The Trade Desk, Inc. research snapshot
TTD AI stock analysis as of August 2, 2026 reads The Trade Desk as a founder-led independent demand-side advertising platform that has kept customer retention above 95%, generated $842 million of trailing free cash flow, and now trades at a deeply compressed valuation after a roughly 79% drawdown from its 52-week high. The market is debating whether AI tools and agency cost pressure will permanently reduce demand for independent ad-tech, and short interest sits near 15.66% of shares outstanding. Q1 2026 revenue grew 12% to $688.9 million, slower than the 25% growth a year earlier, while guidance points to at least $750 million of Q2 revenue. At the July 31, 2026 close of $18.04 and 470.11 million shares outstanding, the market value is about $8.48 billion, which compares with a trailing PE near 20x and a price-to-free-cash-flow near 10x. This TTD AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$18.04 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$8.48 billion market value
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
High-quality cash generator at a deeply compressed valuation, facing an AI disruption debate and a broken technical trend
Trend status
Downtrend, price below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, down about 79% over 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | The Trade Desk sells a self-service demand-side platform for buying, measuring, and optimizing digital ads across CTV, video, display, audio, mobile, and the open internet. Customer retention stayed above 95% in Q1 2026. | High |
| Moat | Agency relationships, data integrations, bidding infrastructure, UID2 identity work, Kokai and Koa AI tools, CTV inventory, and workflow switching costs support the moat, but Google, Amazon, Meta, retail media networks, and AI commoditization pressure it. | Medium |
| Management | Jeff Green remains founder chairman and CEO with 49.7% of total voting power in the 2026 proxy. The team added commercial leaders and board members, but CFO turnover since 2025 (Schenkein, then Kayyal, then interim Davis) is a governance flag. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 18% to $2.896 billion and free cash flow reached $796 million. Q1 2026 revenue growth slowed to 12% with $206 million of adjusted EBITDA, and Q2 guidance implies roughly 8% year-over-year growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $18.04, TTD trades near 20x trailing EPS, 2.9x sales, 10.1x free cash flow, and a 9.9% free cash flow yield, a large discount to its own multi-year average. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, the stock is down about 79% over 52 weeks, and RSI near 45 shows a weak, not oversold, repair setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include AI disruption of ad buying, agency budget shifts, walled gardens, retail media fragmentation, privacy rules, UID2 adoption limits, ad-budget cyclicality, 15.66% short interest, CFO turnover, and founder voting control. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because the company is mature and well covered. Predictive confidence is medium because ad-tech multiples and the AI disruption debate can reset quickly. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | TTD is a cash generator priced like a value stock, but certainty is capped by the broken trend, heavy short interest, and open questions about structural demand for independent ad-tech. | Medium |
TTD AI stock forecast
The TTD AI stock forecast uses the $18.04 July 31, 2026 close, trailing EPS near $0.89, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py model produced a bearish area near $10.70, a base area near $20.20, and a bullish area near $33.80 before future buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes outside the stated assumptions. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$30 to $36
More likely if revenue reaccelerates above the Q1 2026 12% pace, agencies keep spend on independent buying tools, Kokai and Koa AI tools improve advertiser performance, UID2 adoption broadens, free cash flow margin stays high, and the market reprices TTD closer to 25x forward earnings.
$18 to $22
More likely if revenue grows in the high single digits to low double digits, customer retention stays above 95%, free cash flow margin holds near 28%, and TTD trades near an 18x earnings multiple while AI disruption concerns keep sentiment cautious.
$9 to $13
More likely if agencies reduce spend on TTD as Arete Research argues, AI tools and closed platforms keep more ad budget inside walled gardens, UID2 adoption disappoints, pricing pressure rises, or the stock re-rates toward 12x earnings.
TTD AI technical analysis
TTD AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed the stock closing at $18.04 on July 31, 2026 with the 5-day moving average near $18.44, the 20-day near $18.67, the 50-day near $19.34, the 100-day near $21.16, and the 200-day near $29.28. RSI was near 45 and ADX near 8, reflecting a weak trend after a 79% drawdown.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $18.04 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis and Barchart. |
| Immediate support | $16.70 to $17.71 | The 52-week low and the recent day-low area sit in this range, so a hold here is the first line of defense. |
| First resistance | $18.44 to $18.67 | The 5-day and 20-day moving averages cluster near this zone, so a close above it would start a short-term repair. |
| Key resistance | $19.34 | The 50-day moving average marks the next level that must be reclaimed for the repair to extend. |
| Major resistance | $21.16 | The 100-day moving average is a meaningful overhead level that stopped recovery attempts in recent months. |
| Trend resistance | $29.28 | The 200-day moving average remains far above spot, showing the long-term trend has not repaired. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $18.44, 20-day $18.67, 50-day $19.34, 100-day $21.16, 200-day $29.28 | Price below every average confirms the downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45, ADX near 8 | Momentum is weak but not oversold, so a bounce is not yet a confirmed reversal. |
| Volume | Average volume near 13.5 million | Short interest is 15.66% of shares outstanding, so rebounds can be violent and need above-average volume to confirm. |
| Volatility | High, historic volatility near 50% | A 14-day historic volatility reading near 50% plus a $0.96 average true range means position sizing must be conservative. |
| Invalidation | Close below $16.70, then below $16.00 | A break below the 52-week low would extend the downtrend, while a recovery above $19.34 then $21.16 would rebuild the repair case. |
TTD AI trading strategy
The TTD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with revenue growth, customer retention, CTV adoption, UID2 momentum, Kokai and Koa product impact, free cash flow, CFO stability, and short interest.
