Netflix, Inc. research snapshot
NFLX AI stock analysis reads Netflix as a high-quality global entertainment platform whose second-quarter 2026 report, released July 16, 2026, was in line with guidance but did not stop a slide to a two-year low. Q2 revenue rose 13.4% to $12.56 billion, operating margin was 33.4%, diluted EPS was $0.80, and free cash flow was $1.5 billion. The stock closed at $71.71 on July 31, 2026, roughly 44% below its 52-week high, after the market reset expectations for a second straight quarter of slower sales growth. The page uses scenario ranges, explicit invalidation levels, and a rules-based framework instead of a single price prediction. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$71.71
Market cap
$298.60 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-quality streaming leader trading near a two-year low
Trend status
Fundamentals solid, but the technical trend is bearish below every major moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Netflix remains the global streaming leader with double-digit revenue growth in every region, Q2 2026 revenue of $12.56 billion up 13.4%, a 33.4% operating margin, and an expanding ads business on track to roughly double to about $3 billion in 2026. | High |
| Moat | Brand, scale, recommendation data, content spend, global distribution, live-event rights, and cultural relevance create a wide moat, but entertainment taste remains contestable and competition for attention is intense. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters kept the 2026 outlook intact, and capital allocation shifted toward large buybacks with a $25 billion authorization and a record $4.7 billion repurchase in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 16% to $45.18 billion, Q2 2026 revenue rose 13.4% to $12.56 billion, operating margin expanded to 33.4%, and 2026 revenue guidance was narrowed to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion at a 31.5% operating margin. | High |
| Valuation | At about 22.6x TTM EPS, 20.7x forward EPS, and 26.8x TTM free cash flow per share with a PEG near 1.0, NFLX is priced far below the 2025 peak but not as a distressed asset. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NFLX trades near $71.71, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with neutral RSI near 44.6 and 52-week support near $65.08. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are content return volatility, ad-growth execution, consumer price sensitivity, competition from YouTube, Disney, Amazon, and TikTok, live-event cost discipline, and a second straight quarter of slowing revenue growth. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis is well supported by SEC filings, the July 16, 2026 shareholder letter, and current technical data, while return forecasts remain scenario estimates. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business certainty is stronger than entry-price certainty. The stock needs either technical stabilization above its moving averages or a further valuation cushion before the setup becomes compelling. | Medium |
NFLX AI stock forecast
The NFLX AI stock forecast should be read as scenario analysis, not a single price prediction. Using a July 31, 2026 close near $71.71 and a forward EPS base near $3.46, financial_rigor.py produced a three-year bearish value near $64, a base case near $107, and a bullish value near $159 before any effect from future repurchases.
$150 to $165
More likely if 2026 revenue reaches the high end of the $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion guide, ads revenue approaches $3 billion, operating margin keeps expanding toward the 31.5% target, and the market restores a mid-20s earnings multiple as growth stabilizes.
$100 to $115
More likely if Netflix compounds EPS at a high single digit to low double digit rate, keeps free cash flow near the roughly $12.5 billion target, and trades around a low-20s earnings multiple once technical damage repairs.
$55 to $70
More likely if revenue growth slows further, pricing power fades, content amortization pressures margin, ads scale more slowly than planned, or investors assign a high-teens earnings multiple to a mature, lower-growth business.
NFLX AI technical analysis
NFLX AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $71.71 on July 31, below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 44.6 and a 52-week range of $65.08 to $126.71. That combination argues for rules-based confirmation of a bottom instead of assuming the decline is over.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.71 | StockAnalysis.com real-time close for July 31, 2026, down 2.00% on the day and roughly 44% below the 52-week high. |
| Near support | $70.00 to $71.10 | The July 31 daily low was near $71.11, with round-number support at $70. A loss of this zone would test the 52-week low. |
| Key support | $65.08 | The 52-week low on StockAnalysis.com. A decisive close below this level would confirm a new low and reset the setup. |
| Near resistance | $72.26 to $72.30 | The 5-day and 20-day moving averages cluster near $72.26 to $72.30, the first overhead test for any bounce. |
| Major resistance | $77.11 to $91.30 | The 50-day moving average near $77.11 and the 200-day near $91.30 are the main overhead levels in a downtrend. |
| 50-day SMA | $77.11 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both showed the 50-day simple moving average near $77.11 around the cutoff, well above price. |
| 200-day SMA | $91.30 | Price remains far below the 200-day moving average near $91.30, keeping the longer technical trend firmly cautious. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.6 | Neutral to soft momentum. Barchart 14-day relative strength near 44.6 and 50-day RSI near 41.6 show no overbought condition and no confirmed oversold reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 49 million shares | Barchart showed the 20-day average volume near 49 million shares, with the July 31 session at about 35.9 million, below that average. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $2.58 | Barchart reported 14-day average true range near $2.58 or about 3.6%, with 14-day historical volatility near 38%, so position sizing should account for wide daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $65.08 | A decisive close below the 52-week low near $65.08 would invalidate the base-building setup and shift focus to lower support discovery. A reclaim of the 50-day average near $77.11 would be the first trend-improvement signal. |
NFLX AI trading strategy
The NFLX AI trading strategy below is a research and risk framework, not personal financial advice. It combines business quality, scenario valuation, technical confirmation, and explicit invalidation levels in a downtrend.
