Dollar Tree, Inc. research snapshot
DLTR AI stock analysis reads Dollar Tree as a value retail turnaround that is executing. Q1 fiscal 2026 comparable store net sales rose 3.5%, adjusted diluted EPS rose 38.1%, fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $6.70 to $7.10, and the board replenished a $2.5 billion share repurchase authorization. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, DLTR closed near $127.21 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization of about $24.45 billion, about 20.4x trailing earnings and 17.8x forward earnings. The DLTR AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise prediction: upside depends on multi-price execution, traffic stabilization, buyback-driven per-share growth, and tariff management, while downside appears if price increases keep traffic negative, tariffs lift costs, or competition from Walmart, Dollar General, and grocery channels compresses margins. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$127.21
Market cap
$24.45 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Executing value retail turnaround with raised fiscal 2026 guidance and a replenished buyback, but priced near the consensus target with limited margin of safety
Trend status
Constructive, with price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages and momentum positive but not overbought
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dollar Tree sells low-ticket consumables, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods through a focused Dollar Tree U.S. and Canada store base after the Family Dollar sale, ending Q1 fiscal 2026 with 9,382 stores. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from value perception, small-box convenience, purchasing scale, store density, private-label opportunity, and the treasure-hunt element. Switching costs are low, so price trust and execution matter every week. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Mike Creedon is executing a cleaner operating mandate after the Family Dollar divestiture, with Q1 fiscal 2026 margin expansion, raised fiscal 2026 guidance, and disciplined capital allocation including a replenished $2.5 billion buyback authorization. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 fiscal 2026 net sales grew 7.2% to $5.0 billion, comparable store net sales rose 3.5%, operating income rose 23.2% to $473 million, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 38.1% to $1.74. | High |
| Valuation | At $127.21, DLTR screens near 20.4x trailing EPS, 17.8x forward EPS, 7.0x book value, 1.24x sales, 16.6x free cash flow, and 1.29x PEG, with the price essentially at the consensus analyst target. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 58, constructive but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 29 showing a strengthening trend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are traffic still down 1.0% in Q1 fiscal 2026, tariffs and freight costs, shrink, wage inflation, multi-price backlash, competition, store closures, debt and lease burden, and multiple compression if fiscal 2026 guidance is missed. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official releases and StockAnalysis align on the main data. Forecast confidence is lower because execution, consumer trade-down behavior, and tariffs can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | DLTR has a credible recovery setup with improving margins, buyback support, and raised guidance, but it is not a high-certainty compounder at any price because discount retail has low switching costs, thin margins, and a price now near consensus. | Medium |
DLTR AI stock forecast
The DLTR AI stock forecast uses the $127.21 quote reference, fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.70 to $7.10, and a three-year scenario model. The audited framework produced a bullish area near $210 to $230, a base area near $145 to $160, and a bearish area near $90 to $100 before any additional buyback impact.
$210 to $230
More likely if comparable store sales hold in the 3% to 4% range, traffic turns positive, multi-price stores lift basket size, tariffs are managed, buybacks continue, and investors pay around 20x to 21x earnings for a cleaner Dollar Tree story.
$145 to $160
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near a mid single-digit to low double-digit rate, fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS lands near the $6.70 to $7.10 range, free cash flow stays healthy, and DLTR trades near 17x to 18x earnings.
$90 to $100
More likely if traffic declines persist, price-sensitive customers reject higher tickets, tariffs or shrink pressure gross margin, store growth underperforms, or investors re-rate DLTR toward a mid-teens earnings multiple.
DLTR AI technical analysis
DLTR AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The $127.21 reference price is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, while 14-day RSI near 58 and 14-day ADX near 29 point to positive momentum that is strengthening but not yet extreme.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $127.21 | StockAnalysis quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 192.17 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $124 to $125 | Area around the 20-day moving average of $124.77 as of July 31, 2026. |
| Next support | $116 to $117 | Zone around the 50-day moving average of $116.56; a break would signal short-term weakness. |
| Support cluster | $113 to $115 | Area around the 200-day moving average of $113.48 and the year-to-date reference near $114.75. |
| Near resistance | $128 to $130 | Area around the consensus average target of $127.32 and recent trading highs. |
| Higher resistance | $135 to $143 | Zone leading to the 52-week high of $142.40, where investors would test whether the turnaround deserves a higher multiple. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $124.77, 50-day $116.56, 100-day $109.30, 200-day $113.48 | Barchart technical snapshot as of July 31, 2026; all four reference levels sit below the current price. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 58, 14-day ADX near 29 | Momentum is positive and strengthening but not a reliable standalone buy signal. Confirmation should come from price holding support and fundamentals staying on plan. |
| Volume | About 2.67 million average 20-day shares | Barchart reported average 20-day volume near 2.67 million shares, useful for checking whether a breakout comes with real participation. |
| Volatility | 14-day historic volatility near 33% | Volatility is elevated enough that position sizing should account for earnings and macro swings; 50-day historic volatility is higher near 52%. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $113 to $115 | A durable break below the 200-day support zone would shift the setup from constructive recovery to failed momentum; a close below the 50-day near $116.56 is an early warning. |
DLTR AI trading strategy
The DLTR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It links price behavior with same-store sales, traffic versus ticket, gross margin, tariff exposure, free cash flow, buybacks, store openings, and multi-price conversion progress.
Watch for DLTR to hold above the 20-day moving average near $125 and build volume on a move through $128 to $130 while Q2 commentary confirms comparable sales, traffic, gross margin, and fiscal 2026 EPS guidance remain intact.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day near $116.56 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management cites traffic pressure, tariff costs, or weaker discretionary demand.
