Bullish case
$70 to $85
More likely if the August 6 Q2 report shows better-than-feared net member adds, same-club sales stabilize, marketing returns to the core casual audience, and franchisee and balance sheet concerns ease.
Planet Fitness, Inc. research snapshot
PLNT AI Stock Analysis
PLNT AI stock analysis reads Planet Fitness Inc. as the dominant low-price fitness franchisor in the United States, now working through a steep correction after cutting 2026 guidance in May. At the August 4, 2026 cutoff, the latest quoted price was $56.73, market capitalization was about $4.51 billion, and the stock was up roughly 28% from the $44.01 post-earnings low set on May 7. The main question is whether membership growth, marketing execution, and franchisee health can stabilize ahead of the Q2 2026 report scheduled for August 6. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$56.73
Market cap
$4.51 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Fitness franchisor in a recovery attempt after a 2026 guidance cut
Trend status
Reversing off the May 2026 low, still below the 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. Planet Fitness has public filings, broad analyst coverage, and dense media attention, but the most important operating metrics (net member adds, same-club sales, marketing response) change quickly after the May 2026 guidance cut and need fresh filings to verify.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is anchoring to either the pre-crash valuation near $114 or the post-crash trough near $44. This analysis separates verified financial data from scenario assumptions and does not treat the analyst consensus target as a price promise.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence for market data and reported financials
- investment Certainty
- Medium-low. A decisive view needs the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, updated membership data, and evidence that the marketing pivot is being reversed, not just valuation levels.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Planet Fitness runs a capital-light franchise model with recurring membership revenue, a wide low-price audience, and strong unit economics, though growth slowed after a marketing pivot that alienated its core casual member base. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand recognition, the largest US gym footprint, the judgement-free positioning, the $10 entry price, and auto-draft recurring billing. The May guidance cut shows the brand still depends on consistent marketing execution. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Colleen Keating leads a team that added CFO and President of International Sudhanshu Priyadarshi in June 2026. The May 2026 guidance cut and the admission that marketing pivoted too far are the key execution tests for the new team. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose about 12% to roughly $1.24 billion with net income near $219 million, but management cut 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth guidance in May and high debt of about $2.9 billion remains a watch item. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $56.73 with a TTM P/E near 20x and a forward P/E near 17x, valuation is well below 2025 levels and below the 5-year average, reflecting lower guidance, litigation overhang, and the recovery attempt that is not yet confirmed. | Medium |
| Technical trend | PLNT formed a base after the May 7, 2026 crash and has reclaimed the 50-day average while staying well below the 200-day average. Resistance near $60 to $62 and support near $50 to $52 are the near-term levels to watch. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risk paths are sustained membership pressure, a failed marketing turnaround, consumer spending weakness, high leverage, and securities class actions filed after the May stock drop. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High data confidence for price, market cap, reported financials, and analyst targets. Lower confidence for membership trend projections because the Q1 2026 guidance cut is recent and the Q2 report is not yet released. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Low-to-medium. The page gives a research framework, not a personalized buy or sell instruction, and the August 6 report plus fresh membership data are required before high-conviction decisions. | Low-medium |
PLNT AI stock forecast
PLNT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The PLNT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $56.73 quote rather than a point promise. The bullish case depends on evidence that membership growth and same-club sales recover after the marketing pivot is reversed; the base case assumes the recovery stalls; the bearish case assumes the guidance cut signals a deeper operating problem.
Base case
$48 to $62
More likely if membership trends stay soft but stable, the company keeps 2026 guidance at the reduced levels, legal overhang persists, and the stock consolidates between support and the $60 to $62 resistance zone.
Bearish case
$32 to $42
More likely if membership pressure deepens, the Q2 report disappoints, consumer spending weakens, leverage metrics deteriorate, or litigation produces adverse findings while support near $44 to $45 fails.
