Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. research snapshot
MRSH AI stock analysis reads Marsh (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.) as a high-quality professional services franchise whose Q2 2026 report, released July 21, 2026, delivered consolidated revenue growth of 6% to $7.4 billion, adjusted EPS growth of 9% to $2.96, and an adjusted operating margin of 29.3%. The stock closed near $189.69 on July 31, 2026 at a market capitalization near $90.52 billion. Underlying revenue growth accelerated to 5% in the quarter, Marsh Management Consulting grew 13% on an underlying basis, and the company raised its 2026 capital deployment plan to about $5.5 billion while increasing the quarterly dividend 10%, its 17th consecutive annual increase. The offsets are a soft global insurance and reinsurance pricing cycle, about $18.9 billion of net debt on company-reported figures, a Hold analyst consensus across 23 analysts, and a valuation near 23x trailing earnings. The page uses a scenario framework, not a price prediction, and is informational only.
Current price
$189.69
Market cap
$90.52 billion
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality advisory franchise facing a soft insurance pricing cycle
Trend status
Above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Marsh is a global leader in risk advice, insurance and reinsurance broking, employee benefits and wealth, and management consulting, with TTM revenue near $27.95 billion and a TTM profit margin near 14%. | High |
| Moat | The moat combines global scale, deep client relationships, proprietary risk and benefits data, specialist talent, carrier and reinsurer relationships, and recurring renewal workflows with retention in the high 90s. | High |
| Management | John Doyle and Mark McGivney ran a solid Q2: revenue up 6%, adjusted EPS up 9% to $2.96, margin expansion, $1.5 billion of first-half buybacks, and a 10% dividend increase, while raising 2026 capital deployment to about $5.5 billion. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $26.98 billion, up 10.3%, and TTM revenue is about $27.95 billion. TTM net income of about $3.98 billion trails FY2025 because of higher interest, amortization, and Thrive program charges. | High |
| Valuation | At about 23.2x TTM EPS, 17.3x forward EPS, 5.97x book value, and 19x free cash flow, the market pays for resilience and steady growth rather than deep value. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The technical setup is improving: price is above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 61, although the stock still sits about 11% below its 52-week high of $213.80. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. A soft P&C and reinsurance pricing cycle, about $18.9 billion of company-reported net debt, and a Hold analyst consensus are the main offsets to a resilient business. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current filings, quote, and valuation context. Lower for future multiples, pricing cycle turns, and consulting demand swings. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The quality of the franchise is clearer than the margin of safety at the current earnings multiple. | Medium |
MRSH AI stock forecast
The MRSH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $189.69 and the 2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $10.45. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish value near $160, a base value near $218, and a bullish value near $271, using adjusted EPS growth of 3%, 7%, and 9% and exit multiples of 14x, 17x, and 20x over three years. These are planning scenarios, not price commitments.
$255 to $275
More likely if the global insurance and reinsurance pricing cycle stabilizes, Marsh Management Consulting keeps growing at high single digits to low double digits, Mercer wealth and health growth holds, margin expansion continues, and the market keeps MRSH near a premium earnings multiple.
$205 to $230
More likely if underlying revenue growth stays near 4% to 5%, adjusted EPS compounds at a low to mid single digit rate, buybacks and the dividend continue, and investors hold the stock near a 17x to 18x forward multiple.
$150 to $170
More likely if property catastrophe reinsurance pricing keeps falling sharply, consulting demand weakens, interest costs stay elevated against the debt load, or investors compress the multiple toward the 14x area implied by the lowest analyst targets.
MRSH AI technical analysis
MRSH AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed near $189.69 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 61 and 14-day ADX near 32 confirming a trending move. A 52-week high of $213.80 remains the overhead resistance. Confirm live chart data before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $189.69 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 477.21 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $180 to $186 | The 20-day moving average was near $182.02 on July 31, 2026, the first natural pullback support zone. |
| Next support | $171 to $177 | The 50-day moving average near $171.60, the 100-day near $171.23, and the 200-day near $177.27 form a support cluster. |
| Near resistance | $191 to $214 | The immediate overhead is the July 31 day high near $191, with the 52-week high of $213.80 as the larger resistance. |
| 20-day moving average | $182.02 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $182.02, below the current price and acting as short-term support. |
| 50-day moving average | $171.60 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $171.60 on July 31, 2026. |
| 100-day moving average | $171.23 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $171.23, near the 50-day line and below the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | $177.27 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $177.27, below the current price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 61, ADX near 32 | 14-day RSI was near 61.49, positive but not overbought, and 14-day ADX near 31.63 on Barchart confirmed a trending move. |
| Volume | About 2.78 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.78 million shares on July 31, 2026, useful for checking breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Moderate | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 36% and a 14-day average true range near $5.25, so position sizing should allow for wider daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $182 | A decisive close below the 20-day moving average near $182 would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the 50-day near $171.60 would turn the medium-term trend bearish. |
MRSH AI trading strategy
The MRSH AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for MRSH to hold above the 20-day moving average near $182 and to build volume on a push toward the $191 area and then the 52-week high near $214, with the 200-day trend line near $177 still supporting the move.
