Palantir Technologies Inc. research snapshot
PLTR AI stock analysis reads Palantir Technologies Inc. as a high-growth AI software platform that turned its operating leverage into roughly 44% trailing net margin, but the stock still trades at a premium multiple and sits in a downtrend below its key moving averages. This is a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $123.06, market capitalization was about $295.01 billion, and the stock was down about 40% from its 52-week high of $207.52 with second-quarter earnings due August 3, 2026. The main decision point is whether continued revenue growth near 50% to 80% can justify a forward price to earnings ratio near 77x and a price to sales ratio near 56x. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$123.06
Market cap
$295.01 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
High-quality AI software platform with premium valuation and near-term earnings risk
Trend status
Downtrend below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages ahead of the August 3 earnings report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Palantir sells AI-driven data platforms to government and commercial customers. TTM revenue was about $5.22 billion, up 67.7%, with Q1 2026 revenue up 84.7% to $1.63 billion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from long government relationships, national-security-grade deployments, deep workflow integration, an ontology-based approach, and high switching costs once customers embed AIP into operations. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder Alex Karp leads with strong mission alignment, and insider ownership is about 7.4%. Stock-based compensation remains large relative to net income and is a governance item to track. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM net income was about $2.28 billion with net margin near 44%, TTM free cash flow about $2.69 billion, and net cash of about $7.81 billion. The trend is strongly positive but SBC dilutes shareholders. | High |
| Valuation | Even after the pullback, the stock trades near 138x trailing earnings, 77x forward earnings, and 56x trailing sales. The price still assumes a long runway of rapid growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PLTR closed at $123.06, below the 50-day moving average near $130.72 and the 200-day moving average near $152.89, with RSI near 44 and the stock down about 31% year to date. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are multiple compression, growth deceleration, AI spending cuts by large labs, competition from open-source AI and European challengers, SBC dilution, and key-person reliance on the founder. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for reported financials, quote math, technical levels, and valuation ratios. Lower confidence for forward returns because the earnings catalyst and multiple are the swing factors. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction, and the premium valuation limits certainty at this price. | Medium |
PLTR AI stock forecast
The PLTR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $123.06 cutoff price rather than a point target. Ranges are anchored to the 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates of $1.48 and $2.09 and to the analyst target spread of $70 to $255. The bullish case requires growth near 50% to 80% to continue with a stable multiple; the base case assumes earnings grow while the multiple compresses; the bearish case assumes the multiple resets toward the low end of analyst expectations.
$175 to $215
More likely if Palantir reports a beat and raise on August 3, growth stays above 50%, commercial momentum holds, cash flow stays strong, and investors value the stock near the consensus target of about $182 to $200 while a premium multiple is maintained.
$105 to $150
More likely if earnings grow but the multiple compresses from about 77x toward 80x to 95x of 2026 estimates, growth moderates, and the stock range-trades until the market sees a few more quarters of execution.
$65 to $95
More likely if AI spending slows, growth decelerates sharply, guidance disappoints on August 3, competition from open-source AI or European challengers increases, or the market resets the multiple toward the analyst low target of $70.
PLTR AI technical analysis
PLTR AI technical analysis starts from the $123.06 July 31 close. The stock is below both its 50-day moving average near $130.72 and its 200-day moving average near $152.89, with RSI near 44 and price action still in a downtrend from the $207.52 high. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $123.06 | Latest verified close as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, down about 31% year to date. |
| Near support | $119.60 to $120 | The July 31 intraday low area around $119.62, the zone where the stock found early buying this week. |
| Secondary support | $106.37 | The 52-week low. A sustained break below this level would signal a deeper correction. |
| Near resistance | $130.72 | The 50-day moving average, the first technical hurdle above the current price. |
| Key resistance | $152.89 | The 200-day moving average. Reclaiming this area would be the first sign of a longer-term trend repair. |
| 50-day moving average | About $130.72 | PLTR closed below this average, which keeps the short-term trend negative. |
| 200-day moving average | About $152.89 | Price below this average confirms the medium-term downtrend is still in place. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44, negative trend | Relative strength is below 50 and the stock is still making lower highs after the $207.52 peak. |
| Volume | About 29.1 million shares on July 31 | Below the roughly 34.0 million 20-day average, consistent with choppy consolidation before the earnings report. |
| Volatility | High, beta near 1.56 | Options markets expect a large swing around the August 3 earnings report, so position sizing matters. |
| Invalidation | Close below $106.37 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken the setup. Resistance stays at $130.72 and then $152.89. |
PLTR AI trading strategy
The PLTR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels around an imminent earnings catalyst.
Wait for PLTR to reclaim the $130.72 area on rising volume after the August 3 report, then watch for a move toward $152.89 before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A close back below $119.60 or a bearish reaction to earnings should invalidate the setup before adding risk.
If PLTR holds above the $106.37 low and shows a stabilization pattern with RSI recovery, compare price action with Q2 guidance, AI spending commentary, and cash flow before acting.
Do not average down simply because the business is high quality. Define a maximum loss and review the premium valuation and SBC dilution first.
Track total revenue growth, government versus commercial mix, remaining performance obligations, Q2 and Q3 guidance, AI spending sentiment, SBC as a share of cash flow, and any customer concentration disclosures.
Reduce confidence if growth guidance decelerates, margins compress, or the stock keeps losing ground while holding a premium multiple.
Investment research summary
Palantir helps governments and enterprises turn data into decisions through Gotham, Foundry, and AIP platforms, then keeps them on the platform because the deployments are deeply embedded in operations.
The moat comes from long national-security relationships, high deployment switching costs, an ontology-based data integration approach, and a forward-deployed engineering model that competitors find hard to replicate quickly.
The thesis can fail if growth decelerates faster than the multiple allows, AI lab spending slows, open-source AI or European challengers win deals, the founder becomes a single point of failure, or SBC dilution keeps outpacing cash flow.
Founder Alex Karp keeps strong mission and ownership alignment, but heavy stock-based compensation and key-person reliance remain the governance items most likely to create long-term value leakage.
AI software is a major long-term shift and Palantir sits near the center of it, but the industry debate about AI spending durability and the rise of open-source models makes near-term monetization the open question.
At about 138x trailing earnings and 77x forward earnings, the price still assumes a long runway of rapid growth. A margin of safety would need a lower entry price, slower-growth expectations, or evidence that the multiple is sustainable.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR price | $123.06 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $295.01 billion, verified as $123.06 x 2.40 billion shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $5.22 billion, up 67.7% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $1.63 billion, up 84.7% year over year | StockAnalysis quarterly financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | About $2.28 billion, EPS $0.89, net margin near 44% | StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $2.69 billion, FCF margin near 51.5% | StockAnalysis cash flow data | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $8.03 billion cash and investments, $211.98 million total debt, net cash near $7.81 billion as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis balance sheet data | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | 138.34x trailing PE, 77.34x forward PE, 56.47x trailing PS, 109.74x trailing P/FCF | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA near $130.72, 200-day MA near $152.89, RSI near 44 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $106.37 to $207.52 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 32 analysts, average target $182.20, low $70, high $255 | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates | 2026 estimate $1.48, 2027 estimate $2.09 (non-GAAP) | StockAnalysis forecast page | August 2, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 3, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis quote page and earnings coverage | August 2, 2026 |
This PLTR AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, the August 3 earnings report, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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