Bullish case
$300 to $320
More likely if personal auto policy growth stays strong, May 2026-style underwriting margins persist, commercial auto improves, catastrophe losses remain manageable, and the market values PGR near 14x normalized earnings.
The Progressive Corporation research snapshot
PGR AI Stock Analysis
PGR AI stock analysis currently reads Progressive as a high-quality personal auto and property-casualty insurer with clear underwriting discipline, strong brand reach, advanced segmentation, and unusually strong recent profitability. The stock is not a simple bargain because the market already prices in a durable underwriting edge. As of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, the key question is whether Progressive can keep growing policies and premiums while loss costs, catastrophe losses, regulation, and competitive pricing normalize.
Current price
$234.40
Market cap
$136.97 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality insurer with strong underwriting, but not a low-risk entry
Trend status
Rebounding above key moving averages with elevated RSI
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Progressive is a long-listed large-cap insurer with SEC filings, monthly financial releases, detailed segment data, active analyst coverage, and frequently updated market data.
- bias Check
- The main AI research risk is extrapolation from a strong underwriting cycle. This page checks the opposite case: auto severity inflation, rate pressure, adverse reserve development, catastrophe weather, Florida credits, regulatory limits, and multiple compression after a strong multi-year run.
- ai Confidence
- High for reported financials, share count, market data, combined ratio, premiums, and policies in force. Medium for forward scenarios because insurance profitability can change quickly when loss frequency, severity, pricing, weather, and investment markets move.
- investment Certainty
- Medium-high for business quality and underwriting culture, medium for entry price. Progressive is a strong operator, but investor returns from here depend on whether peak profitability proves durable.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Progressive sells personal auto, special lines, homeowners, renters, commercial auto, and small-business insurance through direct and agent channels, with personal lines driving most premiums. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand awareness, direct distribution, agent relationships, pricing data, usage-based insurance, claims scale, advertising efficiency, and decades of underwriting discipline. | High |
| Management | Tricia Griffith remains President and CEO, and the company keeps a clear operating goal of growing as fast as possible while maintaining a 96 or better calendar-year combined ratio. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $87.671 billion, FY2025 net income was $11.308 billion, May 2026 net premiums written rose 6%, and May 2026 combined ratio improved to 82.1. | High |
| Valuation | At $234.40, PGR trades near 11.9x TTM EPS, 1.5x sales, 4.3x book value, and 8.3x TTM free cash flow per share. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock closed above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but RSI near 73 means the rebound is extended rather than early. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are loss-cost inflation, adverse reserve development, catastrophe losses, price competition, regulation, investment portfolio volatility, and valuation reset. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis has high data confidence, while the forecast remains a conditional insurance-cycle scenario rather than a price prediction. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business certainty is stronger than valuation certainty. Progressive can remain an excellent insurer while the stock produces modest returns if earnings normalize. | Medium |
PGR AI stock forecast
PGR AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The PGR AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed price target. Using a July 7, 2026 close of $234.40, TTM EPS near $19.66, and a three-year framework, financial_rigor.py produced a bearish area near $138, a base area near $236, and a bullish area near $310 before dividends. The outcome depends on whether Progressive keeps combined ratios well below its 96 target while premium growth remains positive.
Base case
$225 to $245
More likely if EPS is roughly flat over three years, premium growth stays mid-single digit, the combined ratio normalizes but remains comfortably under 96, and the stock holds a roughly 12x earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$130 to $145
More likely if auto severity, attorney involvement, weather losses, regulatory credits, or aggressive industry pricing push earnings down and the market reprices PGR toward a lower insurance-cycle multiple.
PGR AI technical analysis
PGR AI Technical Analysis
PGR AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis reported a July 7 close of $234.40, a 50-day moving average near $204.45, a 200-day moving average near $213.22, RSI near 73.21, and average 20-day volume near 3.72 million shares. The stock is above major averages, but momentum is already hot ahead of June 2026 results expected on July 15, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $234.40 | StockAnalysis reported the July 7, 2026 close at $234.40. |
| Near support | $225 to $232 | This zone covers the recent consolidation area before the July 15 monthly results catalyst. |
| Deeper support | $204.45 to $213.22 | The 50-day and 200-day moving averages form the first major trend support zone. |
| Near resistance | $235 to $240 | A move above this area would need earnings and combined-ratio confirmation because RSI is already elevated. |
| Higher resistance | $250 to $260 | This would imply the market is extending the premium multiple for underwriting quality. |
| 50-day SMA | $204.45 | PGR is trading above this level, which supports the current uptrend but also leaves pullback risk. |
| 200-day SMA | $213.22 | A sustained break below this average would weaken the medium-term setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 73.21 | Momentum is strong but stretched, so new entries need disciplined invalidation levels. |
| Volume | 3.72 million average shares | Average 20-day volume from StockAnalysis should be compared with volume after the next monthly release. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.25 | PGR is low beta, but insurer stocks can still reprice sharply around loss trends, reserve signals, or catastrophe updates. |
| Invalidation | Close below $204 | A decisive break below the 50-day average would invalidate the near-term momentum setup. |
PGR AI trading strategy
PGR AI Trading Strategy Framework
The PGR AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It separates a long-term underwriting-quality thesis from a shorter-term technical setup that is already extended.
