Parsons Corporation research snapshot
PSN AI stock analysis reads Parsons Corporation as a defense, intelligence and critical infrastructure engineering contractor that just went through its worst single-day selloff after a Q2 2026 net loss and a cut to full-year guidance. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, PSN traded near $46.99 with a verified market capitalization near $5.0 billion. The stock is roughly 47% below its 52-week high of $89.50 and has rebounded about 30% off its 52-week low of $36.26. The July 29 report showed revenue near the low end of expectations, a GAAP net loss of about $15 million, adjusted EBITDA far below estimates, and full-year revenue guidance cut to about $6.35 billion from $6.65 billion. Multiple shareholder investigations have added a legal overhang. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$46.99
Market cap
$5.0 billion
AI score
48 / 100
Rating
Defense and infrastructure contractor in a post-crash repair phase after a Q2 net loss, a full-year guidance cut and shareholder investigations
Trend status
About 47% below the 52-week high, rebounding off the $36.26 low after the July 29 earnings crash
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Parsons provides engineering, technical services, and software solutions for U.S. federal government and critical infrastructure customers through Federal Solutions and Critical Infrastructure segments, with backlog near $9.26 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat comes from long-standing government relationships, security clearances, contract qualification, and domain expertise in cyber, intelligence, missile defense, and infrastructure engineering. | Medium |
| Management | Management cut 2026 guidance, reported a Q2 GAAP net loss tied partly to a $41 million weather-related joint venture charge, and now faces shareholder investigations, while pointing to backlog and Middle East organic growth as offsets. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue near $6.29 billion, TTM net income near $157 million, a profit margin near 2.5%, total debt to equity near 60%, and modest cash of about $266 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $46.99 with a price to sales ratio near 0.76x, EV to EBITDA near 13x, and roughly 22% below the average analyst target of about $60, the stock looks cheaper after the crash than it did before the July report. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | PSN is about 47% below its $89.50 52-week high, has rebounded about 30% off the $36.26 low, and is repairing momentum after the 21.8% single-day crash on July 29. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include guidance cuts, margin pressure, high debt, shareholder investigations, defense funding delays, acquisition integration, and government shutdown or protest risk on contract awards. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, audited calculations, and analyst consensus, medium for forward scenarios and technical levels. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium-low |
PSN AI stock forecast
The PSN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $46.99 quote. A two-year framework based on adjusted EPS produced a bearish area near $38, a base area near $64, and a bullish area near $85, reflecting the risk of further guidance cuts in the conservative case and a credibility recovery with margin expansion in the optimistic case.
$78 to $88
More likely if Parsons converts its $9.26 billion backlog, recovers operating margins toward high single digits, keeps Middle East and product revenue growing near 10%, and rebuilds investor confidence after the guidance reset.
$58 to $68
More likely if Parsons executes the revised revenue guidance of about $6.35 billion and EBITDA near $530 million, margins recover modestly, and the stock moves back toward the average analyst target near $60.
$34 to $42
More likely if guidance is cut again, shareholder investigations expand, debt metrics worsen, defense funding delays persist, or margins stay below prior year levels.
PSN AI technical analysis
PSN AI technical analysis shows a stock that crashed 21.8% on July 29 after its Q2 report, found a low near $36.26, and has since rebounded to about $46.99 as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Volume was well above average on the earnings selloff and has settled back since, and momentum is repairing from oversold conditions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $46.99 | Google Finance quote around the August 3, 2026 cutoff placed PSN near $46.99, after a July 31 close near $44.21. |
| Near support | $43 to $45 | The July 31 session held a range near $42.35 to $45.47, suggesting short-term support in the $43 to $45 zone. |
| Key support | $36.26 | The 52-week low near $36.26 represents the next major support level if the post-crash rebound fails. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $52 | The stock needs to clear the $50 to $52 area, which includes a round number and the Jefferies target near $52. |
| Major resistance | $58 to $60 | The $58 to $60 zone aligns with several analyst targets and likely moving average resistance from the pre-crash consolidation. |
| 52-week high | $89.50 | The 52-week high remains a distant upper reference. A return to this level would require a fundamental recovery, not just a technical bounce. |
| Momentum | RSI recovering from oversold | Momentum indicators are repairing after the July 29 crash but have not yet confirmed a durable trend reversal. |
| Volume | Earnings-day volume near 2.4 million shares | Volume spiked above the roughly 1.4 million average on the crash and has settled lower on the rebound, suggesting reduced conviction. |
| Volatility | About 47% below the 52-week high | The stock is roughly 47% off its peak and dropped about 16.8% over the last 30 days following the guidance cut and net loss. |
| Invalidation | Close below $36 | A decisive close below the 52-week low area near $36.26 would signal further downside risk toward $34 or lower. |
PSN AI trading strategy
The PSN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring a defense technology stock after a guidance cut and a single-day crash. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, earnings and guidance news, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Given the post-crash repair phase, a trend-following approach would wait for PSN to hold above $43 to $45, clear $50 to $52 on above-average volume, and sustain above its 50-day moving average before treating the July breakdown as repaired.