A daily close below the 20-day moving average or a failed attempt near the day high should trigger a stop and review.
If MRSH pulls back toward the $171 to $177 support cluster without a business thesis break, compare the price reaction with the pricing cycle, consulting growth, and debt evidence before acting.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule, because a multi-quarter soft reinsurance pricing cycle can keep the stock range-bound for a long time.
Track Risk and Insurance Services underlying growth, Guy Carpenter pricing headwinds, Consulting growth, Mercer wealth and health momentum, net debt, buybacks, the dividend, and 2026 capital deployment near $5.5 billion.
Reduce confidence if adjusted EPS growth depends mainly on buybacks or if insurance and reinsurance pricing keeps falling faster than new business can offset.
Investment research summary
Clients pay Marsh to place insurance and reinsurance, manage employee benefits, wealth, and people decisions, and solve management problems where specialized risk, strategy, and talent advice matters.
The moat is built on global scale, client relationships, proprietary risk and benefits data, specialist advisory talent, carrier and reinsurer access, trusted brands, and the switching costs of recurring annual renewal workflows.
The thesis can fail if the soft P&C and reinsurance pricing cycle persists, consulting demand slows, net debt stays high while interest costs are elevated, a large acquisition disappoints, or the market compresses the earnings multiple.
Management is judged by organic growth, margin expansion, capital deployment, deal discipline, debt control, buyback timing, dividend growth, and talent retention. The Thrive program targets $400 million of savings against about $500 million of charges.
Risk, reinsurance, benefits, and management consulting are durable needs that grow with economic complexity, and AI is creating new advisory demand, but the global insurance pricing cycle is currently a headwind for brokerage revenue growth.
The current price near 23x trailing earnings gives credit for a resilient franchise. Margin of safety improves if free cash flow keeps growing while net debt falls, or if the stock rerates lower without a thesis break.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH price | $189.69 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $90.52 billion, verified as $189.69 x 477.21 million shares with 0.00% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 consolidated results | $7.4 billion revenue up 6%, 5% underlying growth, adjusted operating income $2.2 billion up 5%, adjusted operating margin 29.3% | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | GAAP EPS $2.63, adjusted EPS $2.96 up 9% year over year | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 21, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment underlying growth | Marsh Risk up 4%, Guy Carpenter down 2%, Mercer up 5%, Marsh Management Consulting up 13% | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| First half 2026 results | Underlying revenue growth 4%, adjusted operating income up 7% to $4.6 billion, adjusted operating margin 30.5%, adjusted EPS up 8% to $6.25 | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.98 billion, up 10.3% from $24.46 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Marsh 2025 annual report cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $4.16 billion, up 2.5% from $4.06 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials and Marsh 2025 annual report cross-check | August 1, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $27.95 billion, net income $3.98 billion, EPS $8.17, free cash flow $4.77 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 477.21 million, down 1.31% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global) | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash about $1.7 billion and total debt about $20.6 billion at June 30, 2026 on company-reported figures, implying net debt near $18.9 billion | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings call and financial_rigor.py exact calculator | July 21, 2026 |
| Dividend | $3.96 annualized per share, about 2.09% yield, quarterly dividend raised 10% to $0.99, 17th consecutive annual increase | Marsh dividend press release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 23.22x trailing PE, 17.29x forward PE, 5.97x book value, 18.99x free cash flow, 5.27% FCF yield, 15.34x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold across 23 analysts with an average target of $205.52, low of $180, median of $201, and high of $238 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global) | July 27, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 15 Hold, 1 Sell out of 23 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 27, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | UBS $216, Evercore ISI $234, Cantor Fitzgerald $218, JPMorgan $212, Mizuho $201, Citi downgraded to Neutral at $200, Wells Fargo $188, Morgan Stanley $180, BofA $182 Underperform | StockAnalysis.com news and forecast latest forecasts | July 27, 2026 |
| Short interest | 6.74 million shares short, 1.41% of shares outstanding, about 2.6 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $28.57 billion with adjusted EPS $10.45, FY2027 revenue $29.95 billion with adjusted EPS $11.41 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 27, 2026 |
| Capital deployment | About $5.5 billion planned for 2026 across dividends, acquisitions, and buybacks, up from $5 billion; $1.5 billion of buybacks in the first half | Marsh Q2 2026 earnings call | July 21, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $156.60 to $213.80 | StockAnalysis.com overview | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $182.02, 50-day SMA near $171.60, 100-day SMA near $171.23, 200-day SMA near $177.27, 14-day RSI near 61.49, 14-day ADX near 31.63 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Ticker context | NYSE ticker is MRSH; the company now brands itself as Marsh | Marsh corporate materials and StockAnalysis.com profile | July 31, 2026 |
This MRSH AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 2, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, insurance pricing, interest costs, or macro conditions change.
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