ResMed Inc. research snapshot
RMD AI stock analysis reads ResMed Inc. as a high-quality sleep and respiratory care business with strong margins, net cash, and a portfolio that just got cleaner after the MatrixCare divestiture. At the July 31, 2026 data cutoff, RMD closed near $210.98 with StockAnalysis reporting a $30.43 billion market cap and 144.24 million shares outstanding. The bull case rests on TTM revenue of $5.54 billion, TTM net income of $1.52 billion, Q3 FY2026 revenue growth of 11%, GAAP gross margin of 62.2%, and a net cash balance sheet near $817 million. The caution is that the stock is down roughly 24% over 52 weeks, still trades below the 200-day moving average near $232, and saw a wave of analyst downgrades and price-target cuts in July 2026 tied to GLP-1 demand, FY27 growth, and the MatrixCare exit.
Current price
$210.98
Market cap
$30.43 billion reported market cap, $30.43 billion calculated from price and shares; MarketBeat lists $30.66 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality sleep and respiratory care compounder with a sharper portfolio after the MatrixCare sale, net cash, and a below-trend chart that needs FY27 execution and Q4 FY2026 results
Trend status
Recovering from the July 23 low near $190 but still below the 200-day moving average, with price above the 50-day moving average and RSI near neutral
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ResMed sells flow generators, masks, accessories, ventilation products, cloud-connected care platforms, and residential care software into chronic sleep and respiratory markets. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, clinical workflows, device ecosystem scale, mask fit know-how, software connectivity, distribution relationships, regulatory know-how, and patient switching friction. | High |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Michael Mick Farrell has led the company since 2013, and Aaron Bloomer is stepping into the CFO role as Brett Sandercock retires. Capital allocation shows buybacks, the Noctrix acquisition, and the MatrixCare sale. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is $5.54 billion, up 10.3%, Q3 FY2026 revenue rose 11% to $1.43 billion with GAAP gross margin at 62.2%, and operating cash flow for the quarter was $554 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $210.98, verified math shows 20.34x TTM EPS, 4.71x book value, 17.35x free cash flow, 5.50x sales, and a 1.14% dividend yield, cheaper than the July snapshot. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the 50-day moving average near $199.22 but below the 200-day moving average near $232.01, with RSI near 57.94, so the trend is a recovery inside a longer repair phase. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high. GLP-1 adoption, payer pressure, competitive devices, elevated short interest near 9.4% of shares, MatrixCare execution, and valuation sensitivity remain material. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official and third-party data broadly agree. Forecast confidence is medium because demand and multiple assumptions drive most of the future return range. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium at this price. RMD is a strong business, but the margin of safety depends on FY27 growth holding, proof that GLP-1 therapies expand diagnosis more than they reduce device usage, and the stock regaining the 200-day moving average. | Medium |
RMD AI stock forecast
The RMD AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction. Using the July 31, 2026 research cutoff, a $210.98 stock price, $10.37 TTM EPS, and a three-year model with analyst-implied EPS growth near 11.5%, the tested valuation anchors were about $359 in a bull case, $252 in a base case, and $147 in a bear case before dividends.
$340 to $370
More likely if device and mask growth stays near double digits, Q4 FY2026 confirms operating leverage, gross margin holds above 60%, GLP-1 patients increase sleep screening, the MatrixCare sale closes on time, and investors keep valuing RMD near a premium medtech multiple.
$240 to $265
More likely if EPS compounds near 8% to 9%, cash conversion stays strong, the 200-day moving average near $232 flips from resistance to support, and the market values RMD near 19x to 20x normalized earnings.
$135 to $155
More likely if GLP-1 adoption reduces CPAP starts, mask resupply slows, payer pressure rises, FY27 growth decelerates sharply, or the market rerates RMD toward a lower medtech multiple.
RMD AI technical analysis
RMD AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed the latest close at $210.98, a 50-day moving average near $199.22, a 200-day moving average near $232.01, RSI near 57.94, beta near 0.78, and 20-day average volume near 1.37 million shares. Barchart placed support near $206.88, $202.77, and $200.32 and resistance near $213.43, $215.88, and $219.98. The stock is rebounding from the $180.26 52-week low but remains well below the $293.81 52-week high and the 200-day moving average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $210.98 | StockAnalysis listed RMD at $210.98 at the July 31, 2026 close, MarketBeat showed $211.39, and this page uses $210.98 for valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $206 to $207 | Barchart placed first support near $206.88, the first area to watch if the July rebound loses momentum. |
| Moving-average support | $199 to $200 | StockAnalysis lists the 50-day moving average near $199.22, and Barchart shows third support near $200.32, both below current price. |
| Deeper support | $180 to $188 | The 52-week low was near $180.26, creating a lower support zone that matters if the recovery fails. |
| Near resistance | $213 to $220 | Barchart places resistance near $213.43, $215.88, and $219.98, and MarketBeat shows a 50-day range top near $219.62. |
| Major resistance | $232 to $237 | The 200-day moving average near $232.01 is the key trend-repair level that must flip to support for a durable uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58 | RSI near 57.94 is neutral, so a breakout should be confirmed with volume and price follow-through rather than momentum alone. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.37 million shares | Breakouts above $220 or $232 should be judged against average volume and the August 6, 2026 earnings event. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.78, options IV near 44% | RMD has lower market beta than many growth stocks, but earnings, GLP-1 headlines, and medtech sentiment can still move the stock sharply around August 6. |
| Invalidation | Close below $199, then below $180 | A close below the 50-day average would weaken the recovery setup. A break below the 52-week low would put the bear case back in focus. |
RMD AI trading strategy
The RMD AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It connects price action with the August 6, 2026 Q4 FY2026 earnings release, device and mask growth, gross margin, MatrixCare divestiture progress, GLP-1 commentary, cash flow, and moving-average discipline.
