The Allstate Corporation research snapshot
ALL AI stock analysis currently reads The Allstate Corporation as a stronger property and casualty insurer after a sharp underwriting recovery, higher policy growth, active capital returns, and improved book value. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, ALL traded near $251.46 with a verified market capitalization near $64.73 billion. The bullish signal is quality of recent earnings, while the main caution is that insurance profits can reverse quickly if catastrophe losses, reserve releases, pricing, or equity markets turn. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$251.46
Market cap
$64.73 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality insurer, valuation tied to underwriting cycle
Trend status
Bullish but extended after a fresh 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Allstate sells auto, homeowners, protection plans, roadside, identity, and data-enabled protection products where customers pay for risk transfer, claims handling, distribution access, and brand trust. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from brand, agency and direct distribution, claims data, pricing analytics, regulatory licenses, scale, investment portfolio management, and bundled customer relationships. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management has pushed Transformative Growth, sold non-core health benefits assets, raised the dividend, authorized a $4.0 billion buyback, and returned capital while underwriting results improved. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $67.685 billion and net income rose to $10.282 billion, while Q1 2026 revenue increased 3.0% to $16.941 billion and common-share net income rose to $2.428 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $251.46, ALL traded near 5.55x TTM EPS of $45.33, 2.22x Q1 2026 book value per common share of $113.52, and a 1.72% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart was bullish but stretched, with ALL above 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, RSI above 70, and the stock setting a fresh 52-week high on July 7, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include catastrophe losses, adverse reserve development, regulatory pushback on rate increases, auto severity inflation, investment losses, competitive pricing, and capital return timing. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for forward scenarios and technical setup quality. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames monitoring rules and scenario math rather than a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ALL AI stock forecast
The ALL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $251.46 quote, WSJ TTM EPS of $45.33, and a cyclical insurance multiple range. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $159, a base area near $249, and a bullish area near $337 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$330 to $345
More likely if Property-Liability combined ratios stay near the low 80s, auto and homeowners policies keep growing, catastrophe losses stay manageable, rate adequacy holds, and investors reward ALL with roughly a 7x earnings multiple.
$240 to $260
More likely if earnings normalize near current TTM levels, book value grows, buybacks reduce share count, and the market keeps valuing ALL around a mid single digit earnings multiple.
$155 to $165
More likely if catastrophe losses rise, prior-year reserve releases reverse, regulators slow rate actions, investment losses widen, or insurer multiples compress toward the lower end of the cycle.
ALL AI technical analysis
ALL AI technical analysis is bullish but overbought as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $251.46 on July 7 after reaching a new 52-week high, while AltIndex listed RSI at 76.6, the 50-day moving average near $223.90, and the 200-day moving average near $210.60.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $251.46 | StockAnalysis and MarketWatch snapshots placed ALL near $251.46 after the July 7, 2026 close. |
| Near support | $237 to $240 | The 20-day moving average area and the old resistance zone create the first pullback area to monitor after the breakout. |
| Intermediate support | $223.90 to $228.50 | AltIndex listed the 50-day SMA at $223.90 and 50-day EMA at $228.50, a key trend zone if the overbought reading cools. |
| Long-term support | $210.60 to $213.90 | AltIndex listed the 200-day SMA at $210.60 and 200-day EMA at $213.90, which marks the broader trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $251 to $258 | ALL broke above prior resistance around $240.94 and traded into a fresh high zone, so new resistance is defined by failed follow-through near the recent high range. |
| Momentum | RSI 76.6 | RSI above 70 signals strong momentum but also higher pullback risk after a rapid advance. |
| Volume | 2.2 million versus 1.8 million 50-day average | MarketWatch reported July 7 volume above the 50-day average, supporting breakout confirmation but also showing heavy attention. |
| Volatility | At a new 52-week high | The July 7 close surpassed the prior 52-week high, which raises trend strength and mean-reversion risk at the same time. |
| Invalidation | Close below $223 | A decisive close below the 50-day area would weaken the breakout setup and force a reassessment of trend-following exposure. |
ALL AI trading strategy
The ALL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a large property and casualty insurer after a breakout. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, catastrophe updates, earnings releases, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for ALL to hold above the $237 to $240 former resistance area and then extend through the recent high zone with volume above average. Confirmation improves if the next earnings update shows durable combined-ratio strength and policy growth.
A close back below $223 or a failed breakout after catastrophe-loss news should invalidate the near-term momentum setup.
If RSI cools from overbought and ALL pulls toward the 20-day or 50-day moving average without a negative underwriting update, compare the pullback with PGR, TRV, HIG, catastrophe reports, and rate filing news.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because insurers can gap after catastrophe events, reserve revisions, or investment-market shocks.
Track Property-Liability combined ratio, underlying combined ratio, catastrophe losses, policies in force, average premiums, book value per share, share repurchases, dividend coverage, and investment portfolio returns.
Reduce confidence if earnings depend mainly on reserve releases or one-time investment gains instead of sustainable underwriting margins and profitable policy growth.
Investment research summary
Allstate sells financial protection against everyday risks. Customers pay because replacing cars, homes, devices, identities, and claims support with their own balance sheet is costly and uncertain.
The moat is a mix of brand recognition, regulatory licenses, claims scale, pricing data, distribution breadth, agency relationships, digital direct channels, and bundled products. It is strong but not invincible because Progressive, State Farm, Travelers, Chubb, and regional insurers compete aggressively on price and service.
The thesis fails if recent underwriting profits prove cyclical, catastrophe losses exceed pricing, reserve releases reverse, regulators limit rate increases, or customers switch because affordability gains are not durable.
Management should be judged by underwriting discipline, capital allocation, buyback timing, technology execution, claims service, and whether Transformative Growth can produce profitable market-share gains without relaxing risk selection.
Property and casualty insurance benefits from mandatory auto coverage, home ownership, embedded protection demand, and risk analytics, but climate severity, repair inflation, litigation, and regulation make the industry structurally cyclical.
At about 5.55x TTM EPS and 2.22x book value, the stock looks inexpensive on earnings but not risk-free. Margin of safety depends on whether peak underwriting income normalizes gradually or falls sharply.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL price | $251.46 | StockAnalysis market cap snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $64.73 billion, verified as $251.46 x 257.42 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 257.42 million from WSJ and 257.42093 million in the Q1 2026 10-Q cover data | WSJ key stock data and SEC companyfacts | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $67.685 billion, cross-checked against rounded third-party $67.7 billion figures | Allstate FY2025 Form 10-K via SEC companyfacts | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $10.282 billion, cross-checked against Allstate proxy letter rounded $10.2 billion | Allstate FY2025 Form 10-K and 2026 proxy statement | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and common-share net income | $16.941 billion revenue and $2.428 billion net income applicable to common shareholders | Allstate Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Property-Liability Q1 2026 combined ratio | 82.0 recorded combined ratio and 80.3 underlying combined ratio | Allstate Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | $697 million cash, $85.160 billion investments, and $7.491 billion debt at March 31, 2026 | Allstate Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Book value per common share | $113.52 at March 31, 2026 | Allstate Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend inputs | RSI 76.6, 50-day SMA $223.90, 200-day SMA $210.60 | AltIndex technical analysis snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
This ALL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, filings, technical snapshots, and valuation assumptions, and they can be wrong.
