The Walt Disney Company research snapshot
DIS AI stock analysis currently reads The Walt Disney Company as a data-rich media, streaming, sports, and experiences business with valuable intellectual property, improving direct-to-consumer profitability, and a hard transition away from linear television compounded by new regulatory pressure. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, DIS traded near $96.19 with a verified market capitalization near $167.04 billion and a 52-week range of $92.19 to $119.91. The DIS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a fixed price prediction because streaming margins, ESPN sports rights, the NFL Network integration, theme park demand, film slate performance, capital spending, the ABC-FCC license dispute, and the market multiple can shift quickly.
Current price
$96.19 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$167.04 billion verified market cap
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality entertainment franchise with improving streaming economics, durable parks, and rising regulatory, sports-cost, and linear-TV transition risk
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with neutral RSI near 46 and weak moving-average trend signals
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Disney sells filmed entertainment, Disney+, Hulu, ESPN, TV networks, licensing, theme parks, cruises, resorts, games, and consumer products. The asset base is strong, but several profit pools are in transition and the company now carries an active FCC license dispute. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, ESPN, park destinations, global family trust, merchandising, and cross-platform storytelling. The moat is weaker in undifferentiated streaming distribution and linear TV. | Medium-high |
| Management | Josh D'Amaro became CEO on March 18, 2026 after leading Disney Experiences, with Dana Walden as President and Chief Creative Officer. His test is to connect creativity, streaming, ESPN, and parks while controlling costs after three rounds of 2026 layoffs. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $94.4 billion and net income attributable to Disney rose to $12.404 billion. Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 7% to $25.2 billion with adjusted EPS of $1.57, while first-half FY2026 net income attributable to Disney was $4.649 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $96.19, DIS screens near 15.37x TTM EPS, 1.54x book value, 23.49x TTM free cash flow per share, and a 1.56% dividend yield using financial-rigor tool math. | High |
| Technical trend | DIS is below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with neutral RSI near 46, so the setup is not yet a confirmed uptrend and the stock trades near the lower part of its 52-week range. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include the ABC-FCC license dispute, cord-cutting, ESPN sports rights inflation and NFL Network integration costs, weaker park attendance, consumer price sensitivity, content misses, streaming churn, succession risk, and capital intensity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and third-party data agree on core historical numbers. Return confidence is lower because Disney is a multi-segment turnaround and execution story facing new regulatory headlines. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Disney has a stronger long-term franchise than the current technical trend suggests, but a higher certainty case needs proof that streaming, ESPN, and Experiences can compound earnings together while the FCC license process resolves without lasting damage. | Medium |
DIS AI stock forecast
The DIS AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings depend on streaming profitability, ESPN direct-to-consumer adoption, NFL Network integration, park demand, cruise expansion, film slate returns, cost discipline, the ABC-FCC process, and the valuation multiple. Using a $96.19 price reference, TTM EPS near $6.26, and a three-year model checked with the financial rigor tool, the mechanical outcomes are about $168 in a bullish case, $122 in a base case, and $68 in a bearish case before dividends.
$155 to $180 before dividends
More likely if Disney sustains double-digit adjusted EPS growth, streaming margins expand, ESPN direct-to-consumer and the NFL Network integration exceed expectations, Experiences keeps pricing power, films improve, the ABC-FCC dispute settles, and investors value Disney closer to a premium branded content compounder.
$112 to $130 before dividends
More likely if FY2026 and FY2027 earnings grow at a mid-to-high single-digit pace, streaming profit offsets linear decline, parks remain resilient, buybacks continue at an $8 billion annual target, and the market assigns a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$62 to $74 before dividends
More likely if the ABC-FCC process escalates into long hearings, cord-cutting accelerates, ESPN rights and NFL integration costs pressure margins, park attendance softens, major releases miss expectations, streaming churn rises, or investors price Disney as a low-growth media conglomerate.
DIS AI technical analysis
DIS AI technical analysis is weak-to-neutral as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a July 31 close near $96.19 and market cap near $167.04 billion. Barchart listed the stock below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 50-day average near $99.15 and the 200-day average near $104.69, and the 100-day average near $100.14. StockAnalysis showed RSI near 46.35, which is neutral rather than oversold, and a 20-day average volume near 10.35 million shares.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $96.19 close | StockAnalysis showed DIS at $96.19 at the July 31, 2026 close. |
| Immediate support | $94 to $96 | This area brackets the recent trading floor and the nearby pivot reference, and it should matter if sellers press below the current range. |
| Lower support | $92 to $93 | StockAnalysis listed a 52-week low near $92.19, making this a key downside reference rather than a forecast. |
| Near resistance | $99 to $101 | This range covers the 50-day moving average near $99.15 and the 100-day moving average near $100.14 from Barchart. |
| Major resistance | $104 to $106 | The 200-day moving average sits near this area, so a reclaim would meaningfully improve trend quality. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $99.15, 200-day near $104.69 | Barchart data shows price below the 50-day and 200-day averages, confirming a weak trend until buyers reclaim them. |
| Momentum | RSI near 46 | StockAnalysis showed RSI around 46.35, so the issue is trend weakness rather than a deeply oversold momentum washout. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 10.35 million shares | Volume around earnings on August 5, 2026, ESPN updates, streaming subscriber trends, and park demand commentary should be monitored for confirmation. |
| Invalidation | Close below $92, then failure to reclaim $101 | A sustained break below the 52-week low area would weaken the setup. A failure to reclaim the 50-day and 100-day averages keeps trend confidence limited. |
DIS AI trading strategy
The DIS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with streaming margins, ESPN rights costs and NFL integration, park attendance, film slate returns, the ABC-FCC process, dividend policy, buybacks, and valuation discipline.
