Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. research snapshot
CHKP AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Check Point Software as a high-margin, cash-rich cybersecurity platform whose problem is growth, not quality. The stock closed at $127.13 on July 31, 2026, down about 32% over 52 weeks, with a market capitalization near $12.98 billion, re-verified as $127.13 times 102.10 million shares with 0.00% deviation. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered total revenue of $674 million, up only 1% year over year, as security subscription growth of 12% was offset by a 14% decline in product revenue tied to the go-to-market reorganization and softer firewall appliance demand. Non-GAAP EPS rose 8% to $2.55, GAAP EPS rose 2% to $1.87, adjusted free cash flow reached $161 million, and RPO grew 7% to about $2.6 billion. Management kept the full-year 2026 guidance unchanged, expects Q3 to be the trough, and projects product revenue to return to growth in Q4. The stock trades at about 12.95x trailing GAAP EPS and 11.78x forward earnings, with about $2.2 billion of net cash including marketable securities and deposits, and the company repurchased about 2.5 million shares at an average of $131 in Q2 while expanding the buyback program by $2 billion. The bearish read is that email security, CTEM, and AI security products grew over 40% in ARR but appliance demand and the product line are contracting, JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Neutral, and Roth cut its target to $105. The page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$127.13
Market cap
About $12.98 billion, verified as $127.13 times 102.10 million shares with 0.00% deviation
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
High-margin, cash-rich cybersecurity franchise trading at a low multiple, but with revenue growth stuck near 1% after a 14% product revenue decline, so execution and a Q4 product rebound are the swing factors
Trend status
Downtrend: CHKP closed at $127.13 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, after a roughly 32% decline over the past 52 weeks
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Check Point sells network, cloud, workspace, and security-operations software that enterprises pay for because breach prevention, policy control, and AI adoption governance are mission critical. Gross margin is near 87%, with a subscription mix that is now the largest revenue line. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand history in firewalls, an installed base, threat-prevention reputation, subscription renewals, Infinity Platform breadth, and the new AI Defense Plane, though platform consolidation rivals can still take wallet share and appliances are under pressure. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder Gil Shwed is Executive Chairman. Nadav Zafrir became CEO in December 2024 after Team8 and Unit 8200 experience. The Q2 2026 plan is to stabilize the go-to-market, add hundreds of salespeople for a 2027 benefit, and launch the AI Network Firewall as part of the AI Defense Plane. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 1% to $674 million with security subscriptions up 12% to $333 million, RPO up 7% to about $2.6 billion, GAAP EPS up 2% to $1.87, non-GAAP EPS up 8% to $2.55, and adjusted free cash flow of $161 million, offset by a 14% product revenue decline. | High |
| Valuation | At $127.13, CHKP trades near 12.95x TTM GAAP EPS of about $9.82, about 4.70x sales, and about 11.76x trailing free cash flow with a free cash flow yield near 8.5%, using figures verified during this refresh. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CHKP is in a downtrend, trading below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near $133.08, $133.89, $131.13, $134.04, and $158.99, with 14-day RSI near 44 and weak 14-day ADX near 14. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are product revenue contraction from go-to-market disruption, firewall appliance demand softness, competition from faster-growing platform vendors, the margin cost of sales capacity investment, tax-rate normalization, convertible note dilution optics, and geopolitical exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call during this refresh. Lower for forward return estimates because the Q3 trough, Q4 product rebound, and sales ramp outcomes are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CHKP looks like a cheap, cash-rich, high-margin franchise, but the certainty of a re-rating depends on evidence that growth can recover beyond the 2026 trough. The page gives a research framework and scenarios, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CHKP AI stock forecast
The CHKP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $127.13 and the FY2026 consensus non-GAAP EPS near $10.42. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $96 to $105, a base area near $140 to $155, and a bullish area near $205 to $225 over three years, using EPS growth of 1%, 4%, and 7% and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 17x. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and trailing EPS still carries a one-time 2025 tax benefit.
$205 to $225
More likely if security subscription growth re-accelerates, product revenue returns to growth in Q4 as planned, the AI Network Firewall and CTEM drive new bookings, the 2027 sales capacity ramp lands, margins hold near current levels, and investors re-rate CHKP toward a low-teens forward multiple.
$140 to $155
More likely if revenue compounds near mid-single digits, subscriptions grow in the high single to low double digits, product stabilizes after the go-to-market changes, tax-normalized EPS grows modestly, buybacks support EPS, and the market keeps CHKP near its current forward multiple.
$90 to $105
More likely if product revenue keeps declining into 2027, subscription growth decelerates, competition forces discounting, the sales capacity investment squeezes margins, execution misses the Q4 rebound, or the market compresses the multiple toward the area implied by the Roth $105 target.
