Intuitive Surgical, Inc. research snapshot
ISRG AI stock analysis currently reads Intuitive Surgical as a high-quality robotic surgery platform company with strong procedure growth, a large installed base, high recurring instruments and accessories revenue, and a debt-free balance sheet. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ISRG traded near $353.33 with a verified market capitalization of about $124.82 billion. The stock fell sharply after the Q2 2026 earnings report because management kept its 2026 da Vinci procedure growth guidance unchanged despite a revenue and EPS beat. This page uses scenario ranges, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$353.33
Market cap
$124.82 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality robotic surgery leader trading near the lower end of its 52-week range after a post-earnings derating
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 earnings derating
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Intuitive sells and leases robotic surgery systems, then earns recurring instruments, accessories, and service revenue as procedure volume grows across da Vinci, da Vinci SP, and Ion platforms. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from installed systems, surgeon training, procedure data, hospital workflow integration, clinical evidence, regulatory clearances, service infrastructure, and a large instrument ecosystem. | High |
| Management | CEO Dave Rosa has deep company tenure and engineering roots. Capital allocation remains focused on product development, manufacturing capacity, direct distribution expansion, and buybacks, with R&D growing faster than SG&A. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $10.065 billion and FY2025 net income attributable to common shareholders was about $2.856 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose about 19% to $2.892 billion with GAAP EPS of $2.29 and non-GAAP EPS of $2.80. | High |
| Valuation | At $353.33, ISRG traded near 40.52x TTM EPS, 6.88x book value, and 38.74x free cash flow per share. The multiple compressed sharply from prior levels but still assumes long-duration growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed below its 50-day moving average near $399.39 and its 200-day moving average near $481.88 after the post-earnings decline, so the chart is in a downtrend rather than an uptrend until those levels are reclaimed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are U.S. procedure growth deceleration, ACA premium subsidy expirations, GLP-1 pressure on bariatric cases, China tender and pricing dynamics, hospital capital budgets, competition from Medtronic, Johnson & Johnson, CMR Surgical and others, and tariff and supply-chain costs. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and calculations. Lower for exact return outcomes because procedure growth, guidance updates, and market multiples can move the stock quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ISRG is a rare medical technology compounder, but margin of safety depends on whether da Vinci 5, Ion, international adoption, and the Extended Use Program can keep growth compounding at a multiple that stays above the market. | Medium |
ISRG AI stock forecast
The ISRG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $353.33 quote and TTM diluted EPS of $8.72. The three-year framework produced a bearish area near $283, a base area near $465, and a bullish area near $612 before any incremental buyback effect. The range is wide because ISRG combines durable procedure growth with an earnings multiple that can compress quickly when growth expectations reset.
$590 to $635
More likely if EPS compounds near 16% annually, worldwide da Vinci procedures stay near the upper end of guidance, da Vinci 5 and SP placements keep rising, Ion procedures grow from a larger base, tariff refunds and product cost cuts lift margins, and the market values ISRG near 45x earnings.
$455 to $480
More likely if EPS compounds near 12% annually, 2026 da Vinci procedure growth lands inside guidance and near the midpoint, ACA and GLP-1 pressure fades gradually, non-GAAP gross margin stays near the guided range, and investors value ISRG around 38x earnings.
$270 to $295
More likely if U.S. procedure growth keeps decelerating, ACA coverage changes and GLP-1 usage suppress bariatric and other deferrable cases, China remains soft, tariffs hurt margins, competitive robotic platforms gain traction, and the market compresses ISRG toward 28x earnings.
ISRG AI technical analysis
ISRG AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 2, 2026 cutoff. The stock sits well below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after the Q2 2026 earnings selloff. RSI near 40 is weak but not yet oversold. Technical levels should be refreshed with live chart data before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $353.33 | July 31, 2026 close used for market cap and valuation math at the August 2 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $345 to $352 | The recent post-earnings low zone is the first support band and matches the short-term trading range. |
| Deeper support | $328 to $340 | The 52-week low near $328.57 is the next downside reference if the post-earnings base fails. |
| Near resistance | $375 to $400 | The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are the first overhead tests for any recovery attempt. |
| 50-day moving average | About $399.39 | Price is well below this intermediate trend gauge, so the short-term trend remains down. |
| 200-day moving average | About $481.88 | Price is far below this long-term trend gauge, which keeps the broader chart in downtrend mode. |
| Momentum | RSI about 40.02 | Momentum is weak but not yet oversold, so a further slide toward the 52-week low is possible. |
| Volume | About 4.05 million average daily shares over 20 days | Trading volume spiked during the post-earnings decline; a recovery attempt should be judged against this higher average. |
| Volatility | Beta about 1.46, ATR about $14.74, 14-day historical volatility about 79% | Volatility expanded sharply around the Q2 earnings report, so position risk can move quickly. |
| Invalidation | Close below $345, then $328.57 | A close below the post-earnings low would weaken the base. A break below the 52-week low near $328.57 would signal a failed setup. |
ISRG AI trading strategy
The ISRG AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a high-quality medical technology compounder that just experienced a sharp derating. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for ISRG to hold the $345 to $352 support band and then reclaim the 50-day moving average near $399 and 100-day moving average near $430 with volume confirmation and evidence that 2026 procedure growth guidance is on track or revised upward.
