Bullish case
$170 to $195
More likely if the transaction terms improve or a competing outcome emerges, or if a standalone Roku sustains strong platform growth, advertising gains, margin expansion, and free-cash-flow growth after any deal change.
Roku, Inc. research snapshot
ROKU AI Stock Analysis
ROKU AI stock analysis sees Roku as a scaled connected-TV platform with stronger advertising, subscription, and free-cash-flow momentum, but with an unusually important event risk: Fox announced an agreement to acquire Roku in June 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, ROKU last closed at $140.69 and the mechanically verified market capitalization was about $20.78 billion. This Roku AI stock analysis uses scenarios rather than a certain price prediction and is an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$140.69
Market cap
$20.78 billion
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Improving platform economics, with deal, advertising, and valuation uncertainty
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages, while the pending Fox transaction dominates the setup
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Roku has SEC filings, official shareholder letters, detailed operating metrics, active market data, and broad third-party coverage.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is extrapolating recent advertising and free-cash-flow gains while underweighting the proposed Fox transaction, approval risk, platform competition, content-partner dependence, and the cyclicality of advertising demand.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported financials, operating metrics, share count, market-cap math, and announced transaction terms. Medium for valuation and price scenarios because approval outcomes, Fox share-price movement, advertising, and competition remain uncertain.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. Roku has improving operating evidence, but the stock is currently driven as much by the proposed transaction and its conditions as by standalone business execution.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Roku monetizes a large connected-TV audience through advertising, subscriptions, content distribution, and devices that help grow the platform. | High |
| Moat | Roku benefits from household reach, TV-maker distribution, user-interface placement, audience data, and advertiser relationships, though large ecosystems can compete aggressively. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Anthony Wood has prioritized platform monetization, free cash flow per share, and buybacks, but the proposed Fox deal changes the capital-allocation and key-person context. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.737 billion and net income was $88.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 22% to $1.249 billion, platform revenue reached $1.131 billion, and TTM free cash flow reached $538.8 million. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 10 close, verified TTM PE was about 125.62x and P/FCF was about 38.55x. These standalone multiples leave little room for a monetization or margin miss. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ROKU was above the cited 50-day average near $128.95 and 200-day average near $107.51, but pending-deal headlines can override ordinary chart signals. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because transaction approval, Fox stock consideration, advertising demand, content-partner concentration, privacy rules, and competition can all move the outcome. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical facts are well documented. Forecast confidence is lower because merger conditions and market behavior are outside a static model. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low because the proposed acquisition and its approval path make the current setup more event-driven than a normal standalone valuation decision. | Medium-low |
ROKU AI stock forecast
ROKU AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The ROKU AI stock forecast is a scenario framework based on the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, not a price promise. A three-year standalone model using $1.12 TTM EPS produces values near $248 in a bullish case, $126 in a base case, and $45 in a bearish case. Those results are not transaction terms and are less useful if the Fox agreement closes or changes.
Base case
$150 to $165
More likely if the announced Fox agreement progresses through approvals and the mixed cash-and-stock consideration remains close to its announced value. The final value can vary with Fox shares and deal conditions.
Bearish case
$90 to $120
More likely if the transaction is blocked or abandoned and Roku then faces weaker advertising demand, slower platform monetization, rising content costs, or valuation compression as a standalone company.
ROKU AI technical analysis
ROKU AI Technical Analysis
ROKU AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and indicators available near that cutoff. This static page does not fetch request-time chart data. Confirm support, resistance, moving averages, momentum, volume, volatility, and the transaction status in a live chart and current filings before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $140.69 | NASDAQ closing price on July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $139 to $141 | Recent trading area near the July 10 close. It is not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $150 to $160 | A planning zone that includes the announced per-share transaction value. Deal terms, not chart resistance alone, can control the move. |
| 50-day moving average | About $128.95 | StockAnalysis listed this 50-day average near the cutoff. |
| 200-day moving average | About $107.51 | StockAnalysis listed this 200-day average near the cutoff. |
| Momentum | Event-driven | The proposed acquisition can dominate standard momentum signals, so confirm current price behavior before using an RSI-based setup. |
| Volume | 1.80 million on July 10 | Volume should be compared with the current 20-day average because transaction news can create abnormal turnover. |
| Volatility | High event sensitivity | Approval headlines, the value of stock consideration, earnings, and advertising data can create gaps beyond normal technical levels. |
| Invalidation | Break below $128.95 | A sustained close below the 50-day average, especially with adverse transaction news, would weaken the technical setup and require a new review. |
ROKU AI trading strategy
ROKU AI Trading Strategy Framework
The ROKU AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Confirm live prices and merger filings, set position size and loss limits in advance, and treat transaction developments as a separate risk from ordinary earnings analysis.