Watch for RMD to hold above the $199 to $200 50-day moving-average band, then close above $220 and later above the $232 to $237 200-day moving-average resistance zone with volume near or above the 20-day average.
Treat a failed breakout followed by a close below $199 as a warning because the recovery would lose its nearest moving-average support.
If RMD pulls back toward $199 to $200 without a cut to revenue growth, gross margin, cash flow, or management commentary, compare the reset price with the base-case valuation range.
Do not average down only because RMD is a high-quality medtech company. Require evidence that GLP-1 risk, mask resupply, software growth, and the MatrixCare exit remain manageable.
Track Q4 FY2026 results on August 6, 2026, device revenue, mask and other revenue, Residential Care Software revenue, gross margin, operating cash flow, net cash, buybacks, dividends, GLP-1-related diagnosis trends, and MatrixCare sale closing updates.
Lower the rating if gross margin falls below 60%, revenue growth slows materially, net cash turns into rising leverage, price remains below the 200-day average after a weak earnings response, or the analyst downgrade trend continues.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ResMed because sleep apnea, COPD, restless legs syndrome, and out-of-hospital care need reliable devices, comfortable masks, connected monitoring, replacement supplies, and workflow software that fit clinical and home routines.
ResMed benefits from global brand trust, device and mask installed base, provider relationships, software data loops, regulatory experience, supply scale, and patient switching friction around fit and adherence.
The thesis fails if GLP-1 therapies reduce device starts more than they expand diagnosis, if mask resupply slows, if payers pressure reimbursement, if competitors take share, if the MatrixCare exit distracts management, or if valuation compresses faster than EPS grows.
Michael Mick Farrell has led ResMed since 2013, and CFO succession to Aaron Bloomer is underway as Brett Sandercock retires. Capital allocation shows a $175 million buyback in Q3 FY2026, the $340 million Noctrix acquisition, and the $490 million MatrixCare sale to sharpen focus.
ResMed sits in long-duration trends: aging populations, obesity-related sleep apnea, home-based care, digital monitoring, and respiratory disease management. GLP-1 drugs are both a demand risk and a screening catalyst, and Noctrix adds a restless legs syndrome therapy line.
At 20.34x TTM EPS and 17.35x free cash flow, RMD is cheaper than it was in July but not distressed. Margin of safety improves if FY27 growth holds near double digits and the stock regains the 200-day moving average without multiple expansion alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| RMD quote reference | $210.98 closing price on July 31, 2026, with MarketBeat showing $211.39 | StockAnalysis RMD overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $30.43 billion reported market cap, with $30.43 billion calculated from $210.98 x 144.24 million shares | StockAnalysis RMD market cap and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 144.24 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis RMD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM income statement | $5.54 billion revenue, up 10.3%, $1.52 billion net income, up 15.7%, and $10.37 EPS | StockAnalysis RMD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | $5.146 billion revenue, up 9.84%, and $1.401 billion net income, up 37.2%, with $9.51 diluted EPS | ResMed FY2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | $1,431.4 million revenue, up 11% and up 8% constant currency, GAAP EPS of $2.74, non-GAAP EPS of $2.86, GAAP gross margin of 62.2%, and $554 million operating cash flow | ResMed Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and net cash | $1.66 billion cash, $843.17 million debt, $817.34 million net cash | StockAnalysis RMD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment trend in Q3 FY2026 | Residential Care Software revenue up 4% constant currency, with U.S., Canada, and Latin America ex-RCS up 9% and Europe, Asia, and other markets ex-RCS up 7% constant currency | ResMed Q3 FY2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 20.34x TTM EPS, 4.71x book value, 17.35x FCF per share, 5.50x sales per share, 1.14% dividend yield | StockAnalysis inputs and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $199.22, 200-day near $232.01, RSI near 57.94, 20-day average volume near 1.37 million shares, beta near 0.78 | StockAnalysis RMD statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Barchart support and resistance | Support near $206.88, $202.77, and $200.32, with resistance near $213.43, $215.88, and $219.98 | Barchart RMD overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | StockAnalysis consensus of Buy with a $248.60 price target across 18 analysts; MarketBeat consensus of Hold with a $246.25 price target across 16 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast and MarketBeat | August 2, 2026 |
| MatrixCare divestiture | Agreement to sell MatrixCare to Frazier Healthcare Partners for $490 million, with closing expected in Q1 FY2027 | ResMed press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings event | Q4 FY2026 earnings scheduled for August 6, 2026 | ResMed investor relations release | August 2, 2026 |
This RMD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 31, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, market conditions, or company-specific risks change.
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