis is constructive but not definitive as of the July 8, 2026 cutoff. The $122.65 reference price is near short-term moving-average readings and above most 200-day references, while RSI readings near the low 60s imply positive momentum that is not yet extreme.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $122.65 | StockAnalysis quote reference used for market-cap and valuation checks at the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $120 to $123 | Area around the current quote and short-term moving-average band. A hold here would support the constructive setup. |
| Lower support | $110 to $114 | Zone around published 200-day moving-average references. A break below this area would weaken the post-Q1 recovery pattern. |
| Near resistance | $125 to $126 | Area around the StockAnalysis average analyst target of $125.83 and recent trading resistance. |
| Higher resistance | $140 to $142 | Area below the 52-week high where investors would likely retest whether the turnaround deserves a higher multiple. |
| Moving averages | 50-day references around $104.93 to $122.45, 200-day references around $110.38 to $113.95 | Public technical sources differ, so this page treats the moving-average band as a zone rather than one exact number. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61 | Momentum is positive but not a reliable standalone buy signal. Confirmation should come from price holding support and fundamentals staying on plan. |
| Volume | Recent volume above 3 million shares in some July references | Watch whether any breakout above resistance comes with above-average participation rather than a low-volume drift. |
| Volatility | 52-week range roughly $84 to $142 | The wide range reflects turnaround sensitivity, earnings revisions, and investor debate over the multi-price strategy. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $110 | A durable break below the 200-day support zone would shift the setup from constructive recovery to failed momentum. |
DLTR AI trading strategy
The DLTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It links price behavior with same-store sales, traffic versus ticket, gross margin, tariff exposure, free cash flow, buybacks, store openings, and multi-price conversion progress.
Watch for DLTR to hold above $120 to $123 and break through $125 to $126 while Q2 commentary confirms comparable sales, traffic, gross margin, and FY2026 EPS guidance remain intact.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $110 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management cites traffic pressure, tariff costs, or weaker discretionary demand.
If DLTR pulls back toward $110 to $114 without a guidance cut, compare the lower price with updated EPS, free cash flow yield, share repurchases, and the analyst target range.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the decline is tied to falling traffic, weak multi-price adoption, higher shrink, or lower store productivity.
Track same-store sales, traffic, average ticket, consumables versus discretionary mix, gross margin, freight, tariffs, shrink, store openings, closures, multi-price conversions, operating cash flow, free cash flow, debt, and repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that dollar-store earnings can move sharply when a small change in traffic, tariff cost, or gross margin hits a thin-margin model.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dollar Tree for low absolute prices, convenience, small-basket trips, seasonal discovery, and the ability to buy essentials without committing to large package sizes. The shareholder case is built on traffic, basket expansion, store growth, procurement scale, and cost discipline.
The moat is moderate. Dollar Tree has brand recognition, value perception, store density, supplier scale, and a growing multi-price assortment, but consumer switching costs are low and competitors can attack price, convenience, or assortment at any time.
The thesis fails if multi-price changes reduce the value perception, traffic stays negative, tariffs and freight costs outrun pricing, shrink rises, store standards slip, or the Family Dollar divestiture leaves less scale without enough focus benefits.
Mike Creedon became CEO after serving as COO and now has a simpler portfolio to run. The key capital allocation question is whether buybacks, store openings, and multi-price investments are timed well while the company still carries material lease and debt obligations.
Value retail benefits from trade-down behavior, budget pressure, smaller pack sizes, convenience, and frequent trips. The offset is that the same macro stress can reduce discretionary purchases and make customers more sensitive to every price change.
The current price embeds a successful turnaround assumption rather than a distressed retailer multiple. The base case has upside if EPS compounds and the multiple holds, but margin of safety narrows if traffic, tariffs, or shrink weaken the FY2026 guidance path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR quote reference | $122.65 and $23.57 billion market cap as of the July 8, 2026 StockAnalysis reference | StockAnalysis market cap data | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $23.57 billion calculated from $122.65 x 192.17 million shares, matching the reported $23.57 billion market cap | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Share count and insider ownership | 192.17 million shares outstanding, with insider ownership listed at 0.12% | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Net sales $5.0 billion, comparable store net sales up 3.5%, operating income $473 million, diluted EPS $1.76, adjusted diluted EPS $1.74 | Dollar Tree Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and free cash flow | $1.0 billion cash and cash equivalents, $644 million operating cash flow from continuing operations, and $392 million free cash flow | Dollar Tree Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Net sales from continuing operations $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, comparable store net sales up 3% to 4%, adjusted diluted EPS $6.70 to $7.10 | Dollar Tree Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 continuing operations | FY2025 net sales growth 10%, comparable store net sales growth 5.3%, diluted EPS from continuing operations $5.94, adjusted diluted EPS $5.75 | Dollar Tree FY2025 earnings release filed with the SEC | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 19.70, forward PE 17.15, PB 6.76, P/FCF 15.95, PEG 1.25, EV/EBITDA 12.54 | StockAnalysis statistics and valuation data | July 8, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and free cash flow history | StockAnalysis TTM revenue $19.75 billion, FY2025 revenue $19.41 billion, TTM free cash flow $1.56 billion, TTM free cash flow per share $7.70 | StockAnalysis financial statements | July 8, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast range | Average analyst target $125.83, low $85, high $170, with Hold consensus from 27 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast data based on S&P Global analyst data | July 8, 2026 |
| Family Dollar divestiture | Dollar Tree completed the sale of Family Dollar on July 7, 2025, leaving the company focused on Dollar Tree U.S. and Canada banners | Dollar Tree divestiture press release | July 8, 2026 |
| Management context | Mike Creedon was named CEO in December 2024 after joining Dollar Tree as COO in October 2022 | Dollar Tree executive leadership page | July 8, 2026 |
This DLTR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a price guarantee, or a recommendation to buy or sell Dollar Tree stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, or market sentiment change.