Watch for NFLX to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $77.11 and then hold above the 200-day average near $91.30 with improving volume. Until then, the primary trend remains down.
Define risk before entry. A failed reclaim of the 50-day average or a close back below the initial resistance zone can be used as a rules-based invalidation signal.
If NFLX retests the $70.00 to $71.10 support zone or the $65.08 52-week low without a fundamental downgrade, compare the setup against Q3 revenue guidance, operating margin, ad revenue, and free cash flow updates before acting.
Avoid averaging down without a stop. A close below $65.08 changes the setup from base building to possible trend failure.
Track 2026 revenue progress toward the $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion guide, ads revenue toward roughly $3 billion, content amortization growth near 10%, free cash flow near $12.5 billion, share repurchases, and competitive engagement data.
Do not let the strength of the Netflix brand replace sizing discipline. Scenario ranges can change quickly after earnings, guidance, price changes, or content performance shifts.
Investment research summary
Netflix sells recurring global entertainment access. Customers pay because the service offers a large library, original programming, discovery, device availability, live events, games, and frequent habit-forming viewing moments.
The moat comes from brand habit, content scale, recommendation systems, first-party viewing data, global distribution, and a large content budget. It is wide, but not unbreakable because entertainment alternatives are abundant.
The thesis fails if content spend stops producing hit density, ads do not scale profitably, price increases raise churn, live events become expensive without retention payoff, or attention shifts faster to YouTube, TikTok, gaming, and local streamers.
The co-CEO model splits content and product strength between Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, with CFO Spencer Neumann on finance. Capital allocation prioritizes reinvestment, selective M&A, liquidity, and buybacks, including a record $4.7 billion repurchase in Q2 2026.
Streaming continues to take share from linear TV, and Netflix also has room in ads, gaming, live events, and video podcasts. The same shift attracts well-funded competitors and raises the cost of winning attention.
At roughly 22.6x TTM EPS, 20.7x forward EPS, and 26.8x TTM free cash flow per share with a PEG near 1.0, the price is far below the 2025 peak and no longer assumes peak optimism. Margin of safety depends on whether ads revenue and margin expansion offset competitive and content risks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX price | $71.71 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $298.60 billion, verified as $71.71 x 4.16 billion shares with 0.10% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $12.56 billion, up 13.4% year over year and up 12% on a FX-neutral basis | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating income and margin | $4.193 billion operating income, 33.4% operating margin, versus 34.1% in Q2 2025 | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | $3.401 billion net income, $0.80 diluted EPS, versus $0.72 in Q2 2025 | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 free cash flow | $1.525 billion, versus $2.267 billion in Q2 2025 | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 regional revenue | UCAN $5.432 billion up 10%, EMEA $4.034 billion up 14%, LATAM $1.584 billion up 21%, APAC $1.510 billion up 16% | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| 2026 company guidance | Revenue narrowed to $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion, operating margin 31.5%, ads revenue roughly doubling to about $3 billion, and free cash flow of about $12.5 billion | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $9.1 billion cash and equivalents, $14.4 billion gross debt, about $5.2 billion net debt as of June 30, 2026 | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | $4.7 billion repurchased in Q2 2026, the largest quarter on record, with about $27.1 billion of remaining authorization capacity | Netflix Q2 2026 shareholder letter | July 16, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $45.18 billion revenue up 15.85%, $10.98 billion net income up 26.05% | Netflix 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation checks | 22.59x TTM EPS, 20.70x forward PE, 6.17x price to sales, 26.78x price to FCF, PEG 1.04 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy from 51 analysts with a 12-month average target near $94.33, a low of $70, and a high of $135 | StockAnalysis.com analyst summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 5-day SMA $72.26, 20-day SMA $72.30, 50-day SMA $77.11, 100-day SMA $85.60, 200-day SMA $91.30, RSI 14 near 44.6 | Barchart NFLX technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Stock split | 10-for-1 forward stock split effective November 17, 2025 | StockAnalysis.com stock split history | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold NFLX. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available data and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, and your own risk constraints before making decisions.
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