A failure to hold $43 or a break below the $36.26 low would confirm the downtrend is still intact. Position sizing should reflect the unresolved guidance and investigation risks.
If PSN retests the $40 to $43 zone without negative news, a mean-reversion trader could look for bullish divergence on RSI and volume exhaustion signals, with a tight stop.
Defense stocks can gap on budget news, contract awards, protests, or geopolitical events. A maximum loss rule of 5-7% is prudent.
Track execution against the revised 2026 guidance of about $6.35 billion revenue and $530 million EBITDA, backlog and book-to-bill ratios, segment margin trends, shareholder investigation updates, debt metrics, and defense funding developments.
Reduce confidence if guidance is cut again, margins keep contracting, the shareholder investigations expand, or the company adds significant debt without clear returns.
Investment research summary
Parsons provides engineering, technical, and software services that U.S. federal agencies and infrastructure operators need for mission-critical work. Customers pay because security clearances, domain expertise, contract history, and integrated solutions are costly to replace, and backlog near $9.26 billion supports future revenue.
The moat includes long-term government contracts, security clearances, specialized expertise in cyber and missile defense, and a diversified federal and infrastructure portfolio. Competition from Leidos, CACI, SAIC, and Booz Allen limits pricing power.
The thesis fails if guidance cuts continue, margins stay depressed, shareholder investigations expand, debt weakens the balance sheet, or federal funding delays drag on revenue conversion. The July 29 crash already validated part of the bearish case.
CEO Carey Smith and CFO Matt Ofilos cut 2026 guidance, took a $41 million weather-related joint venture charge, and reshaped the portfolio, while citing Middle East organic growth near 10% and strong backlog. The selloff and shareholder investigations put the quality of disclosures under scrutiny.
Parsons sits in long-duration demand for national security, intelligence, cyber, and infrastructure modernization. Middle East demand is growing, but federal funding uncertainty and delayed infrastructure ramp-ups are near-term drags.
At roughly $46.99 with a price to sales ratio near 0.76x, EV to EBITDA near 13x, and a forward adjusted P/E near 15x if adjusted EPS near $3.20 holds, the stock trades about 22% below the average analyst target of $60. The base case near $64 implies modest upside if the revised guidance is met.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSN price | $46.99 (Google Finance), $44.21 July 31 close (Yahoo Finance) | Google Finance and Yahoo Finance quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.0 billion, verified as $46.99 x 106.80 million shares = $5.02 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $36.26 to $89.50 | Yahoo Finance quote | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $6.29 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $157.41 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $1.45 | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM levered free cash flow | $213.46 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $266.04 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total Debt/Equity | 59.88% | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $6.09 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Price/Sales (ttm) | 0.76x | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.97x | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 32.41x, verified as $46.99 / $1.45 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $1.58 billion revenue (miss), GAAP net loss of $15.22 million, adjusted EPS $0.86 (beat), adjusted EBITDA $42.22 million (miss) | Yahoo Finance earnings and StockStory earnings review | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Revenue midpoint cut to $6.35 billion from $6.65 billion, EBITDA near $530 million | StockStory Q2 2026 earnings review | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog | $9.26 billion, up 4% year on year | StockStory Q2 2026 earnings review | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 9 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell; average target $60.20 (Google Finance), 1-year target estimate $60.09 (Yahoo Finance) | Google Finance analyst ratings and Yahoo Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y monthly) | 0.66 (Google Finance) to 0.69 (Yahoo Finance) | Google Finance and Yahoo Finance quote data | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell PSN stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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