Trend-following setup
Wait for PGR to hold above the $213 to $225 zone after the July 15 monthly release, ideally with continued premium growth, a combined ratio below the 96 target, and volume that confirms institutional support.
Treat a close below the 50-day moving average near $204 as evidence that the momentum setup has failed.
Mean-reversion setup
If PGR pulls back toward the 200-day average without adverse reserve news, compare valuation, combined ratio, policy growth, catastrophe commentary, and investment income before assuming the dip is attractive.
Do not average down only because Progressive is a high-quality insurer. A worse loss-cost trend can turn a valuation reset into an earnings reset.
Fundamental monitor
Track monthly net premiums written, policies in force, personal auto growth, commercial auto profitability, combined ratio, catastrophe losses, Florida credits, reserve development, book value, and investment income.
Update scenario ranges after each monthly report. The stock can fall even with strong premiums if investors conclude that underwriting margins have peaked.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Progressive monetizes risk selection and claims execution. Customers pay for legally required and economically necessary insurance, while Progressive earns value by pricing risk more accurately than competitors and servicing claims efficiently.
Moat
The moat is built on data scale, segmentation models, Snapshot and other usage-based tools, a trusted consumer brand, direct distribution, independent-agent reach, claims infrastructure, and a culture that treats a 96 combined ratio as a hard operating discipline.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis fails if underwriting margins are cyclically inflated, if loss severity rises faster than rates, if reserves prove inadequate, if weather losses rise, if regulators limit pricing, or if rivals copy Progressive pricing and service tools.
Management
Tricia Griffith has led a period of strong policy growth and profitability. The key management test is whether Progressive can keep growing when competitors become more rational and when rate decreases or policyholder credits pressure margins.
Industry trend
Personal auto insurance is not a high-growth software market, but it has durable demand, required coverage, large addressable premiums, and rising value for data-driven underwriting. Telematics and segmentation favor operators that price and service risk well.
Valuation and margin of safety
At roughly 11.9x TTM EPS and 4.3x book value, PGR is cheaper on current earnings than many quality compounders but expensive versus book for an insurer. Margin of safety depends on normalized earnings, not just the latest combined ratio.
Source-backed data
PGR Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGR price | $234.40 at the July 7, 2026 close | StockAnalysis PGR statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $136.97 billion reported, with financial_rigor.py calculating $136.97 billion from $234.40 x 584.34 million shares | StockAnalysis PGR statistics page and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 584.34 million shares outstanding, cross-checked against May 2026 average diluted equivalent shares of 584.2 million | StockAnalysis and Progressive May 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $87.671 billion total revenues, cross-validated with StockAnalysis TTM revenue of $89.42 billion | Progressive 2025 Annual Report and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $11.308 billion, cross-validated with StockAnalysis TTM net income of $11.56 billion | Progressive 2025 Annual Report and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| May 2026 monthly results | Net premiums written $7.027 billion, net income $1.445 billion, combined ratio 82.1, and total policies in force 39.970 million | Progressive May 2026 results | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 11.92x, PB 4.27x, P/FCF 8.34x, dividend yield 5.93%, and FCF yield 11.99% | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | July 8, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and cash source gap | Progressive reported $125 million of cash and equivalents plus $10.005 billion of short-term investments at FY2025, while StockAnalysis reported $2.29 billion of cash and equivalents on a different TTM data basis | Progressive 2025 Annual Report and StockAnalysis | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day SMA $204.45, 200-day SMA $213.22, RSI 73.21, 20-day average volume 3.72 million, and beta 0.25 | StockAnalysis PGR statistics page | July 8, 2026 |
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This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell PGR. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, valuation assumptions, and technical context as of the stated data cutoff, and they can be wrong.