PLNT AI technical analysis
PLNT AI Technical Analysis
PLNT AI technical analysis starts from the $56.73 quote after a roughly 50% drawdown from the July 2025 high near $114.47. The stock has bounced off the May 7, 2026 crash low of $44.01 and reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $56.73 | Latest quote used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $50 to $52 | The 50-day average sits near the low $50s. Treat this as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Key support | $44 to $45 | The May 7, 2026 post-earnings crash low near $44.01. A close below it would reopen the bearish scenario range. |
| Near resistance | $60 to $62 | A gap and recent swing zone. A close above this area would improve short-term momentum and shift the setup toward the bullish range. |
| 52-week high | $114.26 | Set in July 2025 before the guidance-driven selloff. The stock remains roughly 50% below this level. |
| 50-day moving average | Near $52.50 | Reclaimed after the May crash. Holding above it supports a bottoming narrative. |
| 200-day moving average | Near $79.00 | Well above the current price, meaning the long-term trend is still down until PLNT can reclaim this level. |
| Momentum | Turning up short term | Recovery off the May low is intact, but momentum needs volume confirmation and a clean break of resistance to extend. |
| Volume | Monitor the breakout | The rebound came on elevated volume after the crash. Watch for volume that confirms a break above $60 to $62. |
| Volatility | High | Recent daily swings are wide and short interest near 11.7% of shares outstanding adds squeeze risk in both directions. |
| Invalidation | Close below $44 | A decisive close below the May low would break the bottoming pattern and point toward the bearish range. |
PLNT AI trading strategy
PLNT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The PLNT AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh Q2 results or operational data checks.
Trend-following setup
For a recovery bias, wait for a confirmed close above the $60 to $62 resistance zone on rising volume before treating the short-term trend as up. A bearish bias would instead target a loss of the $50 to $52 support zone.
A close below $44 invalidates the recovery setup. A close below $50 to $52 without news should tighten risk before the August 6 report.
Mean-reversion setup
If PLNT retests the $50 to $52 support without a fundamental thesis break, compare the price action with Q2 results, membership data, and analyst commentary before considering a long.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of litigation and leverage risk before the earnings date.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most: net member adds, same-club sales, royalty and franchisee revenue growth, marketing messaging changes, debt levels, and the status of securities class actions.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines without matching fundamental evidence, or when the Q2 report contradicts the recovery narrative.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Planet Fitness sells low-price, judgement-free fitness memberships through a capital-light franchise model. Members pay recurring monthly fees, and franchisees carry club-level capital and operating costs.
Moat
The moat comes from the Planet Fitness brand, the largest US gym footprint, the low entry price that opens a wide addressable market, and auto-draft recurring revenue. The May 2026 marketing misstep shows execution still matters more than the installed base.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if membership growth stays weak after the marketing pivot, franchisees struggle with economics, consumer spending softens, low-cost rivals gain share, high debt constrains flexibility, or the securities litigation escalates.
Management
CEO Colleen Keating leads, with CFO Sudhanshu Priyadarshi appointed in June 2026. The May guidance cut and the marketing pivot admission are the key tests of capital allocation discipline and franchisee partnership quality.
Industry trend
The fitness industry sits on a long-term health and wellness trend, but the budget segment faces competition from Crunch, Eos, and other low-price operators, and consumer discretionary pressure is a near-term headwind.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 20x trailing earnings and roughly 17x forward earnings with a $4.51B market cap, valuation is far below 2025 levels. The margin of safety depends on whether the market has already priced in the growth problem or whether the Q2 report reveals more downside.
Source-backed data
PLNT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLNT price | $56.73 | Current quote snapshot from StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.51 billion, verified as $56.73 x 79.44M shares with 0.07% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Exchange | NYSE | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 20.16x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.77 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (FY2025) | ~$1.24B, up about 12% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Net income (FY2025) | $219.10M, up about 27% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | ~$2.9B with net debt near $2.4B | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | $265.9M | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Buy, average target $66.53 across 19 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Guidance change and stock drop | Q1 2026 report on May 7 cut 2026 revenue growth guidance to about 7% from about 9% and adjusted EBITDA growth to about 6% from about 10%, triggering a 31% single-day drop to $44.01 | Bleichmar Fonti & Auld press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 scheduled for August 6, 2026 before market open | StockAnalysis.com forecast and company announcement | August 4, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This PLNT AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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