CHKP AI technical analysis
CHKP AI technical analysis is bearish to neutral as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $127.13 on July 31, 2026, below the 5-day moving average near $133.08, the 20-day near $133.89, the 50-day near $131.13, the 100-day near $134.04, and the 200-day near $158.99. The 52-week range is about $112.23 to $210.66, with the stock down about 32% over 52 weeks and about 31% year to date. Momentum is weak, with 14-day RSI near 44 and 14-day ADX near 14 signaling a low-trend, range-prone tape rather than a clear breakout.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $127.13 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 102.10 million shares outstanding. |
| Immediate support | $124 to $126 | The July 31, 2026 intraday low was about $124.59, and round-number demand sits near $125, so this is the first nearby floor before the major low. |
| Major support | $112 to $115 | The 52-week low is about $112.23, which is the key downside reference. A close below it would open a new leg lower. |
| Immediate resistance | $131 to $134 | The 50-day moving average near $131.13, the 20-day near $133.89, and the 100-day near $134.04 form a cluster overhead, plus the 5-day near $133.08. |
| Next resistance | $146 to $148 | The year-to-date average near $146.38 and the round $146 to $148 area are the next overhead reference before the 200-day. |
| 200-day resistance | $158.99 | The 200-day moving average near $158.99 remains far above price, so the longer trend is still down until price reclaims it. |
| Moving averages | 5-day about $133.08, 20-day about $133.89, 50-day about $131.13, 100-day about $134.04, 200-day about $158.99 | Barchart reported these averages as of July 31, 2026, with price below every average, which is a classic downtrend structure. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44, ADX near 14 | 14-day RSI near 44.30 is neutral, and 14-day ADX near 14.11 with negative directional index above positive directional index shows weak bearish momentum rather than a strong trend. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.39 million shares | The 20-day average volume is about 1.39 million shares, useful for judging whether any rebound attempt has real follow-through. |
| Volatility | 14-day historical volatility near 52% | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 51.97% and 14-day average true range near 4.7% of price, so position sizing should account for large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $112.23, reclaim of $134 | A close below the 52-week low near $112.23 would invalidate the base case. A sustained reclaim of the $131 to $134 moving average cluster would be the first repair signal in the downtrend. |
CHKP AI trading strategy
The CHKP AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines product revenue and go-to-market checks, subscription and RPO growth, AI product traction, free cash flow and buyback discipline, tax-normalized earnings awareness, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CHKP to reclaim and hold above the $131 to $134 moving average cluster while new data confirms a Q4 product revenue rebound, subscription growth in the high single digits or better, RPO and billing quality, and no further guidance cut.
A failed reclaim followed by a close back below $127 or a break of the $112.23 low should reduce setup confidence, especially if management signals more go-to-market disruption or appliance weakness.
If CHKP pulls back toward the $112 to $126 zone without a breakdown in subscriptions, RPO, or free cash flow, compare the valuation reset with the near 8.5% free cash flow yield, about $2.2 billion of net cash, and the buyback pace before acting.
Do not treat the pullback as attractive if subscription growth slows below high single digits, product revenue keeps falling, or guidance implies the Q4 rebound will not happen.
Track total revenue growth, security subscription revenue, calculated billings, RPO, product and appliance trends, non-GAAP operating margin, free cash flow, share repurchase pace, convertible note effects, sales headcount ramp, and contribution from AI security products such as CTEM and email security.
Position sizing should reflect that trailing GAAP EPS looks cheaper than normalized earnings power because FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $11.89 included a tax-related benefit, and the FY2026 consensus of about $10.42 embeds tax normalization.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Check Point because hybrid networks, clouds, endpoints, and workspaces need prevention-first security controls and, increasingly, governance for AI adoption. The business converts cyber risk into licenses, security subscriptions, support, and platform services across network, cloud, workspace, and security operations.
Check Point benefits from brand history in enterprise firewalls, a large installed base, high switching friction in security policy environments, threat-prevention reputation, and expanding Infinity Platform and AI Defense Plane coverage. The moat can narrow if customers consolidate onto faster-growing platforms from Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, Cisco, Microsoft, or Zscaler.
The thesis fails if firewall appliance demand stays soft after the go-to-market changes, if product revenue does not return to growth in Q4, if subscription growth decelerates, if the 2027 sales capacity investment pressures margins, if the AI security products fail to convert into durable billings, or if competition forces price and share losses.
Gil Shwed co-founded Check Point and moved to Executive Chairman after one of the longest Nasdaq CEO tenures. Nadav Zafrir became CEO in December 2024 after Team8 and Unit 8200 experience. Capital allocation combines large buybacks, a $2 billion buyback program expansion, selective AI security acquisitions, and a $2 billion convertible notes issue that boosted cash to near $4.2 billion.
Check Point sits in long-duration cybersecurity demand driven by cloud migration, hybrid work, ransomware, regulation, and AI-driven attack surfaces. The industry is attractive, but platform consolidation and vendor comparison are intense, and the AI security narrative does not automatically convert into Check Point share gains while appliances are declining.