A close below about $345 or a failed move at the 50-day moving average should invalidate the recovery setup. A break below the 52-week low near $328.57 would signal a deeper downtrend.
If ISRG falls toward the $328 to $352 zone without a new product, regulatory, margin, or procedure-growth shock, compare the price with the three-scenario valuation range, the raised gross margin guidance, Q2 momentum, and buyback activity.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because high-multiple medtech compounders can keep derating when procedure growth expectations reset.
Track U.S. versus international da Vinci procedure growth, ACA coverage and premium dynamics, GLP-1 impact on bariatric cases, da Vinci 5 and SP placements, Ion procedure growth, instruments and accessories revenue, leasing mix, non-GAAP gross margin, tariffs, buybacks, China tender activity, and competitive launches.
Reduce confidence if EPS growth relies mainly on tax benefits, buybacks, or multiple expansion instead of procedure volume, installed-base growth, platform adoption, and operating leverage.
Investment research summary
Intuitive helps surgeons and hospitals perform minimally invasive procedures with robotic systems. Customers pay for systems, instruments, accessories, service, training, and workflow support because the platform can expand procedure capability and standardize care teams around da Vinci and Ion.
The moat is strongest where installed systems, trained surgeons, hospital workflows, service support, regulatory approvals, and clinical evidence reinforce each other. New platforms can compete, but displacing a trained surgical ecosystem is harder than selling a standalone device.
The thesis fails if U.S. procedure growth keeps decelerating, ACA coverage changes and GLP-1 drugs suppress deferrable procedures, hospitals delay capital spending, new competitors narrow performance gaps, China stays soft, tariffs or manufacturing costs pressure margins, or the stock keeps a premium multiple while growth normalizes.
Dave Rosa has long Intuitive tenure and frames the business around patient outcomes, care-team experience, cost to treat, and access. The key capital allocation test is whether heavy R&D, manufacturing expansion, distribution changes, buybacks, and the Extended Use Program produce durable per-share value as procedure growth matures.
Robotic-assisted minimally invasive surgery sits inside a long health-care automation trend. Aging populations, surgeon shortages, data-driven training, and hospital demand for repeatable procedures support adoption, but reimbursement, coverage changes, and hospital budgets can slow the pace, as the Q2 2026 U.S. deceleration shows.
ISRG is priced like a category leader even after the derating, at roughly 40.5x trailing earnings. The margin of safety is not balance-sheet survival because net cash is strong. It depends on whether recurring instruments and accessories revenue, da Vinci 5, Ion, and international adoption can justify a multiple well above the market.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISRG price | $353.33 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $124.82 billion, verified as $353.33 x 353.28 million shares with 0.00% variance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 353.28 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $10.065 billion, up 20.51% year over year, consistent with Intuitive FY2025 results | StockAnalysis financials and Intuitive FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income attributable to common shareholders | $2.856 billion, up 22.97% from the prior year | StockAnalysis financials and Intuitive FY2025 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $2.892 billion, up about 19% year over year | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings report and call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings per share | GAAP EPS $2.29 and non-GAAP EPS $2.80, up from $1.81 and $2.19 in Q2 2025 | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings report and call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and investments | $8.6 billion at June 30, 2026, up from $8.0 billion last quarter | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 installed base | About 13,000 da Vinci and Ion systems worldwide, with da Vinci installed base up 12% and Ion installed base up 21% year over year | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Procedure growth | Q2 2026 total procedures grew 16% year over year, with da Vinci up 15% and Ion up 36%; U.S. da Vinci growth slowed to 12% | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | 2026 da Vinci procedure growth maintained at 13.5% to 15.5% near the midpoint; non-GAAP gross margin raised to 68% to 69% | Intuitive Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 40.52x TTM PE, 31.27x forward PE, 6.88x PB, 38.74x P/FCF, and 2.58% FCF yield from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 33 analysts with an average price target of $477.25, about 35% above the current price | StockAnalysis forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $399.39, 200-day MA $481.88, RSI 40.02, 20-day average volume about 4.05 million, 52-week range $328.57 to $603.88 | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 2, 2026 |
This ISRG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if filings, prices, procedure growth, margins, coverage, competition, regulation, or market conditions change.
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