Watch for TTD to reclaim $19.34 and then $21.16 on above-average volume while the next earnings update (August 6, 2026) confirms revenue growth near or above guidance of at least $750 million and retention above 95%.
A failed reclaim of the 50-day average followed by a close below $16.70 should reduce confidence, especially if guidance or agency commentary points to weaker spend.
If TTD pulls back toward $16.70 to $17.71 without a cut to free cash flow, compare the new price with the audited 20x trailing EPS, 10.1x free cash flow, 2.9x sales, and the 9.9% free cash flow yield.
Do not treat a low multiple as sufficient if agencies reduce spend on TTD, AI tools keep more budget in closed platforms, UID2 adoption stalls, or short interest keeps rising.
Track quarterly revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margin, free cash flow, customer retention, gross spend, CTV share, UID2 and EUID adoption, Kokai and Koa AI monetization, retail media partnerships, CFO stability, and short interest.
Position sizing should reflect that TTD is a cash-generative ad-tech company exposed to AI disruption, cyclical budgets, regulation, and platform power, not a guaranteed AI winner.
Investment research summary
Advertisers and agencies pay The Trade Desk to buy and optimize measurable digital advertising across the open internet, with independent decisioning, cross-channel reach, and performance data as the core value.
Agency workflows, data and publisher integrations, CTV scale, UID2 identity work, Kokai and Koa AI tooling, and switching costs form the moat. It can narrow if AI tools, walled gardens, or retail media networks bundle buying more effectively.
The thesis fails if open internet ad spend loses share, AI tools make independent bidding less valuable, agencies cut spend on TTD, UID2 stays niche, ad budgets weaken, take rates compress, CFO turnover signals deeper problems, or founder voting control leads to unchecked capital decisions.
Jeff Green gives founder-led strategy and deep ad-tech domain knowledge, but the 2026 proxy shows 49.7% voting power and there has been CFO turnover since 2025. The company added commercial and board talent in mid-2026.
Advertising is moving toward connected TV, retail media, identity-aware targeting, and AI-assisted campaign optimization. TTD is tied to that trend, but the market is now pricing in the risk that AI tools and closed platforms capture more of the economics.
At $18.04, TTD trades at a large discount to its own history. The scenario model leaves base-case upside near 18x to 20x earnings if EPS compounds, but margin of safety depends on revenue reacceleration and proof that AI disruption is not cutting structural demand.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price reference | $18.04 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis TTD quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market cap reference | $8.48 billion quoted, confirmed by financial_rigor.py at 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis, Macrotrends, and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 470.11 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis TTD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $688.857 million revenue, $39.997 million net income, $0.08 diluted EPS | The Trade Desk Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $206 million adjusted EBITDA, about 30% margin | The Trade Desk Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | At least $750 million revenue and about $260 million adjusted EBITDA | The Trade Desk Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $878.377 million cash plus $527.538 million short-term investments at March 31, 2026 | The Trade Desk Q1 2026 press release | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $2.896 billion revenue and $443.3 million net income | The Trade Desk 2025 Form 10-K | February 27, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and free cash flow | $2.969 billion TTM revenue and $842.45 million TTM free cash flow | StockAnalysis TTD financials and cash flow | August 2, 2026 |
| Debt reference | No borrowings under the amended credit facility at March 31, 2026, with about $423.58 million of operating lease liabilities | The Trade Desk Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | May 7, 2026 |
| Short interest | 73.63 million shares sold short, about 15.66% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis TTD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Founder voting control | Jeff Green beneficially owned shares representing 49.7% of total voting power | The Trade Desk 2026 proxy statement | April 9, 2026 |
| Analyst sentiment | Consensus Hold with a $24.32 average price target; Arete Research rates TTD Sell with an $11.60 target | StockAnalysis TTD overview and analyst news | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 5-day MA $18.44, 20-day MA $18.67, 50-day MA $19.34, 100-day MA $21.16, 200-day MA $29.28, RSI near 45 | Barchart TTD technical analysis | July 31, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial planning, a recommendation to buy or sell TTD, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, AI adoption, advertising budgets, regulation, or investor sentiment change.
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