Trend-following setup
For a standalone chart setup, wait for ROKU to hold above the 50-day average near $128.95 and reclaim the $150 area with volume and no adverse transaction update.
A decisive close below the 50-day average or a negative approval development should invalidate the setup.
Event-driven setup
Separate the value of the announced cash-and-stock consideration from a standalone business view. Review proxy materials, regulatory filings, closing conditions, and the market value of Fox shares.
Do not assume the announced value is guaranteed. Use a maximum position size that can withstand a delayed, amended, or failed transaction.
Fundamental monitor
Track platform revenue, advertising revenue, streaming hours, household reach, gross profit, free cash flow, content-partner relationships, share repurchases, and any transaction disclosures.
Reduce confidence if advertising or platform monetization weakens, deal conditions worsen, or price gains are not supported by current filings.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Roku supplies the operating system, distribution, advertising tools, subscriptions, and content entry points that connect viewers, TV manufacturers, advertisers, and streaming partners. Customers and partners pay for access, discovery, distribution, and monetization.
Moat
The moat rests on household reach, a familiar user interface, Roku TV licensing, advertiser tools, first-party viewing data, and relationships with content partners. It is constrained by powerful alternatives from Amazon, Google, Apple, Samsung, LG, and TV makers.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if the Fox transaction does not close, advertising demand falls, content partners change economics, privacy rules limit targeting, international monetization lags, device subsidies do not grow households, or larger ecosystems win distribution.
Management
Anthony Wood and the team have shifted attention toward platform revenue, profitability, and free cash flow per share, including repurchases. The pending transaction makes approval execution, deal disclosure, and post-close governance central near-term issues.
Industry trend
Connected TV and ad-supported streaming continue to take viewing and ad budgets from traditional television. The opportunity is real, but ad cycles, content economics, privacy rules, and platform consolidation can make the path uneven.
Valuation and margin of safety
At the verified July 10 price, ROKU traded near 125.62x TTM EPS and 38.55x free cash flow per share on a standalone basis. The market price also reflects transaction expectations, so neither ordinary multiples nor announced consideration alone provide a complete margin-of-safety answer.
Source-backed data
ROKU Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROKU price and shares outstanding | $140.69 closing price on July 10, 2026 and 147.69 million shares outstanding | Yahoo Finance historical data and StockAnalysis market overview | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $20.78 billion, verified as $140.69 x 147.69 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.737 billion revenue and $88.4 million net income | Roku 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.249 billion revenue, $1.131 billion platform revenue, more than 100 million streaming households, 38.7 billion streaming hours, and $148 million free cash flow | Roku Q1 2026 shareholder letter and Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $2.380 billion at March 31, 2026, cross-checked against StockAnalysis | Roku Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| Standalone valuation and free cash flow | $1.12 TTM EPS, $3.65 free cash flow per share, 125.62x PE, and 38.55x P/FCF | Roku filings, StockAnalysis statistics, and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day average about $128.95 and 200-day average about $107.51 | StockAnalysis statistics table | July 11, 2026 |
| Proposed Fox transaction | Fox announced an agreement to acquire Roku for $96 in cash and 0.9693 Fox Class A shares per Roku share, subject to approvals and closing conditions | Fox and Roku transaction announcement | July 11, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and can be wrong. Confirm live prices, current filings, transaction terms, and personal risk tolerance before making any investment decision.
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