If DLTR pulls back toward the $116 to $125 support zone without a guidance cut, compare the lower price with updated EPS, free cash flow yield, share repurchases, and the analyst target range.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically cheap if the decline is tied to falling traffic, weak multi-price adoption, higher shrink, or lower store productivity.
Track same-store sales, traffic, average ticket, consumables versus discretionary mix, gross margin, freight, tariffs, shrink, store openings, closures, multi-price conversions, operating cash flow, free cash flow, debt, and repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that dollar-store earnings can move sharply when a small change in traffic, tariff cost, or gross margin hits a thin-margin model.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dollar Tree for low absolute prices, convenience, small-basket trips, seasonal discovery, and the ability to buy essentials without committing to large package sizes. The shareholder case is built on traffic, basket expansion, store growth, procurement scale, and cost discipline.
The moat is moderate. Dollar Tree has brand recognition, value perception, store density, supplier scale, and a growing multi-price assortment, but consumer switching costs are low and competitors can attack price, convenience, or assortment at any time.
The thesis fails if multi-price changes reduce the value perception, traffic stays negative, tariffs and freight costs outrun pricing, shrink rises, store standards slip, or the replenished buyback program consumes cash without durable sales growth.
Mike Creedon became CEO in December 2024 and now runs a simpler portfolio after the Family Dollar sale. Q1 fiscal 2026 delivered margin expansion and raised guidance, and the June 2026 block trade plus July 2026 $2.5 billion buyback authorization show an active capital allocation stance, while the Mantle Ridge-linked selling stockholder block trade adds a supply consideration.
Value retail benefits from trade-down behavior, budget pressure, smaller pack sizes, convenience, and frequent trips. The offset is that the same macro stress can reduce discretionary purchases and make customers more sensitive to every price change.
The current price is close to the consensus analyst target, so the market already embeds a successful turnaround assumption. The base case has modest upside if EPS compounds and the multiple holds, but margin of safety narrows if traffic, tariffs, or shrink weaken the fiscal 2026 guidance path.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR quote reference | $127.21 close and $24.45 billion market cap as of the July 31, 2026 StockAnalysis reference | StockAnalysis market cap data | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $24.45 billion calculated from $127.21 x 192.17 million shares, matching the reported $24.45 billion market cap with 0.02% deviation | StockAnalysis statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Share count and ownership | 192.17 million shares outstanding, down 5.81% year over year, with insider ownership at 0.13% | StockAnalysis statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 operating results | Net sales $5.0 billion, comparable store net sales up 3.5%, operating income $473 million, diluted EPS $1.76, adjusted diluted EPS $1.74 | Dollar Tree Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | May 28, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 cash and free cash flow | $1.0 billion cash, $644 million operating cash flow from continuing operations, and $392 million free cash flow | Dollar Tree Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | May 28, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance raised | Net sales from continuing operations $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, comparable store net sales up 3% to 4%, adjusted diluted EPS $6.70 to $7.10 | Dollar Tree Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | May 28, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 outlook | Net sales $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion, comparable store net sales up 2.5% to 3.5%, adjusted diluted EPS $1.00 to $1.15 | Dollar Tree Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | May 28, 2026 |
| FY2025 continuing operations | FY2025 net sales up 10.4% to $19.4 billion, comparable store net sales up 5.3%, diluted EPS from continuing operations $5.94, adjusted diluted EPS $5.75 | Dollar Tree fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings release | March 16, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 20.44, forward PE 17.76, PB 7.01, P/FCF 16.55, PS 1.24, PEG 1.29, EV/EBITDA 12.84 | StockAnalysis statistics and valuation data | August 1, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $1.01 billion cash and cash equivalents, $7.59 billion total debt, $6.59 billion net debt, $18.13 book value per share | StockAnalysis statistics and balance sheet | August 1, 2026 |
| Free cash flow history | TTM operating cash flow $2.62 billion, TTM free cash flow $1.48 billion, TTM free cash flow per share $7.69 | StockAnalysis financial statements | August 1, 2026 |
| Analyst forecast range | Average analyst target $127.32, low $85, high $170, median $127, with Hold consensus from 27 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast data based on S&P Global analyst data | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell, 2 Strong Sell out of 27 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs upgraded to Neutral from Sell at $125, Raymond James upgraded to Outperform at $140, JPMorgan raised to $170, Bernstein raised to $127 | StockAnalysis forecast latest forecasts and TipRanks | July 8 to July 31, 2026 |
| Share repurchase authorization | Board replenished the share repurchase authorization to $2.5 billion on July 2, 2026 | Dollar Tree press release | July 2, 2026 |
| Mantle Ridge block trade | Selling stockholders sold 12,820,400 shares in a June 25, 2026 block trade, with Dollar Tree repurchasing $500 million of stock from Goldman Sachs | Dollar Tree press release | June 25, 2026 |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 buybacks | Repurchased 5.5 million shares for $595 million in Q1 fiscal 2026, with Q2 quarter-to-date repurchases of $98 million | Dollar Tree Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings release | May 28, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day MA $124.77, 50-day MA $116.56, 100-day MA $109.30, 200-day MA $113.48, 14-day RSI 58.03, 14-day ADX 29.42 | Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.20 million shares short, 5.83% of shares outstanding, 3.01 days to cover | StockAnalysis statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation model | Three-scenario model produced bullish near $220, base near $152, and bearish near $95 using fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and three-year growth and multiple assumptions | Pineify financial_rigor.py three-scenario | August 2, 2026 |
This DLTR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a price guarantee, or a recommendation to buy or sell Dollar Tree stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical conditions, tariffs, consumer demand, or market sentiment change.
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