At $127.13, CHKP trades near 12.95x trailing GAAP EPS, about 11.78x forward earnings, and near 11.76x trailing free cash flow with a free cash flow yield near 8.5%. Margin of safety improves if product revenue rebounds in Q4, subscription growth holds, and buybacks continue. Margin of safety shrinks if investors discover that a 1% revenue growth quarter plus the sales ramp cost does not support a re-rating.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHKP quote reference | $127.13 at the July 31, 2026 close, down about 0.86% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.98 billion, computed as $127.13 x 102.10 million shares outstanding with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics, financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 102.10 million, down about 4.38% year over year; about 24.48% insider and 76.56% institutional ownership | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 total revenues | $674 million, up 1% year over year | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 security subscriptions | $333 million, up 12% year over year | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 product revenue | Product revenues declined 14% year over year, mainly from go-to-market disruption and lower firewall appliance demand | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS and profitability | GAAP EPS $1.87 up 2%, non-GAAP EPS $2.55 up 8%, GAAP operating income $185 million at 27% of revenues, non-GAAP operating income $260 million at 39% | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Cash flow from operations $170 million at 25% of revenues, adjusted free cash flow $161 million at 24%, including about $14 million of currency hedging benefit | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| RPO and billings | RPO grew 7% to about $2.55 to $2.6 billion, current RPO near $1.6 billion up 4%, calculated billings near $639 million similar to last year, deferred revenue up 7% to $2.025 billion | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 emerging technology demand | Email security, CTEM, and AI security grew more than 40% in ARR year over year, with calculated billings from these products up 35% year over year | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Total revenue $655 to $685 million, subscription revenue $332 to $343 million, non-GAAP EPS $2.43 to $2.53 with GAAP EPS about $0.70 less, adjusted free cash flow $235 to $265 million | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Management maintained the full-year 2026 guidance given in May, expects Q3 to be the trough, and expects product revenue to return to growth in Q4 | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash balances | $4,203 million of cash, marketable securities, and short-term deposits as of June 30, 2026, up from $2,913 million a year earlier, with the increase primarily from about $1.8 billion of net proceeds from the $2 billion convertible senior notes offering | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet via StockAnalysis.com | Cash and cash equivalents near $2.28 billion, total debt near $1.97 billion, net cash near $2.23 billion at $21.83 per share on the statistics page, with the financials page showing a narrower net cash near $0.30 billion; this page uses the $4.2 billion earnings release figure as primary | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Share repurchase program | About 2.5 million shares repurchased for about $325 million in Q2 2026 at an average price near $131, and the board authorized a $2 billion expansion of the ongoing repurchase program on May 11, 2026 | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Israel R&D grants | A $28 million reduction in research and development expenses in Q2 2026 under Israel new R&D tax incentive program enacted March 30, 2026 | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| AI product news | Check Point launched the AI Network Firewall as part of the AI Defense Plane, positioned as the first to deliver AI security from the physical firewall, and is partnering with NVIDIA to embed firewall capability at the GPU level with impact expected around 2027 | Check Point Q2 2026 earnings call and PRNewswire | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 results for trend | FY2025 revenue $2.725 billion up 6.25%, net income about $1.057 billion, GAAP EPS $9.62, non-GAAP EPS $11.89 including a tax-related benefit, and free cash flow about $1.173 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Check Point FY2025 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue about $2.76 billion up 4.6%, TTM net income about $1.05 billion, TTM EPS about $9.82, TTM free cash flow about $1.10 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 12.95x, forward PE 11.78x, PS 4.70x, PB 4.78x, P/FCF 11.76x, EV/EBITDA 12.16x, EV/FCF 9.74x, free cash flow yield 8.50%, earnings yield 8.08% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $146.65 across 38 analysts, median $140, low $105, and high $201 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 14 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 23 Hold, 0 Sell out of 38 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs cut to $150 from $168 on August 1, Roth MKM cut to $105 from $160 on July 31, JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at $135, TD Cowen cut to $160 from $180, Jefferies cut to $150 from $160, Barclays cut to $140 from $145, Susquehanna raised to $150 from $140, UBS raised to $135 from $130, Stifel raised to $130 from $120, BMO raised to $140 from $135 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 5.51 million shares short, about 6.97% of shares outstanding, about 4.64 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue about $2.81 billion with non-GAAP EPS about $10.42, FY2027 revenue about $2.98 billion with non-GAAP EPS about $11.40, with FY2026 EPS reflecting tax normalization from the FY2025 benefit | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $133.08, 20-day SMA near $133.89, 50-day SMA near $131.13, 100-day SMA near $134.04, 200-day SMA near $158.99, 14-day RSI near 44.30, 14-day ADX near 14.11, 14-day historical volatility near 51.97%, 52-week range about $112.23 to $210.66 | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This CHKP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, market conditions, cybersecurity incidents, tax rates, or source data change.
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