Watch for DIS to reclaim $99 to $101 and then $105 with improving volume, stable FY2026 EPS guidance, and no negative update on streaming churn, ESPN costs, park demand, or the ABC-FCC process.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $94 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings commentary points to weaker Experiences demand, higher sports programming costs, or an escalated FCC review.
If DIS tests $92 to $95 without a permanent earnings reset, compare the lower price with streaming operating income, park bookings, ESPN subscriber conversion and NFL integration, film slate performance, free cash flow, and the status of the ABC-FCC dispute.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if streaming margins reverse, ESPN direct-to-consumer adoption disappoints, parks lose pricing power, or the FCC process creates headline-driven volatility.
Track Disney+ and Hulu operating income, ESPN direct-to-consumer and NFL Network metrics, Experiences revenue, domestic park attendance, cruise capacity, theatrical box office, free cash flow, buybacks, dividend coverage, ABC-FCC proceedings, and management guidance.
Position sizing should reflect that Disney combines rare brand assets with secular TV decline, a live regulatory dispute, cyclical consumer exposure, and high capital spending.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Disney for trusted stories, characters, sports, parks, cruises, resorts, streaming access, theatrical entertainment, and merchandise. The business converts intellectual property into repeated consumer touchpoints across screens, travel, licensing, and experiences.
Disney has brand trust, character libraries, franchise depth, ESPN sports rights, destination parks, cruise assets, consumer products, and cross-segment distribution. The moat is strongest where IP, place, and habit reinforce each other, and weakest where streaming distribution is easy to compare.
The thesis fails if the ABC-FCC license dispute escalates into long or costly proceedings, linear TV cash flow erodes faster than streaming profit scales, ESPN economics deteriorate, parks lose pricing power, film franchises fatigue, capital projects overrun, or the new CEO cannot align creative and financial discipline.
Josh D'Amaro brings deep Experiences leadership and a clear technology-plus-storytelling mandate, supported by Dana Walden as President and Chief Creative Officer. The capital allocation test is whether management can fund parks, streaming tech, ESPN, content, dividends, and buybacks while controlling costs after three rounds of 2026 layoffs.
The long-term trend favors direct-to-consumer distribution, global franchises, live sports, immersive parks, cruise expansion, and interactive entertainment. The offset is that linear TV decline, fragmented attention, YouTube and TikTok competition, sports rights inflation, and new regulatory scrutiny pressure legacy economics.
At $96.19, Disney does not require a heroic multiple, but it does require earnings durability. Margin of safety depends on whether streaming and Experiences growth can offset legacy network decline and the ABC-FCC process while free cash flow funds investment and shareholder returns.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $96.19 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis DIS quote and overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $167.04 billion, verified from $96.19 price and 1.74 billion shares | StockAnalysis DIS market cap and statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 15.37, forward PE 13.01, PS 1.72, PB 1.54, P/FCF 23.49, EV/EBITDA 11.25 | StockAnalysis DIS statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Q2 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EPS | $25.2 billion revenue and $1.57 adjusted EPS | Disney SEC Exhibit 99.1 Q2 FY2026 results | May 6, 2026 |
| First half FY2026 revenue and net income | $51.1 billion revenue and $4.649 billion net income attributable to Disney | Disney Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q | May 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $94.4 billion revenue and $12.404 billion net income attributable to Disney | Disney FY2025 earnings release and 10-K | November 2025 |
| FY2025 and FY2026 outlook free cash flow | FY2025 free cash flow of $10.077 billion; FY2026 guidance targets at least $8 billion in share repurchases | Macrotrends DIS free cash flow and Disney Q2 FY2026 release | July 31, 2026 |
| Cash and net debt | $5.68 billion cash and cash equivalents; StockAnalysis shows net debt near $41.68 billion | StockAnalysis DIS balance sheet statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| CEO | Josh D'Amaro, Chief Executive Officer, effective March 18, 2026, with Dana Walden as President and Chief Creative Officer | The Walt Disney Company press release | February 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and volume | 50-day moving average near $99.15, 200-day near $104.69, 100-day near $100.14, 20-day average volume near 10.35 million shares | StockAnalysis DIS statistics and Barchart technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 31 analysts with an average 12-month price target near $126.74; recent targets include Jefferies $125, Morgan Stanley $123, and Citi $135 | StockAnalysis DIS analyst forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Regulatory risk | FCC placed eight ABC-owned local stations on an expedited license renewal review; ABC argues the process is retaliation over editorial coverage | The Guardian ABC-FCC reporting | July 30, 2026 |
This DIS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical references, and explicit assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong.
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